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Jay has so kindly asked me to take over this series for him.  He is passing on the metaphorical golden baton onto me.  I’m going to coat this puppy in silver, because gold is tacky.  To start things off, I decided talk about a guy who I think flies under the radar, Madison Bumgarner.  First off, how awesome is his name!?!  That’s reason enough to buy this guy.  Who names their boy Madison anymore?  Awesome parents, that’s who.  If you’re actually curious about baby Madisons, click here.  Don’t ask why I know about that website, all I know is that it’s super interesting…at least to me it is.  Back to our topic now.  On top of Madison, his last name is Bumgarner!  He is literally collecting booty, c’mon.  Oh look, a double entendre, I’ll clarify.  He is married, so I think he is all set on that booty front.  As for Pirate booty (Giants booty?), he is squared away too.  He signed a 5 year, $35 million contract after his second full season, at age 22!  YARGH, that’s a lot of booty!

I want to say that I think the Giants are cursed.  They had a crazy top three rotation in 2011.  Tim Lincecum went down swinging in 2012, and Matt Cain followed suit in 2013.  Is this the year of the Maddy Bum?  Nah…It can’t be…I hope not.  I have him in a couple leagues right now, so he isn’t allowed to suck.  If he does, well then I’ll probably just cry and watch reruns of Friends while I eat a pint of Ben and Jerry’s Ameri-Cone Dream.  That shizz is awesome.  Anyway, I’m here to talk about Bumgarner, not my Saturday nights.

I don’t think Bumgarner gets enough credit.  Since 2005, he is one of only fourteen pitchers to break 180 innings in a season before 22.  In fact, he did it twice before he was 22.  The only others to manage that were Cain and Felix Hernandez, who actually managed to pull it off three times.  Should I raise the IP limit to 200?  Yeah, let’s do that:

Season

Name

Team

Age

W

L

GS

IP

ERA

2010

Clayton Kershaw

Dodgers

22

13

10

32

204.1

2.91

2011

Madison Bumgarner

Giants

21

13

13

33

204.2

3.21

2012

Madison Bumgarner

Giants

22

16

11

32

208.1

3.37

2008

Felix Hernandez

Mariners

22

9

11

31

200.2

3.45

2007

Matt Cain

Giants

22

7

16

32

200

3.65

What?!?!  That looks like pretty elite company to me, and he killed it.  Now one of you is going to say something about blowing his arm out.  Well I’m not buying that.  He turns 25 near the end of the season, and he hasn’t missed a single start since his full time promotion in 2010.  Go try to find an injury on him.  You won’t, it’s not there.  No day-to-days, no nothing!  He has a cleaner slate than after I got my juvy record expunged.  There is currently a warrant out for my arrest for stealing some ice cream.

If you were worrying about his pitch velocity, there’s no need to fear, velocity is here!  All of his pitch speeds are either stagnant, or slowly rising.  His slider velocity has seen the most improvement, going from 84.4 mph in 2010 to 87.5 mph last year.  Speaking of his slider, it seems like it his most important pitch.  Here is his pitch usage since 2010 (along with his K/9 each season):

Season

FB%

SL%

CU%

CH%

K/9

2010

59.30%

18.00%

11.20%

11.10%

6.97

2011

55.20%

28.20%

10.90%

5.10%

8.40

2012

45.50%

36.40%

9.80%

7.80%

8.25

2013

39.60%

36.80%

13.30%

9.70%

8.90

He has been using his slider twice as often since 2010, while his fastball usage fell.  When he started cranking out his slider, his K/9 rate grew by over 1 whole K/9!  Okay, when I say it like that, it sounds underwhelming.  What if I said his K/9 rate went up over 20% from 2010 to 2011?  Does that sound more convincing?  I guess Mad Bum learned he has a pretty gnarly slider.  Since 2011, his slider has been the best in baseball in cumulative runs saved (48.9).  That being said, I don’t see him getting up over the 9 K/9 hump, which is the only thing keeping him from becoming a super-mega-ultra-elite pitching option.

