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Less than a month ago, just a few days prior to the New York Mets regular season opener against the Kansas City Royals, Mets starting pitcher Matt Harvey sent a scare through the baseball world when it was revealed that his Opening Day start was suddenly in jeopardy due to an undisclosed medical issue. Uh oh. Maybe all of those extra postseason innings were more than his surgically repaired elbow could handle. Maybe he suffered a knee or other lower body injury by altering his mechanics to lessen the strain on that elbow. Maybe he got a little careless with a new lady friend. Speculation was running rampant over this mysterious ailment. Ultimately, the issue turned out to be a blood clot in Harvey’s bladder, which, thankfully for Harvey, was passed through the urine and led to no further complications.

That is, there have been no further issues health-wise for Harvey. Fantasy-wise is a different story. In his first three starts this season, Harvey already has three losses on his resumé to go with a 5.71 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and 9 strikeouts to 7 walks across 17.1 innings. Those numbers are unimpressive to say the least, and fall quite a bit short of his 2015 numbers after making a successful return from Tommy John surgery last season (2.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 188/37 K/BB in 189.1 IP). So what’s the problem? Is there a lingering health issue? Bad luck? Let’s take a quick look at his profile to see if we can figure out what the issue is in the early going:

Harvey’s batted ball profile is solid. His current 50.9% GB% as well as his 32.2% Soft% would represent career highs in those categories. Subsequently, his 26.3% FB% and 20.3% Hard% would be career lows in those respective categories. He’s only allowed one home run in three starts for a 0.52 HR/9 (career 0.63 HR/9).

His overall velocity is down slightly. Harvey’s average velocity on various pitches appears to be down 1.5-1.7 mph across the board depending on pitch type. This isn’t necessarily alarming when considering the facts that Harvey’s spring training was cut short by his health scare and that the cool early season weather combined with the reality that pitchers are still building up arm strength tend to affect the readings on the radar gun early on. It’s certainly something to keep an eye on though.

He’s been a victim of bad luck. Despite the promising batted ball data, Harvey’s current .328 BABIP is well above his career average (.277) and his shockingly low 58.6% LOB% (career 77.4%) would easily represent his worst result in that category.

His mechanics when pitching out of the stretch are out of whack. This is probably the biggest reason for Harvey’s early season struggles. Here are his numbers when pitching out of the windup (no runners on base) versus out of the stretch (men on base):

bases empty – 9.2 IP, 7 H,  3 BB, 7 K, .189/.250/.189 BA/OBP/SLG

men on base – 7.2 IP, 13 H, 4 BB, 2 K, .419/.500/.643 BA/OBP/SLG

Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen attributes these struggles out of the stretch to Harvey trying to be quick to home plate in order to give the catcher a chance to throw out would-be base stealers. In doing so, Harvey collapses the back side and ends up pushing a lot of baseballs, affecting velocity and location.

Bottom line: There certainly hasn’t been a lack of news concerning Harvey over the past year and a half. From his TJS recovery, to his heavily debated innings limit last season, to his health scare this spring, to his early season struggles – there’s a lot going on here. Fortunately for current (and prospective) Harvey owners, his main issue appears to be mechanical in nature. A tweak or two to his approach when pitching with runners on base should lead to improved results. There might be an opportunity for you to buy low here. I’d recommend doing so.

Final Verdict:

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