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I’ve added average draft position (ADP) from MockDraftCentral.com to the 5×5 10/12/14/16 Team Point Shares tables. (NL-only Point Shares are also up for 8, 10, and 12 Team.)

As expected, pitchers are valued higher in Point Shares vs. actual drafts.  There’s plenty of reasons for this – riskier pitchers are undervalued, (mis)perceptions, blah blah blah – but all that matters is finding the best bargains across all positions.

Shorthand for the below.  Any player with a positive (+##) is being picked that many picks after their estimated value.  Any player with a negative (-##) is being drafted ahead of their value.  Plus is good value.  Minus is bad value.

Here are some observations for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B.  I’ll cover the other positions in a 2nd post:

First Basemen

The top 3 after Pujols (Fielder, Howard, Cabrera) are drafted at slight premiums (5-16 picks ahead of estimated value) but the next group of Teixeira, A-Gonz, Morneau, and Votto come at a higher premium (30-55 picks).

The biggest premium is going for Mark Teixiera (50 picks above value – 6th vs. 56th).  My CHONE/ZiPS-derived estimates are 529/89/30/106/1/.284.  Last year, he hit 609/103/39/122/2/.292.  It’s possible that the HR-lift of Yankee Stadium still isn’t fully accounted for in the projections but the biggest difference is 80 ABs which drives up the other counting stats.  In 2007-2008, M-Teix averaged 534 ABs.  The Yanks now have a decent backup 1B in Nick Johnson that can spell M-Teix.  I’d shy on bullishness for Teixeira but I still think he’s below the top 3 above.

So what should you do?  Ideally, grab one of the top 3.  If not, I’d hope one of the next 4 fall far enough so that you’re getting a better deal falling back on better valued Lance Berkman (-8), Derrek Lee (+8), and Adam LaRoche (+84).  LaRoche has an average ADP of 180 where his Point Shares value is at #96 – driven by solid stats across the board.  He’s been a solid 25/80 guy for a while but hitting in a better lineup and park might boost him to 100 RBI level (ZiPS thinks so at least)

Second Basemen

No bargains in the top half of the draft for 2Bs.  Utley, Kinsler, Phillips, Pedroia, Cano and Roberts are all going 11-30 picks above their value with Brian Roberts being the highest.  With reports he has a bad back, I’d stay far away from him this year.  Aaron Hill (-94) and Ben Zobrist (-108) are being drafted on last year’s stats vs. their likely regressed stats. Howie Kendrick (-110) is being drafted on his never-delivered promise.

The best bargains are all players that are weak in one dimension or less than inspiring overall:  Uggla (-2), Ian Stewart (+4),  Polanco (+88), Weeks (+40), Prado (+22), Kelly Johnson (+18).

My advice would be to punt 2B to later rounds unless you can good value for Utley or one of the other top 6 (besides Roberts).  Ian Stewart looks nice if your team is short on power.  A Polanco or Kelly Johnson looks better if your scavenging for a player late in the draft.

Shortstops

Hanley at #2 is fine value.  The next 10 rounds have only one SS at above-average value – Jose ReyesIf he’s healthy, he’s set to be the 18th most valuable player in the draft but his ADP has been at #23.  Tulo (-30), J-Roll (-38),  and Jeter (-83) are all overvalued in drafts.

If you don’t go for Hanley or Reyes, wait until after the 10th round and there are some good bargains – mostly speed guys.  Everth Cabrera (+93), Asdrubal Cabrera (+12), Erick Aybar (+14), Ryan Theriot (+60), and Alcides Escobar (+43) are all great values.

Later round bad values include the always-overvalued Stephen Drew (-69) and Elvis Andrus (-49).

Third Basemen

This position has almost no good values in the whole draft (unless you consider late-round fliers Casey Blake and Kevin Kouzmanoff exciting).  Almost all the 3Bs are being picked 20-40 picks ahead of their value.  Not sure why this is.

I think this is a position that you should reach for but just try to get the best bargain.  I think Point Shares is overvaluing David Wright and undervaluing A-Rod (low playing time estimate from BP) so here are my amended 3B value picks:

– A-Rod – 4th pick or later.  His ADP is #3 but I think Braun is better.
– Wright/Longoria – Anytime after pick #12.  I’m taking one of the top 4 1B instead of them.
– Reynolds – Anytime after pick #25.  #18 ADP too high for me given the unreliable SBs and AVG.
– Zimmerman – Anytime after pick #33.  Zimmerman in the 3rd round is a solid pick in my eyes.
– Sandoval/Youk – Anytime after pick #50.
– Aramis – Anytime after #65
– M Young / Beckham – Anytime after #90
– Figgins – Anytime after #120 (yeah, pretty much saying don’t draft him.  Kills you in HR/RBI for 3B)

From Around The Web

  1. Steve says:
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    Great stuff Rudy. For those of us who are pretty solid adherents to the Albright 300, there is some real food for thought here – the type of contrast that of course makes Razzball what it is.

    All that said, you’ve just thrown a bit of a spanner in the works of a slow draft I’ve just started ;-)

  2. Chris says:
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    6 keepers one per position, need some help picking as the team is fairly good. I am thinking my keepers are mccann, david wright, carlos lee, beltran, asdrubal cabrera and verlander. I also have derek lee, prado, peralta, dye, francouer, cody ross, matt cain, and gavin floyd. I am torn about derek lee but there are some quality 1b in the draft like butler, dunn, votto, mark reynold, konerko, etc so i was thinking cabrera over lee based on the quality in the draft coming up.

