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Dogging Aramis Ramirez as someone who’s overrated in 2010 fantasy baseball seems odd.  He was hurt last year and that was coming off two years when he was just a’ight.  And just a’ight is several levels removed from a’ight a’ight.  Just a’ight is not even the same as just a’ight.  On the scale of a’ight, there’s a’ight a’ight, a’ight, pretty a’ight, just a’ight.  Not to mention, we’re talking about a’ight here.  We’re not talking about him on the scale of totes crazy.  He hasn’t been totes crazy since 2006.  Back then, I could see throwing on some Aramis.  That shizz was Spanish Fly.  In 2006, he threw up a line of 93/38/119/.291/2.  Nice, next time I see 2005 I’ll tell him to keep an eye out for that.  This year I have Aramis down for 75/25/95/.290.  Adrian Beltre looks at those numbers and shrugs.  Don’t trust me and my mustache?  Bill James has him down for 76/26/97/.292; CHONE has 67/22/84/.289; Marcel has 59/18/72/.290.  Points Shares has him at 122th, earning -.26 points.  Sweet, throw him in a pot with some bell peppers and cumin and you have crap.

I know what a lot of you are thinking.  What the eff does totes crazy mean? Actually, I thought you were thinking Aramis will beat my projections this year because it’s a contract year.  Ah, yes.  The contract year theory.  For those not in the know, the contract year theory is when someone’s production peaks the year they are about to enter free agency, allowing them to cash in.  The first known example of the contract year theory was when Noah built the ark before signing a lifetime contract that produced nothing except odd texts about animal fornication.  It didn’t catch on in baseball for many years later.  In 1897, the Cleveland Spiders management gave a $50 raise to Sparky Anklebiter after a massive 3 HR season only to see him drop to 0 HRs the next year.  I wish someone would flip the script on players who play well in their contract year.  I’d love to hear a negotiation go something like this, “For you to be so much better in your contract year, it means you were sandbagging it for the previous three years.  Yeah, we want someone who sandbags it.  We’re going to sign Jack Wilson instead.  He throws well.”  Okay, now for actual examples of contract year players from last year:  Beltre (8 homers and crizzap), Rick Ankiel (lots of strikeouts, ugly bout with an outfield wall), Erik Bedard (usual injury shizz), Khalil Greene (ended up in the psyche ward), Rich Harden (see Bedard), Brett Myers (bunch of hits off him, some thrown at his wife) and Xavier Nady (season ended April 14th).  Yay, contract year theory.  That shizz is foolproof.

Aramis Ramirez is currently being drafted on average around 60th.  That’s about 3 rounds too early.  He’s overrated.  Grey out.

  1. Fman99 says:
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    A-Ram-Ram killed me in 2009. Not this year.

  2. 101 MPH says:
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    The only 4 3rd baseman that I can stomach the thought of owning this year:

    1) A -Rod (actually, I can barely stomach the thought of that arse being on my roster, but I can’t dispute the production);
    2) Evan Longoria;
    3) Ryan Zimmerman; and
    4) Kevin Youkilis

    (Honorable mention to Michael Young if you have Ryan Howard at first)

    Tragically (well, relatively speaking), Longoria and Zimmerman are being kept in my league.

    David Wright’s statistical nose-dive leaves too many questions for me to bid with any confidence.

    What does all this mean? Aramis Ramirez has the markings of a Blairing mistake (but not my mistake).

  3. Malarky says:
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    C’mon Grey, you’re definitely being too hard on the guy and because you are down on AramRam this year you are using conservative numbers. If we add just 5 points on him, across the board, you have a 80/30/100/.295 line (and that’s just adding five points! Numbers he’s perfectly capable of when healthy). Aramis’ issue is health, and I understand that depresses his value, but when healthy he is one of the more consistent and reliable hitters. Consider the following three players:

    105/30/110/.295/5
    95/27/105/.295/5
    85/35/95/.250/12

    Those are your predictions for Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Youkilis, and Mark Reynold’s respectively, which you have them all ranked considerably higher than Aramis, Reynold’s in particular in the top 20. Those numbers are not far off, and considering how thin 3B is this year, health concerns aside (I mean you got Jose Reyes in the top 20!) I think you are being too hard on him.

    Anyhow, love the site (I just couldn’t let this one slide), keep up the good work.

  4. 101 MPH says:
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    Oh yeah. I forgot about Mark Reynolds and Pablo Sandoval, but they’re being kept as well.

    No wonder some poor bugger reached for Aramis Ramirez….

  5. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @101 MPH: I’m kinda hoping I just have Longoria on every team and can ignore this position.

