Comments on: Best and Worst Values by Position

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 07:05:22 +0000

@Nick: those leagues have been around for a while now. grey did the interview so he'd be the person to ask on what went wrong....

By: Nick

Nick — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 21:57:49 +0000

Very interesting….
Do they do this every year? I’m also curious as to what went wrong in that interview.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 19:25:21 +0000

Ha. After last year’s interview with Matthew Berry, I have a feeling they wouldn’t accept.

Below are links to recent Tout Wars and LABR results (two of the more high exposure ‘expert’ leagues) that we’re still trying to worm our way into. Based on what I’ve seen, Jason Grey is really good. Nate Ravitz had a good year last year. Matthew Berry and Eric Karabell are question marks.

Tout Wars – NL
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsAa9oCjuqbwcHVheWRiVDN6czJOU2FORWF1NHdPTGc&hl=en

Tout Wars AL
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsAa9oCjuqbwcHVheWRiVDN6czJNUHNHbmRYMEZGZHc&hl=en

Tout Wars Mixed
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsAa9oCjuqbwdG1hSW9KQWxnU2ZGenVXUENSWUdmV1E&hl=en

LABR – AL
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/fantasywindup/post/2009/10/labr—al-recap-grey-gallops-to-another-title/1

LABR – NL
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/fantasywindup/post/2009/10/labr-nl-recap-rookie-stuns-the-veterans/1

By: Nick

Nick — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 14:28:53 +0000

@Grey/Rudy
I vote that you guys challenge the ESPN writers to a one-year league.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 22:16:12 +0000

@Jo: Makes some sense. It's hard to say exactly why. I know there's a historical assumption that 2B/SS is something to draft early b/c of scarcity even though 25 HR guys like Uggla and Stewart can be had several rounds later. I think 3B always has more depth than people think. Guys like Chipper, Cantu, Beltre, etc. bring some more risk and are less sexy picks but can still put up solid stats. @Pugsly: Um, thanks? The point isn't that every hitter is overvalued - the point is trying to find bargains so you're getting the most of your draft. Sorry you can't find any value in this post... @GTS: haven't updated since the injury. @herschel: My gut says Tulo but my head's overruling it after seeing the Point Shares. Sandoval is valued similarly to Tulo and an 8th round pick is more valuable than an 18th round pick. @boom boom bynum: Yes on Braun vs. A-Rod. Gonz/Zimmerman would be a solid 2nd/3rd round. Wait on 2B... @incognithole: That would be a tough position. I'd take Lincecum. J-Upside and Crawford would work okay too.

By: boom boom bynum

boom boom bynum — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 20:27:05 +0000

So Rudy, are you saying you value Braun higher than A-Rod as pick #3. If I take Braun with the third pick, would A-Gonz (2) and Zimmerman (3) be reasonable? Then wait for 2B (Stewart)?

By: herschel

herschel — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 20:18:53 +0000

@Rudy – 5 x 5 12 team keeper league (only 2 keepers per team) and we lose the round pick of where the keeper was drafted. Who would you rather keep, Tulo in round 8 or Sandoval at round 18 (Kemp in round 11 is my other keeper). Thanks in advance.

By: GTS

GTS — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 20:12:19 +0000

Rudy – why is Joe Nathan still valued at $19?

By: incognithole

incognithole — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 19:57:41 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: Final question about my upcoming draft and thanks again for your help and time.

assume pujols, hanram, arod, utley, braun, kemp, 4 1B’s, longoria, wright, holliday and either kinsler or lincecum are taken who do you take at #15 and youve already taken a 1B in rd1…..

the best guy on the rankings are tulo, but clearly hes being overvalued. I dont want kinsler/lincecum/mauer for the reasons mentioned on this site and sizemore is a little bit of a risk for early 2nd rd.

Ideally Id like to land a 3B or kemp/holliday at #15, but if i dont get them id be inclined to take J-upside….who would you take and why? Thanks again….is there a limit on comments/posts by commenters?

By: Pugsly

Pugsly — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 19:25:43 +0000

I love this site, but this has to be the most pointless article I have ever read. You have listed just about every single top 50 player as overvalued. Clearly you guys are running out of topics to write about.

By: tyler

tyler — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 19:07:43 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: Good deal, thanks much. I agree with you that LPP's system undervalues MI/C's at the expense of 1B/OF.

