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I was talking to Woody Harrelson about what’s happening with the Blue Jays from a fantasy perspective.  He said, “I like their 2nd baseman.  Aaron um…um….”  I said, “I know his name.  It’s surely…”  He said, “Hemp!” I said “Hill.”  Fail.  Cousin Oliver steps up to the schmohawk dunk tank and down goes Aaron Hill.  His ADP is 46.  I have him at 59.  That’s pretty close.  Close like asking for Fluff and getting Jet-Puffed Marshmallow Creme.  You settle for Jet-Puffed Marshmallow Creme, I mourn you.  I’m a Native American in a 70’s commercial watching you litter.  To get to an ADP of 46, there’s people drafting him as high as 25.  This better not be any of youse.  Don’t make me come back there!   I have Hill’s line at 85/24/80/.280/5; James has 78/20/76/.283/5; CHONE has 78/21/75/.282/4; Marcel has 76/21/75/.281/6; Point Shares has him ranked at 110 and just around average, earning -.03 points.  I’m actually the most optimistic and I’m telling you he’s overrated.  Crimey a river!  In a perfect world, Aaron Hill can hit 36 homers.  Last year was a perfect world, Costner.  His HR/FB ratio last year was 14.9%.  The three years before that were 2.4%, 8.6% and 3.6%.  You don’t have to have a BS degree from the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston to see 14.9% is a bit out of whack.  And by bit, I mean a lot.  So 25 homers seems like Hill’s peak.  What about his speed?

He doesn’t really have any.  On Bill James’s Speed Score where the average is 5.0, Hill’s at 3.2.  Behind such tug boats as Mark Teixeira, Glass Chipper and Scott Rolen.  All right, but you can’t just ignore those 108 RBIs he had last year.  Maybe you can.  He hit behind a career year from Marco Scutaro who had a .379 OBP in 680 plate appearances.  Speaking of which, Aaron Hill had the most plate appearances in the major leagues last year.  Number one.  As in, no one was in front of him number one.  You have to take that many plate appearances with a grain of salt.  In 2010, Hill will be hitting behind who?  John BuckJose Bautista?  Yeah, there goes those RBIs.  People are drafting him around the same time as Justin Morneau (30/100/.290) and Curtis Granderson (30/20)… Okay, different positions.  But how are people drafting him at the same time as Cano’s 90/27/100/.315/5?  Take a 2nd baseman later (Ian Stewart, Scott Sizemore, Kelly Johnson) instead of reaching for Aaron Hill.  He’s overrated.

  1. Asdrubal Bastardo says:
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    I got Aaron Hill for free last year, and loved it. I am not going to touch him this year, and love it.

  2. Tony says:
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    I am beginning to think in RCL the Schmohawks could turn into value since we all read the same site, lol.

    I dont know how you can look at Hills FB%’s. Until he puts in another full year. He didn’t get AB’s, was young, then was hurt (concussion), then has probably his career year…. I still think the guy can do high 20’s in HR’s and maybe clip 30. Why do i have faith? I do not know.

    Expecting him to do it is one thing. Thinking he can is another. Paying more than a 5th round pick is probably too early.

  3. peter says:
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    Got an offer in a 12 team keeper league.. I give Carpenter for a first round pick (9 keepers, so equivalent of 10th round with a handful of slightly better players available). I’m already keeping Billingsley and Wainwright; if I don’t keep Carpenter I’d be left with one of CarGo/Nyjer/Borbon/F. Cordero/or possibly Wandy (if I don’t trade him for another pick). I’m already stacked offensively.

    My gut reaction is to turn down the deal. I know there’s a ton of risk with Carpenter, but it’s worthwhile given what I’d potentially get/keep in return. If I trade Wandy, that is.

  4. Dylan says:
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    Hey Grey-

    Did you go to C of C? Still live in the Charleston area? The Cougs first baseball game is Friday and I’ll definitely be there.

  5. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: Yeah, but really your best use of the advice is to go beat people who don’t read it.

    @peter: I wouldn’t trade Carp for a draft pick.

  6. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    OK, so far for schmohawks: Mauer, Reynolds, Aramis Ramirez, Butler, Hill.

    Just a reminder: Grey was deadly (spot on) on schmohawks last year. This is the absolute best part of his game. If you are going to put your trust in him for any part of your game, make it the schmokawks.

  7. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Dylan: Nah, just find “at Charleston” mildly funny. I went to BU.

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Simply Fred: Not sure if one or two years is a big enough sample size.

  9. peter says:
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    @Grey: Thanks re: Carp. Also, that settles it, fish and chips for lunch.

