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Jason Bay has been terrible.  Like Don Mattingly’s wife in a mugshot terrible.  In June, J-Bay hit .230 and 4 homers, but he was hitting the cover off the ball in June compared to July.  In July, he’s hitting .203 with 1 homer.  This month Garrett Jones has hit more homers during REM sleep.  The optimist in me says Bay will hit 15 homers and .300 the rest of the way with ten steals.  The pessimist in me thinks he’ll be benched in favor of Chris Duncan.  The realist looks at all of his splits and sees a guy that has been consistent throughout his career, minus a season (2007) when he was battling knee problems.  The surrealist in me thinks Bay will hit a line drive up the middle that will ricochet off the pitcher and shoot to the 1st baseman who will smack the ball into center, then the ball will slowly roll back towards the infield until God tilts the field and the ball rolls towards the 3rd baseman, but God tilts too far and the field freezes causing the ball to roll back towards the catcher.  In all likelihood, Bay’s 2nd half should be somewhere in the realist realm (though it would be cool if the surrealist was spot-on).  I think Bay can give you 10+ homers, .280 average and a handful of steals.  Right now, I’m actively trying to acquire him in one league.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Erik Bedard – Back to the DL.  In related news, George Sherrill was an All-Star in 2008, Adam Jones in 2009 and Chris Tillman is about to be called up.

Ted Lilly – After he was rocked by the Phils, I said he might end up on the DL.  Lo and behold, voilà, alas, see that, told ya so, etc.  Lilly’s now on the DL.  Will miss about a month.

Kevin Millwood – Left after two innings because of tightness in his glutes.  That never bothered Richard Simmons.

Chad Gaudin/John Lannan – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners and 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, respectively, with two no decisions.  Watching the Nats and Padres really tested my love for baseball.  I don’t want to test fate for the off chance Tom Paciorek is rehired, but listening to Bob Carpenter and Dibble is like sitting next to Ted Striker on an airplane.

Ryan Zimmerman – Since May when he hit .342, he’s hitting .238 with 5 homers and nary a steal.  This guy has 9 homers and is batting .260.  This guy is Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Everth Cabrera – It was about five games ago, I said I’m selling back all of my old EverCab CDs at Amoeba, now he has 4 straight games with a steal.  SAGNOF!

Kyle Blanks – HR yesterday.  Rudy’s pride and joy now has three homers in the last week (while batting about .240).

Daric Barton – 2-for-4, after he finally did something he left the game with a hamstring strain.  If he were a bigger name, he could have had the lead with the title, Barton Fink.

Dallas Braden – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER and 16 baserunners.  I sat him in The Jetstream.  I’m going to give him his next start vs. the Blue Jays at home.  If that doesn’t work out, then bye-bye Braden.

Brett Gardner – Headed to the DL with a broken left thumb.  So much for the Fonzie impersonations.

Brett Cecil – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Sticking with the newly-established Brett theme, Cecil now has three solid starts in a row and gets Oakland next.

Joe Blanton – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  Now has a 2.55 ERA through the last two months.  I’ve been starting him everywhere for the last three weeks in a 12 team league.  I’d own him in a 10 team league at this point.

Julio Lugo – Batting .571 since the trade to the Cards and has a homer and a steal.  Lugo wouldn’t be the first middle infielder lemon that LaRussa turned into lemonade.

John Smoltz – 5 IP, 6 ER.  I know he had a lot of great years.  But your nostalgia is hurting you like when you sneak off into your attic and look at photos of you with your one true love.  Burn the photos, man.  She’s married with kids.

Nolan Reimold – .417 and three steals since The Break.  No idea where this newfound speed is coming from, but he’s capable of a few week streak where he’s ownable in all leagues.

Kelly Johnson – 3-for-4, HR and steal yesterday.  Whatever Yunel was drinking last week, Johnson seems like he’s bogarting it now.

Jason Schmidt – 3 IP, 4 ER.  Yup, sounds about right.

Russell Martin – Hit his third homer yesterday.  He would be leading the league if this were April 7th.