I also want to give a quick shout out to Mad Booty’s WHIP and SwStr% (Swinging strike percentage, for all you non-nerds out there).  I made this Giants-themed graph for him, look at those pretty colors.  I also taught myself how to make double Y-axes in Excel for this.  I love Excel more and more each day:

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see everything has been heading in the correct direction.  But it’s a good thing I have that rocket science degree anyway; my mommy always taught me that it’s better to be safe than sorry.  I don’t think the WHIP will keep going down nor do I think the SwStr% will keep going up.  But I think they should end somewhere between his 2012 and 2013 levels.  Definitely not complaining over here.

Right now, Bumgarner’s ADP is 48.4, which is good enough to be ranked as the 11th best starting pitcher, sandwiched between Chris Sale and David Price.  Monsieurs Gilpin and Albright have him ranked 7th and 7th (respectively), which is probably close to where I would put him too.  That means he will be available around the end of the 4th round/beginning of the 5th round.  While he won’t give you super elite K’s (200 is near ceiling), he will give you peace of mind, which is more than you can say about some other high ranking pitchers…I’m looking at you, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Cliff Lee.  He has a good deal of upside, especially for such a high ranking pitcher, and is in my top five for pitching keeper options.

Drum roll please!

 

Jeremy is a contributor for Razzball Baseball. He had a last name, but he lost it in ‘Nam.  You can follow the soldier of misfortune on twitter @Jeremy_Razzball, just don’t trigger his flashbacks.

  1. Jay

    Jay says:
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    My baby has been left in great hands. Bravo

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Jay: I had a good teacher ;)

  2. Principal Blackman says:
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    Great stuff, Jeremy. Love me some Madbum. It is insane that dude will still be under 25 for most of the season. I’ve owned him in leagues every year since he came up in 2010 (I’m not counting that cup of coffee in ’09). This is the first year where I have yet to land him in a league although I still have half a chance at nabbing him as I have a couple of leagues yet to draft, though he may be kept in one of them (hard to say b/c it’ll cost his owner a 3rd round pick at the least).

    Speaking of leagues that have yet to draft…
    Sign up for this RCL I just created today. Only 9 spots left to fill.
    http://games.espn.go.com/flb/leagueoffice?leagueId=192638
    Password is jerriblank

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Principal Blackman: Shameless plug I see! Mad Bum is one of my favorite players. So solid, so consistent, so young. Reminds me of an older version of myself (time travel).

    • @Principal Blackman: how do I join your league i would like to join, I did not see a button to push to join..lol..help me out here..cheers

  3. Tehol Beddict says:
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    I prefer Ashley Madison

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Tehol Beddict: I prefer Ashley Olsen.

      • Tehol Beddict says:
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        @Jeremy: touche

      • Principal Blackman says:
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        @Jeremy: I prefer Ashley Cole.

      • Piranhaman says:
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        @Jeremy: i prefer Ashley Judd.

        • Tehol Beddict says:
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          @Piranhaman: Ashley Simpson??? Nahhhhhh. well, I supposed post rhinoplasty and boob job she aint bad

  4. Sky

    Sky says:
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    I’m not gonna lie, didn’t read a word of it. I just came for the sweet bull pics (literally and figuratively…which was also literally I guess).

    • Tehol Beddict says:
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      @Sky: how you ever seen a bull and cow mate? Its breathtaking

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Sky: I have a hard drive full of bull pics, over 100 GB. I can send you some if you need a fix.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        I’m getting a dropbox account for just this sole reason.

  5. Kid A says:
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    Great article Jeremy.

    Madison always seems to go just a bit too early for me at his round 3-4 ADP. If he ever slipped just a little bit farther, I’d anchor every staff with him.

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Kid A: Fair enough. I like taking my first pitcher in the 4th-5th round, so I get him sometimes, other times I don’t.

