A week into the season and everyone has basically contracted closer asthma. Breathe… I know it’s tough from time to time to fathom that the fantasy kingdom that you drafted two weeks ago is coming crumbling down because Shawn Tolleson just wet the bed and is shaking the Walker Texas Rangers bullpen. He has guys behind him that have been gone over, which in most leagues that count pitchers who throw the bal,l should have been rostered. Namely Kela and Dyson. So what is all this bad karma at the beginning of the season good for, besides chasing saves? It is good for people who panic and drop the top set-up guys too early. Dellin Betances was dropped four times more then he was added this week. That is a coup for you, don’t run to that, hop on a tricycle and find a hill to roll down as fast as possible. Early season turnover and panic buttons are what make your team weak in one department now, and especially strong in the next several weeks by “calculated” guessing. So with that, here is the first installment of the 2016 Closer Report with the changes and job winners from Spring Training newly nestled into their respective spots. I will tackle Holds and the set-up crews next week when we start seeing usage and match-up based stuff.Please, blog, may I have some more?
With the baseball season starting in the blink of seven-days-eyes, I figured it would be fitting since we all crunch drafts ’til the last possible moment. Waiting until the end isn’t always a bad idea, you get the last news possible on injuries and job security. Bad thing is that you lose some of the sleeper appeal. By now, if you haven’t heard of a guy who could be closing, there is a great possibility that he doesn’t have a Sam Hill’s chance of closing. Just facts. These guys aren’t born yesterday and matriculate with a mastery of three pitches overnight. The bullpen folk have one job and that is to make a save situation stay a save situation. This holds true for holds guys, pun semi-intended. So the list is basically where it should be until we start seeing some production from the lads. The committee situations that exist in Milwaukee and possibly Philly will be that until someone gets the bulk of the load on his back. Which sounds gross, but from a fantasy perspective, you want a full orgy of saves on your closer. After all, quantity is the name of the game, that and continued success at it. It is like everyone else’s job; you do good you stay. You do poorly, you get pink slipped and sent to middle relief-dom. So fingers crossed, or if you play the cuff odds, just simply uncross them and pray for the worst. Here is the last rankings of Closers and their hand-cuffs for the start of fantasy baseball version, 2.016…Please, blog, may I have some more?
No, you haven’t stumbled onto a WebMd bait page. Well… this is an advisory blog, none the same, but we won’t scare you into believing that you have clinical depression with every symptom. I mean, I’ve seen some other fantasy sites that attempt to advise on bullpen strategy. It’s easy to throw stuff up about closers and bullpens and say this guy will fail because of this and that. Heck, I like watching Jeopardy and guessing at the stuff I don’t know about either. Add in the fact that I remember my first beer… So this is one of the last pieces of the fantasy bullpen puzzle before we get down to brass tacks. The NSVH question… I always get it from the fantasy inspectors of the net of how and what to do about it. Do I stick with what I know, or do I go complete rover and draft whatever, whenever? That’s why I am here, hopefully to quell all ills in the race for bullpen dominance. The NSVH leagues are tricky and can be described as: people don’t know until they have to know. I know that really isn’t a draft strategy that I am going to “learn” you with this post, since I am better than that and take pride in leading my disciples into reliever bliss. So go get a comfy seat upon the porcelain throne of fantasy knowledge and let me guide you, for I am the fantasy bullpen shepherd.Please, blog, may I have some more?
A bullpen battle is like watching a boxing match with a blind man in one corner, and a one-legged man in the other. The ole’ mantra of never paying for saves is the cattle call of many Razzballians, but in leagues that we all pay, in terms of saves there has to be some semblance of order, and ADP plays a huge part in that. No one ever admits to paying up for saves, but when push comes to shove in your draft, more times than not, you are most likely jumping at the chance to own an elite closer. I love being the fifth guy to draft a closer. It allows me the extra round to grab another essential roster piece, and since I am awesome at my craft, I tend to get my pick of the litter of who I really want. Listen, not everyone pays for saves, but it isn’t an awful thing to do. They do only really count for one category, with parts of another, but in reality, so does a hitter drafted in the eighth round. That eighth round product isn’t going to give you, at best, a five share in a points league (minus Billy Hamilton). He is the same product that we are saying don’t pay for and falls firmly into the SAGNOF sandbox. So I am here to tell you that paying for saves is okay, but within reason of course. Don’t be a lemming and get sucked into a bidding war or a run scenario where it leaves you completely short after the draft without any saves to speak of. So here are some strategies and basic ideas I like to use for approaching saves based on formats and for giggles, we’ll be looking at some ADP stuff after my advice. Cheers!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Not everyone loves the buy-early and coast theory of closers. I am not a full on component of it, but I don’t like to be left without, at worst, a top-12 option to anchor my save chase. So for those that procrastinate, there is nothing wrong with y’all. Every theory has a proven outcome, whether it be wrong, backwards, or completely made up by several fortune cookies. The wait game for saves can still be fortuitous, the only problem is being right when it matters most. The last rounds of relievers needs to be decisive. After all, we don’t have 4-5 rosters spots designated for save speculation. Lucky for you, your ole’ pal Smokey is here to give you several options for late game options that you can try and strike it rich with late in your drafts. These guys are in situations that are either committee based, the closer is in jeopardy (yeah already), or I can just foresee a change of the imminent. So hold tight my fellow SAGNOF’ers and cast your fishing pole into the deep waters that I reside. Just for the people that skimmed this whole intro, this post is about the guys who aren’t closing currently and could net you saves on cheap.Please, blog, may I have some more?
