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If this were a Meatloaf song, the title, “Andrew McCutchen, 2017 Fantasy Schmohawk,” would have this “Betting Against The Bounce Back” in parenthesis.  Some overrated posts are preordained by the man above, some posts are preordained by the men below.  This post is for the men below.  Those men are the ones in the comments touting how great Andrew McCutchen still is.  I think people get confused by fantasy in the most general sense.  I don’t dislike guys personally (okay, Daniel Murphy is the exception that proves the rule).  McCutchen seems like a great guy.  I’d buy him a beer if I ever saw him.  Of course, the beer would get returned to me with the note, “McCutchen only drinks Glenfiddich.  He is Scottish, after all.”  In real life, I want him to have a long and productive life.  May his walks on the beach be accompanied by a loved one and some crutches.  For fantasy, I want McCutchen to fail miserably.  I want his bounce back to go about as well as the yodeller’s on The Price is Right when the contestant is more than $25 over the actual retail price.  Anyway, why is Andrew McCutchen overrated for 2017 fantasy baseball?

Well, he’s overrated because people expect a bounce back, so let’s look at what he did last year, which wasn’t good, and see how he’s trending this year.  His stat line last year:  81/24/79/.256/6.  OBP (.336) and SLG (.430) were miserable too, on par with J.T. Realmuto and Brandon Crawford.  Lowercase yay.  But, of course, this is about what he can do this year and not how dreckful he was last year.  Dreckful is a word, don’t Google it.  He swung at more pitches outside the strike zone (25.4%) and inside the strike zone (71.4%) than the previous year.  He also made more contact (76.8%) and saw more pitches inside the strike zone.  Essentially, he was swinging at good and bad pitches and pitchers were challenging him more.  I.e., “We don’t need no stinkin’ base on balls with McCutchen.”  I.e. added, “Now eat a D.”  His hard contact percentage was 35.8%, his lowest since he became a star, and his soft contact hit rate was 19.7%, the highest percentage in his career.  Not great, but, wait, it gets worse!  He pulled 44.8% of pitches.  So, he could muscle them out still, right?  Well, sorta.  His homers last year only went 395 feet on average, which is not good.  He had ten homers that were of the Just Enough variety.  Chris Carter had ten homers that were Just Enoughs, but Chris Carter hit 41 homers!  24 homers total and ten of them were lucky?  McCutchen has a few deep flies come up just short this year and he’s suddenly an 18 homer guy.  The steals?  They’ve been gone.  McClutchin’ His Knee stole six bags last year and was caught seven times.  It’s admirable that he seems to play through injury, but it’s costing him production.  He only hit .256 last year, and maybe that comes up a tad if his BABIP rebounds (it was .297 last year and he’s regularly been a .330 BABIP guy), but hitting the ball softer and not running as well are not two things that make a BABIP go up.  I like his lineup with Josh Bell in front of him and Marte behind him, but Bell is no guarantee and Marte doesn’t exactly drive guys in.  Marte is really a number two hole hitter that C**nt Hurdle has dressed up like a cleanup hitter.  Not sure what bathroom that means he should use either.  Listen (read), I like McCutchen and he seems like a nice chap that wears kilts to formal functions, but I would not draft him, unless ‘Enjoys Bagpipes’ was a category in my league.

 
  1. Choi Boy says:
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    Hey Grey,

    Question for you.
    16 Team H2H 5×5 Keep 10 (Forever)

    My 10 keepers are
    Trout / Trea Turner / Trevor Story / Ian Kinsler / Adrian Beltre / JD Martinez / Matt Kemp / Carlos Santana / Stephen Strasburg / Zack Greinke

    Question is that I have the first pick overall and there are several interesting players in the FA pool.

    Should I go for a SP to shore up the rotation like – Kevin Gausman, Aaron Nola, Rich Hill, Joe Ross?

    Or there is Kenley Jansen who was surprisingly not kept by the owner last season.

    Or should I go for high upside prospects like Cody Bellinger, Austin Meadows, or Kopech? (I’m thinking they might slide a few rounds but I do want to stash a few prospects too)

    Thanks in advance Grey!!!!

    • Cram It says:
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      @Choi Boy: Get a starter, use the rankings.

  2. Mrs. Featherbottom says:
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    NICE! If there was a Meatloaf song called, “Chris Christie ate some meatloaf”, “Trump made him order it” would be in parenthesis.
    Definitely nominating McCutch at the top of my auction drafts this year. No interest in the guy,

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mrs. Featherbottom: Haha… Meatloaf song parenthesis are fun! How about: “I Love You (So My Bad About Leaving You In The Walgreen’s Parking Lot)”

  3. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    You said it – particularly when you could go get Polanco around the same time as him. The Story No One Is Talking About? Cutch’s pre and post dreadlock stats. He’s a swashbuckling Samson!

    In only-relevant-to-my-team news, I was offered a $6 Correa for my $28 Betts in a keep 7 root league, $3 inflation/yr.

    My other keepers are Rizzo (33), Desmond (9), Story (11), Dahl (10), Moncada (3), Yu (18).

    Thanks!

