Over the past 2 years, Grey and I have had several conversations around joining a high-stakes baseball league.   We are intrigued by the NFBC  but our math keeps suggesting that their rake is too high (e.g., I calculated a 20% rake on the $150 slow draft).

Please, blog, may I have some more?

In a previous post, I laid out a methodology for testing fantasy baseball player rankings/auction values and all the components involved in projecting player values.  I got feedback from some smart folks that didn’t ‘get’ the test.  Since the common variable in that equation was me, I’m going to try explaining it one more time before I jump into the results of my test across 14 player rankings across 12 sources (2 f0r ESPN & Razzball) + the Average Draft Position (ADP) for the 456 (38 leagues of 12 teams) Razzball Commenter Leagues participants.  

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We participated for the 3rd year in a row in Yahoo’s Friends & Family draft – a melange of 6 Yahoos, 3 Rotowire peeps, 1 Baseball Prospectus writer (Baseball Prospector?), 1 HardballTimes.com guy, a WSJournalist and us.  Count ‘em up – it’s 13 people this year. 

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One of the biggest challenges facing the fantasy baseball fanatic is how to value and rank players.  This is felt most acutely during draft season when nearly every fantasy sports site/expert has their own Top 200/300 rankings and each manager has to decide which source(s) to believe. 

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Some analyses strike gold.  Some analyses are an immediate bust.  It’s the third type – the ‘fool’s gold’ type – that are the most frustrating.  After three years of middling predictions, I think my ‘risky pitcher’ analysis from a couple years ago is falling into that 3rd category.

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We at Razzball hear the cries of the dedicated fans and emotionally invested fantasy baseballers who tear up when their favorite/drafted players underperform.  The black holes in their teams’ lineup that threaten to swallow all that is Debby Boone.  The pitchers that are, alas, belly-itchers.

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Point Shares for 10/12/14/15/16-team MLB were updated on Sunday night (March 11th) to reflect the latest available playing time projections.  There will be some movement in the rankings based on the playing time changes.  I also took a deeper look into relievers possibly converting to starters (Sale, Crow, Bard, Aroldis) to make sure their projections reflected their role (i.e., a pitcher’s projections for ERA/WHIP/K rate are better as relievers vs.

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Unlike with real baseball, it can unequivocally be said that fantasy baseball is 50% about hitting and 50% about pitching.  Yet it is close to a foregone conclusion that fantasy baseball drafters should invest disproportionately in hitters vs. pitchers.  If someone were to draft a pitcher in the first round or three in the first five rounds, the average fantasy baseball player would scoff at them (scoff I say!).

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In the NFL, every GM has a cheat sheet to help determine the value of a draft pick.  It was started by Jimmy Johnson during his Cowboy heyday and I imagine that every NFL GM has some egghead on staff who has a slightly different value for each draft pick.  

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Coming off our middle of the bell curve performance as rookies in last year’s NL LABR league (frigin’ Vazquez – he has even a mediocre April/May, we don’t drop him and we finish in 3rd place), we were invited back to participate in the first-ever 15-team mixed league LABR (click link to see the other league participants).  

Please, blog, may I have some more?