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Admit it, you sang the title when you read it. There is no denying this. While I’m not sure that qualifies as a good thing, I don’t necessarily consider it a bad thing. As a child of the 80’s, I am neutral in this regard. You might not be, however. You might think Admiral Ackbar should have been there to warn you of an impending trap. Or you might think that I’m a kindhearted person that would never launch a guerrilla campaign of thought-wars with old 80’s songs. Or even that I might secretly be seeking affection and approval from the Guru. You would be wrong on all three counts, because, you know, ef his turban thingamajig. Amiright? Or excuse me, jam or cram his very big head accessory. Anyhow, like five sentences later, you still have that song stuck in your head, don’t you? Hey buddy, don’t hate the player, hate the game. You think I’m going to talk about Carlos Gomez, who’s nicknamed Go-Go, and not go with a Wham title tie-in? You not knowin’ son. You not knowin’.

So, I didn’t really plan this. Well, I mean, I *did* plan this, after all, this is my series. What I mean to say is that I did not intentionally pick a guy that could be described in the same manner as last weeks focus, Starling Marte. In fact, it would be fair to assume that I could simply copy and paste about 88% of that post here and it would be an accurate summation. But since I love writing and you love reading, let us never speak of that evil magic ever again. However, with that option being mentioned, we don’t quite have to preface how I feel about a player with Gomez’s power/speed skillset. And we also don’t have to spend too much time talking about said skillset.

At this moment, I want to concentrate on the fact that through 36 games in 2013, Carlos Gomez is the best baseball player currently in the Major Leagues when measuring with WAR, which includes defense. As surprising as that may seem, I’m about to blow your socks completely off with this next factoid. Carlos Gomez is currently a top-5ish fantasy baseball producer. Crazy-talk, I know. With that said, let’s show Carlos Gomez’s season in a GIF nutshell.

I have Power

I have Speed

I AM INVINCIBLE!

So says Boris AND Carlos Gomez

In 142 plate appearances, Gomez has a .368 batting average, 6 homeruns, 22 runs and 18 RBI’s to go along with 8 steals. I don’t generally use ‘on pace’ numbers for any kind of bedrock analysis, but it does show that this season would translate into 25+ homeruns and 35+ steals. Along with a .350+ BA, well, those are certainly top-5ish numbers, maybe even numero uno. That’s Commander Riker for my non-spanish speaking friends. And what did you pay for him? A 10th round pick maybe? 13th? You should be pointing at all your league mates and giggling. But then you should stop immediately, because sooner or later, Go-Go will Stop-Stop.

This is the only Go-Go

That shall never Stop-Stop

Yes, I have just established he is currently producing top-5ish numbers. It wasn’t that hard. And I can also, and quite easily, make the case that Carlos Gomez is one of the most improved players from last year. Check this out. Carlos Gomez is one of the most improved players from the 2012 season. See? Easy peasy. And, if you are curious, Evan Longoria and Jean Segura also pique my interest as ‘most improved’ as well, and may or may not be talked again in a future post. I have yet to decide! But, back to Gomez. We know several things. He has power. He has speed. He is doing very well. And his season does not end tomorrow. And while these statements are general concepts that are easy to grasp, we should specifically note that since the season does not end tomorrow, we should accept the fact that Carlos Gomez may not finish as a top-5ish fantasy producer.

Now, it’s easy to look at his BABIP of .439 and say ‘well, that’s totally not going to last’. It’s so easy, I just did it right now. Feel free to do the same. And while I would tend to agree that a BABIP of .439 is unsustainable, it’s not crazy to say that it could be inflated for a quite a long time, especially for a player who has a good amount of speed. While we should regress to his career number of .312, that doesn’t mean the real-world luck dragon will listen. Remember, this stat can wildly fluctuate from year to year and requires a large sample to stabilize.

Instead of depending on BABIP to support the case for future regression, I’d rather combine that information with the fact that Gomez has a K% of 20.4 and a BB% of 4.2. Last year he had a K% of 21.7 and a BB% of 4.4. For his career, his BB% is at 5.0 and his K% is at 22.2. See what I’m getting at here? I’m assuming you said yes, so we’ll just agree that in terms of his discipline and approach, nothing at all has changed. This isn’t necessarily an end-of-the-world discovery, but being a hitter that is hitting well while at the same time hitting like he always has, does not compute. Something has to change, and that one something that will change is the fact he is hitting well.