      • de nachos says:
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        @Jeremy: you found a nice groove with this article, well done. As 9th SP off the board in points league I had to reach in the 3rd but couldn’t be happier, I like him more than Price and was gun shy about anchoring a $$ staff with a Cobb-Teheran. I’m waving the flag with you.

        • Jeremy

          Jeremy says:
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          @de nachos: Thanks, I think this is the best article I’ve written so far. I would take him over Price anyday. I have Price as my #1 in a league, and I desperately want to get rid of him. Mad Bum/Cobb/Teheran would be a schmexy 1-2-3 punch.

          • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
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            @Jeremy: in most 12 teamers to get cobb/madbum/teheran you’d have to grab mad at around where you’re saying (i’d do 5th round), cobb anywhere from 85 or so up to maybe 120th (which i’ve done most places), and probably have to get lucky on teheran, or be willing to have 3 starters before 120th (120′s reserved this year for first closer, usually K-Rob/Uehera/Rosie); basically i’ll never get 4 pitchers that early (4 before 11th round), not this year. Last year it was grab Scherzer and Bailey in every league (which was doable), or Bailey/Scherzer/Lee in uneducated 10 teamers.

            • Jeremy

              Jeremy says:
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              @Montezuma’s Revenge… right now: I don’t do snake drafts usually, mostly only for the RCL stuff. But you make a valid point. This year I am for 2-3 SP by the end of the 12th round. Every 4th round has been working out decently when I mocked.

  6. spm7189 says:
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    Great write up! Love me some MadBum even though I haven’t owned him in any leagues since ’12 (never seemed to get the chance to after that season). I’m thinking he’s gonna finish the season with a K/9 a tick over 9.00
    On a marginally related note – how much do we like Erasmo Ramirez right now? He’s been one beautiful S.O.B. this spring and between park and pedigree I can’t deny the attraction. Unfortunately for me the only way he ends up on my team right now is if I drop one of Carlos Martinez or Taijuan Walker. If I did drop someone it’d probably be Martinez but I just don’t know if I can pull the trigger. [For context - 12-team H2H with W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP and QS]

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @spm7189: I’m glad you liked it! There is a Bum-shaped hole in my heart. I wrote half of a sentence about Erasmo in another article of mine:

      “Paxton is worth a shot on a late round pick, Erasmo isn’t worth much of anything until he proves himself further.”

      I’ll stick by that for now. Watch him, unless you’re desperate. He is owned in 1.4% of leagues on ESPN, so I doubt he’s going anywhere soon.

  7. Chicken Dinner says:
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    What’ s your take on Hale? Grabbed a spot in the ‘tation. Think he has the stuff to stick? I liked what he did in his cup o’ coffee last year.

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Chicken Dinner: I assume we’re talking David Hale. He only threw 11 innings last year…hardly a decent sample size. I’d say he is worth a flier in deep leagues. Otherwise, just streaming. If he comes out of the gate throwing fireballs though, pick his Mad Bum up.

      • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
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        @Jeremy: Hale’s NOT expected to keep up a high K rate, he’s a control guy. Good streamer though, probably.

  8. Fireball Feliz says:
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    Nice Article, I got Tight BUMgarner with the 52nd pick in a 10 team league. ahhhhmazing if I say so myself

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Fireball Feliz: Noice. Praise the Mad Bum.

  9. Malon says:
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    Pertaining to your Baby name graph: Go look up the movie Splash. Seriously, that’s the reason why.

  10. Joe G says:
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    Jeremy Iam trying to get a good pitcher which trade you like moré yadier molina and Nelson cruz for max scherzer or yadier molina for Gio González and Wilson Ramos or jose reyes for max scherzer? Iam the owner of molina,cruz,reyes

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Joe G: If you can give up Yadi for Gio and Ramos, go for it. That trade is heavily in your favor.

