Comments on: Billy Butler vs. Garrett Jones

By: Meter Mover

Meter Mover — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 08:01:24 +0000

I’m a contrarian, and have never been a big fan of prospect players overhyped by John Q. Public. Yet, in a wrap-around of contrarianism, I did take a swipe at Tommy Hanson last year to spite my league rival, and came up freaking rose pedals. Thank God my rival didn’t have a man crush on David Price. I got lucky. Still, the JQP sheep who follow usually get eaten by the wolves 2 out of every 3 times. I’ll call out Billy Buttbag early in our auction draft, proclaim his outrageous ceiling aloud and watch the sheep Butt heads for him until he is inevitably over-priced. Meanwhile, I’m looking for this year’s Kendry Morales. He is under the radar somewhere for a song. Otherwise, it will be Cantu at the corner for a lot less hassle. As for Garrett Jones, I don’t expect him to be another *Wilford Brimley, although he is much more likely to end up on a Grape Nuts commercial than a Wheatie’s box. (*For guys under 40, Wilford Brimley = semi-successful late bloomer).

By: airlifting

airlifting — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 16:19:12 +0000

i also think butler’s ceiling is a lot more likely to happen than jones’ given their age and history of success. it’s much more likely that butler gets better and jones get worse, rather than both of them repeating their 2009.

By: finite24

finite24 — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 19:48:46 +0000

(how far off is that upside from Miguel Cabrera in round 1… 10 HRs?). I can see Butler posting 4th round value, and I’d be willing to take him late in round 7/early in round 8 (around pick 80).

By: finite24

finite24 — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 19:45:59 +0000

Butler’s ceiling is .325/27/110 and I think he’s a LOT more likely to do that than most here are giving him credit for.

By: Rhymenoceros

Rhymenoceros — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 05:48:46 +0000

In the mocks I’ve done, Butler’s ADP shocks me. Maybe I missed something, but last year was not that noteworthy. Sure, he was hyped coming into the bigs, but personally I believe he’s yet to deliver. So, what does it all mean? I think he’s lucky to hit 25 jacks and 100 RBI’s seems generous. According to Mock Draft Central, he’s going around the same time as Adam Jones, The Dread Pirate, and Gordon Beckham. I’d take any of those three over Butler because their ceiling is much higher. Finally, rooting for the Royals is like a visit to the dentist: painful and anxiety-ridden. At least the dentist gives me a new toothbrush and floss. Whatcha got on that, Butler?

By: Tony

Tony — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 02:14:23 +0000

@finite24: well .300 would be good and anything over is grand, i wouldnt BET THE HOUSE on it.... ya never know tho, he has the type of pedigree to do it.... I'm ready for 2010 to start already. No more debate, show and tell time...

By: finite24

finite24 — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 01:11:48 +0000

I think .300 as Butler’s most likely BA isn’t realistic. His downside is .290. His entire history says .300 is almost a lock. I don’t want his locked stats as a projection. I want the most likely outcome. I’m not gonna go projecting him for .330 as most likely outcome, but if you said over/under 30 points on the difference between their batting averages, I’d take refinance my mortgage and put it all on the over.

By: finite24

finite24 — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 01:06:46 +0000

He did hit .314 after the break and his minor league stats support the likelihood that that will be a legitimate trend going forward. He hit .336 in the minors. To me, Garret Jones isn’t a worthy comparison. I don’t see Jones breaking .270. In fact, I see him more likely to end up around .255-.260 (he has a .258 minor league BA and is going to near 160 Ks in a full season). Butler could outhit him by more 60 pts. I’ll trade 7-8 HRs for 40 pts. in BA, let alone 60.

By: finite24

finite24 — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 00:57:19 +0000

everyone’s stuck on Butler’s power spike needing to surge forward to warrant the draft position. While I am of the persuasion that 51 doubles will only covert to 2-3 more HRs (figure, say 27 total), I also realize that .300 is not his average ceiling. This guy IS Edgar Martinez, which means I wouldn’t blink twice if he hit .345 one of these years. Now might be too early for that, but why can’t he go .328/27/105. I’m banking on at least .320 OR a power spike, and I’ll live and die by that.

By: Grey

Grey — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 00:42:59 +0000

@Shmorgie S. Board: Ha! @BEASTDOG: Yeah, that is ambitious, and not much like either Jones or Butler. But there could be some value from him in steals.

By: BEASTDOG

BEASTDOG — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 00:24:16 +0000

@ Grey….Think I might skip them both and go after deeper sleeper Drew Stubbs. Former #1 pick, hitting leadoff ina decent lineup. Some say the HRs were a fluke but he’s 6’4 with speed. 90-15-75-35. Could hurt you in the BA. Sounds ambitious I know but this guy reminds me of Werth.

By: Shmorgie S. Board

Shmorgie S. Board — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 00:02:08 +0000

@Grey: "After all, he has size C moobs and silver dollar nipples." Let's hope Butler reads this site and will now scream, "Sacagawea!" after every dinger he hits. He could go the "Susan B. Anthony!" route, but come on.

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 22:07:13 +0000

@bobbo: Votto side.

By: bobbo

bobbo — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 22:04:40 +0000

@Grey: 10-team keeper league that uses OBP instead of AVG. I keep 5 offensive guys. Which side do you like: Mauer/Rollins or Votto/Holliday. I am already keeping HanRam, Wright, and BJ Upton. I’m thinking I can probably get Weiters in the draft portion to backfill Mauer. Thanks!