  3. Thanks for the post, but it at times seems to conflict with the top 100 board.

  4. mikey boy324 says:
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    rudy whats the earliest you would draft reyes ive done a couple of mocks since the news and hes been falling to the 5-6 rounds?

  5. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    This is all very good food for thought. My question: If ADPs are generally out of step with actual value (per Point Shares), doesn’t it all kind of come out in the wash?

    By which I mean, if a 3B who’s really a 4th round value is getting taken in Round 2, and an SP who’s a 2nd round value is being taken in round 4, you can still get both, if not at their “true” draft positions.

    That said, I do appreciate how clearly this points out, say, the over-valued-ness of the Brian Roberts-type players. I think I have finally come around to the Gospel of Kelly Johnson. (If not Ricky Weeks.)

    Amen.

  6. Matt B says:
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    For a 12-Team, weekly h2h (5×5):
    1) How do you rank the following young OF in a keeper league?
    Adam Jones, Jay Bruce, Nolan Reimold, Hunter Pence, Shin-Soo Choo
    2) Take any of them before Werth in a keeper draft?

  7. Maitland says:
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    Would you think it too high to take Zimmerman with the 2nd pick of the 3rd round in a 12 team league?

    I have the 2nd overall pick and my 2nd/3rd rounds have been awkward in the couple mocks I’ve done. I want to go Hanley-Pedroia(singles and doubles as categories)-best available, but, the way thirdbase lines up, it seems like my mocks wind up looking better taking Zimmerman there.

  8. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    @Maitland: I’m in a 16 team H2H league, and I’m drafting 16th. I plan on taking Zimmerman at the 16/17 turn. Call me crazy, but at no other point in the draft do I see myself getting good value on a 3B. It’s also hard to pass up 100/30/100/.300 for a 3B.

  9. Back to Minors says:
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    anyone know of any good tourney pickem advice sites? you know…like a razzball for tourney hoops?

  10. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Excellent stuff Rudy. This is the kind of information I need……useful. I may drop Teix a bit now, but have been getting Laroche LATE in mocks as a Utility filler. He’s on fire so far in ST and I’m really starting to like the makeup of that team in Arizona.

    2b, Stewart is still the late guy. In Yahoo, Beckham has shown to be a bargain too. I’m starting to target him as my starting 2b, along with Stewart.

    SS, I love Asdrubal late. Will give me R’s, BA, and SB’s. I’ll take that as late as he can be grabbed.

    3b….this position scares me, so I’m investing in it early. I want A-Rod, Longoria, Wright, Zimm, or Youk, in that order. Sandoval would be a last ditch effort but I’d rather have one of the others. If you have a power hitting stud 3b you’re ahead of the curve imo. This is the most scarce position on the fantasy field beyond that matters the most.

    Thanks for the effort Rudy.

  11. madx34 says:
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    in a 16 teamer and picking 5th and 28th, i am thinking i can get braun at 5 and, based on the shallowness of 3rd base, coming back with zimmerman at 28. thoughts?

  12. Tony says:
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    @madx34: not if you’re in the same league as cheese! HA!

  13. mrmalcs says:
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    Rudy, Flipping awesome post!

  14. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: i’ve always been on the rickie weeks train. been burned by him so many times and keep coming back for me. he’s in the mix, along with possibly beckham, stewart, and, if they all go earlier than i’d like, sizemore this year.

  15. In the tumultuous 3B position, how did Aramis Ramirez rate? Some perts seem to be ranking & taking him among your upper tier.
    Thanks Rudy, great useful stuff!

  16. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    GREY OR RUDY,10 team keeper,$300,7×7 with obp and k,s for hitters and games started-W-L-K-S-ERA-WHIP FOR PITCHERS,can keep 6,bruce 13,c davis 10,raj davis 5,

  17. incognithole says:
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    Good stuff Rudy. Have a few questions on it if you dont mind (12 team 5×5).

    Are you sure Teix is supposed to be included in the A-Gon tier of 1B and not w/howard, cabrera, prince? I’ve never seen him picked in mocks anywhere outside the top 15 let alone the 30-50s (6 vs 56th).

    Do you consider going for cano/philips/pedroia “good value” with either the 34th/39th pick (3rd/4th rds)? And would you use the other pick to select the “above-average valued” Reyes too If he’s the best player out there? Chances are I will have a 1B and 3B/OF by then.

    Finally, do you also like holliday more than J-upside at #15?

    Thanks again for the savvy advice

  18. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    rest of list from above post,n feliz 5,gallardo 15,a gonz 31,kemp 20,v martinez 15,nolasco 10,pedroia 13,vazquez 19 and Albert 65,thoughts

  19. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Maitland: i’m just throwing this out there, but i do not like the pedroia pick. i think the guys is pretty overrated for what he is. that said, i would feel absolutely ok going with zimmerman there. i guess his value goes up because singles and doubles count, but i still don’t see the value over a guy like cano who’ll give you better power, similar avg and hits, and it’s not like pedroia is gonna get you 35+ SBs.

    of course i think pedroia is the new jeter…good player but very overrated for fantasy purposes because people like his scrappiness.