In redraft leagues, I would actually hold for the rest of year. Yes, Gomez will regress, I am almost certain of that. But based on where you drafted him, it’s not like he’ll go to waste during said regression period. You got him as a fourth or fifth outfielder that would maybe hit 10+ homeruns and get 25+ stolen bases. Nothing has really changed that dynamic, and with the stats he’s already banked, barring injury, Gomez will most certainly eclipse those totals. ROS, I am projecting 47/13/39/.273/24. He will not hit .350+ for the rest of the year, that is something I’m almost certain of as well. However, even if he matches my projections, that’s still around a .300 BA, which would be a career high and a previous weak point in his game. And while there is a very strong chance he will regress, baseball is a funny game. His play might sustain for quite a while longer. So unless you get overwhelmed with an offer, or have a greater need elsewhere, hold on.

In keeper leagues, I want you to take what I said above with redraft leagues, and do the exact opposite. While I accept the fact that Gomez might sustain some of what he’s been doing, I cannot say the same on a long-term basis. If there was ever a time to sell, the time is now, as Gomez’s value is most likely at the highest point it ever will be. And while you will most likely have to reduce the price to a certain extent because most owners might see the signs of regression, even with a cursory glance, you are much better off selling now. We are seeing his peak year in action, and while you may not get elite value, the return will certainly be better than if he’s hitting .240 with a 10/15, which is certainly possible on a year to year basis with a player who only walks four percent of the time and is BABIP dependent.

And let’s remember, he’s not getting any younger. Yes, I will admit, 27 is not old in context. Even though I am 30 and I feel old. Then again, I am not a professional athlete. And I like to complain a lot. But there is plenty of evidence suggesting that power and speed are the first skills to peak and then degrade. So what Carlos Gomez is doing this year will more than likely not happen next year and then the year thereafter. A baseline of 65/15/75/.240/25 for the next two seasons seems reasonable, which is still very useful, but a possible outlier result will most likely land at the under, not the over of that baseline. Which is basically Carlos Gomez circa 2011. Which is basically a bunch of suck.

Yes, Carlos Gomez is having a wonderful year. So enjoy it. Savor it. Love it.

But remember, nothing lasts forever.

Final Verdict:

  1. Clint says:
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    I didn’t sing the title but it did remind me what always manages to make me feel better when I’m down: Orange Mocha Frappuccino!!!! That, and having a gas hose fight while lighting up a cig.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Clint: Best thing ever. Well, besides David Bowie judging a walk-off…

  2. Confused says:
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    From the picture, I thought the Guru was a woman?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Confused: What I’m presupposing is, maybe he isn’t?

  3. Jef says:
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    love the article. a month ago I had to drop either Gomez or BJ Upton. I chose painfully wrong. Question: where is “easy peasy” coming from? I don’t mind it but my 3 year old twins say it, so I assumed it was from Dora or something but now I’m hearing it everywhere. Things that make you go hmmm…(thought war with 90’s song)

    And do you like Heyward to outproduce Gomez ROS? Thanks.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Jef: I don’t know, I always knew it to describe an easy thing? I usually go ‘easy peasy, japanesey’ and I have heard of the ‘easy peasy, lemon squeezey’. So yeah.

      Heyward may come close, but I don’t like how he looked pre-injury. I think I’m going to lean Gomez right now.

    • steve b says:
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      here’s a little tidbit from someone we usually don’t like at this site but it is very interesting from mr Berry .TTMR and pertains to this article FROM ESPN “CONSIDER THE FACTS COLUMN on 2/26 and I only mention the name so I’m not plagerizing 72. Last season, Carlos Gomez hit 19 home runs in 452 plate appearances.
      73. Gomez had a higher home run rate (HR/AB) than Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Morse and Hanley Ramirez, among others.
      74. He also stole 26 bases in the second half, second most in major league baseball.
      75. Gomez didn’t play three consecutive games with at least four at-bats until June 19.

      76. Starting June 19, only one player had more steals than Gomez.

      77. He had 57 runs scored, tied for 22nd in the majors and more than Adam Jones, Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson, Ian Kinsler and Albert Pujols, among others, in that time frame.

      78. He also had 17 home runs (more than Buster Posey, Nelson Cruz, Mark Trumbo and Matt Holliday).

      79. He hit .258 in that time frame. Which sounds bad. But …

      80. Only 38 outfielders hit better than .258 last season. …

      81. Last season, the average, er, batting average among major league players was .255
      :

      • Jay

        jaywrong says:
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        @steve b: ONLY 38 outfielders?

