There’s SAGNOF – now there’s BGLIF or BABIPGLIF.

B(ABIP)GLIF = BABIP’s Got Little Face. As you delve into players for your drafts and you see a surprising glorious batting average from last year, ensure you validate it. Use Razzball Fantasy Baseball BABIP vs. Average Comparison. I’ll point out some sleepers below using this method.

Let’s get this part out of the way (feel free to skip it). I’m using an updated version of xBABIP (expected batting average on balls in play) = 0.392 + (LD% x 0.287709436) + ((GB% – (GB% * IFH%)) x -0.152 ) + ((FB% – (FB% x HR/FB%) – (FB% x IFFB%)) x -0.188) + ((IFFB% * FB%) x -0.835) + ((IFH% * GB%) x 0.500). I’m also using how power and speed effect BABIP according to Stephen Staude’s newest xBABIP formula = 0.083*HR/FB + 0.1*LD% – 0.55*PU% – 0.013*OFFB% + 0.007*Spd*GB% + 0.283. I’ve bolded the Homerun per Flyball and Speed*Groundball factors because I’ll be delving into both to give “BABIP potential” some face. I’ll highlight some sleepers and validate some 2013 surprises. Oh yeah – I z-score all of the factors, add in the adjustment/effect on xBABIP (or batting average as it relates to the discipline score) and sum ‘em up for the BGLIF Score.

Disclaimer: It’s worth noting that if I wasn’t selling thermal packaging during the day, I would delve even further and include Batted Ball Location (Pull/Center/Opposite) and Batted Ball Distance, but companies need to keep stuff cold! In a small way, this stuff is still incorporated because I am looking at Jeff Zimmerman’s Expanded 2013 Infield Shift Data (they’re going to shift against pull hitters if they’re smart like the Cubs or not if they’re dumb like the Phillies – a 33 point difference in BABIP between these two teams) as well as Homerun per Flyball and Isolated Power, which links up to average distance. I know that I over-parenthesis things…don’t get lost within the parenthesis.

Now the good stuff… Last year, the following players worth listing for fantasy purposes had top 50 BABIP differentials i.e. an expected BABIP well beyond their actual BABIP meaning they are likely to rebound or at worst maintain.

• Listed because of their speed score in conjunction with groundball rates: Cameron Maybin, Josh Rutledge Alcides Escobar, which is ironic because he was on the other side of this equation after 2012 with his .344 BABIP.
• Aging Yankees who were just bad in limited plate appearances: Derek Jeter and pull-happy Mark Teixeira.
• Chalk it up to their first go-round and speed scores: Kolten Wong, Jake Marisnick, Jackie Bradley.
• Chalk it up to …the fact that they’re catchers? Ryan Hanigan, Yasmani Grandal (love that 1.00 BB/K ratio), Wilson Ramos (FB% away from 30 HR potential) and cue Brittany Spears’ I Still Believe…Hit Me Baby One More Time – Jesus Montero (who I have signed to a 6 year contract in one league…ha!).
• And we’ll complete this list with 3 guys I’m excited out of my mind about that are on this list: Edwin Encarnacion, Khris Davis, and Xander Bogaerts. Khris Davis HR/FB’ed his way onto this list, but there’s some speed there as well. Edwin Encarnacion actually had a batting average 25 points higher than his BABIP, which you don’t see ever. The shift kills him (16th worst), but the discipline is elite (4th best incorporating both BB/K and Ct%). Xander held his own (.250 BA based on a .323 BABIP), but he’s got the approach, power and some speed to ensure a .320+ BABIP with a BA approaching .270+.

Why do we care about BABIP? In conjunction with discipline, it basically outputs batting average so in tiered fashion, here are the top 25 BABIP potential’s by power, speed and shift data (as mentioned in the skippable section) as well as discipline. I’m going to omit the speed-only guys blatantly on this list due to their speed*groundball scores:

Tier 1: Carlos Gonzalez (2.40), Jean Segura (2.23), Starling Marte (2.14).

Tier 2: Khris Davis (2.08), Pedro Alvarez (1.92).

Tier 3: Coco Crisp (1.68), Jacoby Ellsbury (1.58), Adam Eaton (1.53), Will Venable (1.48), Mike Trout (1.47), Carlos Gomez (1.43).

Tier 4: Jose Bautista (1.23), Christian Yelich (1.19), Bryce Harper (1.09), Paul Goldschmidt (1.01), Shin-Soo Choo (.94), Hunter Pence (.92), Desmond Jennings (.88), Domonic Brown (.87).

