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As many of you know, I went in a new direction to get inspiration for what player I will cover.  I took a page out of Who Wants to be a Millionaire’s playbook and I asked the audience.  That audience only has four choices though…you guys had over four hundred.  Here are you results:

Votes 6-30-14

There isn’t much need for a drum roll though, unless none of you read the titles of these things.  Ah yes, Michael Brantley, how your owners love you so.  If you were lucky enough to draft him, probably after 200th overall, you’re getting a great bang for your buck.  Brantley is a top ten outfielder right now, and arguably a top five one.  On draft day, the tenth outfielder was going around twenty-fifth to thirtieth overall.  And the player drafted probably had a name like Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig, or Jose Bautista.  Just for kicks and giggles, let’s compare Brantley’s season to everyone’s favorite outfielder, Mike Trout:

Player R HR RBI SB AVG OBP
Trout 49 16 54 9 .303 .394
Brantley 49 11 46 9 .320 .386

Looks comparable, if you ask me…

Category One: Injury Risk

I always have trouble writing this section of the article.  Most players don’t have anything significantly outlandish when it comes to being injury prone.  In turn, it can make this section slightly dull.  I try to compensate for this by lowering the point value in this category.  Unfortunately for us, Brantley is pretty run of the mill when it comes to injury risks.

Brantley has had his share of missed games, just like any other player.  He recently missed three games after a mishap sliding into second base.  Here is a poor attempt of GIF making by me:

Brantley-Hit-in-Face

Clearly this injury wasn’t his fault, as getting kneed in the head is an extenuating circumstance.  He is back in action now, and he seems to be picking up where he left off (3/9 with an RBI).  So I’m not too worried about him on that front.  2011 was Brantley’s first year in the majors, and the only year Brantley has hit the DL.  He was able to play 114 games that year.  Combined between 2012 and 2013 he played in 300 out of a possible 324 games, or 92.59%.

Anticipate 145+ games from Brantley.

Score: 4 out of 5

Category Two: Everything Else

Since Brantley is one of the biggest breakouts this year, I want to see what’s different when compared to the last few years.  First I’ll start with hit location.

Brantley is great at using the whole field to his advantage.  Below is his spray chart from 2011 until present:

Brantley Spray Chart

If you want to see what that spray chart looks like in number form, I’ve got that too:

2011 2012 2013 2014 Total
Pull 47.50% 36.48% 33.54% 43.62% 39.36%
Center 34.17% 40.88% 43.04% 34.04% 38.79%
Opposite 18.33% 22.64% 23.42% 22.34% 21.85%

Just over one in five of Brantley’s hits go the opposite way.  Notorious pull hitters have about one in ten hits go the opposite way (Mark Teixeira or Gary Sheffield).  And he is consistent when it comes to that twenty percent mark, never straying more than four percentage points away from it.  The reason I bring this up is because of this next graph:

Brantley Spray Averages

All of a sudden he is getting hits in the opposite direction, and a lot of them.  I don’t know why he is doing this, but I’m going to throw out a guess, so bear (or bull) with me.

In general, pitchers tend to pitch Brantley low and outside:

Brantley Pitch Location

I do not have this data, but I would suspect that pitches that are low and outside are harder to pull because you have to reach for them and it is harder to get around on a pitch like that.  Given this information, I am going to assume a larger portion of balls hit in this section will be sent towards left field.  I am going to look at the nine boxes in the bottom right corner for this, spanning from the center of the zone (431, 5.85%) to the bottom left corner (529, 7.18%).  This is Brantley’s average per year in that square:

2011 2012 2013 2014
Average 0.275 0.285 0.298 0.330

That looks pretty significant to me.  Especially since pitchers love throwing to him there.  I’d say this section of the strike zone has to do a lot with Brantley’s improvements this year.  Part of that might go hand in hand with this next chart:

2011 2012 2013 2014 Total
Z-Swing% 50.30% 57.10% 59.60% 60.70% 54.70%
Z-Contact% 94.70% 96.50% 95.50% 95.40% 95.70%

Z-Swing% is how often a batter swings at pitches inside the strike zone.  Brantley has gotten much better at doing that, 20.68% better to be exact.  When you couple this with the fact that he is making roughly the same amount of contact as always, the end result is more balls being hit.  Now some of those are bound to go out of play, but many of them will stay in play.  This, in turn, can explain some of the reason that his BABIP is up to 0.324 this year, from 0.304 last year.  Quick players are able to sustain higher BABIPs, so I wouldn’t expect regression on that end.  Since I haven’t done further research on MB’s speed, I’m basing his speed solely on him averaging fourteen stolen bases a season between 2011 and 2013.

There is one last thing I wanted to look at: Is Brantley struggling or exceling with certain pitches?  I charted Brantley’s average against different pitch types.  Below is said chart:

Brantley Average by Pitch

I removed the pitch types that didn’t have drastic changes in average, or didn’t have a large enough sample size.  As you can see, hopefully, Brantley has gotten very good at hitting cutters and curves.  While he has lost some steam with the curve from last year, where he batted 0.392 against it, he has been consistently gaining ground against the cutter.  He is hitting an unreal 0.500 against it this year.  I do expect that number to fall, but by how much is uncertain.  He clearly has the cutter’s number.  It’s up to Brantley if he decides to call it back the next day.  On the other hand, he seems to have forgotten how to hit a changeup.  It doesn’t seem to be affecting him too much, since he is still sitting pretty with an average well over 0.300 and ninety four hits over seventy six games.

Score: 10 out of 15

Overall Score: 14 out of 20

Weighted Score: 140%

Remember to leave a comment about the player you want analyzed for next time!