By: airlifting

airlifting — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 19:53:32 +0000

@ThePoonTycoon: again; billy butler was a major leaguer at 21 years old and is coming off a season in which he had 73 XBH. his comps at both b-r and BP are quite good (jim rice, prince fielder, john olerud, dave winfield, boog powell). he’s a former #1 prospect and that chance that he improves is pretty likely. the chance that jones flames out is also pretty likely, being he cracked the majors at 29 and put up a 21% HR/FB. just don’t see it happening again.

blanks is good, and yes, will definitely go later than butler…but snider and rasmus? rasmus hit .160/.219/.255 vs LHP … snider .225/.333/.275 vs LHP and you think they could “easily out produce butler.”? that’s crazy talk, man. guys who can’t make contact struggle…you proved that point when you brought up chris davis. they need to prove to me – and hopefully you – that they can hit LHP before i go and assume they’ll outproduce butler.

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 18:35:35 +0000

@Quinn: I'd take McCann in a vacuum.

By: Quinn

Quinn — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 18:34:10 +0000

@Grey: Keeper question, McCann or Tommy Hanson? Doesn’t it seem like their might be some sneaky catchers available late. If I lose Hanson this year, I probably lose him forever… *tear*

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 18:29:45 +0000

@Stephen: Yeah, or he'll get just under 10% of a Hall of Fame vote in five years. Toss up.

By: Stephen

Stephen — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 18:25:20 +0000

@Grey: I've heard that all those doubles he's hit are going to turn into homers? He's going to be more valuable than Robot Jones this year. Like 35 homers and and 20 steals. Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels.

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 18:20:05 +0000

@Stephen: Yeah, I'm really interested Jim Edmonds. I hear that kid can hit.

By: Stephen

Stephen — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 18:13:47 +0000

Karacrap sighting of the day:

“Hitters to watch in Spring Training”

Jake Fox
Aubrey Huff
Buster Posey
Juan Uribe
Mark DeRosa
Carlos Gomez
Corey Hart
Jose Reyes
Jim Edmonds

Not to mention a brief mention of Johan Santana.

Then on a side blurb he mentions the true hitters that anyone who really follows their fantasy leagues should pay attention too:

Gaby Sanchez
Jeff Clement
Brandon Wood
Jason Heward
Felix Pie/Nolan Reimold (saying that Reimold could play first if Pie starts to hit)

uh, enough. I am getting heartburn just looking at his blog.

By: ThePoonTycoon

ThePoonTycoon — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 17:58:43 +0000

@airlifting: i don't plan on going after jones unless it's in the last couple rounds and i wanna take a cheap gamble on some power with a little speed. i think you are missing the point of the jones v. butler debate. i'd take jones in the 18th round and draft someone else in the 6th round rather than draft butler in the 6th and draft someone else in the 18th. hell, there are young up-and-coming guys i'm gonna target way late in the draft that could easily out produce butler (blanks, rasmus, snider, etc), have the same (or probably higher) ceiling, and i won't be spending a 6-8th round pick to get them. we'd all prefer butler to jones, but the difference in cost might be too much than the difference in production. think about the reynolds v. davis debate last offseason. sure jones could bomb, but so what if he's you 15th+ round pick, at best you are batting 50% that low in the draft and you drop him for the flavor of the week. but if your 6th round pick goes for .300-18-80 (easily within reason for butler) and only has 1B eligibility you are going to really be burned.

By: Tony

Tony — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 17:25:53 +0000

@airlifting: I will say the only good thing about jones is people aren't going buckwild over him. I've seen him still around in the 15th round to the 18th ish. At that point its worth a gamble.

By: airlifting

airlifting — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 16:55:00 +0000

@ThePoonTycoon: contrarily, garrett jones could flash the middling power he's had previously, ISOing closer to his career minor league % of .190 and hit .250 because he'll strike out 150 times. butler may not be 6th round talent; but he's a career .320 hitter in the minors, reached the majors by the time he was 21 and had 73 XBHs last year...he's heading towards his prime while jones is leaving his. i just think there's a pretty high chance for a collpase with jones and a player i'd avoid on draft day.

By: Grey

Grey — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 16:47:57 +0000

@royce!: I might have to use Moobing Violation for a title post if he starts slow. @John Butte: SSDD... Trade for him in June. @Cotton: Ha!

By: Cotton

Cotton — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 16:45:50 +0000

All this talk about moobs is making me nauseous. I gotta look at myself in the mirror and Billy’s sad state doesn’t make me feel any better. He gets paid a lot more than me. Happy Friday everyone!

By: John Butte

John Butte — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 16:39:08 +0000

The Butte Marauders shall reign victorious in Razzball leagues this year.

The only moobs I’m truly loving this year are on Fielder.

Grey, Adam Laroche will be the same player in Arizona that he has been elsewhere, yes? Suck in the first half, quite useful in the second.

By: royce!

royce! — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 16:19:05 +0000

I hope to land Butler in at least one league, if only because I want a team named “Moobin’ On Up!”

Or “Moobing Out”? Maybe “Moobing Violation”? Eh, I’m bored. I think I’ll just draft Jones again.

By: The Chew

The Chew — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 15:57:35 +0000

Thanks for the post Grey. Hopefully readers will see this and think I’ll draft Jones higher than Butler, which means I can grab him later as a CI. Probably not, but maybe…

to all guys/1 girl reading that’s in my RCL, Jones is a top 100 player!

By: Jay

Jay — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 15:54:23 +0000

@Grey: Well that makes me feel better about my fantasy prowess. Thanks Grey.