    @Matt B:
    jones
    bruce
    pence
    reimold
    choo

    that’s how i’d view them. reimold and choo could be a toss up. bruce and pence could be a toss up. and jones and bruce could be a toss up. oddly enough, i think like jones long term much better than pence. guess that’s saying that while bruce’s power has been nice thus far, his average concerns me…but he’s plenty young enough to get his average up into the .270-.290 range with continued development and a little more luck.

  20. incognithole says:
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    @incognithole: re: 2B – looks 11-30 slots higher but would you still grab one?

    Also, when do you plan on posting your 2nd post covering the other positions?

  21. Maitland says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: I get that it might seem high, but, the league has…singles, doubles, hr, tb, obp, avg, steals, r, rbi.

    Pedroia in that format is worth the #23 overall pick…if he makes it to me. But, given that second base is pretty thin, Utley will go in the top ten and Pedroia almost assuredly will outperform him in this categories setup, he’s not overrated. Take away singles and doubles, sure.

  22. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: in a 7×7 league he earns his worth a bit more(pedroia)i think,especially a keeper league at 13 and the other top 2nd sackers will be kept except for utley,who will cost 45-50

  23. @Steve: @Elijah: As Steve alludes to, Grey and I provide two independent views. I’m the more analytical/statistical of the two and try to stay as agnostic as possible going into drafts – e.g., I try not to let my opinions drive the draft as much as use my analysis (and expected ADP) to get the best draft possible. Grey does a lot of research but goes more by gut when putting together his top list.

    So I’d combine the two to think, “Well, Grey has Tulo, Longoria J-Roll in his top 20 and they are both available for my 16th pick. But Rudy’s analysis shows I can get SS for cheap later in the draft but there are no bargains at 3B. I should draft Longoria…

    @mikey boy324: Frigin’ Reyes. Drafted him in the 2nd round of an NL-snake draft last week. I think the 5th/6th round is very good value BUT with the various speedy SS coming at discounts later in the draft (A. Escobar, Ev-Cab, Theriot, Aybar), I’m inclined to let him pass even further.

    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Some it comes out in the wash. You can’t expect to be getting a lot of hitter bargains early in the draft. The key is just to minimize how much you have to overpay and then squeeze as much value out of your pitcher selections. It also pays to ‘overpay’ in positions where their draft value is inflated (3B, 1B to a point) and not overpay when there are bargains to be had (i think this will be the 2nd straight year that I end up with uggla on a lot of teams…)

    @Matt B:
    My order would be:
    Adam Jones, Jay Bruce, Hunter Pence, Nolan Reimold, Shin-Soo Choo

    I can see taking Jones before Werth in a keeper league but I think Werth is the best of the bunch for 2010.

    @Maitland: That’s definitely a reach for Zimmerman at #26 when his ADP is 33 and his value is at 50. But singles and doubles? That might change player values so it’s tough to say. It’s likely that Sandoval and Youk will also go for significant premiums vs. value so I could live w/ this pick.

    @Cheese: I’m calling you crazy. Why would you go 17 picks above ADP for Zimmerman? I’ve got his stats at 98/28/99/3/.291 and he’s down at #98 or something for 16-team Point Shares. There HAS to be better bargains at that position. You must be able to get one of the top 5-6 1Bs. I’d couple that with an OF – especially if you’re playing 5 OF (which drives up OF scarcity way more than 3B – 8/9 of starting OFs vs. 16/32 of 3Bs).

    I like Zimmerman and all….just don’t see why to overpay that much for him….

    @Frank Rizzo: Sounds good!

    @madx34: Love Braun at #5. It’s tough to say if Zimmerman is still around at #28 (Tony took my cheese joke). I’d rather grab a 1B in that slot (assuming Morneau or Votto still around).

  24. Sammy the Bull says:
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    How does Beckham’s pending 2b eligibility affect his value? What about Figgins if the Mariners go through with shifting him to second? Thanks, great post.

  25. GTG says:
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    Highly misleading — if SPs are always “underdrafted,” then offensive players will always be “overdrafted.” You need to account for that in the analysis, because it seems based on your article that there are virtually no offensive values. That’s clearly not right.

  26. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    Rudy, you didn’t mention Beltre. Uncomfortable question: is this based on the fact that he doesn’t wear a cup? Too much Jocular Sphyncteritis risk?
    Based on Beltre’s ADP, he could be a pretty decent value, right?

  27. Matt B says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: Thanks for your thoughts! I had: Pence/Jones/Bruce/Reimold/Choo with similar thoughts that the last 2 were behind the first 3 (and I can probably get them later).

    @Rudy Gamble: You rock. Thanks again for taking the time.

  28. @zombie: I like Aramis. He’s getting drafted at about the same premium as Zimmerman in 10/12 team drafts (2 rounds earlier vs. value). I like both these guys a lot – just wouldn’t pay a greater premium than that 2 rounds.

    A larger statement would be that I respect people’s ‘instincts’ on a player. If you really want players on your team b/c you really feel they are going to overperform vs. expectations, go for it on a couple of picks. But I encourage everyone to not get hung up on a player or even a position. Each draft is different. Have a loose gameplan and go with the flow. You know how I know when I have a good draft? When the guys who draft after me are constantly cursing me! That’s telling me that I got a guy as late as I possible could….