Bull

Jeremy is a contributor for Razzball Baseball. He had a last name, but he lost it in ‘Nam.  You can follow the soldier of misfortune on twitter @Jeremy_Razzball, just don’t trigger his flashbacks.

  1. The Guru

    The Guru says:
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    Tip of the turban, Jeremy. Good stuff.

  2. what the Turbanator said….goes double for me…

  3. YoMammaSoUggla says:
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    Very nice.

    From an analytics perspective, what do you think about J.D. Martinez?

    Figuring things out and breaking out at the magical age of 27’ish, or just having a decent run? Even if he’s figured something out, he’s obvioulsy not going to stay this hot.

    Since we’re in Detroit, what up with Miggy?

    I just traded Springer, Hammels, Kazmir and Donaldson for him. A lot, I know, but my team is pretty solid otherwise.

    12-team. Weekly roster. 5 SP, 2 RP

    C Mike Zunino
    1B Justin Morneau
    2B Dee Gordon
    3B Miguel Cabrera
    SS Asdrubal Cabrera
    OF Mike Trout
    OF Giancarlo Stanton
    OF Matt Kemp
    OF Khris Davis
    OF J.D. Martinez
    UTIL Curtis Granderson
    Bench Mookie Betts
    Bench Mark Trumbo*
    Bench Jason Heyward

    SP Yu Darvish
    SP Julio Teheran
    SP Josh Beckett
    SP Jake Arrieta
    SP Taijuan Walker
    RP David Robertson
    RP Danny Duffy

    Bench Mike Minor Atl
    Bench Henderson Alvarez Mia
    DL James Paxton* Sea

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @YoMammaSoUggla: JD was a decently hot prospect a couple years back, so it’s not a complete surprise he comes around. Hold him and ride the wave. That was a lot to give up for Miggy. Shoulda held onto Donaldson.

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Great post, Jeremy!

  5. Buddo Chezuski says:
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    Best CI guy for ROS: Belt, Fatt Adams, LaRoche

  6. jmill says:
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    Cool post, but have to point out that Trout’s season line as of today is .315/55r/19hr/62rbi/10sb and Brantley’s is .316/55r/12hr/54rbi/9sb.

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @jmill: Yeah yeah…I wrote that part a couple days back and I didn’t update it. Oops!

  7. Swaz says:
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    H2H points league rest of season, pick 3: Beltran, A Rios, Werth, M Morse, Eaton

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Swaz: Rios, Werth, Morse. By a decent stretch.

  8. Richie says:
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    Good shizz, son. Too bad Kipnis seems immune to the Brantley bug.

    Trade question for you: Khrush for Shields?

    Got a glut of OF and trying to make up ground in ERA/WHIP/QS; 10 teamer ESPN. Dude is looking to move Shields – you think he perks up under my tutelage or just fux with my ratios the rest of the way?

    Sanks, holla at ya boy!

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Richie: Keep Khris. Shields isn’t looking too hot right now.

  9. Benny says:
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    I streamed Jason Vargas in a standard 5×5 12 team mixed league, do I hold him for his start against the Rays? I am above pace for IP and have been thinking of putting a reliever in, such as Tony Watson since I have a sizable lead on Wins and Ks but need help in ratios. Thoughts?

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Benny: Why take a risk on it?

  10. Lubey says:
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    Wow super informative; great post. As an owner of Brantley, also glad to see these results!!

  11. Joe says:
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    Jeremy who you like more right now Jayson werth o james jones?

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Joe: Jones. I wasn’t a fan of Werth a couple months back. Jones is looking good.

  12. allen says:
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    Whats your thoughts on altuve ROS? I offered brantley for him as i have plenty of OF depth.

  13. Tulogit says:
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    Great post! Arenado coming off DL. Chisenhall has done more than carry his weight. So, who do I look to trade? Arenado or Chisenahall. I was gonna shop Chisenhall, but want to make sure I’m looking to dump the right guy. 12 team h2h. Thanks!!

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Tulogit: You’re making the right choice.

  14. Bob says:
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    If you had to drop one from this group. Who would it be? I have Arenado coming off Dl

    Heaney, Ventura, Tijuan Walker

    C-Ramos
    1b-Goldschmdt
    2b-altuvie
    SS-Hanley Ramirez
    3b-Beltre
    Of-Braun
    Of-Carlos Gomez
    Of-billy Hamilton
    Dh-Edwin Encarnacion
    B-George Springer
    B-Anthony Renton (2b,3b)
    B-Carlos Santanna (c,1b,3b,dh)
    B-Kole Calhoun
    Dl-Arenado
    P-Bumgardner
    P-tanka
    P-scherzer
    P-Zimmerman
    P-Anibal Sanchez
    RP-holland
    RP-Robertson
    B-sonny gray
    B-Cory kluber
    B-yordana Ventura
    B-Tijuan walker
    B-Heaney

    • Jeremy

      Jeremy says:
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      @Bob: Walker or Heaney. Leaning walker because I want to see more of Heaney.

  15. Barenrewn says:
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    I’m in a keeper league and have held onto both Goldschmidt and Abreu all season. I think now might be the time to sell. Who do you like long term?

  16. jo jo!!! says:
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    only 1 DL spot, who do I hold – Wacha or Gattis?

  17. ram says:
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    I know defense doesn’t do much for fanstasy pools. However, as a baseball purist (ie old) I love to watch Brantley play CF…..dude has a Cannon. He is like Jackie Bradley Jr., except he can hit.

  18. Tulogit says:
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    ROS Brantley or Polanco. Brantley?

Comments are closed.