  10. Stephen says:
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    @Grey: I go to a BU, but probably not the one you did. My BU is terrible.

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Stephen: Aren’t you in Minnesota? I didn’t go to that one.

  12. CocoPoolies says:
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    In a 6×5 (+OPS), Hill or Zobrist?

  13. Stephen says:
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    @Grey: Yup, I am in Minnesota, which is why I knew you didn’t go here. Plus, it’s not a big college (a little private religious school actually). Just be pleased you didn’t attend this university.

  14. @Stephen: Yikes, I know that school. Still not allowed to dance?

    Go Johnnies! Heck of a game that was this year, eh?

  15. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Beware the small sample size!

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @CocoPoolies: That’s not easy. I’d favor Zobrist by a hair.

    @dbhammel: Ha! Stephen goes to the Footloose school?

    @Steve: Yes, indeed.

  17. Stephen says:
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    @dbhammel: The Johnnies game is always a good game. Too bad BU’s football team is marginal at best since their run to the D-III final four (losing to Mount Union before MU lost to Wisconsin-Whitewater). We can dance now, and get this, drink during the summer months. Granted, I would say about a third of the student body follows those rules (No Drinking, Smoking, Sex). Truly, Wish I would have went to a different school, but not for the aforementioned reasons.

    @Grey: I can’t dance if someone paid me, but that is more because I have no rhythm.

  18. @Grey: Yeah, there school is known in our all-religious-private-small-school conference as being by far the most conservative. Up until recently no dancing, drinking, sex, drugs, must have 1 foot on the ground at all times (for cutting down on the sex).

    @Stephen: Yeah, SJU was a great place to go and be an alum of. Wow, they are really making progress out there in Arden Hills.

  19. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    ESPN lists Scott Sizemore’s eligibility as SS. We stuck with that until he plays 10 games at 2B? Interestingly, they list him at 2B on their depth chart. Does have a DTD following. Know what that refers to?

  20. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Simply Fred: That from their player rater.

  21. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Just when I thought I was out, ‘dey pulled me back in…

    I just signed up for my H2H league. I promise to keep my whining to a minimum.

    “Hi. My name is Steve and I’m a fantasy baseball addict… “

  22. Tom Reale says:
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    I’m a big fan of this schmohawk pick and Mauer, Reynolds and Moobs. But, 2B especially seems like the de facto reach and pay for last year kinda position for some reason. Look at last year with the Cuban de facto…

  23. Tom Reale says:
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    My favorite musketeer though…not a schmohawk…

  24. Stephen says:
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    @dbhammel: That school is Northwestern. He have to have a shoe in the door. I don’t live on campus, and haven’t for the last two years (thankfully). This still is no sex or smoking, but you’re able to drink without getting in trouble with the “Covenant” during the summer. It’s ridiculous and the only things, out of the 12 to 15 points on the covenant, that they can enforce is drinking, smoking and sex. They have “be good stewards” in regards to their money, but 3/4 of the students own a Coach/Gucci/Prada/Louis Vutton purses/shoes/clothes, and all the guys own designer clothes, iPhones, iMacs, and other crazy items. Not to mention the students driving BMW’s, Mustangs, Saabs, Hummers, other SUVs and sport cars. What college studen can afford those type of things, let alone ones that are suppose to be “good stewards” of their money.

    Needless to say, BU is a bunch of cynical two-face douche bags.
    *end Rant

    Yeah, they are making some decent progress, still a half-step from still being in high school though. So much “parental control” is still done though.
    @Steve: Hi Steve. Ready for the Serenity Pray?

  25. Mikey boy324 says:
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    Grey I was reading the phantasy phenoms web site about who would they take first Adam jones cargo or mcutchen and almost every1 said mccutch or cargo there was no love for Adam jones anyways who would you take first?…also they had an article about the 7-7 strategy but you had to be a member to read the whole article do you know anything about that strategy thanks as always..

  26. Antrim Warriors says:
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    @Mikey boy324: I read the same and was surprised by the overall preference of mccutchen.

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mikey boy324: Due to the fact that steals are in more abundance than power, I have Jones above those two. No idea anything else on their site, I’m not a member.

  28. Mikey boy324 says:
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    I know I mean I like all 3 but they were giving jones no love at all I happen to like jones a lot this year and grey has him ranked pretty high too so I was curious to know his thoughts..

  29. Mikey boy324 says:
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    Ya I like jones too better then all three someguy said that they believe cargo has 30-20 potential are you a believer he can do that or do you think he’s a year away?

  30. PJtres says:
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    Grey…in a 12 team keeper… (we keep 6 and start drafting round 7).

    i have utley/arod/longo/migcabrera/vmart/greinke as my keepers now.
    last year i had lester as well..

    question is: would you trade greinke/vmart for tulo and a pick???
    (and then use lester to slide into the 6th spot?)

  31. Dylan says:
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    @Grey That’s confusing because you use the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston quite a bit. I’ll accept your explanation though.

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @PJtres: It’s fair, but it feels like you’re making the other team better than you need to.

    @Dylan: Cause that’s where the College of Fantasy Baseball’s campus is.

  33. PJtres says:
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    @grey…i hear you.

    i approached him with a greinke for Tulo swap, but he said that he values tulo more than greinke….i was trying to think of deals to offer him and knew he liked vmart (again not enough for tulo straight up)…( i havent offered him anything else)

    do you like the idea of trying for tulo? or would you just stay as is going into draft?

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @PJtres: I don’t mind going after Tulo, just depends what you’re trying to get him for. Can you give him Lester and V-Mart for Tulo?

  35. Cheese

    Cheese says:
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    Grey, on August 27, 2009 you said “As I’ve been saying just about the whole season, I don’t think the 30+ homers this year is a fluke” about Aaron Hill. What changed your mind so drastically from then until now? Did you just dig a little deeper and look at more stats? Or was it other projections that changed your opinion?

  36. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Cheese: I reevaluated in the offseason. And to be more specific, I saw that his fly balls went down while his home runs per fly ball nearly doubled. That gives me real pause.

  37. Steve says:
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    @Grey: @Stephen: I’m weak (sob), so, so weak.

    Even Bubs has more willpower than me when it comes to this league.

    (I’m only up to Season 2, so no spoilers, if you’re responding to that previous remark, please)

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Aw, sookie. You’re in Ziggy territory now. Man, I wish I could watch that show again for the first time.

  39. Dylan says:
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    @Grey I googled it. Lies! All lies!

  40. Probable Party Starter says:
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    I was all set for Hill’s explosion…then he got concussed and ruined it for me. Being the grudge-holder that I am, I avoided his treats he gave last season. At least I had BRoberts…way too soon. I hate you A Hill.

  41. giant JJ says:
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    grey, your tier rankings have clusters of players tiered by power, speed, age, etc. i am hoping to see your tier rankings in the order that you like the players so i can use that sheet at my draft.

  42. matthole says:
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    @Grey: Rd 8. Do you take nathan, pap, mo, broxton if one is there. Or do you take your SP2 maybe even your SP1 in either Hamels, Nolasco, Kershaw, beckett, hanson?

    which do you prioritize, sound front end starters or that anchor for a closer.

  43. brad says:
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    Grey, Yahoo has Votto at 25. Now, I like Votto as much as the next guy, but it’s hard for me to justify grabbing him that high, especially when Morneau (for example) is ranked at 53. I’m wondering if you’ve got enough love for Votto to get him in the mid 20s. Do ya?

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @giant JJ: I use the tiers the way I have them and my top 300. Look at the top 300 for actual order.

    @matthole: I take a starter before closers.

    @brad: It would be hard for me to reach into the 2nd round for Votto. But it would also be hard for me to not have a 1st baseman. If Morneau, Youkilis or A-Gon are around, I’d let someone else reach for Votto.

  45. giant JJ says:
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    o.k. if that’s the way you do it i’ll have to live with that. i prefer to cross off players at the draft from a position ranked sheet. p.s. you’re the best.

  46. brad says:
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    @Grey: Thanks Grey. I agree, don’t want to get stuck looking at an empty 1B and Derek Lee the best option left.

  47. brad says:
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    @giant JJ: if i’m not wrong there’s a spreadsheet with Grey’s rankings available. you could use that to sort by position probably.

  48. Tony says:
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    @PJtres: wait a month, then offer for TULO, he’ll slump bad, then you can buy low…. maybe.

    @Probable Party Starter: i did the same damn thing with hell, my mistake was telling another guy in my money league to pick him up and deal kendrick? wtf was i thinking?

    @Grey: grey where’s the earliest you’d take reyes? I’m assuming it would have to be your 3rd round pick? What spot do you think you’d have to be in to get that? early 3rd?

    He’s ranked SUPER LOW in yahoo…. i think he might come back around to me. Who knows though, just “strategerizing”.

  49. Tony says:
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    pheww went with a 12 pack and the 90 proof vodka tonight… there may be a lengthy post/rant coming, and the wife went shopping… uh oh, i wont drink it all, or even half, not an alky, i swear? teacher!

