The road to creating fantasy baseball auction dollar projections is paved with many decisions. Some are plagued with methodological potholes but, if done right, the resulting \$ projections should basically get to the same place. (The player projections are the primary driver in differences between competent systems)

Since this is the time of the year where this topic matters, I thought I would shine a light on some of the less visible decisions that impact fantasy baseball auction dollar estimates. I will do my best to keep this from devolving into a mathematical or methodological exercise.

These musings will bleed into at least a second post. This first post is going to focus solely on Position Adjustments.

I have been spending a lot of time thinking about position adjustments this preseason. A significant portion of the fantasy baseball world seems to unconditionally believe that ‘position scarcity’ exists. EVERY draft has a number of C/2B/SS that would be drafted later if they were 1B/3B/OF.

Here are four theories on position adjustments – ranging from smallest to largest:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

This is a post for the fantasy baseball drafters who use Excel, Google Docs, or some other war room software that automatically totals a drafted team’s stats while in the middle of a draft.  Or perhaps for those of you who do mock drafts or simulated drafts.

The below grid represents my projected 75% mark in each stat category across 10/12/14/15/16 team ESPN and Yahoo default roster format leagues.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Everyone has their own method of determining their draft board and I imagine mine is rather unique. My early focus is on playing time/injuries so I can run Steamer rates against them and run the results through my Player Rater \$ calculation. I then compare this against NFBC ADP and any expert drafts to get a sense for the outliers. As the preseason crawls on, I find myself digging into more and more players and determining whether they are players I want on my team based on their market value.

My tweak this year has been to analyze the outliers (guys my Player Rater is high/low on) earlier in the preseason. Projections are far from perfect and I have no problem drafting a guy above or below my \$ value if I feel passionately about his value. These analyses are not terribly thorough – just scanning their FanGraphs pages for peripheral stats and reading Baseball Forecaster and Baseball Prospectus player summaries (the former of which being more helpful than the latter). I also check against Grey’s rankings so I can identify on which players we will inevitably debate.

Below are three pitchers – Julio Teheran, Mat Latos, Tyson Ross – where my Player Rater is way more pessimistic than the other sources I have reviewed. While my reasons vs Steamer’s reasons may differ, it still ends up with the same conclusion: I think these guys are being overvalued and I cannot see how any of three will end up on any of my teams.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I have been saddled (by employers) with mediocre PC laptops for years. Most companies have their IT
groups recycle (aka ‘refurbish’) laptops to save costs. Inevitably, all but a couple people end up with 3-year old models that are heavier, slower, and lamer than the latest/greatest model (kind of like comparing a Miguel Cabrera 2014 to Miggy 2011).

Just as my latest laptop started acting up, an e-mail popped into my inbox from Dell. They wanted me to test drive their XPS 13 laptop and share with all of you my thoughts on it. As an incentive, I could keep the laptop and give one out to our wonderful readers. Wow, last year I got a free book to review. This year, a laptop. Just putting it out there that Rudy could use a non-minivan to drive around in…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

2015 draft season has begun (at least for me)! The 2015 15-team mixed LABR draft took place on Friday, February 10th – nearly 2 months before the start of the regular season. Almost 60 full days where I can read the player news and play injury bingo (Jonathan Lucroy – woo-hoo, not on my board!).

This was a snake draft with standard 5×5 roto scoring. See here for the draft results and my illustrious leaguemates. I can say with a fair amount of certainty that no more than 2 of these people has ever killed a drifter.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The version 1 of our 2015 Steamer MLB hitter and pitcher projections are now available. As with last year, we project our own playing time (Games and Plate Appearances/At Bats for hitters, Games/Games Started/Innings Pitched for pitchers) as well as Saves, Holds, and Quality Starts. These projections will be updated regularly throughout the preseason in concert with playing time shifts driven by MLB depth chart changes or trades/signings. The links are below – you can access via ‘Stats’ in the top menu.

Grey’s projections will be available soon.

Fantasy baseball auction values are also available (accessible via Player Rater/2015 Pre-Season Player Rater in the top menu). We have two notable enhancements:

1. We have added a \$ per Game metric that estimates the dollar value of a hitter/pitcher based on their projected average game. Thus, if you have a different assessment than me on a player’s expected playing time, you can more easily adjust the player’s value. Projected PA and IP have been added to the Auction Value tables for handy reference.
2. The Team field is now hyperlinked to a Team page specially designed for fantasy baseball usage. Each team page includes useful links (e.g, depth charts), an MLB news feed, projections, and previous year stats. Click here to see the Chicago Cubs page.

All auction values are based on a \$ split of 67% hitting, 33% pitching. Please feel free to adjust based on your desired hit/pitch mix. We project for the ESPN/CBSSports standard roster (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P, 20 game position eligibility) and the Yahoo! standard roster (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/3 OF/2 UTIL/2 SP/2 RP/4 P, 5 game position eligibility).

Please, blog, may I have some more?
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