  4. Ante Galic says:
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    Grey!

    Great write-up.

    a, Had McCutchen last year so please don’t remind how badly he played! To wit, even worse, I only had him for 16 of his 24 homers. [Dreadful] cubed!

    b. Started watching…http://www.imdb.com/title/tt6438096/… and can’t wait to watch the following HBO offers….

    ….http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3510820/….

    ….http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112681/….

    You are the Warren Buffet of fantasy, watch the doc and you’ll understand. If only fantasy could be a little better monetized!

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante Galic: A. Ouch B. Buffet movie was solid, I’m the Buffet of fantasy b/c I only eat McDonald’s for breakfast?

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        @Grey: Grey!

        a. LOL!! Because you read and scour Moody’s reference book from the 1950s in identifying the best prices available for fantasy!

        b. Just sensible advice on how to win fantasy.

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          A. Because I drive myself to work even though I could afford to be driven in a Bentley by the 2nd richest man in the world? B. That’s me!

          • Ante GALIC says:
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            @Grey: Grey!

            a. See you tomorrow, man.

            b. Been putting my John Rambo quotes together. Have about 3 weeks worth ready to go starting the first Monday of the season aka April 3. Really looking forward to it.

            Cheers,
            Ante

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Nice!

  5. Knuckle Shufflers says:
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    Hi Grey,

    I’m in a 12 team, 6 x 6, H2H Yahoo keeper league with OPS and K/BB as the added cats.

    We get to keep 10 players. Who would you keep from? :

    Will Myers
    Chris Davis
    Gary Sanchez
    Khris Davis
    Hosmer
    Piscotty
    Grandal
    Tim Anderson
    Curtis Granderson
    Josh Reddick
    D. Santana

    Syndergaard
    Kluber
    Carrasco
    Cole
    Duffy
    McCullers
    J.Familia
    AJ Ramos
    Tyson Ross
    Sam Dyson
    Addison Reed
    Jose Berrios

    Looking forward to your coverage of the season again this year. Thanks heaps!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Knuckle Shufflers: Thanks!

      Syndergaard
      Kluber
      Carrasco
      Will Myers
      Chris Davis
      Gary Sanchez
      Khris Davis
      Hosmer
      Piscotty
      Duffy

  6. Chris C. says:
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    Grey,

    Yoan Moncada or Andrew Benintendi as a keeper for this year and beyond…

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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      @Chris C.: Benintendi

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Chris C.:
      agree with F

  7. JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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    20 Team Dynasty H2H OBP. instead of avg.
    C.
    1b. Rizzo
    2b.
    3b.
    IF.
    LF. S.Marte
    CF.
    RF. J.D. Martinez
    OF. M.Kepler
    Util.

    P. K.Maeda
    P. D.Duffy
    P. J.deGrom
    P. D.Salazar
    P.
    P.
    P.
    RP.
    RP.
    RP.
    Figured you’d like seeing both Duffy and Maeda…Im about 6 spots away from picking (167)..Planning on J.Turner as i need to get some infield bats…only other way could see going would be to grab a closer but 3b. would be my choice…After Turner, Healy would be my next best option

    • Tweak says:
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      @JeF WiTh 1 F: Depending on what is available, I might take an MI or OF depth piece here and wait for Healy. I’d prefer Healy to Turner in Dynasty, though he probably will only qualify at 3B for this season alone. What are your other 3B options afterward?

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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        @Tweak: The guys available at 2nd and short aren’t worth the draft slot here…I do like Healy as well but im looking to win this year and Turner gives me the safer pick there.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @JeF WiTh 1 F: I thought we were going Santana and Duffy or Maeda… You better grab a 3B

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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        @Grey: Santana got taken right before i grabbed Duffy…so that round i went Duffy/Kepler

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ah, gotcha

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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        @Grey: This round is now Maeda/J.Turner

        • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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          @JeF WiTh 1 F:
          20 Team Dynasty H2H OBP. instead of avg.
          C.
          1b. Rizzo
          2b.
          3b. J.Turner
          SS.
          IF.
          LF. S.Marte
          CF.
          RF. J.D. Martinez
          OF. M.Kepler
          Util.

          P. K.Maeda
          P. D.Duffy
          P. J.deGrom
          P. D.Salazar
          P.
          P.
          P.
          RP.
          RP.
          RP.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Looks better already

            • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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              @Grey: Yeah cant complain for a 20 teamer..not in bad shape

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Looks good, gotta go bat again and closer

                • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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                  @Grey: Thats what im thinking…Semien, Pedroia or K.Broxton would most likely be the bats i’d be looking at that make sense for me there…than best available closer would be next

                  • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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                    @JeF WiTh 1 F:
                    If Healy is still around could go with him for the IF spot as well but im thinking Semien first

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Semien or Broxton and closer

                    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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                      @Grey: Yeah its nice hearing the brewers would like to bat Broxton 2nd

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yeah, hurts Arcia’s value

  8. Mobin Can't Hack It says:
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    i’m actually surprised (and i own him in one 13 team dynasty with OPS) his OPS was that high.

  9. JohnnyBeGood says:
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    Morning Grey! Which keeper you like best:
    – Cueto in 5th or Sano in 16th (6×6 h2h league )

    Thanks bud

  10. Cheese says:
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    10 tm keep forever league

    Would you trade either Segura or Villar for Kluber?

    My other SP include DeGrom, Carassco, Gausman, Taillon, and Matz.

    Owner also has Sale and has made him available (for someone better than the aforementioned MIs).

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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      @Cheese: I’d move Segura for him

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Cheese:
      agree with F

  11. Leon says:
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    18 man keeper league. All of the top 20 sps are taken. Inhave 5 hitters, no sp. Il be drafting in the 6th rd. Who would you be looking for your top 2 sp. would you draft an sp or a top tier closer. Its a tough situation. Or contjnue drafting bats. Santana correa odor buxton polanco. Or try to push polanco for a sp like cueto/arrieta.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Leon: SP, use rankings

      • leon says:
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        @Cram It:
        Yea, but most of the time you get your self an Ace in the back end of the top 20.
        Here. Il be left with risky Sps. Mcculers, Nola, Hill, lackey, gausman, jon gray, taijuan walker, hamels, stroman, velasquez. All sp2. few more risky then others. I wasn’t sure if I should make sure I get a betance type player or some sort of strategy, Since it is 18 teams

        • Cram It says:
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          @leon: I don’t know who’s available, but whoever is, you should use Grey’s rankings and get one quick.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Leon: Also, not a tough situation. It’s like every draft situation.

    • peacecoast says:
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      @Leon: I am in the same boat in a 12T mixed league. I think by round 6 I might be looking at Maeda as my first SP. Then maybe Salazar.

      • Leon says:
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        @peacecoast: i wish salazar and maeda are options.

      • Cram It says:
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        @peacecoast: That’s fine but it sounds like this is an 18 teamer and your options are scarcer. So jump on it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Leon: Agree w/ Cram

  12. Mordacious Levator says:
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    as far as the “admirable” to play through injuries, in baseball, well, it just isn’t. if a guy actually is playing to get or keep a job it at least makes sense. but with pitchers they generally ALWAYS are hurting the team and themselves by playing with/through anything. and with superstar players (i use that term to indicate their large guaranteed money contracts) that are hitters it is only hurting them and their team to play with something. this certainly wouldn’t apply in football where almost none of the players’ contracts are guaranteed and the shelf life of almost any player makes it such that they all pretty much are playing for their jobs at all times.

  13. Mr Baseball says:
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    Grey looking for a plan here – I am entering a long term money dynasty league

    these are the settings – H2H – 20 teams I draft 13

    Roster Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, OF, Util, SP, RP, P, P, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL, NA, NA

    Batters Stat Categories: Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), On-base Percentage (OBP), Slugging Percentage (SLG)

    Pitchers Stat Categories: Saves (SV), Strikeouts (K), Holds (HLD), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP), Quality Starts (QS)

    What round should I start looking for starting pitching – what round should I look for relief pitching and should I always take the best player or for instance – if its between a shortstop and outfielder and the outfielder numbers are better not by much should I look into drafting the weaker manpower position first

    since we do not have average any players you would move up the list on draft day

    • Mr Baseball says:
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      JeF WiTh 1 F looks like you are doing almost the same type of draft

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mr Baseball: I usually draft a SP around pick 50-60 regardless of league, so likely 3rd round — Draft the best players early, obviously don’t draft something daft like two shortstops in first 2 rounds

  14. Jvanslyke says:
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    Damn, Grey. I agree with everything you said but being a Pirate fan who has owned McCutchen for numerous years it makes me feel old and sad to see the drop. Even more sad, I was hoping to see him traded this season so we could get a taste of the Marte/Polanco/Meadows OF which IMO would rival the great Van Slyke/Bonds/RJ Reynolds group of ’88. Those were good days for the city of Pittsburgh, Mr Belvedere was putting out classic episode after classic episode, the Pirates were up and coming & the Steelers were about insert Bubby Brister into a starting role.

    My standard 10 team ROTO draft is still a few weeks out yet I’m experiencing sleepless nights. I have the #2 pick so following your plan would land me Goldie in the first. I have Odor as a keepe in the 4th. My guess at best available for Rd 2 is Springer and coming back for Rd 3 would be Story. I like that team but will my AVG be too much of an uphill climb? The other combination I’ve been pondering is Betts in Rd 1, Freeman in Rd 2 and Story Rd 3. Which group do you prefer. Which foursome do you prefer:
    Goldie-Springer-Story-Odor

    OR

    Betts-Freeman-Story-Odor

    Finally, did you hear the new Brother Ali song? If so, what’d you think?

    THANKS for everything, can’t wait for the daily notes to start!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jvanslyke: Yup, it does suck… You know commenetr, Dr. Kenneth Noisewater lives in Pittsburgh…. Goldie/Springer — Nope, what song?

  15. Clint says:
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    I’ve been trying to read between the tea leaves on this McCutchen thing as it relates to Austin Meadows. The way I see it, they have all but said they’re gonna deal him, meaning Meadows should be worthy of a minor slot stash even in 12 teamers, no? Or would you avoid it since it could be a wasted stash?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Clint: Redraft leagues? Meadows is iffy in 12 team leagues, he’ll be on waivers in 95% of 12 teamers until he’s called up

  16. Chud says:
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    0 for 3 so far with schmohawks on my team this year! Nice….

    Need some advice on 10 team full salary keeper trade question:

    I give Cano ($38)/Castellanos ($14)/ Starlin Castro ($18)

    I get Dozier ($13)/Lackey ($12)/Salvador Perez ($17)

    Thanks!

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Chud:
      Dozier side

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Chud: Agree w/ MP

  17. Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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    You shut your mouth when you’re talking to me. There’s an old fable that details the story of a man who jumped in the Monongahela River as Nate McLouth and emerged out of the Ohio River as THE savior of Pittsburgh baseball….Andrew McCutchen. Rummor has it he pisses Irahn City and shits Primanti sandwiches.

    Oh…I hope he gets traded for some young talent before this collapse continues beyond what’s salvageable.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Dr. Kenneth Noisewater: HA, nice fable… Nate McLouth made that story up to save face… I just mentioned you above…

      • Dr. Kenneth Noisewater says:
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        @Grey: McLouth couldn’t save face if his name was Castor Troy. I think Cutch will actually be better than last year but that ADP is still rubbish.

        Any new kicks? You scratch that itch yet?

  18. Damon says:
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    Here are McCutchen’s draft and projection stats:

    ADP is 59 (55 Yahoo and CBS, 69 NFBC). 56th on ESPN predraft default rankings.

    Steamer has him 38th in a 12 team espn with projections of 84-22-82-7 .282 in 547 AB.

    Consensus projections are 84-23-85-9 .281 in 546 AB and are fairly consistent from projection to projection. Grey’s was also similar with 87-21-90-7 but a lower avg at .263.

    • Damon says:
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      @Damon:

      So far in RCL leagues he has gone 52, 54, 56, 57, 58.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Damon: Top 60 is high

  19. Joey says:
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    Hey Grey. Thanks for the great post. I think the Schmohawk series is your best work every year.

    I need some help with a trade in my 12t, h2h dynasty league. Trading my Archer for his Polanco.
    Would you do:

    1. Polanco/3rd rd pick for Archer/5th rd pick

    or

    2. Polanco/McCullers for Archer/Albies

    Thanks!

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Joey:
      2

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
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      @Joey: 2

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Joey: Agree w/ others

  20. Lance

    Lance says:
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    Harper > Betts for 2017.

    Call me crazy.

    Personal OF ranks going up tonight.

    Love me some bold-ness.

    Good stuff Grey.

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      @Lance:
      Harper

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Lance: Thanks! If you have 3rd pick, you’re taking Harper?

  21. Eric says:
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    Hey Grey! Thanks for all the great work this offseason.

    Wondering if you’re at all worried about Story potentially hitting 6-7th in the Rockies lineup. I’ve got him in a keeper and am high on him as you are, but would prefer to have my best assets hitting in the top 4 of a lineup regularly. Of course with the Rockies you get more R/RBIs deeper in to the lineup than other teams.

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Eric: Not worried

  22. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Cutch was Dreadful last year, NOT dreckful..

  23. ChiCitySox23 says:
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    Last year this time I was pretty high on Conforto (and other things). Had given up hope and had moved on, now I’m reading about Bruce taking grounders at first and Conforto actually looking good at the plate. Warming on him at all this spring with better playing time or still bleh?

    • Cram It says:
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      @ChiCitySox23: I’m pretty sure the sole reason for being down on him is playing time. So if he gets closer to a full time role, then of course, his stock will rise. Dude’s a good hitter. As a Mets fan, I’m hoping Bruce can do first base. That would be so perfect.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @ChiCitySox23: The problem is Conforto is still platoon guy if Duda and Bruce are healthy… He’s not playing over Yoenis and Grandy

  24. Sing Us a Vogelsong You're the Pineda Man says:
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    Going for the ‘ship this year in my keeper league. I have a good balance of young and veteran players (skewing closer to young players though). My league greatly values innings pitched, wins, and K’s (it’s a points league). I try to follow your rankings based on key words (usually when you say “I want them on all my teams” or “expect a major breakthrough” etc) and your projections.

    All of that being said I’m leaning toward sending David Dahl to another highly competitive owner for Justin Verlander (I could use his IP and K’s). My OF is already super stacked with Betts, Springer, and Polanco. Seems like a no-brainer. What are your thoughts?

    Thanks for the dope write-ups. And for the head’s up on Betts, Arenado, Polanco, Springer, etc.

    PS. Have you ever listened Wugazi? It is remixed Fugazi with Wu-Tang Clan lyrics. P-cool if you like Fugazi.

  25. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    I’m with you on Cutch. Low 20s home run power, single digit steals, a neutral average, and around 160 R+RBI. If you took his name away from that projection, you might think it’s Stephen Piscotty, or even someone like Kole Calhoun. Nothing wrong with those players, but there’s no reason to spend a top 80 or so pick on a high floor, low ceiling OF3. Cutch is cruising along on name value at this point.

    You know who’s ADP surprises me? Aaron Sanchez. I know that he has electric stuff, but he only had a 7.55 K/9 last season. Pitches in the AL East in a hitter’s park and saw his workload jump around 90 innings from the previous season. He’s currently the 24th SP off of the board and is going just outside of the top 100. No thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Big Magoo: Agreed on both fronts… As I said in my SP rankings, I don’t like Sanchez at all… He surprises me too on ADP b/c I didn’t get the sense people loved him last year… Plus, Jays are not going to be good this year

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @Grey: Yeah, the Jays are definitely in decline. Lots of thirty somethings and a weak farm system. Looks like a slow rebuild is on the way.

        You know who else is going crazy high (now that you have me thinking of schmohawks)? Bogaerts. It wouldn’t surprise me if he hit 18 homers and stole 10 bases this year. I get the value of the R+RBI and a .290 average, but he’s basically Yelich at SS. That’s a top 30 pick? I don’t see it.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Totally agree, especially after that 2nd half Bogaerts had

      • LenFuego says:
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        @Grey: Gonna play a little devil’s advocate here.

        Sanchez pitched in AL East in pitcher’s park last year too … and led the AL in ERA and HR/9. Was in Cy Young discussion (think he finished 7th). He was extremely consistent – gave up more than 2 earned runs in only 9 of 30 starts. And he is just 24 years old.

        I am not saying he should be picked higher than his current ADP (104 or so), but he just has too high a floor and too high a ceiling to fall below that, which is around the 24th starting pitcher.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          If you like him, go for it…I wouldn’t touch

  26. Patrick says:
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    Good stuff…if he falls a lot further in drafts, his potential bounce back could make for a good play in redraft leagues…again, he has to fall much lower though.

    Looking for advice with Keeper problems in a standard $260 5 X 5 auction league that is in its 5th year, so inflation is starting to kick in pretty significantly

    Can only keep 8

    Bryant $19
    Goldy $50
    C. Seager $8
    Odor $30
    Bregman $3
    J. Turner $8
    Benintendi $3
    Mazara $4
    Kluber $18
    Cueto $23
    Hendrcks $8
    Paxton $5

    Leaning towards Bryant, Goldy, Bregman, Beni, Seager, Kluber, Paxton and either Hendricks or Turner…or I could trade Goldy and like Mazara for a cheaper Betts $25.

    Grateful for any clarity on narrowing this list down to 8

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! How many teams?

      • Patrick says:
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        @Grey:

        12

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Bryant $19
      Goldy $50
      C. Seager $8
      Odor $30
      Bregman $3
      Benintendi $3
      Kluber $18
      Hendricks

    • Damon says:
      (link)

      @Patrick:

      Yeah, with these shmohawks I always try to figure out where I’d take them, although typically it’s a moot point since top 100 players are almost always taken within a round of their ADP. MCutchen is going to go between 44 and 68 90% of the time this year. If it gets to the 7th round of a 12 team league I might start thinking about him, depending on team needs.

  27. Malicious Phenoms says:
    (link)

    Twins top prospect, Alex Krilloff, out for the year, TJ surgery..Hmm, dude is an OF..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Oh well

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @Malicious Phenoms: i got him in a 30 team dynasty as my 1st rounder this year.

  28. Bill Lumbergh says:
    (link)

    Grey: Ok to punt saves in a 30-team 5×5 roto? I’ve got Addison Reed in hopes of getting a few vulture saves when/if Familia gets suspended. Some teams have 2 closers & no saves on the wire… Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d prefer not to punt anything, but if you drafted and you only have Reed what choice do you have? Trade? Maybe, if price is right

      • Bill Lumbergh says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks man! As you can imagine, with 30 teams everyone has holes. Mine is at 2nd base. Got offered Mondesi for Addison Reed. Should I take the deal? Current 2nd baseman on my roster are quite glamorous: Jace Peterson, Derek Dietrich and Cory Spangenberg. Also have Doolittle as a spec saves guy… thx!

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @Bill Lumbergh: Mondesi isn’t much of an upgrade. If everyone’s hurting for saves, why don’t you be proactive and shop Reed around?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Take Mondesi

          • Bill Lumbergh says:
            (link)

            @Grey: thanks!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              No problem

  29. jeff says:
    (link)

    Thanks for the McCutchen comments. Was on the fence till now!!

    Trade question – for my NL only 5 category keeper league, if you were me, would you deal Rich Hill at $16 and Dansby Swanson (currently stashed away in my minor league vault) for some two person combo of Vince Velasquez ($12), Robbie Ray ($5), Jon Gray ($10)?

    I’m not sold on Hill and while everyone says Swanson is a stud, I’m looking to take a chance on two high risk/reward pitchers. Or am I on crack for even thinking about this??? Thanks!!!

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @jeff: I’d try to get more for Swanson than a couple of risky pitchers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No problem! I’d hold

  30. Niceguybilly says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey!
    Great write up as always. Have a trade question for you. In a keeper 14 team league with OBP which side do you prefer?
    Godly/Tim Anderson
    For
    Odor/Votto

    Thanks in advance.
    Have a great day!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Odor

  31. SAll Goooood, Man says:
    (link)

    I still can’t stop the thought where McCutchen looks just like Omar from The Wire.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Oh yeah, they do kinda resemble each other

  32. Synyster says:
    (link)

    I’d just like to take a second and say I appreciate all the work you put into these. I’ve followed pretty closely to your rankings, information for the past few years which resulted in cashes in my 10 man standard rotisserie league. I look forward to continue that trend this year. So again, thank you.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks for the kind words!