        • steve b says:
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          @jaywrong: no one drafted him in their top 38 eitherJust pointing out that even when the batting avg normalizes the power and steals will still be there.The last half of last year and the start this year is quite a streak

  4. Riff Raff says:
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    the minute carlos gomez goes into a slump its going to last just as long as his streak now. Then its the DL. Sell high while you can on that guy

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Riff Raff: I can see that happening, yes.

  5. El Famous Burrito says:
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    Desmond Jennings, man. What the hey? Is he ever going to be the guy we thought he was, or were we all reverse-blinded by BJ Upton’s frustrating tendencies?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @El Famous Burrito: Well, I think there’s enough data to suggest who he is right now is who he always was and who he will be. That’s the greatest sentence ever, btw.

  6. Wake Up says:
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    You called?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Wake Up: Not unless you go-go’d.

      • Wake Up says:
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        @jaywrong: I was born go going…don’t be silly sally…

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Wake Up: Noted.

          • Wake Up says:
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            @jaywrong: That final verdict pic was pretty funny.

            • Jay

              jaywrong says:
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              @Wake Up: And cute!

              • Wake Up says:
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                @jaywrong: but sad…

                • Jay

                  jaywrong says:
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                  @Wake Up: Only when they eat equally cute baby seals.

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @jaywrong: Nah…baby seals are delicious…sad cuz they’ll be gone soon….(Sing it Sarah McGlachlan)

                    • Jay

                      jaywrong says:
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                      @Wake Up: I think she does abandoned puppies, not global warming cases.

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @jaywrong: no such thing as abandoned puppies…

                    • Jay

                      jaywrong says:
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                      @Wake Up: fair point.

  7. The Dude says:
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    Since you mention Marte – would you consider trading him straight up for an injured Ajax? The hammy scares me…

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @The Dude: Hamstrings can linger, so if you don’t mind taking less steals, but better rate stats and runs, then I’d still do it. But not until off the DL.

    • T Moore says:
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      @The Dude:

      Dude: Ajax was the original pumped up roid-ster… You always take a First of the Greeks, Achilles over a Ajax… Everytime and everyone on RazzBall knows that… Unless, you are Greek Hero card trading – Yes, then it might depend on the year…

      • The Dude says:
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        @T Moore: Huh?

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @The Dude: +5 magic missile son!

  8. T Moore says:
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    Mr. Jay Wrong: My heart is palpitating after reading that…

    Consider me whisked away – Again !!!!

    I thought, I was rereading Steven’s “Proteus” dream scene on Sandymount Strand – from “Ulysses” for a sec. there …. I think, I had really entered into another dream-state dimension myself… Imagining the GO-GOers and their dog (not in picture – as he is down the strand sniffing at – the next >), the putrescent dead dog and then, conveniently streaming to the long fingers of dancing sea-grass shrouding the 9 days ago drowned man body’s corrupted empty eye sockets that are staring up from beneath the shallows of Dublin Bay into the light…

    Then, I pinched myself… And it was??? Well, I really don’t know???

    I quess, I was reading you, Jay Wrong, on RazzBall and Carlos Gomez was the best player in MLB and the Polar bear cubs were waving to me – (after the minute it took for the GO-GOers video finally get loaded and start GO-GO’n) – goodbye…. And everything was OK – sort of…

    I ‘ll have to ask myself, long and hard, which dream-state dimension is/was the real stream of consciousness within all that… I think, I’m going to have to reread the cliff notes to “Siddhartha meets Uylsses – The Sequel” Part 2 ” … Are you in that one, Jay Wrong???

    Like Unity man… Oneness!!!! Heavy, Dude!!!

    Please, tell me, you didn’t plagiarize it..

    Ta Ta For Now… Mr Jay Wrong…

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @T Moore: I’ll address this later. There’s just too much too soon.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @T Moore: T Moore, my lover, excuse me, my friend, excuse me, my proximity infatuation…

      Was it really you who pinched yourself, or did the thought of me cause some sort of physical reaction?

      I am not in S meets U, part deux. However, you might find me one of the 3000 pages of ‘The Civil War, A Narrative’. Shelby Foote knew what was up. As do you.

      Dublin Bay is quite beautiful, is it not?

  9. malamoney

    malamoney says:
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    Hellickson or Teheran?

    H2H points league

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @malamoney: Hellickson.

      • malamoney

        malamoney says:
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        @jaywrong: Ha. Grey says Teheran. Damn you guys!

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @malamoney: Yeah, we have a few guys I think we disagree on. I’m not a fan of either, to be honest.