Anthony Swarzak – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER.  I wouldn’t pick him up with your team.

Seth Smith – 1-for-2, 1 steal.  After being declared the starting left fielder, he didn’t get the start Friday or Saturday.  Obviously Jim Tracy put starting in quotes.

Aaron Cook – 7 IP, 2 ER and the Win.  The third starter I had going yesterday in my crapfecta of pitchers (the other two were Lannan and Gaudin).  As I’ve said (numerous times) before, there is so much pitching out there you don’t have to have the exciting names (Liriano, Ervin Santana, Smoltz, Porcello, any number of rookie pitchers) to be competitive in pitching.  Boring works too.

Justin Morneau – 2 HRs yesterday as he makes his case for MVP.  Judge Grey presiding in the case of Morneau versus the AL field.  Without the runs and A-Rod hanging with Madge, what do you got?  A sucka in a uniform callin’ his shot…

Ervin Santana – 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  He’s mocking you now.  You took the flier; it didn’t work.  Let him go.  You’ll feel much better when he’s doing this to someone else’s team.

Gerardo Parra – Rico Suave’s mocking me now.  I held him for so long in a deep league.  Since I dropped him last week (4 games ago), 2 homers, 7 RBIs, 4 Runs and one steal.

Tony Pena Jr. – To go reverse Ankiel on us and become a pitcher.  If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em…

From Around The Web

  1. and1mcgee says:
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    i had to leave a comment for two reasons: 1. first! (soo childish), but 2. the REM sleep Jason Bay Garrett Jones comment!!! ha! REM sleep. so random and great!

  2. denys says:
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    V-Mart’s also been doing his best Jason Bay impersonation. So frustrating because he was arguably the 2nd best catcher-eligible player to Joe Mauer pretty much all 1st half.

    I have Doumit on my bench – whom I’ve been shopping with no results. Now I’m thinking maybe V-Mart’s the one to push – but there might not be an active market after the latest string of shit-hittery.

  3. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    yeah,i drafted bay in the midway league then traded for beltran and bruce,out of the 3,i think bay has been the least productive on my 7th place team,oh lets not forget about my other great trade for wright,the 4 of those studs have all of 3 hr`s and 12 rbi the last month,or = to 2 games for garrett jones

  4. Racehorse says:
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    Don Mattingly’s wife mugshot … LOL.

    Grey, I’m in a dog fight in my dynasty league (currently 3rd place–16 team league). My outfielders are Sparkakis, Reimold, Byrd/Murphy, FraGu, Taveras, CoJack (DL stashed), and Randy Winn…

    I’m always looking for longterm upgrades, so going forward, should I take a flyer on Michael Saunders or let sleeping dogs lie and stick with old reliable Randy Winn? Whaddya think?

  5. AP says:
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    I’m in a 20 team 5×5 Roto league. Essentially, my offense is great and my pitching sucks. In the offensive catagories I am first in 4 of the 5 and I am 5th in HR’s. I lead runs and stolen bases by a pretty wide margin over 2nd place and I’m not really worried about getting caught. I am way down the totem pole in all of the pitching catagories. I keep bouncing around 5th-7th place.

    So, I’m trying to trade Carl Crawford for some pitching. I have one team in the league that was interested in making a deal. The framework of the deal looks something lke this:

    I give Crawford/Ryan Zimmerman or Hank Blalock/Swarzak to receive
    Oswalt/Kerry Wood/Colby Rasmus.

    My long winded question(s)=Does this deal give me enough back for Crawford, since it’s really been the only deal I could find available? Am I nuts if I want to include Zimmerman over Blalock? He has Trevor Hoffman too, should I try to hold out and get him to include Hoffman over Wood and risk not making a deal? Any thoughts or help here is greatly appreciated.

  6. Just Another Steve says:
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    Robin Harris smiles down upon you, Grey — now and always.

