This post might only be for those in the back of the room who aren’t paying attention to things like BABIP. It’s all right with me. I ain’t mad at cha. In fact, it makes my job easier. Most people are gonna know going into 2011 that Aaron Hill was crazy unlucky last year. Like, for reals. His BABIP was .196, eighty-eight points off his career BABIP of .288. That career BABIP is also factoring in his Murphy Law-esque 2010, before that it was above .300. But as Ernest Hemingway once said, “You make your own luck.” I’m guessing he said that before he killed himself. Or in Hill’s case, you make your own unlucky. His fly balls went through the roof (not literally, I don’t think) with the percentage going from 41% to 54.2%. His line drives went from 19.6% to 10.6%. When you hit more fly balls, more fielders catch the ball. Hit more line drives and you get more hits. See how that could affect your average? Okay, I know too many numbers make your eyes heavy so I’ll get to the nuts. What can we expect of Aaron Hill in 2011 fantasy baseball and what makes him a fantasy sleeper?
He just needs to revert — in the smallest of possible ways — to his old shizz. Maybe he changed his swing last year to hit more fly balls because he liked how that felt in 2009. “Hey, Ma, I no longer have to take my dates to see a Drew Barrymore movie because these homers are Spanish Fly for the ladies. Oh, and say hi to Pops for me!” That’s what Hill said on the phone last year. So in 2011 he goes back to how he was swinging prior. Swinging in all senses of the word. Or maybe he keeps trying to hit everything out of the park. Whatever. Honestly, don’t think it matters. It would be nearly impossible for him to duplicate the league’s lowest BABIP. I can’t imagine he hits below .260 in 2011. After that the only real concern is his health and, at 2nd base, you can deal with his occasional DL stint. I could see him giving you a line of 80/25/85/.275/5, which makes him a solid 2011 fantasy baseball sleeper.
I’m assuming you are referring to the Dwayne Murphy law, which stipulates that all Jays players he coaches should hit for the fences or die trying. Other famous victim: Adam Lind. (NB: the approach worked beautifully for Buck, Alex Gonzalez and of course Bautista. But it just might not fit every player.)
It’s really nice that you are kicking out fantasy articles at this time of year. I’m starving for study material. This is the very best fantasy baseball site on the Internet.
@Giant JJ: Amen. You are damn right.
Hemingway also was quoted saying: “A man’s got to take a lot of punishment to write a really funny book.” Which means that I should compose a hilarious book about the Mets. As the Phillies assemble the best starting four since the Braves of Maddux et al, the Mets are salivating over Jeff Francis and Chris-Pee Young. Grey, please don’t write a post about either, it would just increase my angina and biliousness.
If you ever get a chance, visit Hemingway’s estate. Surrounded by Polydactyls, you come to the back where you see what looks like an ordinary built in swimming pool. It was apparently built by one of his wives as a surprise for him while he was traipsing overseas. On one side of the pool is a nickle embedded in concrete. When I asked what that meant, the guide told me that the price of the pool was extraordinary, being that it was dug into sheer coral. Hemingway was reputed to have said, “She spent my last nickel to build this damn pool.” At any rate, Earnest spent a great deal more time in the GREEN PARROT engaging in debauchery then he did swimming in his million dollar pool.
@Giant JJ: this site is the best thing out here, welcome… if you stick around there’s a “small” commentators league in the spring…. lol
Wonder if El Pulpo has ever been to the Hemingway estate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Alfonseca
http://www.hemingwayhome.com/HTML/our_cats.htm
@DrEasy: The Toronto roster looks more like a mine field than a gold mine for fantasy baseballers: Bautista, Hill, Lind, Wells, Yunel, Rajai
did you see this ?
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/San-Diego-Padres-closer-Heath-Bell-recovering-from-typhoid-fever-121510
@sean: bautista yes, but Hill, Lind and Snider should be better/progress….
@DrEasy: Ha! Yeah, of course.
@Giant JJ: Thanks for the kind words!
@Paulie Allnuts: Yeah, never been down in Key West. Will have to one day.
@Jake in Columbus: What’s the connection?
@big o: Yikes… No, I hadn’t heard.
