I think Garza is going to have a huge yr, check his peripherals from the past 2 yrs, sure he is in the AL East but hes a solid K producer and I got him at 107 (not too bad). I liked Baker’s upside and low WHIP, he allowed me to take Burnett and Zambrano who I got at a ridiculous discount. And yes I tend to SAGNOF also but when a closer is available at 227 I am going to grab them (especially with the risk of my others).

I do appreciate the input though, should be a fun league. Looks like we have a bunch of knowledgeable guys to deal with.

I have an Excel application available on Google Docs if you wanted to check it out. Ideally, there are a couple of things to setup, but you could get by with just typing in player’s names and see your team totals if that’s what you’re after.

For anyone else interested, it’s simply a draft tracker at this point in time. There isn’t a ranked list of players or anything, you simply enter your league’s setup, and then you type in each player as they are drafted, and you will get the up-to-date standings (either aggregate or average, switched whenever you want) for your league. I have CHONE and ESPN projections loaded into it, or you can enter your own set (or optionally use mine as a 3rd set). These can be switched back and forth at will.

You can track up to 16 teams, up to 18 batters and 14 pitchers (positions can be selected for ease of use), and stat-wise you can select up to a 10×10 league from the following categories…

R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, H, XBH, 1B, 2B, 3B, BB, K, CS, NSB

W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, QS, HD, SV+HD, BAA, OBA, BB, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, IP

Pretty sure I’ve fixed any bugs as I’ve played around with it, but no 100% guarantees (I also don’t know how it runs with older versions of Excel), but if anyone wants to check it out to see if it would be helpful, let me know. I could see some advantages/disadvantages compared to the War Room depending on what you’re looking for.

I don’t want to post anything without Rudy’s (or Grey’s) permission, so if he wants to chime in (or take a look at it first), I’ll wait before posting an email address or whatever would be appropriate.

I predict you will finish at best, in 2nd place.

@Stephen: RCL 8 (The Extroadinary League of Gentlemen) for the win!

@Rudy Gamble: Cheers for the comments! Yeah, I do need another hitter, I could rotate Cuddyer in the OF spot, but then i’d need a CI. I’m going to watch for a ‘Lind-type’ breakout from someone this year hopefully. I’m interested to follow Alvarez in spring at least, see where he ends up and how he performs. I just have one of those gut feelings about him being an above average contributor right away when (if) he gets the shot. We’ll see…

Ah, I see. Thanks for the heads up. Last year I was good at avoiding the mines in the risky pitcher segment (drafted Vazquez, Greinke, Baker), and I think with how deep my league is, it’s still worth taking the chance on him cause it’s just a desert wasteland in FA. The fact his FIP was below 4 is enough for me to throw a party.

I was definitely watching medlen last year and will grab him this year if he gets another chance.

At this point I’m also watching the Cards #5 situation and the Marlins young guys like a hawk.

Do you have any hope for any of those guys (Garcia/McClellan/Hill) or (Volstad/West/Miller)?

I’m especially interested in the Cards guys because if one of them wins the job and starts off hot I can deal him to somebody (all Cards fans league).

For the manager who ends up taking one of these guys, this overspending handicaps the rest of his draft. For the manager who DOESN’T take one of these guys, he’s probably going to be short on offense in some capacity, since you basically NEED a first-round bat to hit the projections you’ll need to win your league.

My thinking is, the best way to get a first round bat without paying for it at auction is to acquire a surplus of SP talent, since that is where the best values/deals will be, and this is where those handicapped managers will realize they’ve fallen short after the draft. For example, in a league where I employed this draft strategy, I just traded Votto/Johan (paid $20/$17) for Pujols/Blanton (other guy paid $44/$1). Essentially, I paid $36 for Pujols this way (if you assume Blanton would have gone for $1, which he always does). Ignoring whether or not I got the better end of the trade (which I believe I did, obviously), but I almost NEVER see Pujols go for under $41… so at the very least, I got him at a great price. The two factors that allowed me to do this were 1.) the manager who owned Pujols desperately needed solid SP and 2.) I stocked up at SP, so I still have F-Her, Ubaldo, Hamels, Burnett and Nolasco… losing Johan isn’t a loss.