    @incognithole: Yeah, that’s how the projections are reading for M-Teix. But I found it a little surprising hence my paragraph on him under 1B.

    Pedroia or Phillips at #39 isn’t bad. They are going at about 36/37 while their values are in the high 40’s. I wouldn’t get Reyes as well. Only think it’s worth getting one MI in the first 9 rounds given the bargains that are found later in the draft.

    I like Holliday over J-Upside in a non-keeper draft.

    @AL KOHOLIC: Hmm, I’d just check the Point Shares $ values for 5×5, multiply those $s by 300/260 to adjust them accordingly, and consider OBP/K contribution. On initial glance, Pedroia and Kemp seem like solid values. If K’s are a category, can’t see how you can keep Chris Davis (unless you win the category with the most hitter Ks).

  29. @Sammy the Bull: 2B eligibility doesn’t add much to his value. 2B and 3B are pretty comparable in depth – the top 3Bs are better but 2B has more good ones.

    @GTG: Just because pitchers get drafted below their value doesn’t change their impact on a team. Everyone is more than welcome to adjust these differences as they see fit. I did look into an adjusted ADP difference but didn’t love the results.

    @IowaCubs: At an ADP of #178, Beltre is a great late-game flier. Yeah, his Point Shares are down at 260 but it’s driven by a low projected AB total from BP (460). If 3Bs go quicker than outlined in the post, I’d hold tight and pick up someone like Beltre – or maybe someone like Chipper or Michael Young falls further than expected. So if you told me I can have Beltre in the 20th round or Zimmerman in the early 3rd round, I’d feel better about the former…

    @Matt B: NP. Thanks for taking the time to ask us the questions…

  30. Ernie says:
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    Rudy – good post. It seems that most ‘top’ guys w/ the exception of Pujols and Han-Ram are overvalued. I get that, but at the same time you want and need top producers. I think I rather take a flier on David Wright and draft him 5-10 spots ahead of his ADP than have Gordan David Beckham fill my 3B hole. Back to the post, are you suggesting that we load up on top and middle tier SP since they seem to be undervalued?
    As a side note, I’m curious to hear your current feedback on Heyward now that he has a few Spring Training games under his belt. He’s been spectacular, but I’ve always felt that Spring games need to taken w/ a grain of salt because pitchers are just working themselves into shape. Thoughts?

  31. incognithole says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Thanks for the feedback….teix; understand now…overrated….fancy words like “biggest” and “premium” can throw a razzballer off….

    Im drafting tomorrow night and will be implementing the BRAN strategy. Any other tips/advice on certain players/positions youd like to impart? ie you guys dont advocate going for top tier closers, but is papelbon/rivera “good value” or tempting to take in mid 8th rd or does that only encourage you further to stick it out bc that means the next tier, heath bell, will fall and be more valuable too

    ……you potentially saved me on reaching for andrus, 3Bs……really an awesome guideline/position breakdown!

  32. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: RE: Zimmerman. I may be crazy to take Zimmerman at 16, but I don’t really like anyone else at that spot. I’m draft 16th in a 16 team H2H league 8×8. I’ll be taking a 1B (hopefully one of Fielder/Miggy/Tex/Howard falls to me, but I’ll settle for A-gonz if I have to). But then I don’t know where to go from there. I did my own calculations based on my league and razzball projections (considering position scarcity), and it gave Zimmerman ranked as 13 overall, tied with David Wright. Speed is overrated for my league, so it’s effect is minimal compared to AVG/RBI/HR (our other stats are BB, hits and SLG). Look at Wright’s/Zimmerman’s lines.
    Wright – 100/25/110/.300/17
    Zimmerman – 105/30/110/.295/5
    Why should Wright be taken so far ahead of Zimmerman? I look at those projections, and my league settings, and I see equal value. I don’t pick again until 48/49, and my chances to get a top/reliable 3B are slim. I could take a 1B and Holliday if he falls to me.

    I guess I have no idea what to do at pick 16/17… what do you recommened?

  33. malacoda says:
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    Why does CHONE basically assume every player will have a season that is substantially worse than the one from the prior year? To heed him you would have to accept that nobody ever scores 100 runs, bats over .285, or mashes 30 taters. Just look at the Teixeira line you posted, he shaved 10-20% off of every stat. Is he so afraid of being wrong that he has to lowball everybody?

    I don’t naturally assume improvement for players, but I don’t project substantial declines for everybody for no reason either.

    I guess the exception would be HanRam, for whom he projects a 20% boost in run scoring to go with his decline in OBP and average.

  34. JoeC says:
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    All well and good, but when you have people taking Razzball favorites like Ian Stewart in Round 7 (pick 78) in a 12 team league, bargains are hard to come by (and yes, this is from one of the official Razzball fantasy league drafts).

    Other notable travesties: Elivs Andrus Round 9 (pick 99), Julio Borbon Round 10 (pick 117), Chris Davis Round 11 (pick 128), Alcides Escobar Round 13 (pick 145), Everth Cabrera Round 13 (pick 156), Kelly Johnson Round 14 (pick 157), Jonathan Sanchez Round 15 (pick 175), Johnny Cueto Round 18 (pick 209), Chase Headley Round 18 (pick 215).

