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Madison Bumgarner will probably be on at least 75% of my teams this year.  In the rankings, which start this upcoming Monday, I’ve ranked him way higher than any rational person so I’m bound to have him.  You can’t even guess how high I have him.  I mean, you can, but even if you’re right I’m not going to say like how you used to guess your Christmas gifts and your mom would say, “You’ll have to wait and see,” or “Only Santa knows for sure.”  Last year, Bumgarner had an ERA of 3.21 and a K-rate of 8.40.  Those are solid numbers, but they shouldn’t get me all goose-pimply.  So what gives and what exactly can we expect of Madison Bumgarner for 2012 fantasy baseball and what makes him a keeper?

No other pitcher last year had as high a K-rate as Bumgarner (8.40) with as low as a walk rate (2.02) except Halladay (8.47, 1.35) and The Adverb (9.21, 1.62).  Not Verlander.  Not Kershaw.  He was sixth in the NL for K/BB with a 4.15 rate.  When you’re striking guys out and not putting on runners, you’re setting yourself up for success.  Not to mention, most of the teams in his division would have a hard time scoring 3 or more runs in 2001 if they fielded 9 Bondses.  (Bondsii?  Nah, that sounds like tiny plants.)  Further — oh, yeah, I’m going further! — his home park is a pitcher’s park and he’s 22 years old.  Last year, he had 23 Quality Starts, which was the same number as Lincecum and his FIP was 2.67.  Yeah, it’s gonna be a good year for Bumgarner.  To give you an idea of how good of a year, please allow me to pull away the curtain and present my 2012 projections for Bumgarner… Three ladies and gentlemen, my Madison Bumgarner projections… A duck in a tuxedo?  Hmm… Sorry, went behind the wrong curtain.  Let’s try this one… My Madison Bumgarner 2012 projections… A 2012 Kia Soul!  Hmm, that’s not bad, still wrong curtain though.   Okay, last curtain… My Madison Bumgarner 2012 projections are…15-8/2.90/1.18/200.  There they are.

From Around The Web

  1. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    Seeking someone to step to the plate and take over the War Room this year. Auction Values expertise a plus.

  2. Chris says:
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    I agree with your assessment of Da’ Bum, but isn’t a bit of a stretch to predict wins and losses? On anyone?

  3. Terrence Mann says:
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    I have 11 starters in the top tier. Im guessing you’re taking Giant Bum right below that tier but above guys like Beckett, Shields, and Hudson….

    His biggest flaw in the West is the fact he doesn’t get to pitch against the Giants.

  4. chata says:
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    @ Grey :

    “…what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.”

  5. mike says:
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    for the record grey, i think this is a great prediction.

  6. mike says:
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    @chata it’s only because this is a really good prediction and something to be honestly excited to be about so grey can be incoherent if he wants, if anyone he’s earned it.

  7. Turd Ferguson says:
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    @mike:
    He’s quoting Billy Madison

  8. mrobs says:
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    Monday has now become Xmas for this lonely jew

  9. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    I like it… sticking your neck out there… Ala 2012 Joey Bautista prediction. I definitely agree with the overall numbers are possible, i think the wins might be a little rough in SF, but you never know… Great post.

  10. Oregon Nut Cups

    Oregon Nut Cups says:
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    @chata:

    Don’t worry, I get it :)

  11. Oregon Nut Cups

    Oregon Nut Cups says:
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    Madison’s April is the only thing holding him back from being talked about like this everywhere. I hope your call is right, Grey, since he’s my main keeper pitcher this year :)

  12. bpro says:
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    Keep Bumgarner over Kennedy? I can keep one of these two pitcher for the same cost in 2012. Having a tough time with it…

  13. redpanda says:
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    Great post. I had MadBum on my team most of last year and fell in love with the kid. At only 22, he’s bound to get better. If he can avoid a few games where things blow up like they did last year, I can easily see him ranking within the 6-10 range for starters at year’s end.

  14. Sefiroh says:
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    who is the adverb?

  15. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    Waiting for a sleeper post on Alejandro De Aza. Decent all around player, with the ability to hit 10-15 HR and steal 30+ bases with a good average. Left field is his to lose (against Brent Lillibridge). Good be a great steal late in the draft.

  16. vinko says:
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    @Sefiroh: Cliff Lee

  17. Wake Up says:
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    @Sefiroh: @vinko: cuz he couldn’t modify a noun if he tried…

  18. Wake Up says:
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    “As the dolomite cliffly screed”…Hemingway

  19. Eddy says:
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    @Sefiroh:

    Cliff Lee.

