Comments on: Arizona Diamondbacks, 2010 Minor League Review

By: Stephen

Stephen — Sat, 30 Oct 2010 04:16:22 +0000

@simply fred: just know that jennings wI'll be ranked high.

By: simply fred

simply fred — Sat, 30 Oct 2010 04:10:35 +0000

@Stephen: Jennings on the scrap heap. Looking forward to the list!

By: Stephen

Stephen — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 16:03:07 +0000

@simply fred: That is always the best plan (SAGNOF). But I think Jennings will be overrated by the time the 2011 season rolls along. I will be targeting lesser prospects that provide similar upside.

By: simply fred

simply fred — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 06:53:35 +0000

@Stephen: Thanks for tip on AB's. Looks as if best play is to wait to snag him off waivers if one needs steals. Yeah, I was running up the site map and one of your older articles caught my eye. Thankful that you (posts) are there whenever a potential call up comes to the forefront!

By: Stephen

Stephen — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 04:12:26 +0000

@simply fred: Also, you had to do some might long and deep digging to find that Minor League Splits link. I don't think I used that since 2009. I have used Minor League Splits player pages before than however.

By: Stephen

Stephen — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 03:48:13 +0000

@simply fred: LINK as promised. RE: Jennings; The MLEs are basing their exact AB's to the major leagues. So if Jennings was playing full time in the minors, his MLEs would be assuming full time too. Jennings Pros: Talent, SAGNOF, Defense Jennings Cons: Lack of guaranteed PT; injury issues, all value is based in steals (see 2010 Alcides Escobar) and injuries in the past have been with wrist and hamstring.

By: simply fred

simply fred — Thu, 28 Oct 2010 17:46:44 +0000

@simply fred: For example:@simply fred: Desmond Jennings 2 seasons, 141 GS at AAA Durham: R/HR/RBI/AVG/SB 105/6/53/_/52 converts to TB 79/5/40/.245/40 I assume that's full time. Additional consideration: plus: his touted talent; probably more steals given current catching situations (inability to throw out runners) at NYA/BOS. minus: lack of guaranteed playing time. (you probably have a lot more!)

By: simply fred

simply fred — Thu, 28 Oct 2010 17:35:09 +0000

@Stephen: Cool, will look forward to the link. Am afraid to get too invested in young talent. Just looking for the occasional check point to add to the resume of a player. Thanks!

By: Stephen

Stephen — Thu, 28 Oct 2010 17:22:42 +0000

@simply fred: I honestly don't really use that tool. I probably should at least start to reference it more often though. It provides a formula for minor league stat lines to be changed into major league stat lines. To me, this is too robotic. It provides a great starting point of what to expect, but it isn't anywhere near perfect. I haven't studied it indepth enough to know if it fairly accurate. I probably could, and see what happens. Seems like a great Rudy project actually. I'll see what I can conjour up. Speaking of MLEs, when I get home from work, I'll link you to a page that has all the minor league players with their MLEs for 2010.

By: simply fred

simply fred — Thu, 28 Oct 2010 17:09:08 +0000

@Stephen: Hi, Stephen. I was running through an older post of yours and ran across this estimator (minor leagues to major):

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html

I had been trying to look at park factors, but this seems to combine several processes. Don’t expect it to be anywhere near perfect, but have you used it enough to get a feel for how good a job it does?

By: Stephen

Stephen — Thu, 28 Oct 2010 04:13:32 +0000

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_minor_league_park_multipliers/

I just stumbled upon this link tonight. Check out Visalia, they actually suppress home runs. Just food for thought. I’ll most likely be analyzing these numbers again in the spring of 2011.

By: Stephen

Stephen — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 16:50:38 +0000

@royce!: Agreed. Maybe knowing he was statistically unlucky will grant him the mental fortitude of Grey Albright. @Nando: Sim games don't mean he'll be free from a slow progression through rehab. Majors by mid-2011 would be the earliest though. You're correct to correct my thinking. Thank you.

By: Nando

Nando — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 14:58:46 +0000

Re: Parker, I assume that you meant he won’t be pitching in the *majors* until mid-2011 (likely at the earliest). He’s already been throwing sim games, and will probably start at AA next year. I suspect that if healthy, he’ll move quickly to AAA, and a call-up to the big club at some point is within reason.

By: royce!

royce! — Wed, 27 Oct 2010 14:22:27 +0000

Wow, Augustien’s numbers seem to be the universe’s attempt to balance out Enright’s luck. A 6.56 ERA and a 3.86 FIP, .385 BABIP, 58.2 LOB? A season like that can do some serious emotional damage. Hopefully he’s confident enough to avoid that damage. Yeesh.