  7. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @AP: in a single season roto league trades like this appear lopsided on paper, but due to categories and such really aren’t. so long as you aren’t trading crawford to a team that could possibly catch you in steals, i’d say it’s ok. i would think you could find a little better SP though. and kerry wood isn’t a closer i’d be targeting.

    i feel like with oswalt you are getting a guy who will be avg in all categories but not give you a surge in any (except possibly Ws which is completely impossible to predeict anyway). wood is crap and might give you a few saves, but will hurt your era and whip.

  8. AP says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: That’s pretty much the reaosn for my concern. I know I’m not getting the best of the deal, but I NEED to add something in the pitching catagory and this is the only deal I can find. FWIW, I currently lead the team I’m attempting to trade with by 87 Stolen bases & 57 runs. I really don’t think he’ll catch me even if Crawford goes Playstation for the remainder of the year. As of this morning I am in 5th, and this other team is in 11th.

    If I could swing Crawford/Zimmerman/Swarzak for Oswalt/Hoffman?Rasmus, would you feel better about that deal? Just from casual conversations with the team in question, I think he’s after Zimmerman & Swarzak. I originally shot down Zimmerman being included, but I have a hunch if I included Zimmeman I could get him to include Hoffman. ( I hope.) Like I mentioned earlier, and like Grey mentions above, Zimmerman’s been kinda blech lately, and i really don’t care about losing Swarzak at all so I almost don’t mind at all about those guys being included.

  9. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    yeah, i’d much prefer hoffman (better stats, better team, no threat of losing job/being traded into a set up role…only negative is injury concern). and this year from here on out, i’d probably take blalock over zimmerman anyway. blalock isn’t gonna help your avg but he’ll hit bombs and get RBIs in that rangers lineup.

  10. .(). says:
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    “Burn the photos, man. She’s married with kids.”

    Might be the funniest and most spot-on thing you’ve ever written.

  11. Scott says:
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    NL only keeper: Manny, Holliday, Garrett Jones for Votto and Braun?

  12. Not a keeper league, got offered Raul Ibanez for Jacoby Ellsbury. My only other double digit steals guys would be Kinsler, Hanley, Choo. So, I’d be leaving myself pretty weak there.

    On Bay, I just traded for him figuring that he’ll turn it around for August/September. He might finish up hitting .260 or whatever, but hitting .260 the rest of the way he should be able to put up some good production in that lineup.

  13. struggler says:
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    Whose a better DL hold for September: Duchscherer or Chris Young?

  14. Mr Baseball says:
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    as per NBC sports

    John Smoltz. – As predicted, he’s really becoming a difference maker in the AL East race. all that is left now is the retirement ceremony next summer in Atlanta

  15. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Scott: votto/braun. not close.

  16. Scott says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: Figured. The dude needs offense, so I said he could sub Lincecum for Braun if he wants.

  17. Robert says:
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    Previous post… Grey- I do have 9 moves left at this point. If it makes a difference in your thinking, there are no moves in Sept. in my league. So I have 9 moves and 5 weeks left. Should I use a move for the hot hitting Kendrick(I have J. Lopez at 2nd) or hold with Lopez and save moves for later? Thanks

  18. Art Vandelay says:
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    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffin’ glue.

  19. Corey says:
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    Start both Billingsley @ STL and Wainwright against LAD? They would be the only two I have going, and I’m pretty much first in all of my pitching cats. Should I sit these two, or start em and hope for the best?

  20. Commish Cauda (formerly Mike) says:
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    Need trade advice. deep 16-team, H2H-Points keeper league.

    I have the best record in the league by a game. I’ve just about clinched my division and I’m preparing for the playoffs.

    Gordon Beckham is my current CI/MI. He can be kept for three more years (thru 2012). But I’ve been offered Miguel Cabrera for him straight up by a rebuilding team. Cabrera is not-keeper eligible.

    Tulo is my SS and Adrian Gonz is my 1B, so Cabrera would be my starting CI/MI.

    Textbook keeper-for-stud trade that seems like a no-brainer. But Beckham has outscored Cabrera in this points format since being called up.

    Thoughts?

  21. HoodRat THings says:
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    What do you think about trading Cano for Wright?