          • malamoney

            malamoney says:
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            @jaywrong:

            Would you drop Hellickson to pick up Teheran next week for his two starts?

            • Jay

              jaywrong says:
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              @malamoney: For next week? Yeah, MIN is the equalizer there. I’m okay with that.

  10. Steady says:
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    Hey how high do you think I could sell for another OF I wanna try and target an Adam jones cargo mcutchen in a keeper league and I’m a huge fan of jones… Am I crazy to try and package for that?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Steady: No, but in a keeper, I like McCutchen the most. But Jones isn’t far behind.

  11. Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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    you inverted the numbers for BB% and K%. it seems as if he walks just over 1/5th of the time and K’s less than 1/20th of the time.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Aubrey Plaza’s Pillow: Or maybe I did that on purpose to mess with everyone.

      I’ll SOS Vin.

      • VinWins

        VinWins says:
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        @jaywrong: Fixed.

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @VinWins: thanks Vin!

  12. MB says:
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    So Gomez could be grandy soon?

    Who would you trade Grandy for first, Zimmerman or Trumbo? need 3b

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @MB: Well, less power, more speed.

      Prolly Trumbo, unless its an OBP league.

      • MB says:
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        @jaywrong: You trust Zim to stay on the field all year?

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @MB: no, but he should be productive when on the field.

  13. The Salt says:
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    So uh is it possible to assume he may have gotten better as a hitter? Or does that not happen in baseball and we assume everyone will go back to previous numbers they put up?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @The Salt: totally possible. But you probably want more than 36 games to make that determination.

  14. Alex says:
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    I only play Moustaskas vs. Righties. Crazy to drop Moose for Chavez? only play him vs RHP

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Alex: In a redraft, no, not crazy at all.

  15. Scott says:
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    Would you pull the trigger on either of these? 12 team
    1) losing Kinsler and M. Saunders for McCann/Martinez and J. Bruce.
    2) Kinsler and Rizzo for Goldschmidt and wieters

    I have Rosario but he is not so hot lately. I’m looking to gain some HR’s so I’m leaning towards the McCann and Bruce trade.

    • Steady says:
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      @Scott: between the two i like B more

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Scott: I’d go with the first, along with your lean.

      • Scott says:
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        @jaywrong: hard to fight the lean

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Scott: Its all about the lean.

  16. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    Wham rules!!!

      • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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        @jaywrong: If I ever wrote an article at Razzball there would be at least one Wham reference in it.

  17. Fish says:
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    I traded Gomez ($9) for Cespedes ($9) in my keeper league a few days before this. Thanks for the confidence boost in that decision.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Fish: That’s a great trade, really drives the point about selling high.

  18. Steady says:
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    i traded willingham for cespedes in a keeper league… i win right?

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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      @Steady: You did good

      • Steady says:
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        @Wallpaper Paterson: now i just needa flip gomez for a nice outfielder and ill be doing real good

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Steady: Yes, good trade.

  19. Ron says:
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    Since you seem to look at this stuff…PLEASE tell me what the heck is (jay)wrong with Cespedes!

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Ron: If you look at his BABIP along with the fact that his HR/FB is similar to his career number, but his flyball rate is higher than normal… and since LD and FB are subjective at best and take a long time to stabilize… my head just exploded.

      Incredibly bad luck with his flyballs at the moment. Oh, and he’s striking out a bit too much. He should be okay though.

  20. Ron says:
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    Thanks for the Cespedes knowledge. Got a trade offer that’s floating out there right now.

    Give: Holliday, Gordon and Henderson
    Get: Cano and Rollins

    My other OF: Bautista, Cespedes, Bruce, Frazier
    My 2B: Carpenter
    My SS: Alcides

    Would you do this trade?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Ron: The best player in the is Cano, but I don’t really see a huge change here. I might hold. I like Carpenter more than I should perhaps.

  21. Steady says:
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    wtf is wrong is cain… started off with a nice 1,2,3 first innning and just shit the bed faster than a lamborghini doing 0-60… you could call it falling with style

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Steady: His fastball velo has been down a little and is quite hittable right now.

      I think it’s still too early to judge, but I’ve always wondered what it would look like if he stopped over performing on his peripherals.

      • Steady says:
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        @jaywrong: hes supposed to be one of the best and is currently the worst pitcher on my staff.. im kicking myself for not sitting him to preventing biting the silver bullet but of well.. what kinda time frame are we looking at to get as much as we can for him if thats what needs to be done or do you think he will turn it around despite outperforming his peripherals as you said

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Steady: Yeh, he’ll do better, but I think we might be looking at a 4.00+ ERA year, which is obviously not what you paid for.