  33. Roger Podacter says:
    (link)

    Back in the day on the boulevards of Pitty,
    There’s used to be guy who you’d say he played gritty,

    it was dongs, and steals; he was Cucth the 5 tooler,
    But Marte came along and he would never be cooler,

    Yo Grey, do you remember that routine?
    I forgot to mention I’m Canadian, Poutine,

    “Um, Um, a titbit, um, um, a smidgeon, ”
    was it ‘Cutch was a ‘Hawk and now he’s turned into a Pigeon.?’

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Awesome!

  34. Son of Bob says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey! I’m in a 10 team 6×6 category league. R, HR, RBI, SBN, OBP, SLG and IP, W, ERA, WHIP, K/9, and SVHD are the categories.

    I’ve got the 10th pick in the draft, and I can keep 2 guys from last year with the pick they were drafted in. Who would you keep out of these options?
    Altuve (1st)
    Miguel Cabrera (2nd)
    Strasburg (5th)
    Odor (10th)
    D Murph (12th)
    Desmond (15th)
    Gausman (25th)

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Odor, Desmond

  35. Turd Ferguson says:
    (link)

    Deep AL Only H2H keeper league (12 mlb, 4 milb players). I have a solid core team and due to some interleague trades have 7 prospects. Its a 2 catcher league. Which side do you want in this one:

    I give: Lorenzo Cain and AJ Reed
    I get: Carlos Gomez and Salvador Perez

    Thanks in advance Grey

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
      (link)

      @Turd Ferguson:
      Take Gomez and Sal

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Neither? Gomez side

      • Turd Ferguson says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks guys!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem, TF!

  36. SpecialFNK says:
    (link)

    16 team keeper league, yahoo, roto, 5×5.

    who is a better keeper for 2017, 3B Adrian Beltre or OF Christian Yelich.

    I already have Bumgarner, Machado, Marte, and Trumbo.
    keeping Beltre could allow me to use him at 3B and Machado at SS.
    Beltre has the higher risk, but more likely better in 2017?
    I’m not concerned with 2018 plus, just what gives me the best chance to win in 2017.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Beltre

  37. Roll of SAGNOF, Hear my Cry says:
    (link)

    Got an AL only dynasty, and the keeper deadline is next week. Should I trade $7 Kelvin Herrera for $30 Tanaka? My pitching staff has mostly below-market costs (Darvish $14, Paxton $2, Shoemaker $3, McCullers $8), so I think I can afford to overpay on Tanaka a little. Other options for pitchers are in draft, where Price will cost likely north of $40.

    thanks G

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hold

  38. JB2 says:
    (link)

    If Salazar/Duffy/Paxton are my top 3 starters, will my universe implode upon itself? I’m as strong a believer in the “don’t spend on SP” theory as anyone, but I’m having doubts. Help me in my unbelief!

  39. Packers says:
    (link)

    I drafted the following team in a live 12 team roto. I had the 12th pick.
    1B. Freeman
    1B. Ago
    2B. Odor
    2B. Zobrist
    SS. Corea
    SS. Semien
    3B. Franco
    3B. Healy
    OF. Myers
    OF. Dahl
    OF. Grichuk
    OF. Beni
    OF. Kepler
    C. Rupp
    C. J. McCann
    P. Cmart
    P. Duffy
    P. Quintana
    P. Odorizzi
    P. Ray
    P. V. V.
    P. Hammel
    Cl. Melancon
    Cl. Herrera

    What is your take. SB, maybe lite. Wins maybe lite. 6×5 ops added hitter cat.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You don’t have steals at all, but with OPS it’s not terrible… I think you’re hitting and pitching are a bit high on upside

  40. Andrew says:
    (link)

    Almighty Grey-

    Got a dynasty/keeper question for you. In a new-ish league where you can keep as many players on your roster as you would like, as long as you stay under $300.

    Would you trade Jon Gray ($5 this year, $10 next year) and Pineda ($5 this year, $10 next year) for Cespedes ($14 this year and next year)?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I would

  41. Packers says:
    (link)

    Thanks. Looking at the board I would’ve had to draft a SP1 in the 4th round. Then I had a choice of A. Jones or Beni, drafting 2 guys in a row then waiting 23 picks got me off my plan. As you know if there is a run all a guy can do is cross guys off a list. We also know that this roster is not what it will look like in June.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No problem!

  42. Maxwell says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, who wins this trade?

    Side A: Altuve, 10th round pick selecting last
    Side B: Lester, 4th round pick selecting 5th

    Categories league

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Altuve

  43. JeF WiTh 1 F says:
    (link)

    Semian just went…My M.I. may be a rough ride…Hopefully Broxton hangs around for 12 more picks….
    I also just noticed that SVs and Holds combined is one category, not sure how i missed that but doesn’t that devalue the closers? ….I may be able to wait another round and take 2 bats next time around…

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
      (link)

      @JeF WiTh 1 F: I just double checked it…it is saves and holds combined…no need for a closer at all really..works for me now but don’t love it in general.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Yeah, you can just draft a guy like Barraclough late

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
      (link)

      @JeF WiTh 1 F: Im thinking of taking Broxton and Pedroia with the next 2 now…slim pickings at 2nd base…after that im thinking another starter and either ToJo or Moreland for my IF spot

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
        (link)

        @JeF WiTh 1 F: Could go a little safer with Agone too

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Do you need A-Gon? You need a 2B

          • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Yeah pedroia doesnt do much for me other than help with OBP…i was talking Agon (or ToJo/Moreland) after Pedroia and Broxton

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Ah, yeah, they’re kinda all the same

              • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Could go with Starlin Castro…always hate owning him

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  15/15 vs. 22/5, runs vs. RBIs

                  • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: Yeah all options are Bleh…Could always go back to the Wong

                    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
                      (link)

                      @JeF WiTh 1 F: Or option D…Take McCullers and Broxton and Forget 2nd base and SS

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Sexier names, but you need a 2B… Pedroia and Broxton or McCullers

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      Feels early for Wong

                    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
                      (link)

                      @JeF WiTh 1 F: Yeah I’m going to take Pedroia first, McCullers if he’s there..if not Broxton

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      That makes sense

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Pedroia’s so bleh

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      That devalues closers by a lot… You just need two relievers then…

  44. Blind Umps have rights too (seriously their union is that strong) says:
    (link)

    first time auction dynasty league. h2h 12 teamer with K’s, OPS, k per 9 and QS added 7×7.
    i joined this last year post keepers and post auction draft (we also do a 2 round prospect draft where a 1st rounder costs $10 each year for 3 years (contract years clock doesn’t start till year prospect makes his 130 at bats/50 innings), a 2nd rounder $5 for same 3 years each. anybody obtained from FA (unless you used more than $10 in FAAB to obtain) costs $10 and is now in their 2nd year out of 3.
    C sanchez (10, year 2/3)
    1B
    2B villar (also SS/3B, $10, year 2/3)
    3B moncada ($1 year 1/3 last year’s at bats didn’t start his clock)
    SS ceager (1 year 2/3)
    OF (3) cruz (15, 3/3)
    – schwarber (also C, 2/3)
    – buxton (5, 2/3)
    util (2) j.baez (10, 2/3)
    – k.davis (10, 2/3)
    SP (about 8 SP optimal here, that leaves room for 3/4 closers and 1/2 BN hitters)
    -kershaw (52, 3/3)
    – stressbird (38, 3/3)
    – hamels (19, 3/3)
    – rodon (1, 2/3)
    -hendricks (10, 2/3)

    RP (max slots for 6, but it’s saves only so 4 or at most 5 is enough here and this league last year was by far my easiest to obtain closers in)
    – chapman (29, 3/3)
    – colome (10, 2/3)
    max budget for keepers = $229. entire budget after 2 round prospect draft and after regular auction draft = $296. max keepers are also 18 players.

    other possibles for keepers, all are $10 and in year 2/3: b.miller/morales/healy/kiermaier/beltran/w.ramos/ottavino/musgrove

    1. do my keepers look about right?
    2. drop stressbird for that price? (i already last year dropped a $32 harvey, yes this team was entirely pitching heavy when i took it over, only lament is that i dropped a $2 turner midseason)
    3. keep any of the possible other guys?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      2. Yes 3. Healy, Miller

  45. quimmy says:
    (link)

    Grey! Sorry about the repost. Need some advice. In my keeper league with k/9 qs and inn as extra pitcher cats, which situation/rotation to go into the draft with do you prefer:

    (we start 6 SP and 3 SP)

    Price
    Taillon
    Matz
    Bundy (rp/sp)
    First pick in the draft would start rd 6

    or

    Price
    Sale
    First pick in the draft would start rd 7

    Sorry about all the specificity. Tough call with the deadline tonight. Thanks sir.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Price/Sale/7

  46. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    15 Team Kentucky Derby Style Pick selection coming up this weekend. How are you ranking draft slots this year? Thinking about going 4,3,2,1 to start As I value Trout, Goldy, Arenado, Bryant highest on my list. (Not crazy about going Betts or Altuve with first pick)

    But then I am kind of at a quandry. Looking at jumping to 12,13,14,15 after that and then filling in the middle. Trying to get a Miggy/Marte, Turner/Springer type combo if I end up not getting top 4.

    How are you looking at, or ranking draft slots?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      That doesn’t sound terrible, but why not just do 1,2,3,4…?

      • The Great Knoche says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Too Cliche. It’s the kind of thing an idiot would have on his luggage combination.

        And I want a better chance of Giancarlo. This is the year we’ve been waiting for.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          This is it?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Finally? Oh thank God

  47. henncoop says:
    (link)

    I am attempting a 5X5 roto 15 team 2 catcher league with lineups every Mon & Fri. It is a slow draft & 50 rounds!! I did not realize the 50 rounds before joining & I was the last team to join so I am in. It is also a 2 catcher league.
    My 2 questions are how to play a 2 catcher league …from what i recall I will want at least one “decent” catcher?
    2nd question …how to draft in a 50 round draft?? There is no trading in this league as well . Any strategies I might use to get the best team? I would think a drafting quite a few set up men as potential closers & young studs who might get called up later in the year …any other suggestions??