    These people not only drank the Razzball Kool-aid, they also snorted the Abba-Zabbas and free-based the Pop Rocks.

  35. Tony says:
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    @Cheese: bc wright can steal 30 bases, he should get 20+ easy…. 17 is a low estimate if you ask me.

    @JoeC: if people are reaching that hard on stewart i’m happy….. take him in the 7th, thats just pushing other valuable players down…. just because you want a guy really bad doesn’t mean you should be reaching that far for him, all value is about lost…. now he HAS to perform, before you were just hoping for him to do what you think he could….

  36. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Rudy…….will you be posting “What it takes to win” for 10 team leagues? R/HR/RBI/SB/AVE x K/W/S/ERA/WHIP?

  37. Mikey boy324 says:
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    Ya that sucks Rudy I really liked Reyes al lot before the injury im just trying to gauge what round Hes gonna bring good value in without reaching…

  38. sean says:
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    @JoeC: Had to be expected, bro. Gotta zig when they zag.

  39. Dean says:
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    1. (5) Ryan Braun
    2. (20) Justin Upton
    3. (29) Jimmy Rollins
    4. (44) Brian Roberts
    5. (53) B.J. Upton
    6. (68) Derrek Lee
    7. (77) Chone Figgins
    8. (92) Billy Butler
    9. (101) Cole Hamels
    10. (116) Ricky Nolasco
    11. (125) Ian Stewart
    12. (140) Miguel Montero
    13. (149) Stephen Strasburg
    14. (164) Carlos González
    15. (173) Rich Harden
    16. (188) Leo Núñez
    17. (197) Rickie Weeks
    18. (212) Mike Napoli
    19. (221) Brian Matusz
    20. (236) Jorge De La Rosa
    21. (245) Michael Wuertz
    22. (260) Wade Davis

    thats the draft i came out with in my h2h 12 team league. how do you think i did? SLG% and QS are the 6th stat in each category

  40. Dean says:
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    i’m aware my pitching is utter hog shit btw. it’s too inconsistent for me to draft any of the big guys.

  41. Mickey says:
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    @malacoda:

    my thoughts exactly.

  42. tyler says:
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    @malacoda: I think the standard projectionist’s answer (whether CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA, etc) is that they’re not projecting NO ONE to hit over 35 HR. To the contrary, they’re sure someone will – just can’t be sure WHO will. It doesn’t really make sense to give someone a projection where the average (most likely outcome) is 40 HR. Setting aside weighted means, that would be saying that they’ve got just as good a chance of hitting 70 HR as 10 HR.

  43. @Ernie: I agree to get some run producers in the first couple of rounds – regardless of whether you have to pay some sort of premium for them. I just recommend going in with a ‘I have to have THIS guy’ mentality vs. “I’ll take the best bargain out of this group of somewhat comparable players”

    Just note that it isn’t like you can’t find R/HR/RBI later in the draft. I did an NL-only draft a week or two ago and drafted Lincecum/Reyes (ugh) as my top 2. I STILL finished #1 in projected HR by drafting better values like Uggla, Garrett Jones, and Cody Ross.

    Just don’t think Heyward will make that big of a splash this year. I thought he was a fringe 5th OF before spring training. Maybe he’s fringe 4th OF now.

    @incognithole: Not much more to impart that I haven’t already imparted. I’m not as opposed as Grey in taking a top closer but I like to gauge the draft room’s valuation of closers before drafting one and that’s impossible if you grab the first one off the board. If Broxton or Pap are available after pick #70, you’re getting great value. I’d prefer to wait for 1 or 2 to be picked before jumping in. I do believe closers have value above and beyond Saves but that’s factored in within the Point Shares (i’m not a believer of SAGNOF except for the fact that all closers should be owned)

    @Cheese: 8×8 league….hmm, that does change it. You’re right that an 8×8 vs. 5×5 means that speed is less important. A-Gonz’s value would definitely increase with counting BB. I could live w/ Zimmerman there but would prefer Holliday. I’d consider Justin Upton too.

    Wright > Zimmmerman based on projections because of Wright’s speed and better BA. If you exclude speed, they are about equal (Zimmerman’s power neutralizes Wright’s BA). (That’s just figured out by looking at the Point Shares by category).

    @malacoda: #1 frustration with CHONE projections tends to be that they are lower than expected. Sean (the guy behind CHONE) is better at explaining this than me. I’ll just say that I find CHONE and ZiPS to be excellent at rate statistics – e.g., HR per Plate Appearance – but that you have to weight this against a more realistic source for playing time (Fantistics tested best last year – I’ve stuck with Baseball Prospectus for one more year…)

    @JoeC: Like Sean said. Reminds me of a question we asked Matthew Berry of ESPN last year that he dodged. We asked something like “Wouldn’t it make more sense for ESPN drafters to go against the strategies proposed by your writers since zagging is the more effective strategy?” I’d say that’s the case as well in Razzball drafts. If I was playing in one, I’d have my draft board based on Point Shares and then zag away….(note: I would not go super nuts on drafting SPs though – if I get 2 in the top 6 rounds, I’m happy. I’m ECSTATIC about my Lincecum/Hamels top 2 in a 12-team NL draft where I got Hamels in the 5th round….)

    @Frank Rizzo: It’ll be up later in the week.

