There was an article at Fangraphs titled, “On Orlando Arcia‘s Lack of Power.” I didn’t read the article, because its SEO jackhammer title sorta gave me an idea as to what it was going to be about. Arcia is only 21 years old, so the title might’ve been better off being, “Orlando Arcia’s Lack of Power, But, I Mean, He is Super Young and It Could Develop.” If his power does develop, he will be a first round fantasy talent, because everything else is gorge. Like the Continental Army is going to set up at Valley Gorge and beat those Brits or at least not drink their tea. Arcia hits .300, he doesn’t strikeout much, he is capable of thirty steals and he’s a shortstop. Going back to the lack of power, I decided to watch about a month’s worth of Arcia’s at-bats condensed into a three-minute video. Thank you, iMovie. Know what I took away from that? The reason he hasn’t hit for power. I’m honestly not even sure why someone needed to write an article about his lack of power, because if you watch him it’s as obvious as the schnoz on Jon Niese’s face. He doesn’t hit for power because he looks like Edgar Renteria. I mean, he looks just like him. As if him and Renteria were attached at one point and Ben Carson separated them. Right now, people are likely barfing in their mouth, swishing it around and spitting it into their scrapbook labeled, “Renteria,” but Renteria wasn’t always terrible. He had a few 10+ homer, 30+ SB seasons when he was young. Renteria also had a .286 batting average over 2100 major league games, and suddenly this post became the Wikipedia page for Renteria. Anyway, what can we expect from Orlando Arcia for 2016 fantasy baseball?Please, blog, may I have some more?
I’m a bit rookie pitcher-phobic. Waking up in a dank dungeon missing a kidney after being slipped a roofie from a rookie pitcher will do that to you. By the by, all dungeons are dank, don’t tell Previous Sentence Grey. This is why I tend to focus mostly on bats when I’m breaking down the rookies that will impact 2016 fantasy baseball (take that deft SEO, Bleacher Report!). Today, I turn my lazy, left googly eye towards a rookie pitcher. Before I wrote up this rookie pitcher post, I decided that I wanted a guy that was on the cusp of breaking into the majors, after diligently researching what a cusp was. So, it’s not a plural misspelled cup? Noted. This guy I found (don’t look at the title, it’ll ruin the surprise) should’ve been up in the majors last year. In fact, I wrote a Buy for him in August. Okay, okay, his name is Jose Berrios. Hi ho the Berrios, snitches! Here’s what I said last August, “If I could quickly evaluate the Twins current crop of starters that are prospblocking Berrios: Garbage, More Garbage, Utter Garbage, Shirley Manson in Garbage, Magic Garbage. (Magic Garbage is Utah garbage where you find soiled magic underpants.) I haven’t even started talking about how Berrios was bred in a lab in Knott’s Berry Farm by the founder of the boysenberry, Rudolph Boysen, whose grandchild killed his parents and is currently behind bars (true story; yes, Dateline is dropping the ball by not featuring this). The only thing that’s been stopping me from adding Berrios in every league is I have no idea when he’ll be called up.” And that’s me quoting me! The Twins’ pitching rotation isn’t going to be better come April. That’s why Berrios will start the year with the club. Anyway, what can we expect of Jose Berrios for 2016 fantasy baseball?Please, blog, may I have some more?