    @Malarky: Thanks for the kind words! Actually Reynolds isn’t top 20, he was just mentioned in that post as someone who is not in the top 20 even though I’ve seen in drafted there. Sorry for that confusion. Your opinion isn’t without merit, it’s just I’m sick of hearing year after year how Aramis is a 30 homer guy. He hasn’t been a few years now.

  6. brett says:
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    @101 MPH: I’m with you. I’d add Mark Reynolds to the list if he falls to the late third/early fourth, but i’ll probably have my 3B locked up by that point in one of the guys you mentioned. If all else fails, i’m taking a flyer on Beckham and Chris Davis and hoping one of them doesn’t suck.

  7. Malarky says:
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    Yeah, I see what you’re saying, but he hit 26 & 27 HR’s in 2006 & 2007 respectively, and he hit 15 last yr in 306 AB’s. But also consider these 2009 splits:

    .292/.364/.525/.888
    .281/.364/.526/.889
    .317/.389/.516/.905

    The first two in order are, Zimmerman and Longoria. The last being AramRam. I understand Longo has lots of upside and potential, as does Zim, but one is going early in rd 2 (and in some cases rd 1) and the other is going around rd 3-4. There HAS to be value in getting AramRam around rd 6-7, around where he’s going now. Those numbers sure beat Figgins and Young who are going around where you are suggesting AramRam should go. Regardless, I don’t want to get into a back and forth here, but I don’t think he deserves a Schmohawk label here, ” Cust Kayin’! “

  8. Asdrubal Bastardo says:
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    “Sparky Anklebiter” hahaha great Razzball term! That exemplifies Pedroia, I think alot of teams found that out last year when he was being taken in the 2nd round for his “toughness, grit, and 15 HRs”

  9. Mikey boy324 says:
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    Aram never got surgery on his shoulder so the same thing can happen at anytime Unless he really falls I rather not take the risk

  10. Dave says:
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    Thanks for working in the line on where you think he should be drafted. I appreciate that.

  11. finite24 says:
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    contract year used to be an excellent predictor of steriod use (Manny, Beltre are two examples).

  12. Charlie says:
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    Since I’ve seen you reference the Replacements before…I had an idea for a glossary term for players like AnRam or, more suitably, Ichiro: Waitress In The Sky. You think they’re hot stuff at first, but really they’re just like their counterparts but go a bit higher up. Think about it: Sanitation Expert and a Maintenance Engineer; a garbage man, a janitor, and Juan Pierre my dear.

  13. Steve says:
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    Grey – are you saying you wouldn’t draft him under any circumstances? If he’s there in the 8th round or so, would you look at him?

    Or are you more likely to be looking at Beckam, Stewart etc by then?

    Re: Longoria. You’ve ranked him 11th. Are you taking him there, assuming no one you have ranked higher is available?

  14. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Dave: No problem.

    @finite24: That’s an interesting theory that I haven’t heard before but does seem obvious.

    @Charlie: That’s not bad, but read more esoteric as opposed to funny.

  15. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I don’t see me taking Aramis where he’s going. Would I take him around 95th overall? Probably, but depends how my team was looking at that point. More likely, I’m looking at Beckham and Stewart around the 95th pick. Longoria I’m taking at the end of the first round. He’s not jumping above Howard or Fielder. I punted 3rd base last year and it turned out fine, I’m not worried. Take what the draft gives you, ya know?

    EDIT: Number.

  16. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Word.

  17. Steve says:
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    @Grey: And by ‘word’, I mean, right on, bro.

  18. sean says:
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    Just wanted to let you know that I really enjoyed the tone of this post.

    The guy who drafts Aramis is the same guy who wants to know who’ll have the best 2010 out of Alfonso Soriano, Atkins, Helton, Dye, Konerko, and Giambi. This is the same guy who still pegs his pants and wears Champion sweatshirts on Fridays.

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: Ha! On Fridays and at Friday’s.

  20. frank rizzo says:
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    I’ve got to agree with Malarky here. I understand that Aramis is not a 30 HR guy anymore, and injuries have happened….however, if I’m able to get him in the 6th/7th, I’m all over it. In my opinion, you need to get something out of the 3b position. I have a real problem with punting that position. Aramis will get you solid BA, and big RBI numbers this year. That goes a long way for me because if you get a stud 1b like Howard, and wait on a 2b for Stewart, plus getting athletic (and speedy) OF’s, a guy like Aramis can really help you balance your roster out (raise BA, add RBI’s). There’s a place for Aramis…..and I believe that place is before the 8th/9th round. Besides, you won’t be seeing him that late anyway.