          The K rate is still good, but the walks are trending the wrong way, and he’s not getting any LOB help. But I want to stress that 50.0 innings is still a very small sample. He could turn things around rather quickly.

          Gotta stick with him.

          • Steady says:
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            @jaywrong: i got him in a trade before the season started for chapman and swisher… thought i was gonna be easily on top of that especially having kimbrel as well… i certainly hope warmer weather brings nicer numbers… ill just take the push with him and miller who has been unreal… love that kid

            • Jay

              jaywrong says:
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              @Steady: That trade was a sound one.

              Still a lot of season left to go.

              • Steady says:
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                @jaywrong: sounds good man

                GO BRUINS!!!!!!!!

                • Jay

                  jaywrong says:
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                  @Steady: Sure thing, though I don’t condone Boston sporting success.

                  • Steady says:
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                    @jaywrong: whatever floats your boat man

  22. Ron says:
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    Please Rank’em ROS: Baustista, Holliday, Gordon, Cespedes, Bruce

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Ron: Bautista, Holliday, Cespedes, Gordon, Bruce

  23. MB says:
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    Any chance Jose Fernandez is > Strasburg in the future?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @MB: I’d give it a 30% chance.

  24. The Guru

    The Guru says:
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    I was always more of a Wang Chung fan.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @The Guru: Dance Hall Days!

  25. Andrew says:
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    Is Gomez at $11 ($13 next year) a good enough value to get Cano (unkeepable at his price) in a 10 team 6×6 roto keeping 8. I know this comes down to what the rest of the league may offer and what the best deal is, but I figured I’d ask.

    Alternatively, do you see a more realistic option that could be accepted that would hurt me the least next year:
    Rizzo $4 next year
    Goldschmidt $5
    Altuve $5 or $8
    Segura $4
    Marte $4 or $6
    Stanton $25
    Heyward $10
    Craig $6
    Bruce $20
    Kendrick $4 or $6
    M. Carpenter $4 or $6
    E. Cabrera $4

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Andrew: well, maybe, but if I were the other guy, I’d want some of your other guys.

      I don’t like Bruce at that price, and Altuve might be iffy. All the other keepers I like at those prices.

      • Andrew says:
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        @jaywrong: if you were the Cano owner and were pretty much out of it this year, what trade would you take? I understand its hard to judge a trade like this.
        It looks like there won’t be too many teams right now that are willing to go all in this year, and there aren’t many potential keepers on other teams that have the value a lot of mine do. From this guy’s perspective, he SHOULD take the best he is offered because anything is better than nothing when he’s going to lose Cano after this year

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Andrew: right, but there are other teams in it.

          He might be different than I am, but I won’t sell at a discount just because I should. I’ll wait for the highest bidder, and as long as I can to drive the price up. It’s a balance, no doubt, but the payoff might he bigger.

          If I had Cano, I would have wanted maybe Craig and Marte, or some combo like that. Or maybe Heyward and Kendrick.

          • Andrew says:
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            @jaywrong:

            Right now there are two dominant teams in my league (one is mine) and then three teams with around 55-60% of the points. (The two of us have around 80%)

            Yes, he could wait, but if he does, the number of buyers should decrease, the number of sellers should increase, and the amount of time I get Cano (and therefore the amount I’m willing to give) will decrease. This is all a crap shoot. Thank you for responding!

            I would think about the Heyward and Kendrick deal. Trading Stanton could make a lot of sense. I need the production now and he shouldn’t care how long Stanton is out as long as he produces next year.

  26. Al says:
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    If I trade Grandy for J Zim or Bautista for D Wright will I regret it?

    Need 3B bad

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Al: I’m okay on both if you are in need.

  27. malamoney

    malamoney says:
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    Would Jaime Garcia and Arenado be a fair offer for Scherzer?

    Other guys I could work into the mix include:

    BJ Upton, Morse, Gyorko

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @malamoney: I could see that working, depending how high the guy is on arenado. But I think that leans to you.

  28. Vernon says:
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    Could use another outfielder. Potential trade partner lacks pitching and owns Gomez, Gonzalez, Harper, McCutcheon and Davis. I was thinking of offering Peavy for one of these three. Please rank which one I should target and should I even make this trade? My pitching is solid and Cueto and Bailey are coming back

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Vernon: I’d go after Davis, I believe in him a bit more than Gomez right now. I don’t believe Peavy could get you close to Harper, Cargo, or McCutchen.

Comments are closed.