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Felix Hernandez has unquestionably been one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball in recent memory. His accomplishments over his 11+ MLB seasons are astounding. Six-time All-Star. AL Cy Young Award winner (2010) and two-time runner-up (2009, 2014). Led MLB in wins (2009) and ERA (2010, 2014). Threw the first perfect game in Seattle Mariners franchise history. On April 23rd of this season, he logged his 2,163rd strikeout as a Mariner to become the franchise’s all-time leader in career strikeouts (surpassing Randy Johnson). All of this from a player who just turned 30 years old a little over a month ago. This season, he’s come roaring out of the gates once again with a 2.27 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP through seven starts. He looks to be steadily advancing onto the path to Cooperstown. But is he still the same dominant pitcher that he’s proven to be throughout the majority of his career?

Let’s take a look at King Felix’s profile to determine if his dominant run is likely to continue throughout the 2016 season. Here are a few observations:

His batted ball profile is as strong as ever. Felix’s ground ball percentage is in-line with his career rate (54.5% GB% this season; 54.4% career average), and his current 14.6% line drive percentage is the lowest it’s been since his rookie year in 2005. His 20.3% Soft% would represent the second highest mark of his career, while his 25.0% Hard% would be his lowest since 2011. The one exception to this positive profile is the fact that…

He’s allowing more home runs than ever. From 2009 to 2014, Felix’s HR/9 was 0.62. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, that number has ballooned to 1.03. This recent trend of giving up the long ball might be due to the realization that…

His velocity is in decline. It’s only natural for a pitcher to lose velocity as he ages, but Felix’s decline has been shockingly swift. According to Fangraphs, his average FBv peaked at 95.8 mph as a rookie until gradually dropping to 92.4 mph in 2014. That number has fallen all the way down to 89.7 mph this season, and the velocity on his other pitches (slider, curve, change-up) is down across the board as well. The slower fastball is the biggest concern here though, as is evidenced by the fact that…

• His fastball has been one of the least effective pitches in MLB. In the last year plus (2015-2016), Felix’s fastball has graded out as the 8th worst such offering among the 76 qualified starting pitchers over that span, sandwiched between Alfredo Simon and Kyle Gibson. This might help to explain why…

His strikeout and walk rates are trending in the wrong direction. Felix’s current 6.80 K/9 and 4.12 BB/9 rates would easily represent the worst such rates of his career. His current 8.7% SwStr% is also a career low, and a reduced O-Swing% (26.2% in 2016; 30.2% career) means that opposing hitters aren’t chasing pitches outside of the strike zone quite as often as in previous years, which is a possible sign of diminished stuff. The decline in velocity and stuff in general might not just be due to age but also the fact that…

He leads MLB in innings pitched over the past decade plus. Since 2006, Felix’s 2221.2 IP are the most in MLB (in the regular season) and he’s thrown the 2nd most regular season pitches behind Justin Verlander during that time period as well. That’s a lot of wear and tear. For comparison’s sake, Felix is currently in his 12th season and has thrown 2306 innings in his career. Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax played 12 seasons and threw 2324.1 innings (+57 postseason) before retiring at the age of 30. Pitcher usage patterns, training methods, and modern medicine/surgical procedures are vastly different from what they were fifty years ago when Koufax played, but it provides an idea of how hard and often Felix has worked throughout his career.

Bottom line: Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers of this generation. His change-up is still one of the most effective pitches in the game today, and might be one of the best pitches of all-time. However, there are red flags everywhere. His velocity isn’t what it used to be, and, so far this season, neither is his control. If you believe what Andy Van Slyke said last November, he might be pitching with a partially torn UCL in his pitching elbow as well. His 4.64 FIP and 4.51 xFIP indicate that rough times could be ahead. Sell now before his .218 BABIP corrects itself and his pretty ratios take a turn for the worse.

Final Verdict:

 

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