Just outside of the top 50 BWF scores: David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Alex Rios, Will Middlebrooks, Adam Jones, Alfonso Soriano & Miguel Cabrera.

Power-Speed Combos – ensuring BABIP potential and some SLEEPERS!

Only Carlos Gonzalez and Carlos Gomez had top 50 power and speed scores according to this approach.  Here are guys with top 113 power (HR/ISO & FB) and speed (Spd & GB) combos:

Jackie Bradley (top 50 speed/top 100 power).

*SLEEPER: Khris Davis (top 113 speed/top 50 power).

CoCo Crisp – top 113 in all 4 categories (power, speed, discipline & shift).

Will Venable (top 50 speed/top 113 power).

Mike Trout (top 100 speed/top 50 power).

Bryce Harper (top 100 speed/top 100 power).

*SLEEPER if he somehow consumes time at 2B for the Marlins: Derek Dietrich (top 113 speed/top 113 power).

Shin-Soo Choo – top 113 in all 4 categories.

David Wright  – top 100 in all 4 categories.

Adam Jones (top 113 speed/top 100 power).

*SLEEPER: Chris Dickerson (top 113 speed/top 100 power).

*Still somehow a SLEEPER: Michael Cuddyer (top 100 speed/top 100 power).

Hanley Ramirez (top 100 speed/top 50 power).

Yasiel Puig (top 100 speed/top 100 power).

Check out some other potential sleepers using BWF (BABIP With Face) Scores:

## 31 Responses (Jump straight to the comment form)

1. Joe says:

wow. so much math.

• Dano says:

@Joe: yeah! moving forward i’ll be less mathy and more mouthy

• Joe says:

@Dano: it really is impressive stuff. I’m just happy that i drafted Khris Davis and i was stuck with Wilson Ramos by default as the last catcher drafted.

• Dano says:

@Joe: WillRam is golden. 3 relatively big IF’s but IF each one happens, he can go 65-25-85 but avg might drop…
a) IF his flyball rate increases his HR rate will sky rockets (flyball and homerun average distance is top notch)…BABIP & AVG would drop though
b) IF he bats 6th-7th and not 8th he could approach 90 RBI and this is all IF…
c) he stays healthy

2. Nico says:

This is awesome. Before I discovered Razzball, and in a years when I usually have more time, I create a BABIP differential spreadsheet for both hitters and pitchers to find value. A few years ago, it helped me land Hiroki Kiroda and Max Scherzer in the extreme late rounds of a draft. You’ve taken that idea to the next level. I live for this stuff!

3. Ghost of the Disappeared says:

Getting this on all pages banner

Notice: add_option was called with an argument that is deprecated since version 2.3 with no alternative available. in /home/razzball/public_html/wp-includes/functions.php on line 3008

Thought you might be interested

• Grey says:

We’re looking into it, T Moore… Thanks!

4. steve says:

i think it’s great that razz is posting advance stat-based articles, but lots of your numbers-heavy posts are a mess to read

• Joe says:

@steve: i hate free in depth analysis.

• Joe Mama says:

@Joe: sounds like you also hate free feedback

5. Tehol Beddict says:

Dano, you’re a god damn genius! I enjoyed this, as sleepers are my thang. Also a great movie. Kudos

• Dano says:

@Tehol Beddict: thanksir – man – i thought i broke the site for a second. looks like it’s fixed.

what movie reference? (on my phone) – did i forget my own content already or am i so damn good i inherently associated a good movie reference?

6. -MBP says:

First time, long time…

Any thoughts on my OBP/QS roto team that just drafted last night?

Carlos Santana
Chris Davis
Dustin Pedroia
Aramis Ramirez
Alexei Ramirez
Wil Myers
Carlos Beltran
Willin Rosario
Will Venable
Evan Gattis
Will Middlebrooks

Danny Salazar
Tony Cingrani
Andrew Cashner
AJ Griffin
Yordano Ventura
Ian Kennedy

Jim Henderson
Huston Street
Cody Allen
Drew Smyly

• Dano says:

@-MBP: You have Salazar & Waino so you won that! + potential in YorDANO and Cashner. Don’t love Griffin or Kennedy. I would think you will wind up close to last in OBP, but should have solid offensive counting stats otherwise.

7. Ghost of the Disappeared says:

Dano: I am experiencing a problem (really an issue with the ESPN draft template )

Cuddyer is not being shown as a first base man any longer. I realized this as I tried to move him in a draft to another position. Then I found that also, it seems there is no mechanism to adjust your line-up in-draft at all.

