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Hey, I’m drafting my fantasy baseball team on March 4th and I got the first pick!  Woo-Hoo!  I got A-Rod! Sorry, random italicized voice, you’re going to need to rethink some things.  There’s some injury news.  The 2009 fantasy baseball rankings have been updated.  A-Rod is no longer your number one fantasy baseball pick for 2009.  Hanley Ramirez is currently wearing the laurels and being fitted for the toga.  A-Rod’s hip surgery will have him out until May.  So what does this do for A-Rod for 2009 fantasy baseball?

Now A-Rod goes from a precarious number one overall to a tentative 2nd rounder and a very confident 3rd rounder.  Think about the replacement 3rd baseman you can have for a month and then fill-in A-Rod in May.  Say Sandoval at 3rd base for April, move Sandoval to catcher (if eligible) in May and then slot in A-Rod the rest of the way.  You’re getting 5/6 A-Rod, 1/6 Sandoval.  It’s early-March.  The season is looooooong — yes, seven oh’s.  A-Rod will be out until May/June.  He’s not someone to avoid completely, but he does need to be discounted.  This WILL (caps for emphasis and the people reading over your shoulder) hurt his steals a bit.  Hip surgery can’t be a good thing for speed.  It is a tough pick.  Like Pujols last year.  Or trading for Manny sometime in June last year when he looked washed-up.  Pujols won the MVP and Manny nearly did in two and a half months.  Think of A-Rod as Longoria last year or Braun two years ago, only you know more what to expect from A-Rod.

UPDATE:  The more I thought about this, and the more that came out about A-Rod, I realized I wouldn’t draft him until at least the 40th pick.  There’s just too much speculation about when he’ll be healthy again.  A-Rod is now 40th on the top 100 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  The top 10 has also been updated.

From Around The Web

  1. Tony says:
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    One guy in my 12 team keeper has AROD and PUJOLS as his keepers (we ONLY keep 2). When healthy thats unreal, but with this happening and Pujols’s elbow, shoulder, (roids), who knows…. I like it. Alot of potential with alot of risk. What if something doesn’t go to schedule with rehab, etc….. U-G-L-Y

  2. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: I wouldn’t want that kind of risk from my only two keepers.

  3. sean says:
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    Talk about being deflated after thinking I stole A-Rod with the fifth pick last night…

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: In a real draft or a mock?

  5. As we chatted about yesterday, I was pretty much set going into my keeper league draft with keepers of: Reyes, AROD, Hamels and Peavy. AROD being out for 10 weeks is a set back but it’s a long season so I’m going to try not to panic and do anything drastic. I’m just going to hope he comes back healthy.

  6. sean says:
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    Real.

    I did take a last round flier on McPherson. Atkins is my CI, so I’m pretty flexible. Adrian Gonzalez is my 1B.

    Swisher, Kotchman, Blake, Mora, Lowell, and Kouzmanoff are still available as replacements…

  7. Billy says:
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    i guess everyone that has him will just need to ride this out and pray for a speedy recovery…

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Kerel Cooper: That’s the best thing you can do. You’ll be happy in mid-May when you have 4 months of A-Rod to look forward to.

    @sean: Atkins is good to have in this situation. I would switch McPherson out with Mora, Blake, Kouz, in that order, because you want to have a bit more flexibility. Don’t panic though, see my comment above.

    @Billy: It’s scary rooting for A-Rod, but I guess it needs to be done if you own him.

  9. GasTheObese says:
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    $10 says the cyst is really being removed from his butt cheek.

  10. Thanks for the quick turnaround and analysis Grey. Now if only this shit had broke before I took him #1 overall in the RCL draft.

    Well hell. Looks like 1/6 Blalock/DeRosa (shudder) and 5/6 A-Rod for me. Sigh.

  11. get figgy with it says:
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    this is why you don’t draft until as close to the start of the season as possible

  12. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GasTheObese: Ha!

    @Fman99: The positive thing is Blalock should stay healthy for at least a month. That’s not actually that bad of a replacement set for a month.

  13. Just Another Steve says:
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    So, A-Roid can now testify to the dangers of being a bottom?

  14. EricB says:
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    Anyone know why the CHONE projections for Javier Vazquez are so weird. They’ve got him pitching 196 Innings, 200 Strikeouts, 1.15 WHIP, and 3.26 ERA, with 14 wins. The innings, Ks, and wins are believable. The WHIP is a stretch. The ERA is ridiculous. He’s near the top of all starting pitchers. Anyone know why it’s so out of whack?

  15. Steve says:
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    Who’s that other Steve?

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: What’s on 2nd?

  17. Just Another Steve says:
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    I don’t know!

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
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    BTW, is it just me or is it weird ESPN Deportes broke this story? Was it Pedro Gammons?

  19. Eric W says:
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    Wow great timing got my first real draft of the year tonight. I am no doctor but 10 weeks seems like a quick recovery time

  20. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eric W: It does seem a bit quick, but when you have A-Rod staring at you in the late 2nd, early 3rd round remember that the season is seven oh’s long.