It feels like the Tigers have been searching for a closer since Todd Jones retired — Percival, Valverde, Nathan, Soria. They prey on dead meat so much, they’re more like the Vultures than Tigers. Papelbon recently was heard saying, “I am going to close forever. Wait, are those Tigers’ front office people circling above me? Crap!” It’s too bad none of the Syrian refugees don’t have closing experience. So, hopefully, the Tigers’ wait to find a closer is finally over. Unless Bruce Rondon is reading this, then the wait has just begun. Assuming Francisco Rodriguez doesn’t get off the plane in Detroit, see an Alburquerque jersey, think he’s in New Mexico, then beat the crap out of an American Airlines pilot for flying him to the wrong city, and get arrested by federal authorities for beating up an employee of a company with the word “American” in the name and get sent to Gitmo. Sure, this sounds unlikely, not impossible though. With K-rod sent to the Tigers, I’ll give him the projections of 4-2/2.69/1.02/66, 42 saves in 61 IP. As for the Brewers, their closer now is Jeremy Jeffress, Will Smith or Corey Knebel, i.e., the offseason is still young and they could trade for someone. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Before watching the video on Lucas Giolito, I looked at his vitals. This is something I don’t usually do. Doesn’t really matter to me if a guy is six-foot-one or five-ten. But, dizzamn, Giolito is a strapping young man, huh? He’s listed at six-six and 230. He’s only 21 years old, but I think he’s done growing. Hopefully, cause his mom tells CBS Sports that his “feet already hang off the bed.” With a six-six frame, as you can imagine, he throws fast. (Christall Young is the exception that proves the rule, which never made any sense to me. If it’s an exception, how does it prove anything? It proves that there’s exceptions, but that’s about it, right? I’m gonna move on before my brain hurts in my thought-nodes.) Giolito hits 97 MPH on his fastball, which is actually up a tick from the previous year. If he keeps steadily increasing his fastball every year, by the time he’s 40 years old, he’s going to be throwing 117 MPH. He throws from nearly right over the top, so the ball fires downhill and hitters have about no chance of hitting it. A 9+ K/9 seems to be a given once he gets settled in the majors. With speed comes no control, to sound like a drunk Yoda. Or does it?! Snap, reversed on that. No, Giolito has control too. 97 MPH with command? I’ll say it for you, hummna-hummna. Oh, and his strikeout pitch is his hard breaking curve. In 20 years, Al Pacino could be playing the role of a Hall of Fame pitcher in the film, Giolito’s Way. Assuming Pacino has eighteen-inch stilettos. Anyway, what can we expect from Lucas Giolito for 2016 fantasy baseball?Please, blog, may I have some more?
As I previously mentioned, Prospect Mike had a large (foam) hand in what prospects I covered as rookies that could impact in 2016 fantasy baseball. I used his Midseason Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Prospects list, and asked him for input. In case you couldn’t tell from his Mike Schmidt avatar, it’s no secret he’s a Phillies fan, a phan. I mention this now because today’s prospect is J.P. Crawford, the top prospect in the Phillies system. So, I had to be a cyclops with a monocle to make sure Prospect Mike wasn’t using Liberty Bell IPA goggles when he listed Crawford high up in his prospect lists. Prospect Mike said, “Crawford should sit comfortably in the top twenty on just about every prospect list this spring. There’s 20/20 upside at shortstop and a high floor thanks to an advanced approach. The 20-year-old will likely reach the majors midsummer and a fair comparison would be Addison Russell in Chicago – albeit with a tick less power and a tick more speed. The left side of the infield in Philly is loaded with fantasy potential. Imagine, if you will, Grey’s brain, but instead of empty it’s full.” Aw, man, Mike’s mean to me! So, Crawford is a cousin of Carl Crawford, and not related to J.P. Arencibia, according to the research I did. Crawford doesn’t have his cousin’s speed or the unrelated Arencibia’s power. Crawford is a shortstop though, so immediately he becomes interesting as a fantasy commodity. How interesting is the question, which is actually a statement. Weird, right? No, you’re weird! Anyway, what can we expect from J.P. Crawford for 2016 fantasy baseball?Please, blog, may I have some more?
For the uninitiated, a Three True Outcome (TTO) player is one that walks, Ks or homers. That’s it. A famous example of this is Adam Dunn aka The Big Donkey. The Three True Outcome label works for baseball. Real baseball, that is. It doesn’t encapsulate everything for fantasy. That’s where the Donkey label comes in. A Donkey is player that Ks, homers and steals. Big Donkey once stole 19 bases, and perennially stole more than seven bases a year, until he became more Big than Donkey. Mini Donkey, Mark Reynolds, had himself a nice little run for a few years, once stealing 24 bases. Mini Mini Donkey, Ian Stewart, failed to live up to his Donkey expectations. Perhaps the Donkey expectations are what ended up dragging him down, I don’t know, I’m not a psychologist in matters of the donkey. So, hopefully, when we call Joey Gallo, Donkey Dong Jr., we are not putting unrealistic expectations on him. Shame to think Donkey expectations were what did in any player when Donkey expectations mean no harm. Donkey expectations just want a roof over its head, a hot meal and foot rub from a topless dame. Last year, Gallo hit six homers and stole three bases in only 108 at-bats for the Rangers while hitting 14 homers in 53 Triple-A games. Am I reluctantly failing to mention his Ks? If they were as bad as Gallo’s, you’d be reluctant too. Anyway, what can we expect of Joey Gallo for 2016 fantasy baseball?Please, blog, may I have some more?