  22. DrEasy says:
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    Barton Fink, not the Coen brothers strongest effort in my opinion. Won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes festival though!

  23. drop JJ hardy for REIMOLD?

    I own alexie and tulo…. i dont really need another SS and Reimold is more consistent and hotttt….

  24. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Commish Cauda (formerly Mike): 1) that’s a pretty f’ed up scoring system where gordon beckham outscores miguel cabrera.

    1a) why do leagues feel the need to get cute in their scoring systems where we have guys like beckham outscoring studs like cabrera?

    2) i’d make the deal. beckham projects as a pedroia type at best. he might have a year where he gives you 20 steals, 100 runs, 20 HRs, and 90 RBIs, but that’s his absolute ceiling, and he’ll most likely settle in as a 20 steal, .300 avg, 12 HR, 70 RBI, 90 R kinda guy. a nice 2B/MI for sure, but nothing that can’t be replaced any given year with a crafty waiver wire pickup/late draft pick.

  25. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @DrEasy: i think barton fink is one of their best. well i guess it’s all relative, i’d say better than hudsucker proxy, the lady killers, burn after reading, miller’s crossing, and intolerable cruelty, but not as good as blood simple, the big lebowski, fargo, no country for old men, oh brother where art thou?. about on par with raising arizona.

  26. jk says:
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    which of these SS would you take for the rest of the year: jason bartlett, alexei ramirez, ryan theriot, miguel tejada, or yunel?

  27. ginkoboloba says:
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    Starter help please. For my weekly points league… pick two from:

    Lowe vs LA (Wolf)

    Gallardo vs WAS (Martin)

    Marquis @ NYM (Pelfrey) @ CIN (Arroyo)

  28. Neil says:
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    I said it last week and I will say it again…Smoltz’ numbers suggest he is pitching well but he is getting really bad luck. Not a reassurance to his owners (myself included), but calls for him to be sent to the bullpen (or retirement) are unfair.

    Smoltz 30 IP 2009:

    8.22 K/9
    1.47 BB/9
    5.60 K/BB

    Those are ELITE numbers, better than Nolasco’s numbers before he was sent down earlier this year and better than Smoltz’ career averages in those categories. Of all MLB pitchers this season with 80+ IP, only Haren, Halladay, Vazquez and Greinke have better K/BB ratios.

    The problem is that is giving up a touch too many HR (but nothing absurd like Harden) and he’s getting killed on BABIP (a ridiculous .394). His strand rate is equally crazy – a mere 58% (league average is probably around 72%). Of all MLB pitchers this season with 80+ IP, nobody has a BABIP higher than .360 (Parra). He is followed by Nolasco (.353), Slowey and Harang. And every MLB pitcher with 80+ IP has a strand rate higher than 60%. Smoltz is giving up an extremely high number of 2-out RBI hits.

    Another red flag, contact rates. Currently, when batters swing the bat against Smoltz, they make contact with the ball 79% of the time, which is the highest recorded level of contact against Smoltz (Fangraphs data goes back to 2002). His contact rates from 2002 to 2008 were: 66%, 68%, 71%, 78%, 76%, 72%, 71%. His first pitch strike % is also at its lowest point since 2002. That being said, his 79% contact rate is still top 30 in MLB, in the range of Wainwright, Ed Jackson, Parra, Floyd, Ubaldo.

    I refuse to believe that Smoltz is done. You don’t post those kind of K/BB numbers and top 30 contact rate numbers if you aren’t a really good pitcher.

  29. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @jk: sexy alexei

  30. Commish Cauda (formerly Mike) says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon:

    I think the scoring system is pretty standard for points leagues, (HR=4, 3B=3, 2B=2, 1B=1, BB=1, R=1, RBI=1, SB=3, CS=-1, K=-1, HBP=.5)

    Beckham is slightly ahead of Cabrera, but he is still ahead, (Beckham has less strikeouts, a few more walks and steals). Just goes to show how well Beckham has been the last month.