      • Joe G says:
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        @Jeremy: thanks the trade has been acepted molina for Gio and Wilson Ramos

        • Jeremy

          Jeremy says:
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          @Joe G: You just pulled off an absolute trade massacre. Congrats.

  11. Nico

    Nico says:
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    Jeremy, good stuff! I’ll agree w/ Big A that I’d like to see Bums slip to the 5th round before taking him, but you make a great argument for still getting value if you take him at his ADP. I think SwStr% became my fav stat early last year when I learned how to harness it’s power!

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Nico: Thanks! SwStr% is a wonderful thing. According to Fantasypros.com, he is going around 47-48th overall. So late 4th/early 5th round. I try to take Bumgarner in the 4th because I know he won’t make it back. If I can’t get him, Sale is the next guy on my list.

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Asst2RegionalMgr: I think he can hold up…I hope he can hold up.

  12. Shake N Bacon says:
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    I traded Mad Bum for Kinsler in my keeper league last year. I deserve a punch in the face.

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Shake N Bacon: Yup. Only 2B that you should trade Mad Bum for in a keeper are Cano, Kipnis, and PedROIDa.

      • Shake N Bacon says:
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        @Jeremy: I see the error in my ways now.

        ha, if Pedroia is on roids, he’s getting hosed by his supplier.

        • Jeremy

          Jeremy says:
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          @Shake N Bacon: They watered his supply down probably. Don’t trust roid vendors.

  13. Alky Sobrera says:
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    Great article Jeremy. One small quibble, The Adverb can’t be grouped with Scherz/Stras now. If he doesn’t give peace of mind, I don’t really understand the threshold. I mean, I get the W/L nonsense from the year before, but W/L is pretty fluky anyway. The dude is consistent as any out there imo.

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Alky Sobrera: I didn’t explain my reasoning for each of the three, although I think the reasons were fairly obvious.

      Scherzer-Regression candidate
      Stras-Injury risk
      Adverb-Age factor

      I can’t trust a 35 year old pitcher at Cliff Lee’s price tag. If he was going 125th overall maybe, but I don’t want to take a 3rd round risk on a pitcher that age.

      • Alky Sobrera says:
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        @Jeremy:
        I get the age thing, though I’m not sure his peripherals warrant much concern. Some velo loss, but everything else in terms of pitch values and swing% seemed pretty much in line with career norms. If a drop off is coming, I don’t see anything that shows it’ll be precipitous.
        Anyway, I don’t take any pitchers in the first 5-6, so the price tag is too high for me with either guy, but isn’t “125th overall maybe” more than a bit of an exaggeration? I guess it’s for added emphasis…

        • Jeremy

          Jeremy says:
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          @Alky Sobrera: What I meant about the 125th overall is that I won’t take a 35 year old pitcher before 125th overall, unless they fall to me. I would take Cliff Lee in the 6th round, if that ever happened.

      • Alky Sobrera says:
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        @Jeremy:
        Anyway, appreciate the reply, and again, great article.

        • Jeremy

          Jeremy says:
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          @Alky Sobrera: Of course, no probs. I’m glad you enjoyed the article. :D

  14. Tom Emanski says:
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    I got him at 47 this year and I’m looking forward to a Cy caliber season. I just hope the usage of sliders and cutters doesn’t come back to bite him.

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Tom Emanski: Mad Bum is one of the safest pitchers in the top 15. The only others I think are as safe are: Kershaw, King Felix, Sale, (maybe Darvish-the opening day scratch hurts a bit).

      • RotisserieJedi says:
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        @Jeremy: Love MadBum, but ever since Grey hyped him up last year and he delivered, he’s been tough to get at a good price. I have not seen him fall to the fifth round of ANY draft, and I’m still allergic (due to Razzball Indoctrination Protocol) to taking a pitcher before round 5, especially when batters in my top 25 overall are still on the shelf!

        One more RCL people. Get it while it’s hot!