    @Mikey boy324: It’s great it isn’t his legs but who the hell knows about a thyroid? The Mets are cursed :)

    @Dean: On quick glance, I’d say you need to read the BRAN strategy post. I love Braun at #5 but then I would’ve skipped Upton for a 1B at #20 (assuming at least A-Gonz was around). I’m not a big fan of 2B/SS early in drafts – I like Rollins at #29 better than Roberts at #44. I think you reached on Figgy when you were already fine on speed. Eh on Butler. Love Hamels. Good value on Nolasco. Love CarGo, Weeks, Napoli, De La Rosa for value. Another closer would have been nice. Overall, you’ve got a solid foundation here. As with all 10/12 team MLB leagues, in-season managing will decide the rest (note: I actually prefer deeper mixed leagues or AL/NL only specifically because I find I’m just so-so at in-season managing. Grey’s great at it. That’s why we co-manage so many teams :))

  44. Kyle says:
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    Hey RuGa!
    I was wondering if you could help me with my team, just take a quick look and tell me where I am weak. I know I need a different catcher, but Im thinking of just punting and waiting for martin to come back, even though I doubt he will produce. Here it is, 14 team league 7×7

    C-Russel Martin (drafted him super late, thinking bout dropping)
    1B- Billy Butler
    2B- Jose Lopez
    3B- David Wright
    SS-Erick Aybar
    OF- Jason Bay
    OF- Shin-Soo Choo
    OF-Jay Bruce
    Util- Juan Rivera (OF)
    Util- Brad Hawpe (OF)
    BENCH- Drew Stubbs (OF)
    BENCH – Brandon Wood (util)

    SP- Felix Hernandez
    SP- Wandy Rodriguez
    SP- Tommy Hanson
    SP- Jorge De La Rosa
    SP- Justin Duchsherer
    RP-Frank Francisco
    RP-Phil Hughes
    BENCH- Joel Piniero (SP)
    BENCH- Aroldis Chapman (SP)

  45. tyler says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: It seems like there’s been some good work comparing the explosion of projection systems lately (e.g., Tango’s contest). I feel more or less comfortable using ZiPS, CHONE, etc. (I also use Baseball Notebook to help correct the PT issue and to stay current during the season).

    That said, it seems like there isn’t much analytic comparison of drafting/ranking tools like Point Shares. I recall Mays at LPP doing a comparison (which, IIRC, you saw flaws in) and Tango did a broader comparison (which he saw flaws in). Frankly, I’m not sure of a good way to compare the various ranking tools out there (though it seems like the running-1000-drafts-using-last-year’s-stats method should, theoretically, work). Have you put PS head to head against any other ranking systems?

  46. GTS says:
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    Grey – I’m taking over a last place team in a 4 keeper H2H league. I managed to talk my way into keeping only 2 players of the total 4 and grabbing any 2 players pre-draft that are left over after everyone selects their keepers. I could keep anywhere from 2 to 4 players. The league is 6×5 (+OBP and W-L instead of just W). C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3OF, 2UTIL, 5SP, 2RP? Advice?

    Atkins, Garrett 3B BAL
    Blalock, Hank 1B TEX
    Damon, Johnny LF DET
    Jones, Adam CF BAL
    Loney, James 1B LA
    Lowell, Mike 3B BOS
    Martin, Russell C LA
    Polanco, Placido 2B PHI
    Ramirez, Manny LF LA
    Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI
    Upton, B.J. CF TB
    Votto, Joey 1B CIN
    Weeks, Rickie 2B MIL
    Young, Delmon LF MIN

    Capps, Matt RP WAS
    Fuentes, Brian RP ANA
    Kazmir, Scott SP ANA
    Lackey, John SP BOS
    Millwood, Kevin SP BAL
    Peavy, Jake SP CHW
    Scherzer, Max SP DET
    Weaver, Jered SP ANA
    Zambrano, Carlos SP CHC

  47. Dean says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Yeah I hate Figgins and Roberts, I’m pretty annoyed that I picked them actually. I feel a little better with Stewart behind them though. Kinda hate Lee too but it was either him or wind up with Butler as my 1B at that point. Do you think there’s a realistic trade I can make involving Figgins/Roberts and Napoli/Montero for someone like Zimmerman?

  48. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GTS: Is this your team before or after keepers? Is this the group you’re choosing from for keepers?

  49. NoonTime says:
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    The MLB 12 Team – 2010 Razzball Projected Point Shares – All Value Team

    C – Jeff Clement +169
    1B – Adam LaRoche +84
    2B – Crapolanco +88
    3B – Casey Blake +74
    SS – Evercab +93
    CI – Kevin Kouzmanoff +72
    MI – Skip Schumaker +83
    OF – Elijah Dukes +183
    OF – Luke Scott +127
    OF – Ryan Raburn +123
    OF – Delmon Young +120
    OF – Lastings Milledge +116
    U – David DeJesus +115
    SP – Colby Lewis +204
    SP – Kris Medlen +190
    SP – Rich Harden +140
    SP – Kenshin Kawakami +124
    SP – Joe Blanton +120
    SP – Jon Garland +111
    RP – Takashi Saito +186
    RP – Rafael Betancourt +180
    RP – Sergio Romo +167

  50. Eddy says:
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    “JUPITER, Fla. — Marlins All-Star Hanley Ramirez was scratched from the lineup on Monday with a tight right groin. The ailment is not believed to be serious, and the 26-year-old shortstop is listed as day-to-day.”