    @Grey

    WOAH. Look at that sexy prediction. Feisty, Grey. I love it. Will take your word for it and go after him everywhere I can as well.

  20. Wake Up says:
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    I’m not trying to sow seeds in Uranus here but dude’s got near Brett Anderson slider numbers…

  21. sean says:
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    MadBum’s MDC ADP is currently 77. I thought this was too rich for my blood, but seeing Ricky Romero being drafted in the 80s made MadBum seem like real value by comparison.

  22. Pops says:
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    Rankings… drool. Is it Monday yet?

  23. NV Chris says:
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    “The Adverb” cracks me up, and made me think. Three Lees in the league (Cliff, Derek and Carlos). A white guy, an African-American and a Panamanian.

    Lee is the most popular Asian last name. Hmm…..

  24. Wake Up says:
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    I’m not trying to rototill your lower back. I’m a big fan of tall, 200 K guys with good control. Just making sure that my own expectations are wained, right?

  25. chata says:
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    @Grey:
    @Wake Up:

    not to worry .
    i don’t think the official “jinx” season begins until a certain kiwi fella
    gives the green light .

    @Wake Up:

    re : #25
    nice .

  26. Pretty Toney says:
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    @Grey any mocks coming up? let’s do the damn thang

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Pretty Toney: You readers should get a mock together.

  28. Steve says:
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    @chata: You’re on the clock.

    @Grey: When I’m browsing the Razz on my iPad, the page keeps flicking back to the top of the post. Think it’s when I’m in the comments. I’m reading one and then next minute I’m back at the top of the page…

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Hmm… Okay, will ask my web guy if he has any ideas.

  30. Steve says:
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    Goodness me. Just saw something on Twitter about the Rangers having a meeting with Prince.

    And not the one who used to call himself ‘Tafkap’…

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: That would be a nice landing spot.

  32. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    @Steve: Prince would be a BEAST in Arlington, and with that lineup protection as well.

  33. SwaggerJackers says:
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    Razzball gave my computer at work a virus TWICE in the past 2 months. There must be a shady advertiser on here. It puts annoying fake “Win 12″ antivirus spam all over my machine.

    On a brighter note – MadBum is the first exciting sleeper of the season!

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @SwaggerJackers: A tag was giving the alert that there was a virus but no actual virus as far as I could tell. It was removed about a week ago, so there should be no more issue. If there is let me know…

  35. David Bowies Cousin says:
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    Tommy Hanson or the ‘Bum’? Injury and really bad press aside (ahem…see above) I have Tommy Guns a little higher in the draft board. Potential is all we have no?

  36. David Bowies Cousin says:
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    Ha! Guess I set myself up. No answer?

  37. David Bowies Cousin says:
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    Oh sorry I thought you were talking about something else….

  38. I’m usually a breast man, but I will be grabbing some bumgarner come draft time.

  39. royce! says:
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    Jesus Montero to sEA for Pineda! Craziness!

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Wow, that’s huge.

  41. Steve says:
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    @royce! and Grey: Kuroda signed with the Yanks too. One-year deal.

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Someone must’ve woke Cashman up.

  43. Steve says:
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    Worth remembering that even the FOURTH-best team in the AL East can make a real mess of your pitching…

  44. Jay says:
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    @Grey: Did Montero, Pineda, and Kuroda just become impossible to predict because of the park changes?

  45. chata says:
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    dealing pineda to the yanks ?

    how is it that the only person , in america , stupid enough to do this ,
    is actually the guy in charge in seattle ??

    unless …..
    i still have some questions about pineda’s rapid growth spurt .
    it’s not so much the added 20-30 pounds ,
    but does it sound right (normal) that a 22 year old kid could add
    2 inches in height , over the course of a summer ?

    i was actually in the process , last night , of trying to track down a
    seattle mariner’s blogger …. to see if he could confirm/verify this
    growth spurt , that i 1st heard about while listening to a mariner’s broadcast last summer .

  46. EDUB says:
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    Traded Jennings for Pineda in my keeper last night…not sure how I feel about this. Swaped better park for better run support, but that division is a killer

  47. Terrence Mann says:
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    Kuroda signs with the Yanks? That’s worse than Boston! Although, nice for you. I know…might as well flush my droid minus the Kuroda superpowers down the toilet.

  48. SwaggerJackers says:
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    Now Jesus is still a young DH but in a worse park. Is Seattle still waiting on Smoak to be the next Tex?