    But your point about Beckham’s ceiling is well taken. Cabrera is still Cabrera, and I’m sure he’ll outpace Beckham the remainder of the season.

    I’m just torn about giving up a solid keeper who might be 80% of Cabrera the rest of the way. Is that really worth giving him up?

    In exchange for a championship, I would have to say “yes”.

    What say you, Grey?

  31. Robert says:
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    One more thing: When Vlad comes back to DH, does Kendrick lose time by platooning with Izturis?

  32. Scott says:
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    @jk: I like Alexei.

  33. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Commish Cauda (formerly Mike): I don’t play in a points league, but here’s a question: Why is a HR four times more valuable than an RBI? Why is a SB three times more valuable than a run? A stolen base, by its nature, is only valuable if it leads to a run, no?

    This suggests that a guy who steals 35 bases is more valuable than a guy who drives in 100 RBI. Or, if Willy Taveras steals 50 bases, another player has to drive in 150 runs to match his value. (For that matter, shouldn’t the penalty for a CS be the same as the value of a SB, not 1/3?)

    Just curious. I also acknowledge that traditional roto-scoring has little to do with actual baseball value. Most efforts to mimic baseball value, however, just gum up the works even more.

  34. Mr Baseball says:
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    @Commish Cauda (formerly Mike): 1) that’s a pretty f’ed up scoring system where gordon beckham outscores miguel cabrera.

    everyone is on an even scale come draft day – you all should know the scoring system so you should be fed up woth yourself not taking advantage of the scoring system – Mr Baseball (formerly Mr Beachball)

  35. Mr Baseball says:
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    I said it last week and I will say it again…Smoltz’ numbers suggest he is pitching well but he is getting really bad luck. – he makes his bad luck – he is leaving up too many fat pitches to hit – he might make 10 good pitches than 2 bad pitches – so even if he looked good for 10 pitches – Major League Hitters will feast on your mistakes

  36. Eric says:
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    Couple of lineup questions here:

    It’s a weekly 10 team mixed roto league standard 5X5 scoring.

    Need to start 5 outfielders. I have six of them:
    Franklin Gutierrez (7 games)
    Carlos Lee (7 games)
    Alfonso Soriano (7 games)
    Hunter Pence (7 games)
    Matt Kemp (7 games)
    Curtis Granderson (6 games)

    Which one sits this week?

    Also, middle infield. I need to start 3 of these 4:
    Brandon Phillips (7 games)
    Ian Stewart (7 games)
    Stephen Drew (6 games)
    Yunel Escobar (6 games)

    Which middle infielder sits this week?

  37. Mr Baseball says:
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    Ryan Zimmerman – Since May when he hit .342, he’s hitting .238 with 5 homers and nary a steal. This guy has 9 homers and is batting .260. This guy is Kevin Kouzmanoff – come on Grey Kevin Kouzmanoff will never challenge joe dimaggio 56 game hitting streak

  38. Mr Baseball says:
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    Kelly Johnson was on the The apprentice and Donald Trump has two words for him – Your fire!

  39. Mr Baseball says:
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    Erik Bedard – Back to the DL – there goes his plans for “world domination,”

  40. GTS says:
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    Spot start Old Man Moyer vs. ARI, SF this week? Good chance to get two wins.

  41. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @and1mcgee: Thanks!

    @Racehorse: Go with Saunders.

    @AP: I’d want Crawford’s side.

    @.().: Hehe

    @Scott: I’d take Votto’s side.

    @Maitland: It’s fair either way. I’d take Ibanez.

    @struggler: Dooks

    @sean: Yup

    @Robert: Hold Lopez.

    @Art Vandelay: Ha!

    @Mr Baseball: Hehe

    @Corey: Start em.

    @HoodRat THings: I’d take Wright.

    @DrEasy: True

    @Tony Y: Go with Reimold.

    @ginkoboloba: Lowe and Gallardo.

    @Neil: Thanks again for the research. The trouble is, how much can you get from Smoltz? More than from de la Rosa? Not sure.

    @Robert: Not if he’s hitting.