@Grey: Six fingered & toed pitcher, extra-digit-ed cats at the estate. Had heard about the cats before and remembered Alfonseca, so found it a humorous baseball connection. If I have to explain it, the humor is probably lacking. Polydactyly probably isn’t funny to everyone who has it either.
@Jake in Columbus: Ah, that is funny. Didn’t read the about the cats that thoroughly.
Whats up Grey! Hope you’ve been having fun this offseason. Last year I was Long Bong Hitters, but I’m sticking with my ffb screenname to stay consistent
Last year was the first year that I found your site and I fell in love with it.
I have never done a dynasty or keeper league before. I just got into an open spot in $115 12 team dynasty keeper league.
Here is basically my scenario. We get 6 keepers and 1 A keeper and 1 B keeper. They are based upon number of AB’s or IP’d. And A is pretty much a rookie last year, and a B is a rookie from two years ago. And also up to 8 minor league keepers
My 6 keepers would be:
Matt Holliday
Dustin Pedroia
Shane Victorino (the worst of the bunch)
Jon Lester
Justin Verlander
Dan Haren
And I get the first pick in the draft, and drew the number 1 pick for the minor league draft too (BRYCE HARPER!!!!)
I don’t have any good eligible A’s or B’s right now.
A team keeps offering me Jayson Werth and Tommy Hanson (B keeper) along with Randall Delgado or so for Holliday. This other team also has Desmond Jennings who he said is available for the right price. We can trade draft picks, and he is really interested in them, but I will not trade the first pick in either draft.
I guess one of my questions in this mess is how much higher ranked do you have Holliday over Werth? I don’t think Hanson is enough to make up for it. However, if I include like a 4th round pick, perhaps I get get Jennings thrown in there? What do you think is a fair price on Jennings? Is trading Holliday for that bunch something you’d look to do in this situation?
***********ALSO, I’d be interested in feedback from anyone else too. Both my FFB teams are in the semi’s, but since getting my roster, I have just been thinking about FBB***************
@The Vaporizers: Thanks for the kind words! Holliday’s way above Werth. Hanson is not enough. If you get Jennings then it changes things. I’d take Werth, Hanson and Jennings for Holliday.
****About to do a mock draft with Eric Karabell. Hehe******
@Grey: Can’t wait to see that mock!
@Grey:
or @anyone:
does razzball have a mobile phone friendly option to view the site? can’t load the full, normal site otherwise, and i’d really like to be able read articles/comments on the go.
My guesses at likely players to be on Grey’s roster:
Aaron Hill (unless he gets Utley early), Morrow, Quentin, Chacin, Hudson, Kuroda, Pena, Alvarez, Ethier, Gio
@Jake: I look at Razzball on my iPhone and can see it.
@Terrence Mann: Some nice names there.
@Grey: I’m sure I’m missing a couple guys you have your eyes on….when can we expect you to post this mock?
@Terrence Mann: I might post in the comments… It’s for a magazine so I can’t put it on the site as a post.
@Grey: grey you’re so cool, i hope i can grow up and be like you haha….. good luck
***Wright and Howard with the first two picks.
@Grey: ESPN or a different mag?
@Terrence Mann: Rotowire… Which I didn’t even know had a magazine.
OF in round three….here it comes…..
@Terrence Mann: Went with Kinsler.
Not shocking.
Rd 4 McCutchen, Jupside, Ethier
Probably in that order
You pick 11th?
@Terrence Mann: I do pick 11th. I’d go Upton, McCutchen, Ethier… But I went Andrus then Lester. Didn’t get an OF until the 6th round and there was nothing there so went with Rasmus. Scary how shallow OF is.
5/6 I was gonna guess Donkey if he was there, then your first SP – Verlander, Greinke, or maybe Cain. Donkey must have been gone. You take another SP in 5? Morneau or Konerko?
7/8 Delmon Young, Stanton, Vlad. 2 of those 3
Maybe Gallardo in 5 if he fell
@Grey: I like me some Colby.
Add Krispie to the 7/8 list. 9/10 PacMan or Quentin and probably Bell or Feliz.
@Terrence Mann: I had Howard… Didn’t take a 1st baseman. I told you my 5th pick already.
@Smokey: I do too, but it’s a steep price to pay.