    Though I doubt I’ll get slotted to draft at pick #2, this sucks as a Marlins fan :/

  51. mapwheel says:
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    Grey – I just bought a side of ribs for dinner tonight. Would you recommend barbecuing them or doing more of a Memphis-style dry rub?

  52. The Abusement Park says:
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    The Abusement Park ™
    1. (3) Hanley Ramírez
    2. (22) Kevin Youkilis
    3. (27) Mark Reynolds
    4. (46) Curtis Granderson
    5. (51) Cliff Lee
    6. (70) Yovani Gallardo
    7. (75) Nelson Cruz
    8. (94) Torii Hunter
    9. (99) Matt Wieters
    10. (118) Alfonso Soriano
    11. (123) Jered Weaver
    12. (142) Francisco Cordero
    13. (147) Jason Heyward
    14. (166) Ben Sheets
    15. (171) Brandon Webb
    16. (190) Michael Cuddyer
    17. (195) Jonathan Sánchez
    18. (214) Johnny Cueto
    19. (219) Garrett Jones
    20. (238) Kevin Gregg
    21. (243) Matt Lindstrom
    22. (262) Scott Sizemore

    12 team h2h. How do you think I did? I think my team is pretty awesome

  53. sean says:
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    @NoonTime: Looks like the 9th place team to me.

  54. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Thanks Rudy, much appreciated. I’ve read over how point shares works so many times, but I don’t know why I just don’t understand it 100%. Can you sum it up for me in a different way that would help me understand what I’m looking at? Thanks.

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @NoonTime: That looks terrible.

    @Eddy: Thanks for the update!

    @mapwheel: Dry rub.

    @The Abusement Park: Looks like you’re punting average, speed and your middle of the pitching staff isn’t that pretty.

    *****THERE’S A NEW POST FOR FOLLOWUPS FOR ME.******

  56. GTS says:
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    @Grey: This is the group I’m choosing keepers from.

  57. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GTS: Jones, Rollins, Upton, Votto…

    *****THERE’S A NEW POST FOR FOLLOWUPS FOR ME.******

  58. NoonTime says:
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    The MLB 12 Team – 2010 Razzball Projected Point Shares – All Best Value From Each Group Of 12 By Rank

    C – Carlos Ruiz (253-264) -130
    1B – Albert Pujols (1-12) +0
    2B – Martin Prado (205-216) +24
    3B – Edwin Encarnacion (241-252) -34
    SS – Marco Scutaro (193-204) -17
    CI – Adam LaRoche (169-180) +84
    MI – Everth Cabrera (217-228) +93
    OF – Carlos Beltran (85-96) +53
    OF – Jay Bruce (109-120) +38
    OF – Julio Borbon (145-156) +20
    OF – Ryan Ludwick (157-168) +77
    OF – Garrett Jones (181-192) +44
    U – Alcides Escobar (229-240) +43
    SP – Roy Halladay (13-24) +19
    SP – Zack Greinke (25-36) +24
    SP – Dan Haren (37-48) +35
    SP – Javier Vazquez (49-60) +46
    SP – Josh Beckett (73-84) +50
    SP – Chad Billingsley (121-132) +85
    RP – Jonathan Broxton (61-72) +54
    RP – Heath Bell (97-108) +69
    RP – Huston Street (133-144) +90

  59. NoonTime says:
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    @NoonTime: EDIT: Each Group Of 12 By ADP….. not RANK

  60. Lava says:
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    @NoonTime: Interesting. So basically, the opposite of the drafting hitters early strategy. I know point shares values pitchers pretty highly, but I wonder if the statistics are responding to the current trend of building teams?

  61. NoonTime says:
    (link)

    More fun with Value – Again looking as each round of 12 based on ADP. Summing the Value in the each round and calculating the Average Value in the round:

    ROUND TOTAL +/- AVERAGE of ROUND
    1 -114 -9.5
    2 -215 -17.9
    3 -117 -9.8
    4 -307 -25.6
    5 -272 -22.7
    6 -83 -6.9
    7 -214 -17.8
    8 42 3.5
    9 151 12.6
    10 -323 -26.9
    11 -51 -4.3
    12 -245 -20.4
    13 84 7.0
    14 -73 -6.1
    15 -630 -52.5
    16 -149 -12.4
    17 -971 -80.9
    18 -332 -27.7
    19 -188 -15.7
    20 -995 -82.9
    21 -374 -31.2
    22 -1300 -108.3
    23 -1466 -122.2
    24 -1265 -105.4
    25 -793 -66.1
    26 -1098 -91.5
    27 -177 -14.8
    28 -197 -16.4

  62. tyler says:
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    Rds 4, 5 are bad value, while 8 and 9 are good value…bet that’s reflective of when SP’s are taken.

  63. @tyler: Tango’s contest last year was a pretty good one but it had its conceits – e.g., lumped 2B/SS/3B into one position, 1B/DH together, etc. I haven’t determined the best methodology for comparing systems just yet. I like LPP though i disagree with his use of positional VORP vs. positional average because I think all positions (except Catcher) tend to regress to the same ‘replacement level’ as the surplus of solid 1B/OF will get used up in UTIL.