By: Jo

Jo — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 19:06:07 +0000

Hey Rudy, I noticed something in a draft last night that might explain why 3B is ranked too high this year. My hypothesis is that, when a position has attractive talent buried deep within, people will hold off on the upper tiers to draft that talent and spend their earlier picks on other positions. But at some positions, everyone in the draft is shooting for late round talent because they are all waiting for others to go off the board so they can draft the later guys. The opposite of this works with the 3b position this year. There is no good talent buried deep so people jump on the guys they like. Does that make sense?

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:53:23 +0000

@tyler: Tango's contest last year was a pretty good one but it had its conceits - e.g., lumped 2B/SS/3B into one position, 1B/DH together, etc. I haven't determined the best methodology for comparing systems just yet. I like LPP though i disagree with his use of positional VORP vs. positional average because I think all positions (except Catcher) tend to regress to the same 'replacement level' as the surplus of solid 1B/OF will get used up in UTIL. @Dean: It'll be hard to get a Zimmerman by trade yet unless that guy's team has a glaring need you're filling. Look for the teams hurting in speed and hopefully you can trade some of it in a month or so... @NoonTime: One note would be that the best bargain by total +/- will likely lead to a lot of lower draft picks. It might pay to look at best values per round - taking into account that there's a law of diminishing returns with SPs. (I'd cap it at one per 4 rounds or so. (Note: this is one of the tougher things with testing a ratings system. the ideal tool would adjust players' values based on your current roster and the available players to be drafted. maybe something lou and i can collaborate on for War Room 2011.

By: tyler

tyler — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:51:38 +0000

Rds 4, 5 are bad value, while 8 and 9 are good value…bet that’s reflective of when SP’s are taken.

By: NoonTime

NoonTime — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:43:56 +0000

More fun with Value – Again looking as each round of 12 based on ADP. Summing the Value in the each round and calculating the Average Value in the round:

ROUND TOTAL +/- AVERAGE of ROUND
1 -114 -9.5
2 -215 -17.9
3 -117 -9.8
4 -307 -25.6
5 -272 -22.7
6 -83 -6.9
7 -214 -17.8
8 42 3.5
9 151 12.6
10 -323 -26.9
11 -51 -4.3
12 -245 -20.4
13 84 7.0
14 -73 -6.1
15 -630 -52.5
16 -149 -12.4
17 -971 -80.9
18 -332 -27.7
19 -188 -15.7
20 -995 -82.9
21 -374 -31.2
22 -1300 -108.3
23 -1466 -122.2
24 -1265 -105.4
25 -793 -66.1
26 -1098 -91.5
27 -177 -14.8
28 -197 -16.4

By: Lava

Lava — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:35:01 +0000

@NoonTime: Interesting. So basically, the opposite of the drafting hitters early strategy. I know point shares values pitchers pretty highly, but I wonder if the statistics are responding to the current trend of building teams?

By: NoonTime

NoonTime — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:33:12 +0000

@NoonTime: EDIT: Each Group Of 12 By ADP..... not RANK

By: NoonTime

NoonTime — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:23:44 +0000

The MLB 12 Team – 2010 Razzball Projected Point Shares – All Best Value From Each Group Of 12 By Rank

C – Carlos Ruiz (253-264) -130
1B – Albert Pujols (1-12) +0
2B – Martin Prado (205-216) +24
3B – Edwin Encarnacion (241-252) -34
SS – Marco Scutaro (193-204) -17
CI – Adam LaRoche (169-180) +84
MI – Everth Cabrera (217-228) +93
OF – Carlos Beltran (85-96) +53
OF – Jay Bruce (109-120) +38
OF – Julio Borbon (145-156) +20
OF – Ryan Ludwick (157-168) +77
OF – Garrett Jones (181-192) +44
U – Alcides Escobar (229-240) +43
SP – Roy Halladay (13-24) +19
SP – Zack Greinke (25-36) +24
SP – Dan Haren (37-48) +35
SP – Javier Vazquez (49-60) +46
SP – Josh Beckett (73-84) +50
SP – Chad Billingsley (121-132) +85
RP – Jonathan Broxton (61-72) +54
RP – Heath Bell (97-108) +69
RP – Huston Street (133-144) +90

By: Grey

Grey — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:13:59 +0000

@GTS: Jones, Rollins, Upton, Votto... *****THERE’S A NEW POST FOR FOLLOWUPS FOR ME.******

By: GTS

GTS — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:09:23 +0000

@Grey: This is the group I'm choosing keepers from.

