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Kick this post off with a little side note copulation.  Big Stein had it all wrong when he called Dave Winfield, Mr. May.  Jason Bay is Mr. May.  From 2005 to 2009, he’s hit 9, 12, 4, 7 and 10 homers, respectively.  Each May has been his biggest home run production month.  Even in 2007 when he hit 4 homers, it was still his biggest homer month for that year and easily his best average month at .336.  Like a drunk middle-aged man at Fantasy Fest, Bay is streaky.  But side note, um, aside, what does it mean for Jason Bay’s fantasy value now that he’s on the Mets?  We call The Mets Answer To The Stadium Adjacent To The House That Ruth Built, Metco.  In jest, partly.  Let’s face it, it’s not Petco.  Petco’s like those old-timey stadiums that had the monuments in center field.  That isn’t Kyle Blanks, that’s a Nate Colbert statue.  Metco isn’t that bad.  It’s still no cup of chamomile.  It’ll hurt Bay’s value a tad bit to go from Fenway to Metco, but his splits weren’t terrible.  He only had a few Fenway-aided homers.  Fenway did more to help his average, Runs and RBIs.  315 foot doubles can do that.  But these are quibbles.  His value isn’t going down the drain in Flushing.  Is he a 36 homer hitter?  I doubt it.  But I didn’t think he was even in Fenway.  He’s a 27-32 homer guy who has 10+ steal speed.  His average is always the iffy category.  He’s not much more than a .275 hitter without some luck.  So you’re looking at 95/30/110/.275/12 in 2010.  Anyway, here’s some more trades, signings, whatever-you-want-to-call-its and what they mean for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Mark DeRosa – Just when you think the Giants have turned the corner from giving out contracts to aging vets, along comes DeRosa.  Maybe Rich Aurilla can teach him how to go from productive to albatross.  DeRosa has flexibility with his position eligibility but other than for your 5th outfielder spot, you can do better.

Kelly JohnsonLove him on the Diamondbacks. No, too much.  Intrigued by him on the Diamondbacks. Yeah, intrigued, cause I talk like Comic Book Guy.  In certain circumstances, I’m excited to draft Kelly Johnson late as my middle infielder.  Yeah, that’ll work.  Last year, Bobby Cox never gave Johnson a fair shake.  He benched him against lefties, sat him when he slumped, told him he’d never be Marcus Giles… It was a trying time for a guy with a girl’s first name.  An every day job could easily translate to a 15/10 season.  Sounds yawnstipating, but at MI and where he’ll be drafted he’ll be a steal late in 2010 drafts.

Marlon Byrd – Another former Ranger heads to Chicago.  Next year, the Cubs can grab Nelson Cruz.  Wrigley won’t kill Byrd’s value, but his value was marginal at best.  He’s really only worth owning in 12 team leagues when he’s hot.

Miguel Olivo – To the Rockies.  I already wrote a flippin’ Chris Iannetta sleeper post that I planned on posting in January.  Olivo’s signing kinda screws the pooch a little on that.  I’ll probably post it anyway because I do like Iannetta a lot for 2010 and I already wrote the stupid post.  As for Olivo, if your Iannetta’s half full, then Olivo’s a backup that can hit 15 homers in part-time duty.  If your Iannetta’s half empty, then Olivo’s starting three to four times a week and hitting 20 homers.

  1. Big Mike says:
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    @Grey: speaking of my Ianetta, why won’t Tracy just play the kid? He’d be a top 6-7 catcher if there was any assurance of AB!

  2. Bristol says:
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    With the Olivo signing, you have to steer clear of the Rockies catching situation unless you can land both and see who shakes out.
    I am really sour on Bay. To tell the truth, I have always been sour on him. He is like that girl you see on the other side of the bar that looks HOT then when you finally fight your way across the room to get to her, you realize that she is a Quasimoto look alike. Ill let some one else take him.

  3. Big Mike says:
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    @Bristol: I’m in an OBP league where Bay looks a lot hotter than in a AVG league.

  4. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Big Mike: yeah,im in an obp league also and he is nice to have,plus the mets will be better this year

  5. Russ says:
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    @Bristol:

    also known as: “good from far, but far from good”

  6. Ian says:
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    Starting to get excited for fantasy baseball (and only 3 months to go!). I sense rankings are coming soon!

  7. sean says:
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    Mets Opening Day Lineup? (CHONE)

    Reyes 94/13/56/46/.296 (541 ABs)
    Castillo 75/3/40/15/.281 (480)
    Beltran 82/22/82/13/.282 (454)
    Wright 97/23/98/20/.305 (568)
    Bay 98/34/105/7/.267 (529)
    Molina 40/17/71/0/.259 (468)
    Francoeur 75/18/88/3/.277 (596)
    Murphy 58/12/63/5/.274 (468)

    So many question marks, but this could also be the best offense in the NL if they are answered.

    To me, Beltran is the real interesting guy in this lineup. Will he be close to the 100/25/100/20/.300 guy that had us salivating in the second round? He’s currently sitting at an ADP of 65 and is, on average, the 20th selected outfielder behind guys like Hamilton, Ichiro, Dunn, Manny, and Bourn.

    In 308 ABs last year (49/10/47/11/.327) Beltran seemed on his way to having a monster season before he was derailed by a deep knee bruise. Obviously an aging center fielder with a bum knee raises some red flags, but can Beltran bounce back?