Meaning your lineup is what ESPN decides to designate it as – even for multi-position players. Further meaning, if you draft someone at a position, he may be sent to clog another position for which you had other plans.

This is important as we are now drafting “post” opening day, So, your line-up at draft may have already scored points (both good and bad) and you are not allowed to adapt to this.

The draft line-up IS your “to date” line up for scoring purposes and you have no control over it.

Am I doing something wrong or missing the tool for making in draft line up adjustments???

Signed: Frustrated and desperate to do a good job in front of my RazzBall heartthrob “The Star of the Show” -Jay Wrong, come RB draft day tomorrow.

PS Which reminds me of something can not keep a secret any longer. And I have to tell someone who will appreciate it – I thought, you might be that someone, Dano.

I will be dressed perfectly for the draft.

I have purchased a lovely designed long sleeved bowling shirt in my team colors of teal, black, white and gold – My team is the Great Valley MAGPIES – these are its natural colors.

I have had added broad golden epaulets with a recapitulation of the same gold braid tassels, found on the epaulet, as a tastefully short fringe down the sleeves (Perfection!!!). The team name, MAGPIES, is on the front in bold gold letters and my sponsor’s name, JET AGE CONSTRUCTION, is emblazoned across the back is the same lettering. A special touch, that.

And I have been lucky enough to find a beautiful pair iridescent spandex tights that is overflowing with subtle highlights and compliments to the Magpie color palate found in the bowling shirt top.

Together, they are simply scrumptious. Isn’t this wonderful?

I’m so excited about it! It is hard not to put it on right now. But, I want it perfect for my fantasy draft – just like everything else will be – if I have my way about it.

Got to go, Lot’s to do – to be ready tomorrow, for, Jay!

• Dano says:

@Ghost of the Disappeared: i am so uncomfortable….moreso about what to do about cuddyer. is it maybe because the season started and lineups are locked?

• Ghost of the Disappeared says:

@Dano:

Yeah probs. And don’t Jay about my outfit. It’s a surprise

8. Will says:

The “Razzball Fantasy Baseball BABIP vs. Average Comparison” link has “mailto:” appended to the beginning.

It opened in my mail client. Chopping the “mailto:” off goes to the right URL:

http://razzball.com/playerrater-babipvavg

9. costaricanchata says:

are you sure that nicky noonan’s numbers are corrrect ?
something seems off .

10. Mike says:

I hope you can tell me if i can win my ffb leage with this team we have 15 teams in this leage and it is a standard leage with obp. Saves.I will go from my catcher then 1st2nd3rd ba\$e then ss of. Then my sp and rps. Darnaud a-gon gyrko josh donaldson andrellton simmons bruce, beltran, de aza, bench and flex players are alonso heisey , mark reynolds, schoop, oswaldo arcia, sp… Kershaw, zimmerman, archer, peavey, gee, bud norris, rp k janson, c janson , jim henderson and bobby parnell, k rod.. Its a very deeep leage could my bench have a chance of breaking out or am i ust screwed in outfield position.. There is nobody pretty much in free agent uggla and ludwick are out there and henders9n alverez is too

• Mike says:

@Mike: should i try and trade for a player i follow you page razzball for baseball and football and your advice would mean alot if u can read it i get made fun of for my grammer cause my phone sucks and never writes what i want it to i can try to set my lineup in a way it is easier to read maybe that will help cause my phone is working bettrr now..w
Darnaud
A-gon
Gyrko
J donaldson
A simmons
J bruce
Beltran
De aza
Flex/bench
Heisey
Mark reynolds
Yonder
J schoop
O arcia
Sp
Kershaw
Zimmerman
Archer
Peavey
Gee
Bud norris
Rp
K janson
Casey janson
HHenderson
Parnel

K rod
I can trade kjanson austin jackson should i do thator

• Mike says:

@Mike: my phone is acting up it was k janson and i will get austn jackson should i take that trade p

• dano says:

@Mike: I like Bruce and beltran for counting stats (hr/rbi)…prob not obp. If I were you I’d like to upgrade offense and stream/look at deep sp options (just put up a deep impact post yesterday). I don’t think Ajax is much OF a obp asset either but you do have 4 closers. Try to trade Parnell…some concerns with life/velocity of fb.

11. Luis says:

• dano says:

@Luis: gimme an hour or so. Thx

12. Luis says: