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I’m not sure anyone can hit Aroldis Chapman.  For a pitcher, that’s a pretty good thing.  If you speak street, he be fire on Crunk Juice.  He can throw the ball faster than Bob Feller on a motorcycle.  Fidel Castro used to karaoke Sublime by singing, “I don’t practice Santeria, I can’t see Aroldis’ fastball.”  It’s fast.  We’ll leave it at that.  There’s really no question.  Let’s give some numbers now.  In 26 IP of his rookie year, 25 Ks, 1.15 WHIP and a 2.42 ERA.  Then in his sophomore year, his numbers were 160 2/3 IP, 130 Ks, 1.51 WHIP and a 4.82 ERA.  His wildness really stopped him from being successful with 96 walks.  There were definitely some flashes of brilliance, but almost completely unownable in fantasy.  Wait, next year hasn’t happened yet. Oh, right, random italicized voice.  My bad.  Those are the rookie and sophomore numbers for Randy Johnson.  These two aren’t the same player, but A) Randy is the player Chapman is most compared to B) Aroldis is a wild, nasty lefty C) There’s no C.   So will Aroldis’ 2011 be a wash like Randy’s 2nd season?  What can we expect Aroldis Chapman for 2011 fantasy baseball?

There won’t be a more exciting name on the pitching side next year.  I imagine ESPN will ticker us every time he throws more than 103 MPH.  I kinda think he would be better for fantasy next year as a middle reliever.  If he walks a guy or two per inning when pitching only one inning, he can get himself of out the jam.  If he starts a game and walks one or two guys per inning for the first four innings, it’s going to catch up to him.  As a starter in the minors last year, Aroldis threw 65 2/3 IP with mixed results.  The Ks are obviously always going to be there (76 of ‘em), but his ERA was 4.11 and his WHIP was 1.52.  That was in the minors.  If those numbers don’t make you act a bit more conservatively with Chapman in 2011, there’s probably nothing I can say.  To go back to the earlier comparison, it took Randy four years (until his age 29 year) to break through with the walks.  Next year, I’ll give Aroldis Chapman the line of 9-4/4.00/1.40/140 in 130 IP.  Obviously, if finds the secret potion to help his control, his numbers can be way above that.  Will definitely be worth the flier, but don’t reach too far because there’s a ton of risk there too.

  1. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    There’s a new post in forums. Evaluates how FanGraphs 2009 bounce-back candidates performed in 2010; list of 2011 bounce-backs; includes link to 2011 spreadsheet of BABIP,xBABIP,etc.

    http://razzball.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=13753

    ‘Aroldis’ is anagram ‘Rolaids’ and you KNOW what that portends!

  2. Al Swedgin says:
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    “What can we expect Arolidis Chapman”

    Grey, did you purposely mis-spell his first name to invoke “A Roll of Dice?”

    You’re a genius.

  3. Justin says:
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    Grey, any chance you will do an Outlook on Latos? Chapman non sequitur…I know.

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @simply fred: Cool, will check it out.

    @Al Swedgin: Um… Hmm… Yeah, but I think it’ll be lost on people so I’m going to correct it. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

    @Justin: I’ll talk plenty about Latos in the offseason. May not always be that positive, unfortunately.

  5. Stephen says:
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    @Grey: I think that the previous title waas simply brilliant.

  6. Kid 'n Play says:
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    @Grey: In my keeper league I just traded Werth for Chacin and Marcum… I know you are high on Yoolees but I am curious what you opinion is about Werth and Marcum? Depending on where Werth signs it could bite me in the ass. Or do you think with him being away from Citizens Park that his numbers will take a hit anyway?

    btw, you are having frequent updates this offseason. loving it!

  7. Long Bawls says:
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    @all: It’s fall and a young man’s fancy turns to fantasy team names (apologies to anyone who linked here via “fancy young man”), mainly because there’s not a lot else going on. I’m thinking either:

    The Bill Shames
    or
    First Drowned Raft Picks

    Any opinions? Too tortured? I only have four months to mull.

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Kid ‘n Play: New post five days a week. Werth’s value is completely tied to where he lands. I have a sinking feeling it’s going to be in San Diego, but I have nothing at all to back that up. I’m going to love Marcum and Yo-lease this offseason but that trade is still just fair. Hitters are just safer. If he goes to Petco, my opinion could change.

    @Long Bawls: Have you tried:

    http://razzball.com/fantasy-baseball-team-name-generator/

  9. Steve says:
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    Votto wins NL MVP.

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Wow, nice! I told some of youse to grab him last preseason, huh?

  11. Steve says:
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    @Grey: You did? Oh yeah – you did!

    Kept him for $26 in ’10, keeping him for ’31 in ’11 – he didn’t fall to me anywhere else this year (sad trombone).

    This is funny:

    http://deadspin.com/5696462/

    Anyone clicking on it – come back here when you’re done!

  12. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: That is funny. I love that his name is Murray too. It just sounds so antiquated.

  13. Steve says:
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    @Grey: I’ve mentioned it before, but I just think it’s fantastuc that he wrote ‘new-fangled’ without the merest hint of irony.