Yesterday, the Twins traded Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for serial-killer-in-name-only, John Ryan Murphy. Here’s what I said earlier this year, “When Hicks first came up, people thought he was going to be better than that Pollock fella. No, not a stereotypical dumb person, but as in A.J. Pollock. In Double-A, Hicks had 12 homers, 32 steals and a .285 average. Then strikeouts enveloped his game in the majors and he hit .192 with a 27% K-rate in 2013, and hit .215 with a 25% K-rate in 2014, but this year, .277 and a 17% K-rate! That’s a huge improvement. That’s what she said! What?” And that’s me quoting me! On a side note, am I the only that sees K-rate and then tries to chop in half a wooden block while screaming hi-ya? “Today, Daniel-san, we will talk about K-rate.” No? Okay, maybe it’s just me. *Grey does a flying crane kick* “Oh, he’s been practicing his K-rate.” Still nothing? Okay, I’m moving on. One more Pollock comparison that is likely coincidental but I’m gonna throw it out there. Pollock didn’t break out until his age-27 season and Hicks is only 26. Okay, one more Pollock comparison, Pollock never stole 39 bases in the minors leagues, but just did it in the majors. Hicks never stole more than the aforementioned 32 bases, but that means nothing. Okay, fine, one more Pollock comparison! Pollock never hit more than ten homers in the minors and he just hit 20 homers in the majors. So who cares Hicks never hit more than 13 homers in the minors. That’s still above anything Pollock did. Okay, and I really mean it this time, one more comparison to Pollock. The excitement I had last year for A.J. Pollock when I called him a sleeper is nearly identical to the excitement I have right now for Hicks. Okay, okay, one final thing on Pollock! The mistake I made last year when I didn’t draft him after flagging him as a breakout won’t be repeated with Hicks. Let’s go over quickly what Hicks did last year, he hit 11 homers with a 11% home run to fly ball ratio, which is completely repeatable, so last year in 155 games he would’ve had 18 homers. He also had 13 steals and four steals in September. If he stole 4 bags every month, he’d have 24 steals. Last year, he had a .256 batting average with a .285 BABIP, which is low for him. He’s got some speed and a .310 BABIP isn’t out of the question (he had years of a .340+ BABIP in the minors). If he gets to a .310 BABIP, he’s going to hit .270. Really, that’s not a stretch, which is also a nickname no one ever called Altuve. 18 HRs, 24 steals with a .270 average on the year? If he would’ve done that, I’m not sure we’d even be talking about Hicks as a sleeper, but rather as a top 20 outfielder. And this isn’t me fighting hard to get him to these numbers. Like a migrant worker, I’m cherrypicking a little with the steals by saying he’s going to get four a month because he did that in September, except (!) he’s likely closer to a guy that could take six bags per month. When Steamer projects Hicks for 10 HRs and 11 steals with a .256 in 2016, it doesn’t worry me. It actually makes me more excited because that means most people aren’t going to be excited about him. Steamer is very conservative and doesn’t flag breakouts; that’s my job. For 2016, I’ll give Hicks the projections of 82/15/52/.274/26, assuming the Yankees find a way to get him a starting job this offseason, which seems all but assured. So, my question for you is, who’s the Pollock now? Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Okay, I cheated to come up with the rookies to do a fantasy outlook post on. I asked Prospect Mike for his top ten prospects that will impact fantasy baseball in 2016. I didn’t necessarily lean over and read off of PM’s test, but before the exam, I said, “Listen, Prospect Mike, we’re either gonna have words after school or you’re gonna let me look at your top ten fantasy baseball prospect list.” What was PM to do? Show me a PSA on bullying done by Chris Pratt? I’d bully Chris Pratt too if I had a chance, so I don’t listen to some PSA done by a celebrity in exchange for a reduction to their community service. Why now do I reveal my deck that is filled with 52 aces? Because I didn’t have a clue who Nomar Mazara was, but PM is hyped up on him like Lady Gaga gets hyped up about meat dresses. After doing some research, you could now say I… *pinkie to mouth* Nomar. Though I still think Mazara sounds like a character actor that would appear in a John Cassavetes film. If you’re like me and thinking, “Mazara? Did he co-star with Seymour Cassel?” Then, I’ll catch you up. Mazara came on this year like a contestant on Wipeout that doesn’t get knocked down once. A rare feat, I know. He hit 13 HRs and stole two bags in Double-A, while hitting .284. Bleh, whatever, right? Yeah, he was the 4th youngest player in Double-A. He’s only 20 years old. Then, in Triple-A after his promotion, he hit .358. Here’s what Prospect Mike said last year, “Now that Nomar’s arguably the best outfield prospect in baseball, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him taken in the later rounds of 2016 redraft leagues either.” The best outfield prospect in baseball? That gets me jacked like I just downed five Red Bulls without the resulting thyroid problems. Anyway, what can we expect of Nomar Mazara for 2016 fantasy baseball?Please, blog, may I have some more?