What if I told you that the top-four teams last year in Holds didn’t make the playoffs? I know the obvious answer would be: it’s a made-up stat that does nothing but clog a fantasy roster with fodder and otherwise un-rosterable relievers. Well, if you said that out loud, then I am mad at you and you can not come to the Razzball Winter Dance Carnival. No, but seriously, I get offended when people make such determinations. Listen, you are either in a league that uses Holds or you aren’t. Not all of these guys is basically like having a second doorstop (when one doorstop will do). Many of these guys are usable in most formats as ratio gaps in K/9, looking for cheap wins or for a slow day of waiver wire madness. My theory on any league is to roster any two relievers that are non-closers at all times. At worst, they decimate your rates for one day. At best they give you an inning or two and give you great rates and a few K’s. Now, for Holds leagues, I am a hoarder. I live by this simple motto. Two pairs and a wild, just like five-card poker. It stands for two closers, two stud holds guys, and a streamer. In moves leagues, it’s a little more difficult to do, but in non-move limited league, it’s a fun way to just basically win your Holds category by August, save yourself the innings/starts and then stream the holy hell out of the last seven weeks. So since you have searched around the web and found zero other info on the topic (yeah, I looked, so take that), here are the holds tiers and sleepers for the 2016 year.
“A Hold is credited any time a relief pitcher enters a game in a Save Situation, records at least one out, and leaves the game never having relinquished the lead. Note: a pitcher cannot finish the game and receive credit for a Hold, nor can he earn a hold and a save.” ~ The edited out part of the Emancipation Proclamation, Abraham Lincoln.Please, blog, may I have some more?
With every first list or preseason edition of anything, there comes question marks. Lots of ifs and buts, with no real sound determination until we actual see the product. I am pretty sure Jane Austen’s first attempt at Pride and Prejudice was an abomination because who knew if Elizabeth Bennett was up to the task of being wifey material? It turns out that I can win a bet and correlate anything into the bullpen situations of the current MLB teams. Until injuries, demotion or a better option arises, we have to go by two main instincts: former ability and common sense. So the list is based off of the news to date that we have gotten on all the potential closers to date and for gigg’s I have ranked them accordingly. I have been doing bullpens for a long time and have been wrong on a few occasions, but I am not the manager or GM for the team pulling the strings, I am merely a fantasy writer. So here is the Spring training edition of the Closer rankings, their set-up men, and the cuffs we covet for fantasy in 2016.Please, blog, may I have some more?
Sneaky free K’s are all the rage for a streaming option when a starter just won’t do. The numbers they put up are more of a collection-basis rather than a hunt, play and punt. Relievers, not just closers, are the container that transports the glue. Can you imagine glue not coming in a container and just being had at the local sundry store by the handful? Messy proposition my friends. Non-closers are what every complete fantasy team need. They are like the egg in a good recipe – you can often substitute one reliever for another. That’s what makes them so handy… they don’t usually carry a huge draft day burden. They are basically free waiver-wire adds. For those in holds leagues, that doesn’t always ring true, and when I start getting into the preseason hold rankings, some of the names will be similar. That’s because the names you want just don’t give you holds, they give you multiple stats. They are the five-tool performers in the industry of relief pitchers. So here is a little preseason primer for guys who don’t really adorn too much draft day attention, but should be snagged in situations that require their services when you are short on K potential and maximizing the K/9 of your fantasy roster…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Each new season brings change. And this one is no different. The leaves have changed color, and they will turn back again. The reliever corps are no different, in-season or off of it. The reliever flux train has already started, and it’s just January. For some teams, it is a needed boost to a back-end unit that was piss pour last season. For most though, it is a change for the piece they were missing. While others, (cough, cough, the Yankees) just want to be greedy and make a super-unit of the three-headed variety. So today, as it being my first post in the new season, I will look at the guys who changed clubs and will most likely open the season as that teams new closer. It isn’t very dissimilar to real life, you know that ‘ole tale… for it’s as old as the sea. Some young up-and-comer arrives and thinks they can do your job better, faster and for longer, but veterans that have been an established piece for years get the respect they deserve. That’s what makes a 12 dollar salad a 12 dollar salad. So without all the soliloquy and gesturing, let’s just get to the closers who have changed clubs for the better…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Jay’s Note: Seeing as how Smokey’s title has put this song in my head for what will probably be the entire week, I’m happy to include this video to pay it forward.
That’s it. Shows over. Please help the rest of the Razz staff by stacking your chairs at the back of the room. So with there only the same number of days left as fingers on Jason Pierre Paul’s hand (sick football reference!), it is only fitting to do a fun wrap of lots of gimmicky things and fun factoids. I rented a cool clown horn for that moment, so if you don’t live in a one block radius of me, it was for not. For the the rest of you, put that horn in your head and add it to the the tumor hum and the slight tinnitus. So to recap the year, there were a total of 14 closer changes, and that includes teams changing multiple times. We have 21 closers with 30 plus saves, which my research tells me… this is the new record. While the overall number and percentage of saves successfully converted is in line with the norm, it just shows that teams are sticking with their guys and the committee approach is fading. Tons more are inside, it’s my last post of the year, so things might get either weirdly informative, or informatively weird. Suspense!Please, blog, may I have some more?