11/12 is a good place for Grey starters. Buchholz if he’s there. Maybe Morrow or Romero. Dirty Sanchez. A closer if he hasn’t grabbed one yet.
@Grey: I do agree that OF is shallow i’m all for the belief you load up on 1B/CI early fill in OF with 15/20 certainty and pray the DL fairy don’t bite.
@Grey: @Grey: You draft CI early like Smokey did last night. Taking Pena in 11/12 wouldn’t surprise me.
@Smokey: Yeah, agreed.
@Terrence Mann: It’s a 14 team league… Pena’s been gone for rounds already.
@Grey:
what pick was uggla taken ?
14 teams? That changes things. You got Howard 15th? Nice.
@big o: Went right after Kinsler.
@Terrence Mann: Took Neftali in the 10th round.
@Terrence Mann: I did get Howard with the 15th pick.
@Terrence Mann: You think Bucholz maintains anywheres close to 2010′s 2.33 Era? Just curious.
@Grey: Wait, no. I’m picking 11th. Howard was the 17th pick.
7/8 you got Krispie, Stanton, Delmon, Quentin, Pacman, Vlad probably in that order
Need a hangover cure. Anyone?
Worst one for years.
@Grey: 17th? Jeebus. You drafting against the whole ESPN staff?
@Smokey: No. Not in that division. I got on the Buchholz wagon from Grey. Helped me when my league when Garza and Hughes went to shit.
@Steve: Get drunk again.
@Terrence Mann: Ha
@Grey: That would make it three days running. Actually I’m probably still drunk now.
I need to know who you grabbed in 7/8 to make further predictions. So far I’m sucking like Broxton down the stretch.
@Steve: Eggs anything with protein it absorbs into your body faster than anything.
@Terrence Mann: ok cool, i think he regresses big time, but thas just me his xFIP was almost double his Era.
@Steve: Smoke some weed.
@Terrence Mann:
Soto (it’s a 2 catcher league)
Lind
Vazquez
Feliz
Quentin
Colby Lewis
@Smokey: I know Grey likes him still but don’t know how he ranks in relation to Marcum, Morrow, Romero, Sanchez. Wandy above all those guys. Maybe he took Wandy in 7/8
@Grey: Forgot you like Vasquez again. Nice on getting Quentin that late.
13/14 is where you get strong. Chacin, Hudson, Kuroda, Kimbrel, Zambrano, Gio, Bumgarner.
I KNOW you took at least one of those guys in 13/14
@Grey: @Steve: That works too, i got 5 on it…
@Terrence Mann: Kuroda and Aardsma…
@Grey: @Smokey: Heh – not really my go, though. Think I’ll go look for a bacon and egg sandwich and some coffee.
Don’t think much work will get done today…
@Steve: Vicodin… Kidding. Eat something greasy.
@Grey: What the hell are you doing about the rest of your outfield? Snider? Dominic Brown? I know your 5th guy will be sagnof.
15/16 is the best upside power outfielder you can find and another starter off my 13/14 list if there’s anyone left. If all those pitchers are gone, I’m guessing Garcia, Santana, or a Hodgepadre.
@Terrence Mann: They’re long gone. I need two more. Going there after my next SP.
@Terrence Mann: Right now, Cueto or dlR are next on my queue.
Surprised you took Kuroda over Yaphet Cueto, I guess.
There’s gotta be someone you can plug in at #4 OF. Guessing Kubel and Cuddyer gone. Beltran maybe. Robot probably gone. Maybe you go with two sagnofs in your outfield. Gotta be pretty damn thin.
Alex Gordon maybe? I mean, Good Lord. I wouldn’t want him at #4 OF but at least he has power upside.
I’m calling your CI as Kotchman or Branyan and a foxhole prayer.
@Grey: Cody Ross, Boesch Austin Jax types
Hey Grey, after seeing the counter offers, I thought I’d never be able to make this trade go down. So we emailed back and forth over our opinions of the players and offers and this is what he just proposed. I think I am going to pull the trigger, but of course, wanted your advice since this is a big move in a big league that I just got in a matter of days ago.