  8. big o says:
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    @sean:
    the best offense in the NL ?

    not even if all of your prayers are answered .

  9. sean says:
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    @big o:

    2008 (T-2 w/ Philly) 2007 (4th) 2006 (3rd). I’m hardly a Met fan, but I’ll put a healthy Reyes, Beltran, Bay, and Wright against any foursome in the league and I think they win (except maybe Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Werth/Ibanez).

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Big Mike: I agree. Probably a shot at top 5 if he were to play.

    @Bristol: Yeah, never been a huge believer in him. He does seem better than he is because he only really carries your team in May. By September, you forget why you ever liked him.

    @Ian: They are.

    @sean: This is a do or die year for Mets talent as far as fantasy goes. If Beltran, Reyes and Wright all underproduce, then people will be saying Metco has ruined them and they’ll all drop in rankings. More or less, I believe in a bounce back for all of them.

  11. Kid n' Play says:
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    Question,
    In my keeper league you get to keep up to 6 players in the rounds that they were drafted in the previous year. You are able to keep the players for a max of 3 years before they automatically become free agents.

    So I have Haren going into his final keeper eligibility season in the 8th round. I am thinking about trading Haren for Werth. Werth is a 7th round keeper and this will be his first season as a keeper. Is this a smart move?

    Grey, I haven’t seen you talk much about Werth… Do you think he will put up similar (if not better) numbers in 2010 as he did in 2009?

  12. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Kid n’ Play: First off, nice username. I’d take Werth over Haren with all things being equal. Werth was one of the more consistent hitters last year, posting nice month to month numbers. I see no reason why he should bomb in 2010.

  13. BSA says:
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    Alright – Football is over, I love my Celtics but not like, but not like baseball so lets go.

    Ianetta last year was one of those guys I would start getting frustrated with and then he would heat up and then crap the bad.

    I’ll probably ride him at catcher again this year. Olivio was always intriguing as he was at the top of the stats for catchers in FA.

    Werth was a very nice bat in my outfield, the steals were like icing on the cake. He was either hitting multiHR games or stealing bases. He seems like the type of outfielder you can sneak through in the later rounds. Then again I picked him up in round 10 and I think he will go higher in 2010.

  14. BSA says:
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    @BSA: Ugh – who are you Jimmy Two Times? -Celtics but not like, but not like baseball so lets go.

  15. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BSA: But not like… Hehe… Werth’s in a great lineup and park. 27/15 seems to be easy for him to reach. A 27/15 outfielder will go before the 10th round, for sure.

  16. BSA says:
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    @Grey: The Phillies do have a great lineup. I would take almost anyone of their top 6 batters.

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BSA: If Victorino bats 2nd instead of Polanco, I’d agree.

  18. Eddy says:
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    Grey, when you draft, do you do so with the mentality of trying to cover every category ( from SV, AVG, SB, WHIP,etc) or do you punt one or two and focus on more important categories like HR and RBI?

    Because as hard as I try in my mock drafts, I always end up with a 1.0 (lowest) in my AVG category and I think I’ve come to accept that’s my tendency and how it’s gonig to turn out come draft day. I do end up, however, in the top 3 of the projections but idk if I should strive for balance in EVERY category.

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: I tend to ignore average as well, but only to a certain degree. For instance, I wouldn’t draft, Reynolds, Dunn and Uggla on the same team. I don’t intentionally punt any category.

  20. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    What are the categories you place most value on?

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: HRs, Steals, Ks and WHIP.

  22. That Random Guy says:
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    Between the 15th and 20th rounds I try to pick up my 4th and 5th OF but I alwals end up getting split between the following group of guys either ebcause they MAY or may not have a breakout year (Coghlan) or They’re more or less reliable (Wells). Which two would you pick?

    Btw, I usually have either Abreu, Torii, Upton, or a power/steals like Granderson or Beltran on my OF by now.

    Juan Rivera
    Carlos Gomez
    Colby Rasumus
    Vernon Wells
    Chris Coghlan
    Nolan Reimold
    Julio Borbon
    Mike Cameron

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @That Random Guy: CarGo, Rasmus, Reimold and Borbon…

    *******THERE’S A NEW POST FOR COMMENTS.********

  24. eltoo says:
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    @grey: i’m surprised you listed steals as a top category you place value on. i feel like steals are a cheaper category to fill recently then it had been a few years ago, and if i have the lingo right….SAGNOF

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @eltoo: Sorry if I was confusing. What I meant by those categories is they are the easiest categories to pinpoint. For hitters, steals and homers are easiest because a guy with 40 homer power or 40 steal speed has those tools. Those tools don’t evaporate like average, Runs or RBIs can. RBIs and Runs are a product of lineups and situations. Average has a lot to do with luck. It doesn’t mean I draft steal only guys early or often, i.e. SAGNOF guys.

  26. eltoo says:
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    got ya. the old speed doesn’t hit slumps mantra

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @eltoo: Yeah, exactly. You’re like fantasy baseball Cliff Notes. Have to give you my posts so you can summarize them down to a line. (Insert winking emoticon)

  28. Eddy says:
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    Grey, I have a question. Does Kemp’s newly found relationship with pop sensation Rihanna add or detract his value?

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Assuming he doesn’t follow Chris Brown’s lead. It adds.

  30. Eddy says:
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    Well put sir, well put. I’ll alert the mock community asap.

  31. eltoo says:
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    haha i like that

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