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On each Sunday we’re going to try and answer your 2008 fantasy baseball questions. Is this every fantasy baseball question we receive? No, but it’s a few of the better ones that were emailed directly to us at info[at]razzball.com. So if you want some fantasy baseball advice that can’t get answered in the comments section, then there you go. Please ask the minor questions i.e. Should I drop Chad Cordero for Santiago Casilla? (yes, you should) in the comment section. It’ll be a quicker answer there from Grey or I (or even a regular commenter). Thanks, we really do appreciate your support and feedback. (But if you try to hug me, it might get weird.)

QUESTION:

Now, I am not going to say which side of the deal I am on but here is a trade that went down in my league yesterday:

Team A agreed to deal Yovani Gallardo to Team B for Nick Markakis yesterday morning.  Unfortunately, we play in a league that votes on trades (I know…whole other topic there).  The commissioner announced the deal prior to the Brewers game.  Four votes trickled in before the news broke today regarding Gallardo being out for the year.

My question is this:

Should league owners be voting on this trade based on when the deal was agreed upon or based on circumstances that have occurred since then.

ANSWER:

Your league owners SHOULD be reviewing this trade without factoring in the injury news as that was the status of Gallardo when the trade was made.  Same as if Gallardo went out there and threw a no-hitter or gave up 8 runs in the first.

Whether they will or not is another matter.

I think there’s a fair argument that Markakis is worth more than Gallardo in any case.  Not enough that I would veto (Razzball is anti-veto) but the case could be made by a veto-friendly owner.  (The tough part is knowing whether the injury pushes them over the edge.)

Let us know how it turns out.

QUESTION:

In the 9-team 8×8 roto league with L, CG, K/BB, H, TB, and XBH added to basic Yahoo! 5×5.  I’m trying to become more independent of experts and pundits and such with my analyses and player projections, and I think I’m getting the hang of it.  What I would like to know is how you get your BAO, briefly, and what your BAO lines are for 2008.  I think I found your batting lines of

C – 47 / 13 / 57 / 2 / 0.273 (Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada, AJ Pierzynski)
1B – 63 / 18 / 68 / 1 / 0.279 (Matt Stairs, Conor Jackson, Aubrey Huff)
2B – 79 / 11 / 61 / 9 / 0.288 (Orlando Hudson, Brendan Harris, Mark DeRosa)
SS – 72 / 11/ 60 / 11 / 0.279 (Brendan Harris, Jack Wilson)
3B – 70 / 18 / 72 / 4 / 0.279 (Kevin Kouzmanoff, Mark Reynolds, Aubrey Huff)
OF – 67 / 14 / 65 / 6 / 0.273 (Luis Gonzalez, Austin Kearns, JD Drew)

but I do not have anything for pitchers except a reference to Carlos Silva and 3.96 / 1.32.  What are the expectations for SP and RP BAO this year?

As for my team, I’ve done tons of trades since the beginning of the season and it’s changed quite a bit.  My current roster:

C – Geovany Soto
1B – Garrett Atkins
2B – Chase Utley
3B – Aramis Ramirez
SS – Ryan Theriot
OF – Matt Holliday
OF – Alex Ríos
OF – Carl Crawford
Util – Josh Hamilton
BN – Justin Upton
BN – Conor Jackson
BN – Evan Longoria
DL – Troy Tulowitzki

SP – Cole Hamels
SP – James Shields
RP – J. J. Putz
RP – Joe Nathan
P – Matt Capps
P – Javier Vázquez
P – Santiago Casilla
BN – Max Scherzer
BN – Garrett Olson
DL – Rafael Soriano
DL – John Lackey

Now for a few specific questions about my team, if you’d be so kind.  Is Putz something to worry about?  He pitched 94 and 95 mph consistently during that blown save, just never in the strike zone.  I already made an offer of Geovany Soto for Bobby Jenks today (Dioner Navarro and Jeff Clement are FA) just in case.  Next, I kicked Brett Myers to the curb the day before Gallardo blew his ACL.  Is the long toss really his answer, or is he trash this year?  I’m personally beginning to think he punched his wife on a ‘roid rage.  My other available options besides him are Jonathan Broxton, Wandy Rodríguez, John Danks, and Shawn Hill.  With Soriano likely losing his job to Smoltz I have also had an eye on Rich Harden, who may come back for 10 to 20 minutes in the near future.  What do you think?

Also if you see any glaring weaknesses in my team (besides CG, I don’t have one yet and am one of only 3 teams with none) let me know.