Werth/Hanson/Jennings for Holliday and 3rd round pick (25)
Its a keep 6, so that is more like a 9th round pick for a regular draft. I think its a move I got to make. I know I wouldn’t be getting a future keeper with that 3rd round pick and I’m confidant that the knowledge you will bestow on me will have me picking up gems in the later rounds.
@Terrence Mann: Too Cueto and Logan Morrison. Andres Torres and SAGNOF are left in the OF.
@The Vaporizers: Looks good.
@Grey: Took not too.
6×5(+OPS), keeper league. Felix and M. Young for Werth and Howard?
@Black Beard: I’d take Howard.
Surprised Morrison was still there. After looking at our mock last night and your draft today, I think it’s pretty clear that waiting on SP is the way to go. Even more than usual. 1B and 3B is a bit deeper than usual. You found out today and guys were commenting in our draft last night that OF is super shallow. I know your motive has always been 1B, 3B, and OF in the first three rounds unless a guy like Kinsler drops. But I’m thinking that maybe it’s better to wait on 3B and get a guy like Alvarez or wait a bit on 1B and get a guy like Konerko or Morneau. Almost HAVE to take an OF in the first three rounds, even if you grab a guy like Kinsler or Reyes. And I don’t think I’ll be taking a pitcher in the first ten rounds. You got stuck with Torres as your 4th OF when maybe it would have been better to grab another hitter where you took Haren. I’ll sacrifice Haren (or in my case Cain in the 6th last night) for another bat and then have faith in my ability to grab pitchers like Kuroda, Gio, Cueto later. The dropoff in power is just too much to take a pitcher that early.
Just my early thoughts on approaching drafts next year.
Thanks for the help Grey. Going into this league the two guys I wanted most for the long term future, I have – Desmond Jennings and Bryce Harper.
I will take a little lump in my batting stats, but with Lester, Verlander, Haren, Hanson at the front of the rotation, I like my odds in winning the pitching stats for the most part! I’ll look to draft Morrow as well. It will be hard to beat my team in K’s!
@Terrence Mann: 3rd base is a wasteland. Worst than past years.
@The Vaporizers: Cool…
@Grey: Thanks Grey, one more, same league: Kinsler for Lincecum?
@Black Beard: Kinsler
@Grey: How does 1B seem? If memory serves, you didn’t want to leave the first two rounds without one this year.
Same deal in ’11?
@Steve: 1st base isn’t as bad. Still want a top one, but you can go a little deeper to get one.
@Grey:
I definitely agree that it’s a scary thing that the OF is so shallow. It seems like a bunch of 15 HR, 60 RBI guys are just scattered. Like I said last night in the mock, rounds 7-14 more or less are pretty rough.
Thank god that I’m keeping CarGo in the 13th for my H2H league next year. I’m planting on supplementing him with perhaps Crawford, Nelson Cruz, or Adam Dunn in round 3.
Anyways, here are the results from my Razzball mock Grey.
C Michael Napoli R11
1B Ryan Howard R2
1B Aubrey Huff R9
1B Gaby Sanchez R18
2B Dan Uggla R3
SS Elvis Andrus R4
SS Danny Espinosa R19
3B David Wright R1
OF Jacoby Ellsbury R5
OF Torii Hunter R7
OF Delmon Young R8
OF Nick Swisher R14
OF Desmond Jennings R17
SP Zack Greinke R6
SP Josh Beckett R12
SP Colby Lewis R13
SP C.J. Wilson R15
SP Jeremy Hellickson R16
RP Neftali Feliz R10
RP Kevin Gregg R20
RP Tyler Clippard R21
RP Chris Sale R22
I know. I have a better chance at playing russian roulette and winning than trusting my SP. I seriously don’t know how I managed to make them all AL. I was also banking on Greinke landing on an NL team.
Couple of questions: Tabata or Jennings? You think Sale will be the closer for the Indians?
@Eddy: Tabata… Sale’s on the White Sox. Thornton would be my favorite. Your SPs are terrible. Your RPs aren’t much better. Your OF looks iffy too. Team’s not my favorite.
If anyone cares, I broke down yesterday’s mock by position. Of course, some of us weren’t well-prepared (Ludwick 97th? Really?) so things may be a bit skewed.
Might help in preparing for the next one.
http://writer.zoho.com/public/vinreich/mock11
@VinWins: Someone took Tulo third?