  21. I am ready to put all your information together now THE MASTERPIECE – and put together my rankings – I mean your rankings-Hope you bring us a championship team – thanks for all your work – not bad for one nights work for you

  22. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @frank rizzo: I will say average and RBIs is where Aramis tends to excel. RBIs and average are also two of the hardest categories to predict.

    @mrbaseball: Hehe… Yeah, one long night.

  23. Tony says:
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    @Malarky: @frank rizzo: I think you guys are grossly over estimating Aramis staying healthy. He turns 32 in JUNE. He missed 8o games last year, 13, 30, 39, and 17 in 4 of the 5 prior years, always dinged up or more with something. I think Greys line he’s giving is about a max out line for the guy. His whole year is based on staying healthy, if you have another option…. TAKE IT.

    @Grey: Your Schmohawk list has basically been right on with my DO NOT DRAFT LIST so far. You call em schmoHAWKS and only take them if they’re at the right spot, I say avoid the bums and go a different route…. ANYONE can get hurt, even a 21 year old, but a guy who’s been injured before… not a good mix. I just cross them off my list. Injury Prone guys and guys that I think are just going way to early (cough cough) REYNOLDS…. I just cross em off, its like they dont exist in my draft… i might miss out on a stud, but more than likely i’m just avoiding something that in the back of my mind i know is coming!

    My injury prone guys i avoid or guys i just see taking a NOSE DIVE and NOT earning their ADP: Obviously aramis, REYES (i need to see him swipe home in spring training to take him), REYNOLDS (avg can bottom out, you mentioned this alot grey), Mauer (catcher, injury risk in my eyes, and wont perform up to 09 level), I never find myself taking Kinsler?, Ellsbury, Carl Crawford… all speed, not worth the ADP, JOHAN (not believing this guy is coming back to old JOHAN, very sad, but give him a healthy team? who knows), BAY (dont trust the knees), Carp (got one miracle year, idk about another), Beltran (even with an ADP of 88 at MDC no way…. hmmm I could take Beltran or Jay Bruce? or Adam Jones? Cargo soon after… PASS……

    For me there’s really no place I take these guys. UNLESS… ex: 2009 cano was kind of a guy i didn’t target, wasn’t even remotely thinking about taking but somehow he fell to the 13th round? Well thats just stupid, everyone in my league shoulda got a switch from the willlow tree and been given some lashes for that…. then i take them…. otherwise, 2 rounds past ADP yada yada yada…. i’m passing, i try and keep my team as healthy as possible, i dont need to start with old, crotchety guys who I’m “HOPING” put together ONE LAST YEAR FOR ME….

  24. Tony says:
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    WOW- i hit submit and looked at that novel and didn’t know it was that big! hahahaha…. for anyone who reads it you’re a good man (or lady for the two female readers). Hopefully i make some sense!

  25. hey grey – 14 team draft – if you got the 14th spot and all broke well – who would you take with your 14th and 15th pick – figure that the other 13 are on top of things and will not hand out an early christmas gift here – hey every one here is allowed to answer this one

    I would hope that I could get Prince Fielder and Evan Longoria – I would never take a pitcher – plenty of wins and K’s later on

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: Nice rant. Willow tree – ha! Are you drunk already? (2) Ladies and gentlemen, he’s a teacher!

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @mrbaseball: Fielder and Longoria or Howard and Longoria would be ideal. Probably won’t work out that way. I’d hope for Longoria and Kinsler. Or Longoria and Holliday.

  28. GasTheObese says:
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    Aramis or Chipper (who I pity draft all the time in the 11th in mocks nowadays) ? Would you gamble on one of them over say Michael Young, whose ceiling is probably the aforementioned pair’s basement? I’ll split the adp’s of the two and get Beckham or Stewart, or punt for a Glaus last round. I don’t have that much faith in any name up there really after ARod/Longoria.

  29. Tony says:
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    @Grey: i’m ONLY on beer two and heading to “the bee’s” for some cocktails and dinner, haha…. YES I AM A TEACHER! Teachers drink, wow do they drink!

    @mrbaseball: Ya man i’m with grey, NO WAY you see a combo of FIELDER and LONGO, i’m hoping for that on the turn in my 12 teamer…. I dont even think you see LONGO come that far…. you really think he would grey? 14 teams if they’re on top of things they’re snatching up the 3B NOW…. who knows tho, mauer and Lince go fast and you’re alright…. i’d look for TULO for sure in that league. If Longo/TULO came to you it sounds rough, but I think it could be a great base, SS/3B filled, moving on….

  30. Tony says:
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    @Grey: and i am from ohio, yes willow tree….

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GasTheObese: Pity draft – ha! I’ll be looking at Stewart and Bekcham. For his ADP, Chipper’s actually not terrible.

    @Tony: Not sure if Longoria will be there, I’d hope so. People might feel the 3rd base crunch and end up taking him even earlier.

  32. Kid n' Play says:
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    Grey, this is your best fantasy shmohawk post so far… I have been saying this guy is overrated for years but someone always drafts him way too early and get’s a big disappointment.

    You bring up a good topic for a post on its own too… Have you ever thought of a post just about the guys that are hitting their free agency year? I think that may need it’s own little section, much like the fantasy schmohawks.

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Kid n’ Play: Thanks…. Yeah, I’ll probably cover them at some point.

  34. Tony says:
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    @Grey: ya at 14 i doubt longo is there either….

    and you can add chipper to my DO NOT DRAFT LIST….

    and THE BEE’s was great…. back to cheap beer.

  35. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Tony: Thank Tony for braving the message. These are the injury guys from my Risky Hitters post for 2010:

    Akinori Iwamura
    Alex Gordon
    Aramis Ramirez
    Bobby Crosby
    Carlos Beltran
    Carlos Gomez
    Edwin Encarnacion
    Fred Lewis
    Geovany Soto
    Jose Guillen
    Jose Reyes
    Josh Hamilton
    Ramon Hernandez
    currently DL’d:
    Carlos Delgado
    Rickie Weeks
    Brian Giles
    Carlos Quentin

    The measured results of the 2009 list indicate that a player from this list has a four-in-five chance of getting roughly 50% of what the player produced before last year’s drop.

  36. Kid n' Play says:
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    Grey, I am sure I am not the only one thinking this…. I have been wondering this for over a year now… Is that your real picture or is that an alter personality…

  37. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: Henry Shulman, Giants twitter: “Bumgarner goes to camp A’s the fifth starter.”

    You taking the over/under your predictions if he breaks camp?

  38. Tony says:
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    @Simply Fred: hey what do ya know fred mosta my guys are on there! HA!

    Basically i avoid old guys, guys with injury pasts or coming off big injuries, and I avoid girls with herpes…

    wait that has nothing to do with fantasy baseball… yet its good advice.
    wait i’m married, ffff….

    wait i’ve had like 13 beers…. yes my spelling is good, kind of, i proofread!

    can i draft now…..

  39. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Tony: Tony, you are simply on TOP of the FANTASY WORLD! You may draft at will.

  40. Tony says:
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    @Simply Fred: haha i like to think…. hopefully after like 40 mocks (that might be shorting myself a few) and reading razzball + many other sites daily i know my stuff…

    your risky hitters post was more than i could register tho! good work, but i can look at a guy, his age, his past couple yrs, and decide on him almost…

    I feel i know too much about baseball, its kinda sick, my head may explode someday, if i dont post for more than a week, i either A) went on vacation and didn’t tell anyone or B) my head exploded…

    grey, fred, rudy, and many others…. good job, this is one hell of a site, no other gets the posts this one does…. love the debates, i feel i’m pretty edgey and love the debates…. keep it up, i’m gonna go pass out now.

  41. brett says:
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    @Tony: @Simply Fred: You guys are the class of amateur fantasy baseball. I’d be honored to get stuck in a Commenter’s League with both of you. And i’m not even drunk.

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Simply Fred: Chance to get roofied. Low 4 ERA, 7.5 K/9, hiccups… Definitely worth a flier to see if he can surprise.

    @Kid n’ Play: That’s the picture on my birth certificate.

    @Tony: Thanks, man. Appreciate it.

  43. Kid n' Play says:
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    ahaha! there are no pictures on birth certificates… but I bet they made a spot for you.

    I grew out a mustache once an everyone called me the pornmaster…

    Grey, are you from the east coast? I always see subtle cues but the timestamps suggest this is strictly westcoast now…

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Kid n’ Play: I’m in LA and I’m prepping the post for tomorrow. Just finished watching the Lost season premiere.

  45. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @brett: You are in the class with Tony; I’m striving to inch my way in that direction. Agree would be honored as well; I’d let you guys put me in my place. Not sure how RCLs get organized. ?? (would there be room for teacher’s pet, Steve?)

  46. Kid n' Play says:
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    Grey, my keeper league is deep. The only posision player I need is SS…. I pretty much have my pickin’s. Who would you take in this format? 6 keeps – 7X7 – avg, obp, slg, hr, r, rbi, sb… I already have Utley, Fielder, Reynolds, Werth, Markakis, C. Gonzalez…

    SS available are andrus, al ram, drew, asdrew, esco, etc… Tough pickins, I know. But as yuo can see the power hitters mean more so who do you take?

    Or would you say screw it and go for pitching (which I now do not have). Available are Hamels (probably wont slip), Peavy (too much risk), Bills (I hope slips to me) Baker, etc, etc…

    Im lost at my first pick.

  47. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Big-O: We’re good. I had a colonoscopy today. Wasn’t seeing the humor in many things.

  48. Kid n' Play says:
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    I’m a Boston Kid. 27. You have me hooked. appreesh.

  49. Kid n' Play says:
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    @ Simply Fred: Hope you are clensed and have an open mind now! HAHA!

  50. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Kid n’ Play: So this would be around the 7th round? I’d take Hamels or Bills, in that order.

  51. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Kid n’ Play: You KNOW I am cleansed. Routine. Ready for pitchers and catchers!

  52. Howie says:
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    @Grey: So the other set of Aram’s projections closest to yours is Bill James’… I always hear how inaccurate his projections are compared to the myriad offerings (surprising given his demigod status with respect to the sport and stats…I guess his Ouija board was manufactured by Toyota).

    My question for you is: besides your own efforts… if one could only use one other set of projections… do you recommend going with those output by Mr. James?

  53. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Howie: Marcel is supposed to be generally the best and also the simplest. Chone’s good… I mean they’re all with sniffing distance of each other.

  54. brett says:
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    @Simply Fred: Absolutely. There are several of you i’d love to do battle with. Was avoiding naming names because i’d obviously forget someone.

    Anyway, should be a fun season. I’m stoked.

  55. Steve says:
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    @Grey: This just in – USA wins its section of the international seven a side rugby tournament being held here this weekend.
    I know you were waiting to hear.

  56. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Howie: Overall, Grey and James are very similar. CHONE is about -10% below them, and more eratic. In my estimation, CHONE is by far the least favorable with regard to projecting 5X5 roto.

  57. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Howie: Example, for Grey’s first mock, Grey’s projections and James’ both place him #2 in that 12-teamer. CHONE places him #7.

  58. really the real Tom, for real says:
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    Grey, You got me all confused with this post, would you keep Aramis or Kendry in a H2H league that counts OPS? They would be playing in my utility spot. AAAGGGHHHH
    I remember when fantasy wasn’t so hard. Then you have a little success and it is like The Horse, you just keep wanting more. Not to get high again but to maintain!!!!!

  59. which position did you find the weakest and toughest to fill when you did your mock drafts this year – and which position can someone hold out the longest on to fill – Catcher is not included here – Its my field goal kicker

  60. Tony says:
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    @Simply Fred: @brett: i was in an RCL league last year, not sure if we’re supposed to stick with the same league? doesn’t matter? I’d be excited to actually play anyone on this message board… I do know one thing when you’re going thru a draft and everyone is using the same advice, it gets tough drafting!

    I dont know how you guys roll but we chipped in $50 each last year. I like to play for something (although taco bell coupons are awesome). LOL.

    I think i finished 5th last year in my RCL league, but it was my first time playing roto ever, it was a learning experience. Different but fun in new way. I didn’t even know about the max/pace button until it was basically too late, ha! I plan to finish top 4 this year maybe better…!

    Its good to have goals!

  61. Tony says:
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    @mrbaseball: I thnk SS is the toughest and 3B is a close 2nd….

    If you dont get Hanley or TULO the options thin fast and seem to be a bunch of names I dont find myself liking to draft (rollins, jeter, etc) and all the late options are Speedsters who haven’t proven anything really….

    3B is a little deeper than SS but not much, and mainly I want someone from Sandoval up…. so you have to have that before you leave the 3rd or 4th round for sure…

    I love Braun and Kemp, but i’ve found when i take a Top OF’er with my first pick i’m scrambling filling other positions later.

  62. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: Care to throw out a line for O.Cabrera? MLBDEPTHCHARTS has him slotted in the 2-hole. Know he’s old, but in GABP? –something similar to Crapolanco?

  63. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Tony: Concur with the $50. Let’s talk when RCL opens up.

  64. Greg says:
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    Grey, since A-Ram is one of my keepers, I hope you’re wrong about him for 2010. Really I think it just comes down to whether he stays healthy or not. That being said, I’m certainly less confident about him going into 2010 than I was going into 2009.

  65. Tony says:
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    @Simply Fred: sounds good fred…. my league last year was a pretty good group, but i’ll switch it up, i really had no tie to the league, just jumped in one….

    $50 is a good amount, not too much, but makes it worth playing, and isn’t breaking anyones month, or lets hope $50 doesn’t break the bank…

    As long as whoever holds it is honest and pays it all out at the end i’m good.

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