RUDY’S ANSWER:

Here’s the 2007 BAO for pitchers:
Starters – 11 W, 4.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 191 IP, 132 Ks
Relievers – 4 W, 6 SV, 3.31 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 68 IP, 61 K

(The 3.96/1.32 is the composite of the two)

The BAO methodology is laid out HERE.

I can’t provide it for 2008 as it requires having a full year of stats and then determining the replacement level totals for each stat for each position.  I could’ve done this based on 2008 projections but I moved to the Point Shares methodology (explanation and methodology HERE.  It’s an improvement in our eyes as it ties back to Roto points.

If you’re trying to do something based on BAO, I’d just work off the same totals as last year.  It’s too early to assume any major shifts between the two years.

I don’t see why you’d trade Soto for Jenks as you seem set on closers.  Too early to bail on Putz.  Nathan and Capps are solid.  I’d think Smoltz would close if he relieves, so Soriano would be out.  If you can get anything for him, go ahead.  Otherwise, he’s probably useless in your league.   Hamels, Shields, and Vazquez are a solid starting three.  Lackey is due back on May 14th.  Nice you got Scherzer.  Not sure why you have Olson – is he a friend of the family?  I don’t see any FA out there that would replace your pitching lineup so it’s not a big deal.

Tough break with Tulo.  Theriot is your weakest link but he’s been hot. Assuming no one is stashing SS on their bench, you should be able to rotate SS for a while.

  1. Peter says:
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    Howdy Rudy – here’s another question: It’s time for me to cut ties w/ Manny Parra. Both these A’s are available, who do you like more: Gaudin or Duchscherer?

  2. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    I guess I’m on the side of being a gentleman in regards to something like an injury happening exactly after a trade is made. Winning is awesome and everything, but it’s not like you had Gallardo for 5 starts then he gets injured and you’re at the customer service counter at Target demanding your Markakis back. If this trade happened a week ago, then I’d say tough luck Gallardo owner, but there’s such a fine line here and it reeks of minimum wage earning annoying customer service person breath.

    Be a gentleman and veto the trade. Winning at the expense of another’s ignorance is what casinos are for.

  3. Marc says:
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    I’ve been offered a trade of Micah Owings for my Brian Roberts. I have offense, but am lacking in pitching. My starters are Oswalt/Snell/Eveland/Danks/Kuroda. I have SB’s from Furcal/Cameron/Sizemore/Kemp/Holliday. I could counter for James Shields.

    Thoughts?

    Thanks for the great site, BTW. Keep up the great work!

  4. @Peter – Here’s my feeling on Parra. It’s worth investing one roster spot on a young pitcher with high K-potenial. You have to be willing to bench them if they’re cold but you need to stick w/ them. Gallardo got rocked 2 starts in a row late last year and then had a bunch of great starts.

    So the question is: Do you have Volquez, Cueto, or Scherzer? If not, pick up Parra. If so, I’d stick w/ those three (but, as a Cueto owner, I’m REALLY hoping for a start to reaffirm my faith).

    Gaudin and Duchsauce – ugh…neither interest me in 10 or 12 team MLB leagues. I’d go with Duchsauce b/c he might have some upside.

    @Cubs – I imagine that’s the way it’ll shake out in that league – unless, of course, one of the stronger players is getting the shaft. I wonder if anyone out there made a trade for Tulo and YoGa. Wow would that suck….

  5. @marc – Micah for Roberts? No way. You should be able to get a top 20 starter – hopefully from someone with strong pitching depth. Guys like Haren, Harang, Lackey (risky but he’s coming back on the 14th), Sheets (another risky one), Vazquez, Dice-K, Verlander, F-Her, Lincecum, C-Young, and Zambrano. Guys like Wainwright, J-Shields, Hudson, and Maine would be livable reaches if you got desperate.

  6. Dim says:
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    Trade question, any thoughts appreciated; I just lost Gallardo, and have been getting by without Rollins so far.

    giving up JRoll, R. Weeks, R. Betancourt
    getting Ian Kinsler, J. Rauch, D. Haren, D. McGowan

    12 team mixed league, 20 player roster
    R/HR/RBI/AVG/SB/XBH
    W/L/ERA/SV/WHIP/K

    Victor Martinez
    Adrian Gonzalez
    Rickie Weeks
    Felipe Lopez
    R. Zimmerman
    L. Berkman
    N. Markakis
    J. Hermida
    Conor Jackson
    J. Dye
    J. Ellsbury
    J. Pierre
    [J. Rollins DL]

    D. Matsuzaka
    C. Zambrano
    Javier Vazquez
    C. Buchholz
    J. Weaver
    R. Betancourt
    B. Wilson
    H. Bailey (just lost Gallardo, picked Bailey up on a flyer until S. Baker passes waivers)

    thanks for the site!