    @Dean: It’ll be hard to get a Zimmerman by trade yet unless that guy’s team has a glaring need you’re filling. Look for the teams hurting in speed and hopefully you can trade some of it in a month or so…

    @NoonTime: One note would be that the best bargain by total +/- will likely lead to a lot of lower draft picks. It might pay to look at best values per round – taking into account that there’s a law of diminishing returns with SPs. (I’d cap it at one per 4 rounds or so.

    (Note: this is one of the tougher things with testing a ratings system. the ideal tool would adjust players’ values based on your current roster and the available players to be drafted. maybe something lou and i can collaborate on for War Room 2011.

  64. Jo says:
    (link)

    Hey Rudy, I noticed something in a draft last night that might explain why 3B is ranked too high this year. My hypothesis is that, when a position has attractive talent buried deep within, people will hold off on the upper tiers to draft that talent and spend their earlier picks on other positions. But at some positions, everyone in the draft is shooting for late round talent because they are all waiting for others to go off the board so they can draft the later guys. The opposite of this works with the 3b position this year. There is no good talent buried deep so people jump on the guys they like. Does that make sense?

  65. tyler says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Good deal, thanks much. I agree with you that LPP’s system undervalues MI/C’s at the expense of 1B/OF.

  66. Pugsly says:
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    I love this site, but this has to be the most pointless article I have ever read. You have listed just about every single top 50 player as overvalued. Clearly you guys are running out of topics to write about.

  67. incognithole says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Final question about my upcoming draft and thanks again for your help and time.

    assume pujols, hanram, arod, utley, braun, kemp, 4 1B’s, longoria, wright, holliday and either kinsler or lincecum are taken who do you take at #15 and youve already taken a 1B in rd1…..

    the best guy on the rankings are tulo, but clearly hes being overvalued. I dont want kinsler/lincecum/mauer for the reasons mentioned on this site and sizemore is a little bit of a risk for early 2nd rd.

    Ideally Id like to land a 3B or kemp/holliday at #15, but if i dont get them id be inclined to take J-upside….who would you take and why? Thanks again….is there a limit on comments/posts by commenters?

  68. GTS says:
    (link)

    Rudy – why is Joe Nathan still valued at $19?

  69. herschel says:
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    @Rudy – 5 x 5 12 team keeper league (only 2 keepers per team) and we lose the round pick of where the keeper was drafted. Who would you rather keep, Tulo in round 8 or Sandoval at round 18 (Kemp in round 11 is my other keeper). Thanks in advance.

  70. boom boom bynum says:
    (link)

    So Rudy, are you saying you value Braun higher than A-Rod as pick #3. If I take Braun with the third pick, would A-Gonz (2) and Zimmerman (3) be reasonable? Then wait for 2B (Stewart)?

  71. @Jo: Makes some sense. It’s hard to say exactly why. I know there’s a historical assumption that 2B/SS is something to draft early b/c of scarcity even though 25 HR guys like Uggla and Stewart can be had several rounds later. I think 3B always has more depth than people think. Guys like Chipper, Cantu, Beltre, etc. bring some more risk and are less sexy picks but can still put up solid stats.

    @Pugsly: Um, thanks? The point isn’t that every hitter is overvalued – the point is trying to find bargains so you’re getting the most of your draft. Sorry you can’t find any value in this post…

    @GTS: haven’t updated since the injury.

    @herschel: My gut says Tulo but my head’s overruling it after seeing the Point Shares. Sandoval is valued similarly to Tulo and an 8th round pick is more valuable than an 18th round pick.

    @boom boom bynum: Yes on Braun vs. A-Rod. Gonz/Zimmerman would be a solid 2nd/3rd round. Wait on 2B…

    @incognithole: That would be a tough position. I’d take Lincecum. J-Upside and Crawford would work okay too.

  72. Nick says:
    (link)

    @Grey/Rudy
    I vote that you guys challenge the ESPN writers to a one-year league.

  73. Ha. After last year’s interview with Matthew Berry, I have a feeling they wouldn’t accept.

    Below are links to recent Tout Wars and LABR results (two of the more high exposure ‘expert’ leagues) that we’re still trying to worm our way into. Based on what I’ve seen, Jason Grey is really good. Nate Ravitz had a good year last year. Matthew Berry and Eric Karabell are question marks.

    Tout Wars – NL
    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsAa9oCjuqbwcHVheWRiVDN6czJOU2FORWF1NHdPTGc&hl=en

    Tout Wars AL
    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsAa9oCjuqbwcHVheWRiVDN6czJNUHNHbmRYMEZGZHc&hl=en

    Tout Wars Mixed
    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsAa9oCjuqbwdG1hSW9KQWxnU2ZGenVXUENSWUdmV1E&hl=en

    LABR – AL
    http://content.usatoday.com/communities/fantasywindup/post/2009/10/labr—al-recap-grey-gallops-to-another-title/1

    LABR – NL
    http://content.usatoday.com/communities/fantasywindup/post/2009/10/labr-nl-recap-rookie-stuns-the-veterans/1

  74. Nick says:
    (link)

    Very interesting….
    Do they do this every year? I’m also curious as to what went wrong in that interview.

  75. @Nick: those leagues have been around for a while now. grey did the interview so he’d be the person to ask on what went wrong….

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