        Name: The League of Extraordinary Gentiles
        Link: http://games.espn.go.com/flb/tools/join?leagueId=195152
        Password: razzmataz

  15. Joe G says:
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    Jermey who you prefer David wright or freddie freeman?

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Joe G: Depends on what you need. If you need some steals, Wright. If you need extra counting stats (R/RBI), Freeman. AVG and HR will be roughly equivalent.

      • Joe G says:
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        @Jeremy: David wright health concerns me i dont know or would you prefer Carlos Beltrán and tony cingrani for freddie freeman?

        • Jeremy

          Jeremy says:
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          @Carns: No problem. @Joe G: I’m not high on Beltran, so I’ll take Freeman.

  16. Carns says:
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    It’s a general rule of thumb that if your name can also be a girl’s name, it really isn’t that cool. That said, I love Madison this year, I just hope I can afford him. $20 would be about my limit, and, aside from Teheran, will be about $10-15 more than any other pitcher I get. There’s just so much value in paying low $20′s for a guy who can win the CY. Also, it is interesting that you brought up his (lack of) injury history. Watching him throw, it looks like he is has a very smooth delivery, almost effortless. When I start to sound pseudo-scouty I know my comment has run its course. Thanks for the article.

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Carns: Thanks. I’d go up to $24/25 for Maddy. But I also value pitching more highly than most Razzball readers, who adhere to Grey’s methodology fairly strictly.

  17. Carns says:
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    This comment section has me confused. Where are the 237 comments seeking character reinforcement therapy via post-draft analysis from Grey? Every time I see a comment that starts off, “Great article as always, Grey. Nice mustache! Just did a 6×6 (OPS, QS) 12-team…” I want to start swigging a bottle of vodka, take some downers, put on “Beyond the Realms of Death” and blow my brains out. Fortunatley, I learned to recognize the physical appearance of those comments years ago and now I just skip down to something more substantive. Been on cloud 9 ever since.

    • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
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      @Carns: wait about three weeks or so, that number will invert itself to 723 or so.

    • Spammer Jay says:
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      @Carns: hahahahaha. So true. But you got to give props to grey and these guys for doing this every freakin day. Grey even reads those long ass ones where it’s like who gives a damn the details of your eague rules and regulations. Grey even comments inside other writers articles. He could write a book on patience and or customer service. And it would be hillarious. Its all about the passion and I hope they all get rich from this superb content.

  18. Spammer Jay says:
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    Nice write up and analysis. Honestly I only read it because I just had a baby (my wife did anyways) and we named her Madison (was angling for Giancarlo but I got vetoed). I found that baby weblink when we were researching the name and it is interesting how names come in and out of fasion. But in Madison’s case thanks to the movie Splash in he 80′s (you millinals out there don’t bother… it features young Tom hanks and a mermaid in a bath tub…. Yeah and it’s not in hd. ) it became a popular girls name when it was exclusively for boys and eventually blew up around 2000. Hollywooood! Bum is one of the few in his generation not only for his arm.

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Spammer Jay: You shoulda named the kid “Norichika”.

  19. Rugs says:
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    Let’s hope the Giants can put up some runs so Mad Bum can win 16+ games again. I think he makes a leap in that category in 2014

    My guess is 17-18 wins

    Nice job on the article! ????????

    • Rugs says:
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      @Rugs:

      No emoji!!!!! :( ???? = clapping

      • Jeremy

        Jeremy says:
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        @Rugs: Wins are a finicky stat. I’m a quality start man.

  20. Brian says:
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    Someone in my league has offered me Bumgarner for Sale…I can’t help but feel like a regression in ERA for Bum will leave me on the short end of this trade since it would cost me some K’s. On the other hand, as a Giants fan it would be fun as hell to have MadBum in my rotation…what to do?

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Brian: I like Mad Bum more than Sale, but barely. I rank them one after the other. You can do the trade if you want, but it seems like a frivolous trade.

      • Brian says:
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        @Jeremy: Cool…I was thinking along those lines too. Appreciate your input!

Comments are closed.