    By the same token, there seems to be a real know-it-all attitude creeping into a lot of stats-based commentary which, in its own way, is just as irritating as Chass and co.

  14. MikeMoustaches says:
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    @Grey: heart, heart, emoticon, …

  15. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, new-fangled cracks me up every time too. Totally re: your other point… Just read some of the comments over at Fangraphs and you’ll see a bunch of people that know everything.

  16. Long Bawls says:
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    Nice!

  17. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Apparently Keith Law is astounded that Car-Go finished 3rd. Thought Tulo was better (if I’m reading him right).

    He pisses me off too.

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: He’s a douche, for sure. Very arrogant.

  19. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: Concur your assessment of know-it-alls at FanGraphs (who don’t).

  20. Steve says:
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    @simply fred: @Grey: I think we can all agree that baseball is a numbers game – but it is played by humans.

  21. Black Beard says:
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    Any fantasy impact on Dunn if he goes to the Tigers?

  22. Steve says:
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    With reference to some comments I posted yesterday, and at the risk of labouring the whole 22 November/Dallas thing, this:

    http://www.amazon.com/JFK-Shots-That-Changed-America/dp/B002PTVMWO

    started on the History Channel here the other night. Only part-way through Ep1 but it is fantastic. Footage shot on the day, from numerous (and I mean numerous) sources, with absolutely no narration.

    Terrific stuff.

  23. Jimmy Crack Corn says:
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    Utley or King Felix in dynasty? Is it close?

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @simply fred: Yup

    @Steve: Exactly

    @Black Beard: There’s very few players that will do exactly the same no matter where they play. Dunn’s one of them.

    @Steve: Cool, will try to check it out.

  25. mic says:
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    Who would you rather keep Hunter Pence or Alex Rios? I’ve known you (Grey) for about two years and a half years now, so I’m assuming you would rather have Pence and its not that close. Pence is much more consistent, slightly improves each year (even though his peripherals don’t exactly agree), and he’s younger. Rios on the other hand, is pretty much a lock for 20/20 plus much more, but he can also shit all over your team. I also feel Rios has a higher ceiling than Pence.

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @mic: Pence

  27. Dr. Orlando Schadenfreude says:
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    Prince Fielder or Tex in a keeper league? Either one would cost me my 2nd round pick. I’m thinking even if its pretty much a wash next year, Fielder has got to have more long term value, right?

  28. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    probably not a good time for this (amidst the bashing of “know-it-alls”) ,
    but i gotta call you out on this ==> 96 times out of a hundred , you’re
    picking king felix over utley in a dynasty league .

    those other 4 times prolly have something to do with the immediate
    potential to capture a league title , that utley’s bat might give you ,

    but , otherwise , there ain’t no way in hell that you would choose a 32 year
    old star , on the down-slope of his career , over a 24 year old cy young winner who well could rack up 200+ k’s/year for the next decade .

    what would Grey 2013 say ?

    admit it ,
    like the rest of us that owned felix for the 2010 season ,
    you’re still a little piss-y about that whole “Wins” thing … cy young , or not.

    are you willing to risk jimmy crack corn coming after you , 3 years down the road ?

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Eh, Greinke seemed like a sure thing last offseason too. Pitchers are a lot less predictable. It is close though, but Utley’s position is too valuable.

  30. Eddy says:
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    Oh wow, it’s good to see I’m not the only one noticing those FanGraph comments. But more than anything I ALWAYS read a comment that severely chastises the author on his grammar. That one ticks me off bc the author may have labored researching the stats for said article only to have someone come in and decide the article is a joke because grammar wasn’t used correctly.
    @Grey:
    I made a slight error the other day. I asked whether or not it’s worth drafting Harper in 2011 to keep him for three years. You said no. However, I said that I’d keep him from 2011-2013. It’d actually be from 2012-2014 with a 3 round inflation per year. Still a pass? Or should I go ahead an draft him?

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Draft him where? In the last round? Do you have the room on your bench to watch him sit for a year and change? He may not make any noise for fantasy until mid-2012.

  32. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    Yea he’d definitely go in round 23 and not one pick higher. And I definitely hear ya, but I know that if I let him go he’s going to get picked up/drafted this year and the manager will go all Kevin Towers and demand some ludicrous price. If the media can stop drooling over his every move I’d love to wait until 2012 to draft him, but they’re blowing him up way more than Strasburg. Heck, I think you need to write a post about him pretty much saying that he’ll be useless in 2011. I’m pretty sure thatll shut me up.

  33. MikeMoustaches says:
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    @Eddy: “I’m pretty sure thatll shut me up.”

    Hey, ever heard of a little thing called the apostrophe, genius? I can now disregard the rest of your comment…

  34. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    ok . so i pretty much wrote off vernon wells , back in ’07 .
    this year he hits 31 homers .

    can you give me comparative projections for wells and quentin , for 2011 .

    not sure what to think .

    thanking you , in advance .

  35. Whoa man. I’m super stoned, and when you talked about Aroldis’ second season, I was losing my mind for two/three sentences.

    Well played, Mauer.

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