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, you want one decent catcher and punt one… But you’re gonna have to draft at least 3 or 4 catchers in 50 rounds… Especially if there’s no waivers… You need a ton of starters, and lots of backup hitters

  48. henncoop says:
    (link)

    There are waivers but no trades if that changes things

    • henncoop says:
      (link)

      @henncoop: But Ii guess same difference what will be left after drafting 750 players?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Yup

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Doesn’t change much

  49. Mr Baseball says:
    (link)

    THE DYNASTY DRAFT – NO AVE – WE USE OBP AND SLG

    I am 2nd to pick – who would you take grey STORY CORREA OR RIZZO or someone else

    1 – Myrtle Beach Mermen/ Derek – Mike Trout LAA – CF
    2 – Bat Flip Master/Josh – Kris Bryant ChC – 1B,3B,LF,RF
    3 – Stay Thirsty/ Chris – Mookie Betts Bos – RF
    4 – Tod’s Terrific Team/ Tod – Nolan Arenado Col – 3B
    5 – Golden Sombreros/Jim S – Manny Machado Bal – 3B,SS
    6 – jim’s Superb Team/ Jim L – Jose Altuve
    7 – Optimist/ Nathan S – Bryce Harper Was – RF
    8 – Crimson Worm/Robert – Josh Donaldson/3B
    9 – Evil Empire/Nick – Corey Seager SS, LAD
    10 – Gooff Jonkins/Phil/Bob – Paul Goldschmidt 1B Diamondbacks.
    11 – Russ’s Standout Team/ Russ – Trea Turner
    12 – Gods of Hellfire/Adam
    13 – Mr Baseball/Moe
    14 – Carolina Copperheads/Tony
    15 – Los Pollos Hermanos/Jake
    16 – clemete patronus/Nathan M
    17 – Place Your Betts/ Mike
    18 – I Heart BJ’s/Daniel B
    19 – Respectful Dons/ Dan C
    20 – StantonLikeMyDaddy/ Eachan

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Rizzo

      • Mr Baseball says:
        (link)

        And if he is gone – I know I should have ask for your top 2 man

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Correa

  50. Jack says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey! Looking forward to another year of badass advice from Dickie Thon himself! You worried at all about Mad Max’s knuckle? I can keep either him or Jake the Snake. Also, which round are you targeting Dahl and Myers? 12 team h2h. Thanks, bro!

  51. Jack says:
    (link)

    Almost forgot. I usually pick a good prospect in my final rounds. Grabbed Story last year. Who ya got this year?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Prospects are listed on same page

  52. Cohen says:
    (link)

    Grey, 12 team roto, alot of mocks ive done Segura has been there in the 70-75 pick range. Espn has him at#84 and u got him 35.I read your write up on him but would u draft him in the 70-75 range?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Sure

  53. Andy says:
    (link)

    14 Team H2H Keeper League

    Keep 7 no restrictions.

    Settled on 5 keepers

    Keepers: Altuve, Donaldson, Votto, Villar, and
    Verlander

    Options for last two spots: Duvall, LeMahieu ,and Kimbrel.

    Would you trade Donaldson for Bogaerts and Desmond?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yes

  54. JeF WiTh 1 F says:
    (link)

    Got Pedroia…yay..McCullers is gone though, I didn’t really need him but he would have been a nice trade chip for something I did need

    • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
      (link)

      @JeF WiTh 1 F: ….Like a 2nd baseman lol…SS is going to be even worse

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
        (link)

        @JeF WiTh 1 F:
        Andrus, Gyorko, A.Escobar, K.Marte, Arcia ..I can’t go any further, I’m getting nauseous. I’m thinking take Arcia if he’s there and have an asdrubel Cabrera type on my bench..hope for the upside …Can’t have it all in a 20 teamer.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, Arcia’s most interesting

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Which way you going next?

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Broxton

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Nice!

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I have a fairly deep team for a 20 team..my MI is terrible but fixable during the season, other than that I’m in pretty good shape, especially not needing a closer.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, not bad at all

  55. JeF WiTh 1 F says:
    (link)

    Love your rankings bro, they are the best I’ve ever seen..not blowing smoke at you but the fact you take into account things that numbers don’t show is what got me reading your stuff I think like 5 years ago. Appreciate the work and letting people bounce shit off you all day.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Someone’s drinking! Thanks, man!

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Grey: HA HA …Nope..just puffin the magic dragon lol

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha

  56. jjb says:
    (link)

    I have a 6$ Sanchez and wanted to know if trading him for a 6$ Story was a good deal. 12 team 5×5 Roto 2 catcher, CI MI 5 OF 2 UT league. I am also keeping gattis at 1$

  57. ____ says:
    (link)

    has cutch ever been anything but overrated? before i re-retired from fantasy, i don’t think i ever had him, even for a season of dfs. he’ll probably bounce back to 2015 numbers, but those are pretty much 2016 cargo numbers and that’s only good enough for 70th best player. it’s interesting how sometimes you can get to the same conclusion using different stats. for hr’s, i use gb/fb and hr/fb%.

    the buffet of fantasy, huh? how about the j-lo of fantasy? or maybe shania twain?

Comments are closed.