    @Commish Cauda (formerly Mike): I want Miggy.

    @Eric: Sit FraGu. Sit Stewart.

    @Mr Baseball: Hehe

    @GTS: I wouldn’t start him in any league.

  42. DrEasy says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: Haven’t seen as many as you have, but I agree with your ranking for those I have.

  43. Will says:
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    Rob Dibble and his transition lenses is why I watch MASN. The dude loves making fun of people. Remember the one from Minute Maid Park a couple weeks ago when the guy on the kiss cam proposed to his fiance? “What are they going to do now, go out for some celebratory barbecue?”

    It’s sort of like the announcers in Major League the movie. We (the Nats) are so bad, you just have to stop giving a crap about it and revel in our mediocrity. And start drinking.

  44. Commish Cauda (formerly Mike) says:
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    @Mr Baseball:

    “everyone is on an even scale come draft day – you all should know the scoring system so you should be fed up woth yourself not taking advantage of the scoring system – Mr Baseball (formerly Mr Beachball)”

    I don’t get your point?

  45. Commish Cauda (formerly Mike) says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins:

    I didn’t make up the scoring system. But I do play in a number of points leagues, and outside of Steals being 3 pts. instead of 2 pts., it’s pretty standard.

    I think the scoring is based on a “point per base”. A home run is a four base hit, so it is four points. Also, a point for a BB rewards OBP instead of AVG. And Steals being 3pts. tries to give value to the Wily Tavares’ of the world…otherwise the league would be ruled by the HR hitters.

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Will: Yeah, I’m not familiar with his making fun of people, but that sounds better than what I saw.

  47. Aan says:
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    Which of these bums can expect to be less worse going forward: Casey Blake or Aubrey Huff?

    I know Huff is a second half hitter, but he’s been looking pretty dreadful lately.

  48. Commish Cauda (formerly Mike) says:
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    Drop Cody Ross for Michael Saunders? Both would be strictly bench depth, but Saunders is a nice keeper.

  49. Dingo says:
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    For Mariners fans, the Bedard trade is like that wasp that lays its eggs inside your skin, and then the eggs fester and itch until the larvae hatch and painfully eat their way out of your body, except that some of them burrow into your brain and take a giant crap on it.

    Don’t like that image? Blame Bill Bavasi.

  50. Chase says:
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    “In related news, George Sherrill was an All-Star in 2008, Adam Jones in 2009 and Chris Tillman is about to be called up.” Haha that is priceless!

  51. Martin says:
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    **************

    Kevin slowey is now out for the season with surgery to remove a bone chip in his wrist

    I was hoping for a swift recovery from him but I think he’s safe to drop this year in non keeper leagues

  52. PunTick says:
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    @Grey

    which side would you want?

    Matt “im overplaying my ass off” Holliday or Grady Sizemore

    10 Team Mixed League, 6 keepers, standard 5×5 scoring

    im on the Holliday side, and the guy accepted. i thought this would be a beginning point for some trade talks, but i guess not. am i missing something?

    slight side note, Grady will know be the player with the Highest ADP (9.8), before it was Ichiro at 27.1

  53. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Chase: Thanks!

    @Martin: Yup

    @PunTick: I’d take Sizemore for next year, Holliday this year by a slight margin.

  54. Broadstreetbrawler says:
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    @PunTick: Sizemore has discomfort in his elbow, and the Indians are terribad. So speculation is they will shut Sizemore down for the year.

  55. GTS says:
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    @Martin: Thanks – just dropped Slowey.

  56. Commish Cauda (formerly Mike) says:
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    Rank them the rest of the way:

    Russell Branyan
    Adam LaRoche
    Cody Ross

  57. Commish Cauda (formerly Mike) says:
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    @Grey: Thanks

  58. HoodRat THings says:
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    Scutaro/Zimmerman for Agonz/Damon

    Which side guys?

  59. Mr Baseball says:
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    Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Yankees are among the teams interested in Heath Bell.

  60. Broseph says:
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    Sweet NWA reference. I know I’m late, but had to comment.

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