Felt SS had a big dropoff after top 2, I think.
yeah 3B is scary, you don’t know what you’re going to get after zimmerman… i’m just waiting for michael young to show his age… youk wound be nice if you could pick up a decent 1b along with him…
@mic: Yeah, it’s a mess.
@Grey: Yeah, I got to a point in the draft, (round 8) where 3B just was crap, so I took Reynolds.
I had Donkey and Mini-Donkey. I thought about drafting MMD, but he got autopicked before I could.
@GopherDay: Yes, round “Sunglasses”
@VinWins: thanks for that… ill be more prepared for the next one…
Who won the A-Gone deal now?!!!:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/padres-acquire-eric-patterson.html
Watch out, NL West! Actually, this was probably more forward thinking than that- Having Patterson will help SD with the inevitable Philly matchup in the playoffs!
@GopherDay: Ha
@royce!: Great snag by the Padres. Think their offense concerns are now taken care of.
@royce!: @Grey: If he gets playing time, SAGNOF?
Grey – how did the draft go? Any other trends emerging beyond the paucity at 3B?
Still feel like shit, BTW.
@Steve: Yeah, I would say that if he lands a full-time gig at 2B, he could provide some nice SAGNOF at a shallow position (2B is still shallow, right?). Hopefully SD will be really aggressive at stealing in 2011. It’ll at least add some excitement to the games.
I really picked the wrong year to become a season ticket holder…
@Steve: I always find that exercise really helps with a hangover, but only after the exercise. During the exercise life is terrible.
@Steve: You’ll be all right. Just lay off the sauce for a day or two. OF is shallow. MI is shallow. There’s no hitting anywhere!
@steve @royce!: true you got to get the toxins out how some way… that why throwing up makes you feel better… if you can, hit the steam room/ sauna…
@Steve: Maybe you wanna drink yourself down. Don’t drink as much as you did yesterday. Drink half that. You won’t feel miserable and you won’t feel so horrible tomorrow. Make sure you eat good hangover food. Meat, potatoes. Not so much that you get sick.
Just my $.02
@Terrence Mann: Or perhaps top myself up?
Seriously, I like your suggestion. I’ll just have two mojitos and one bottle of wine today then.
@Steve:
Sublingual Liquid Vitamin B-Complex, works like magic.
Pretty funny how from a fantasy perspective (at least this early into next season) the year 2011 is the turning out to be the year of the pitcher instead of 2010.
So much pitching, so little offense.
@Grey:
How’s Rudy doing Grey? Haven’t heard from him in a while!
@Eddy: He’s good, was talking today about the mock draft.
@Grey How would you rank em in a keeper league: Heyward, Dread Pirate, JUpside?
Hey Grey. A couple days ago i asked you a question about keepers. my 5th keeper was youk, and i only had 1 pitcher, and its a pitcher friendly points league. so i traded hanley for gallardo and hamels. hamels himself only had 100 less points than hanley, (2473 to 2380, hanley fiinished #1 ss , cole finished #22 pitcher). im wondering how did i do? i know i can easily re-draft youk round 1 or 2 because most people will still draft pitchers. i want to know what you think of the deal i did itself, and how my new keepers are: pedroia, braun ..josh johnson, gallardo, hamels.
Also think gallardo can finally limit those walks? Jeez i thought this guy had control. if he did, he could probably add 30 innings and a lot better stats to his stats.
it was a three team trade. i gave up mat latos, tommy hanson, and cole hamels for troy tulowitzki… talk about alot of good young SP! i know! but i feel that i had plenty of SP.
anyway, its a 5 player keeper league, and now i have these five guys as my keepers:
Joey Votto
Troy Tulowitzki
Felix Hernandez
Roy Oswalt
Zack Greinke (assuming he’s dealt to a contender)
if greinke isnt dealt, i would be keeping ryan zimmerman.
do you think the move was a smart one?
@the guy on the other side of the trade with mike from jersey:
You had plenty of pitching.
@Howard: Upton, Heyward…
@Mike from Jersey: I would’ve kept Hanley.
@the guy on the other side of the trade with mike from jersey: I think the move looks fine for you.
******THERE’S A NEW POST FOR FOLLOWUPS.*******