  49. Blazer says:
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    So I’m in a 16 man, 5 keeper league. My keepers are Adrain Beltre, Andrew McCutchen, David Price, Eric Hosmer and Felix Hernandez. I just got offered King Felix for Pineda and an early second round pick. I feel Pineda could be a Felix type of guy but I would just like to see what you thought of it.

  50. nyydj2 says:
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    Tim Tebow has just released a statement that vilifies the Yankees for not accepting Jesus and praising the Mariners for welcoming him into their lives…..

  51. JD Hassett

    JD Hassett says:
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    TO: simply Fred – What do you need done for the War Room – I have more time than usual

  52. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    latest article at mlb is listing pineda at 6′-7″ … 260 lbs .
    interested to see what the yanks announce him at , during spring training .

    in september , mariners’ announcers were saying that the media info
    must be mistaken , as the kid was closer to 6′-9″ … 290 .

    big diff .

  53. A2K says:
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    Greinke, Gallardo, Bumgarner?
    Or reverse it?
    Or transpose it?

    ‘And if peeing your pants is cool, consider me Miles Davis.’

  54. Muchacho says:
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    Good morning Grey, I’d be interested to know in what order you’d rank the starting Hodgepadres.

    Tim Stauffer
    Clayton Richards
    Edinson Volquez
    Cory Luebke
    Dustin Moseley

    thanks

  55. Paul Molitov says:
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    Grey: Bum, Shields, C. Luebke

    Is that how you would rank them?

  56. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    @SwaggerJackers: I know that they’re considering Prince as well (or were). So i’m not to sure how sold they are on Smoak.

    IMO i think Carp is the better first basement / fantasy player then smoak. although Smoak was the “higher” rated prospect. he hasn’t shown much in the bigs. (but i guess Carp hasn’t either). I know a guy in Seattle, he told me Carp is going to “run circles” (that’s a quote), around Smoak once he settles in.

  57. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jay: I don’t think so.

    @chata: Doesn’t seem that bad for the M’s. Montero’s a huge bat.

    @EDUB: Not sure how I’d feel about it either.

    @SwaggerJackers: I don’t think they’ve given up on Smoak yet.

    @Blazer: I’d take Felix.

    @nyydj2: Ha!

    @JD Hassett: I’ll make sure Fred sees your comment.

    @chata: That’s huge.

    @A2K: That’s close.

    @Muchacho: Luebke, Stauffer, Volquez…

    @Doug Ault: Nice

    @Paul Molitov: Yeah

  58. SwaggerJackers says:
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    @Grey: But have you given up on Smoak? Would you take him over Ike, Goldschmidt, Yonder, etc?

  59. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @SwaggerJackers: I’ve given up on him until he hits 25 homers in the major leagues, so yeah…

  60. SwaggerJackers says:
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    @The Talented Mr. Dope Man: If I recall correctly, Smoak started out the season well but really faded as the season wore on with injuries and slumps.

    I can’t say I know much about Carp but I’ll certainly be keeping an eye on him this season.

  61. The Talented Mr. Death Punch says:
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    Wrong sport… Bur Joe flacco is rocking one hell of a stache!

  62. Feeding the Abscess

    Feeding the Abscess says:
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    Prince landing in Texas could kill Nap’s value, unless Washington decides to play him 110 games at C.

    On topic, Bumgarner’s “slider” is about 4 MPH slower than his fastball. I’m willing to bet a good deal of those sliders are cutters.

  63. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey:

    McDonalds or Hardees for breakfast in the AM? A duck in a tuxedo? You haven’t changed a bit my friend………….

  64. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Mickey D’s all the way. Good to hear from you, hope you’re doing well.

  65. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: I am thanks, and I’ve got Mad Love for MadBum as well*

    * Insert Benny Hill joke here…………

  66. BigFatHippo says:
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    Incidentally, I’ll be hitting you up for advice on Hanson, Garcia, Beckett, King Felix and CJ in the near future.

    You know how I love me some pitching!

  67. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Or just insert Benny Hill music…. Sounds good, hit me up any time.

  68. TheNewGuy says:
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    Finally a keeper which I actually have! Someone I can feel good about at last, draft Mad-Bum for just $6 last year, got the nice headache of 1 yr $9, 2 yrs $12, or 3 yrs at $14 now. :)

    Note to self, never trade away cheap young studs like Lawrie and Jennings again! Especially as I still didn’t win despite the return I got.

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