Does this makes sense or am I out of my gourd?

Wow I just took a closer look at Hammel and I’m impressed. I will def pick him up as soon as the waiver period ends. Who should I drop for him though? Marshall, I’m guessing?

Ya, I kind of threw caution to the wind on AVG. and went for upside in the pitchers.

I wanted Tim Hudson, but he was taken one pick before mine and I had to start to scramble.

Richard, Bumgarner, Kennedy were all drafted.

Hammel looks to be worth a look, does Medlen have a spot in the rotation though?

Worth dropping anyone for either of them?

Thanks

Would love to hear your insight on my squad. I too drafted in RCL 8 last night w. merlin. I am much more similar to you in my approach than Rudy in terms of safe older guys except I wait on SP typically. Any way, do you see any weaknesses?

C-V. Martinez
1B-Howard
2B-F. Lopez (will prob drop for another 2B)
SS-E. Cabrera
3B-Wright
MI-Hardy
CI-Youkilis
OF-Werth
OF-C. Lee
OF-Borbon
OF-Rasmus
OF-JD Drew
UT-N. Johnson
BN-Swisher

SP-Cain
SP-Peavy
SP-Baker
SP-Garza
SP-Burnett
SP-Zambrano
RP-Hoffman
RP-Francisco
RP-Jenks
RP-Capps
RP-Gregerson

@mc serch: thanks.

Even if they are good value late in the draft, i’d rather use that roster spot to play the hot hand, spot-start a matchup, or take a gamble on a newly recalled prospect. Especially in leagues with unlimited transactions. The more middling talent that ties down my roster flexibility the worse off i feel.

@GTS: i have played around with baseball prospectus’ player forecast manager as i use it to download PA/AB for hitters and IP for pitchers.

I don’t use any BP projected stats anymore after I’ve seen tests where CHONE and ZiPS are more accurate. Plus, CHONE and ZiPS are free.

I just did a 12-team MLB league on their system and I’m not liking the results – though not sure if it’s their projections or $ methodology. They’ve got a few things to fiddle with position value though i’m not sure what that does. but on the default level, Dustin Pedroia is the 10th most valuable hitter at $31. I have him at $17. They’ve got Braun at #1 at $47 followed by Hanley at $46 and Pujols at $42. I have Pujols at $38 and Hanley and Braun at $35.

The biggest different may be that their system forces a hitter/pitcher split at 180/80. I don’t have a split. I just base the values on their points contribution. So that split juices up the hitter values to where they potentially may be at an auction but not their true value. So I have Cano at $14, they have him at $21. His true value in my eyes is $14. I might go over b/c i think he has upside or is ‘safer’ than other options but will let him go if he gets anywher near $21.

Then again, 12 team MLB auctions are a little funky anyway. It works better in single leagues…or at least a deeper MLB format

I’d rather have a team that’s low on projected value with a few key sleepers because i can always go to the waiver wire and add projected value if my sleepers don’t pan out. And if they do, i’m higher than projected value would have placed me to begin with.

I also struggle with justifying paying for projected value when it comes to assembling a rotation. There’s so much that can be gained from playing matchups and adding starters in season that it seems almost foolish to aim at certain totals on draft day. Because of this, I’m ranked near the bottom of ever conventional draft projection, almost all the time. But i’m okay with that.

Yeah, I said “hew.”

I highly encourage drafting high upside rookie hitters who have a path towards a starting position. Braun, Longoria, and Dread Pirate are good examples. But there’s a much higher risk factor in here given they haven’t hit MLB pitching and might be kept down b/c of $$$ reasons.

My one word of caution is don’t overpay for a rookie expecting great success. Wieters in 2009 is a solid example. But once you get past about 150 drafted players, all rules are off assuming you’ve got the bench space in case you have to wait. I especially encourage this in single-league drafts – I scored last year with McCutchen and got some nice payoffs on Jake Fox and would’ve on Happ if I didn’t drop him (ugh!)