  7. @Dim – Interesting trade. Ok, let’s take Betancourt and Rauch out and say they are of equal value. Same for Kinsler and Weeks. So you’re trading J-Roll a top 15 player for Haren a top 50 player and McGowan who doesn’t make the top 100. Looking at your staff, I don’t even see a huge need for McGowan. So I’m thinking you can get more in trade.

    Plus, you’ve got Lopez as the backup SS. Ugh.

    Baker is an ok addition but I’d rather use a strong high-K middle reliever. Less wear and tear on your ERA/WHIP and less Losses. Casilla on Oakland looks good. Thornton on Chicago is throwing well.

    If you were to trade anyone, I’d look at V-Mart and Zimmerman. V-Mart just has more risk b/c he’s a catcher and Zimmerman won’t be turning those doubles into Homers until July/August.

    Good luck…
    Rudy

  8. Dim says:
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    Thanks; I’m glad someone else sees Weeks as vaguely equivalent to Kinsler. On Zimmerman I’m thinking of riding out his recovery period, maybe picking up Kouzmanoff to platoon on the road; you think Zimm’s September is gonna be worth that spot? With Berk/Markkkk/Hermida/CJack as my power OF/Util, Dye seems pretty expendable and I’d rather shore up 3B.

    Shooting for a top tier pitcher (Peavy/Hamels/Felix/Harang/Haren are on teams w/ weak catchers) plus an upgrade at closer for V-Mart and Betancourt. Greedy?

  9. I’m not enamored with Zimmerman but in a 12 team league, he’s worth owning. I’ve got Kouz on two teams and not loving him either – I’m hoping he’s a second half player too. But Kouz is another guy that should be owned so he’s worth having on the team.

    Is he worth dropping Dye over? I’d say no for now. I’ve got Dye higher being more valuable in my Point Share rankings by a nice margin. I’d look for a team willing to bite on Hermida or Dye to see if you could at least get a good middle reliever arm.

    Greedy on that – no. Likelihood of finding a partner – very little. But look for a partner where it might make sense….

  10. BSA says:
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    2nd and 3rd base rotation questions based on getting dinged up. I have Kinsler, ARam , Longoria, and Figgins as options at second and third. Based on my info I am thinking of putting Longoria at third and Kinsler at second. Based on schedule and the points they all earned this past week any one of them should be able to improve, yet I don’t see ARam crushing any homers with a sore wrist and the speedster Figgins should be slowed down upon return. Any opinions? The rest of the lineup for the week is Mauer, Morneau, Renteria, Thome, Damon, Quentin, and Kemp with Wells and Varitek on the bench. Pitchers being Becket, Myers, Bedard, Cueto, Volquez, Fuentes, Papelbon with Ryan and Hudson on the bench. Opinions or something I am missing?

  11. Mike says:
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    Thanks for the advice, Rudy. The Soto for Jenks offer got accepted, and I’m fine with it since I got Navarro on the side. If he craps out I still have Napoli, Clement, and perhaps K. Suzuki if the guy who just got Soto drops him. I made this trade because I felt like my batting power was more than sufficient (I am leading in 5 of the 8 batting categories and contending in the rest) and my pitching has been very bad so far, so bad that even with 72 points off batting, the 31.5 points from pitching keep me out of first place (my 103.5 trails the leader at 124).

    The guy ahead of me has pitched better than I have so far, but I think I now have the edge on his staff and smooth sailing toward league victory.

    His: Owings, Vólquez, Cliff Lee, Chris Young, Jurrjens, Hudson, Kazmir, Smoltz, Soria, Lidge, Fuentes, Saito

    Mine: Hamels, Vázquez, Shields, Scherzer, Myers, Lackey, Nathan, Putz, Capps, Jenks

    With an overabundance of power and underwhelming speed, I think I may even benefit from Theriot. Peralta just got kicked though; think I should make the claim even with my ample power?

  12. Get figgy with it says:
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    I have McCann on one of my teams. I was offered Cole Hamels for him. I can pick Napoli up off FA. I only have 4 SP in Cain, Zambrano, Wainwright, and Penny.

    What do you think?

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Get figgy with it: Yeah, I’d do that trade. Hamels and Napoli for McCann is a good move.

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