By: Grey

Grey — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:07:32 +0000

@NoonTime: That looks terrible. @Eddy: Thanks for the update! @mapwheel: Dry rub. @The Abusement Park: Looks like you're punting average, speed and your middle of the pitching staff isn't that pretty. *****THERE'S A NEW POST FOR FOLLOWUPS FOR ME.******

By: Cheese

Cheese — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 17:58:21 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: Thanks Rudy, much appreciated. I've read over how point shares works so many times, but I don't know why I just don't understand it 100%. Can you sum it up for me in a different way that would help me understand what I'm looking at? Thanks.

By: sean

sean — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 17:54:24 +0000

@NoonTime: Looks like the 9th place team to me.

By: The Abusement Park

The Abusement Park — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 17:49:59 +0000

The Abusement Park ™
1. (3) Hanley Ramírez
2. (22) Kevin Youkilis
3. (27) Mark Reynolds
4. (46) Curtis Granderson
5. (51) Cliff Lee
6. (70) Yovani Gallardo
7. (75) Nelson Cruz
8. (94) Torii Hunter
9. (99) Matt Wieters
10. (118) Alfonso Soriano
11. (123) Jered Weaver
12. (142) Francisco Cordero
13. (147) Jason Heyward
14. (166) Ben Sheets
15. (171) Brandon Webb
16. (190) Michael Cuddyer
17. (195) Jonathan Sánchez
18. (214) Johnny Cueto
19. (219) Garrett Jones
20. (238) Kevin Gregg
21. (243) Matt Lindstrom
22. (262) Scott Sizemore

12 team h2h. How do you think I did? I think my team is pretty awesome

By: mapwheel

mapwheel — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 17:47:35 +0000

Grey – I just bought a side of ribs for dinner tonight. Would you recommend barbecuing them or doing more of a Memphis-style dry rub?

By: Eddy

Eddy — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 17:46:44 +0000

“JUPITER, Fla. — Marlins All-Star Hanley Ramirez was scratched from the lineup on Monday with a tight right groin. The ailment is not believed to be serious, and the 26-year-old shortstop is listed as day-to-day.”

Though I doubt I’ll get slotted to draft at pick #2, this sucks as a Marlins fan :/

By: NoonTime

NoonTime — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 17:46:28 +0000

The MLB 12 Team – 2010 Razzball Projected Point Shares – All Value Team

C – Jeff Clement +169
1B – Adam LaRoche +84
2B – Crapolanco +88
3B – Casey Blake +74
SS – Evercab +93
CI – Kevin Kouzmanoff +72
MI – Skip Schumaker +83
OF – Elijah Dukes +183
OF – Luke Scott +127
OF – Ryan Raburn +123
OF – Delmon Young +120
OF – Lastings Milledge +116
U – David DeJesus +115
SP – Colby Lewis +204
SP – Kris Medlen +190
SP – Rich Harden +140
SP – Kenshin Kawakami +124
SP – Joe Blanton +120
SP – Jon Garland +111
RP – Takashi Saito +186
RP – Rafael Betancourt +180
RP – Sergio Romo +167

By: Grey

Grey — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 17:40:56 +0000

@GTS: Is this your team before or after keepers? Is this the group you're choosing from for keepers?

By: Dean

Dean — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 17:37:15 +0000

@Rudy Gamble: Yeah I hate Figgins and Roberts, I'm pretty annoyed that I picked them actually. I feel a little better with Stewart behind them though. Kinda hate Lee too but it was either him or wind up with Butler as my 1B at that point. Do you think there's a realistic trade I can make involving Figgins/Roberts and Napoli/Montero for someone like Zimmerman?

By: GTS

GTS — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 17:27:03 +0000

Grey – I’m taking over a last place team in a 4 keeper H2H league. I managed to talk my way into keeping only 2 players of the total 4 and grabbing any 2 players pre-draft that are left over after everyone selects their keepers. I could keep anywhere from 2 to 4 players. The league is 6×5 (+OBP and W-L instead of just W). C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3OF, 2UTIL, 5SP, 2RP? Advice?

Atkins, Garrett 3B BAL
Blalock, Hank 1B TEX
Damon, Johnny LF DET
Jones, Adam CF BAL
Loney, James 1B LA
Lowell, Mike 3B BOS
Martin, Russell C LA
Polanco, Placido 2B PHI
Ramirez, Manny LF LA
Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI
Upton, B.J. CF TB
Votto, Joey 1B CIN
Weeks, Rickie 2B MIL
Young, Delmon LF MIN

Capps, Matt RP WAS
Fuentes, Brian RP ANA
Kazmir, Scott SP ANA
Lackey, John SP BOS
Millwood, Kevin SP BAL
Peavy, Jake SP CHW
Scherzer, Max SP DET
Weaver, Jered SP ANA
Zambrano, Carlos SP CHC