In my 2016 fantasy baseball rookies series that has a spinoff in the works titled, 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rookies: The College Years, I try to keep these rookies juicy as all get-out. Like the hype for said player is so juicy it can only be described as drip-down-the-chin juicy. It is more juicy than the seat of Kim Kardashian’s sweatpants that actually read Juicy! With that said (grab onto something, Grey’s turning the ship!), Hector Olivera isn’t that juicy. Maybe it’s being on the Braves that sucks the juicy out of him. To find out, let me do an experiment. *rolls an elderly man into the room* The Braves! *elderly man yawns* The Rockies at home! *elderly man gasps, clutching his heart* That experiment confirms my suspicions. The Braves just aren’t that exciting. *turns back to elderly man* I’ll call the paramedic when I’m done with the post. There’s no cure for this yawnstipation, as far as I can see. The one good thing about a rookie playing on the Braves is I’d be shocked if Olivera doesn’t play from day one and get penciled in at the top of the order. I mean who else do the Braves have? Adorable Adonis Garcia? Ryan Lavarnway and Shirley? Nick Swisher’s Sideburns? I don’t think the Sideburns can even play 3rd base. I mean, they’re just hair. Anyway, what can we expect of Hector Olivera for 2016 fantasy baseball?Please, blog, may I have some more?
The first thing I like to do for all prospects, Aaron Judge included, is look up their video highlights, because I’m not familiar with them as much as I want to be. Aaron Judge looks like Giancarlo Stanton. A few things on comparing him to Giancarlo. I did it first, then Googled Aaron Judge + Giancarlo and a lot, I mean, a lot of people have compared the two. That means nothing, because now I’m comparing him to Giancarlo and Giancarlo is my novio and we have a daughter together that we named Giancarla, so when I compare someone to Giancarlo, it is said with profound love and a sharp crease in my khakis. I don’t think I’ve ever compared another player to Giancarlo before. That is the kind of praise Aaron Judge is currently receiving. If Robert Downey Jr. and Robert Duvall would’ve starred in a movie about this Judge, the movie would’ve been good. You feel me? Okay, stop touching me now. Judge looks like he could hit 40 homers with the Yankees tomorrow. That’s, of course, if there were games tomorrow. (Only 140 more days without baseball!) I don’t think Judge is 100% butter, i.e., as good as Giancarlo. I’m not just saying that because Giancarlo and I have matching tattoos. The stats seem to bear that out, or bare if you’re a nudist. In Double-A, Judge hit 12 homers in 63 games at the age of 23. Giancarlo hit 21 homers in 53 games in Double-A at the age of 20, then hit 20 homers that same year with the Marlins. Giancarlo is a once-in-a-decade bat; Judge is similar, just not quite there, which in itself is very impressive. And it’s not just that Judge stands six-seven and is 230 pounds bone-dry. His swing looks like my Gian-novio. Judge is a giant beast of a man and mollywhops with the best of them. This is not fiction, this is biographical, researchable evidence. Anyway, what can we expect of Aaron Judge for 2016 fantasy baseball?Please, blog, may I have some more?