  50. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Tony: i here ya tony,i dont know why everyone thinks i am either

  51. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    Insignificant item of the day: ESPN changing S. Sizemore to 2B eligibility from initial SS. (Borbon gets OF/DH, not 1B. Grey was right–for once. :-) )

  52. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: I’d take him late 2nd round.

    @Simply Fred: Did you ever find out the Utility man getting 1st base eligibility issue?

  53. Tony says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: LOL i dont know AL….KOHOLIC.

    @Grey: Ya he’s basically on my DO NOT DRAFT list in the 2nd round but at Yahoo he’s ranked so late, they’re really EFFFF’ing my world up. Having Reyes and Reynolds so late is givng them great value…. ughhhh, grrrr, ughhhhh, GRRRRRRRR….

  54. BigFatHippo says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Some of us here have seen you in action…………

  55. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Grey: I think that answered by the DH, not 1B, status. I was speculating that if he were to get 1B eligibility, he would then get CI. Didn’t bother to ask about CI once they confirmed no 1B. (they didn’t mention what Derrick was doing for the 5 minutes that he was “checking with his boss” :-) )

  56. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @BigFatHippo: oh yeah,tell me about it,i cant remember

  57. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Tony: @AL KOHOLIC: I once saw him fighting a guy WHO WASN’T EVEN THERE…………..

  58. Tony says:
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    @BigFatHippo: wow i’m drinking and i got lost trying to read back…. you saw who fight what?

    I am doing a mock right now, didn’t take my first pitcher til the 13th, wow….. wht an experience… david price is my ace? then i took jorge of the roses, sanchez, and neftali….. still more to come…. brett anderson went in the 9th? maybe the 10th… wow can we talk about overhyped, in ROTO maybe he’s a better grab, but in my H2H league NO WAY.

  59. Tony says:
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    and homer bailer rounds out my 5 SP’s….

    but my offense is STACKED with ian stewart, snider, and everth on my bench…. the rest of the team is filled out, maybe shoulda taken a better SP somewhere and passed on an OF’er or something!

  60. hey grey do you think a league set up would be better if I use On-base percentage instead of batting ave

  61. Pirate Jesus says:
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    What kind of OF do you think a package of Ichiro and Scherzer should net in a 12-team 5×5 keeper?

  62. Steve says:
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    @Grey: What’s the thinking there? Had you pegged as an obp kind of guy. My h2h league has both. Not whining, just stating a fact ;)

  63. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I don’t think it’s worse either. It’s just different. I prefer to evaluate players based on OBP and would happily be in an OBP league, but I don’t think there’s as much attention given to OBP as a stat in advice/newspapers/TV. So it sometimes makes things more difficult.

  64. Eddy says:
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    Grey in a team with Longoria, Tex, Lind and Grandy, would BJ Upton be an ideal 3rd OF or would you prefer a Nelson Cruz over him?

  65. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Prefer Upton.

  66. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    Thanks, and I have a couple more questions.

    Which OF would you prefer,

    1)Holliday, Werth, and Granderson
    or
    2) Upton, Lind, Granderson

    And I picked up Beltran in the 11th round earlier today, does that sound like good value?

  67. Eddy says:
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    @Eddy:
    That’s J-Upside btw, not BJ

  68. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Beltran in the 11th sounds fine. Still would like to know more about his health. I’d take 1. outfield.

  69. The Dude says:
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    @Grey: Being in an OBP league myself, I’ve noticed that *some* of the other owners tend to use the standard AVG rankings when evaluating players rather than adjusting for OBP.

    This is evidence to your point about having less attention on the stat. But, the beauty of it is that it’s a weakness on the part of other owners that can be exploited. You just need to be aware of how OBP changes the value of certain players.

    In some cases it greatly increases value (Adam Dunn) and in others it decreases their value (Robinson Cano). Knowing this and using it to your advantage is reason enough to use OBP over AVG imo.

  70. I liked Hill as a sleeper last year, but agree that he’s now overrated. Plus, I don’t really like the Toronto lineup that much this year.
    On to my own interests, FantasyGameday.net will be hosting two mock drafts next week on Mock Draft Central. First is on Wednesday at 8 PM EST:
    FGD Mock Draft #5
    Second is on Thursday, again at 8 PM EST:
    FGD Mock Draft #5A
    Password for both is FGD2010 Everyone is welcome,and I will write it up on our site over the weekend. Until ESPN gets it’s mock draft application up, come join us to get a feel for the ADPs and check out other drafter’s strategies.

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