This post might only be for those in the back of the room who aren’t paying attention to things like BABIP. It’s all right with me. I ain’t mad at cha. In fact, it makes my job easier. Most people are gonna know going into 2011 that Aaron Hill was crazy unlucky last year. Like, for reals. His BABIP was .196, eighty-eight points off his career BABIP of .288. That career BABIP is also factoring in his Murphy Law-esque 2010, before that it was above .300. But as Ernest Hemingway once said, “You make your own luck.” I’m guessing he said that before he killed himself. Or in Hill’s case, you make your own unlucky. His fly balls went through the roof (not literally, I don’t think) with the percentage going from 41% to 54.2%. His line drives went from 19.6% to 10.6%. When you hit more fly balls, more fielders catch the ball. Hit more line drives and you get more hits. See how that could affect your average? Okay, I know too many numbers make your eyes heavy so I’ll get to the nuts. What can we expect of Aaron Hill in 2011 fantasy baseball and what makes him a fantasy sleeper?
He just needs to revert — in the smallest of possible ways — to his old shizz. Maybe he changed his swing last year to hit more fly balls because he liked how that felt in 2009. “Hey, Ma, I no longer have to take my dates to see a Drew Barrymore movie because these homers are Spanish Fly for the ladies. Oh, and say hi to Pops for me!” That’s what Hill said on the phone last year. So in 2011 he goes back to how he was swinging prior. Swinging in all senses of the word. Or maybe he keeps trying to hit everything out of the park. Whatever. Honestly, don’t think it matters. It would be nearly impossible for him to duplicate the league’s lowest BABIP. I can’t imagine he hits below .260 in 2011. After that the only real concern is his health and, at 2nd base, you can deal with his occasional DL stint. I could see him giving you a line of 80/25/85/.275/5, which makes him a solid 2011 fantasy baseball sleeper.