  21. Dave says:
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    I know DeRosa is gettin a little long in the tooth but i think he is going to have a great year… is this crazy thinking?? Can not be as crazy as reading grey’s kissing Mattys butt!! We kid because we care.

  22. Billy says:
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    I am absolutely rooting for Arod, I have tex and Arod on my team. i might be in trouble… Tex has no protection now….

  23. Steve says:
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    @Grey: I wish I’d thought of it. Just Another Steve has already been funnier in two comments than I have in over 1100.

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Dave: I wouldn’t think DeRosa could substitute in for A-Rod, but if he has a good April like he did last year, he could be a good temp.

    @Billy: Just fill-in for A-Rod with someone for the time being, when they’re both playing you’ll be fine.

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: It did seem slightly out of character.

  26. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Ha!

    I got it in the end, though.

    As it were.

    Oofa!

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: There’s Steve!

  28. James says:
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    As a Yankees fan, I am not worried about this injury because you just have to hope for the best at this point. Nady, who was once the baseball america’s number one 3rd baseman, will hopefully step in and do the perform well until Arod is back. We are stuck with Arod, and there is nothing we can do except hope for the best.

    As a fantasy owner, and remembering I have a choice whether he is on my team or not, I will stay away. I don’t care what kind of discount you are giving me on either. I never bought into the Aroid chants hurting ARod since he deals those distractions everywhere he goes, but combining this with his hip injury could really hinder him. Let someone else worry about him, and pick someone without concerns.

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: I’ve heard Ransom, Berroa or someone the Yankees throw money at to fill-in. I think the last option is the most likeliest.

  30. sean says:
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    I’ve heard that the Yanks are talking with Seattle to get Beltre. Guh.

  31. James says:
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    Apparently, it isn’t 100% that Arod will have to have surgery. They will decide the course of action in the next three to four days, and haven’t ruled out rest/rehab – per John Heyman from Cash on the WFAN.

  32. peter says:
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    Rotoworld is reporting that Cashman said Rodriguez has a torn hip labrum and cyst – but will NOT be undergoing surgery. The cyst has been drained, and he just going to rest it off.

    Is this good news for his owners? Maybe. But I’d like to draw a layman’s comparison to how the Dodgers handled Furcal’s back injury last season. They hoped rest would be enough. It wasn’t, and by the time they turned to surgery, the season was more than half-way over.

  33. James says:
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    @Grey – those are the obvious options, but they aren’t starting material. I would much rather see the Yankees try Nady at 3B in the spring since he has experience playing that position. Nady could always play the first 7 innings and then you bring in Ransom as a defensive sub. Let’s remember that Ransom has played 7 games at 3B.

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: @peter: Thanks so much for the reports!

    I think this puts him firmly in the same place I moved him to. He’s a risky pick, a late 2nd rounder, early 3rd rounder. In some ways, I like him a bit more now (now he seems very similar to Pujols last year), and in some ways I dislike him more now for reasons Peter discussed.

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: I agree, Nady’s a much more interesting idea, but with a $200 million+ payroll the Yanks don’t usually go for interesting. I really think they go after someone else if A-Rod is indeed in jeopardy of being out. Beltre is an obvious choice for the Yanks.

  36. James says:
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    @Peter – A torn labrum usually has to be fixed by surgery. I would be concerned that this will linger as the season goes on if it isn’t fixed. Thus, I agree they should fix it now.

  37. James says:
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    According to Cashman, “… he will need surgery eventually.”

  38. Steve says:
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    @James: @Grey: We need Disabled List Informer-guy to weigh in here.

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I emailed him.

  40. James says:
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    @Grey – I have to agree with you there. I have no confidence in Brian Cashman.

    No doubt, ill add anything else that comes down today.

  41. big o says:
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    someone on espn had a-rod at 32 and atkins being acquired …. but that was 2-3 hours ago .

  42. James says:
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    Final post on Arod:
    There are two options for Arod right now:
    1. Surgery would put him out of your lineup for a period of 4 months. He would probably be back on your team after the All-star Break in July at the latest (barring any setback obviously).
    2. He “mans up” and plays through it.

    From listening to everything today, I can tell you that he needs surgery to fix this problem. If the decision is option 1 he will probably be back to being Arod for you and I suggest drafting him at a discount. If the decision is option 2 he will probably go the route of Mike Lowell. He had the same injury last year, and degenerated as the season went on.*

    Therefore, I believe the Yankees will go with option 1. The talk about option 2 could be a way to soften any team attempting to hold the Yankees to the fire in a trade scenario.

    *Mike Lowell
    Pre Allstar – 290 ABs 43/13/57/.297
    Post Allstar – 129 ABs 15/4/16/.225

  43. Just Another Steve says:
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    White Sox would probably trade Betemit back to the Yanks, but there’s no way we’re taking Swisher back!

  44. Kevin says:
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    It is crazy how shallow 3rd base has become this year. This sends David Wright’s value through the roof if you ask me. I can make an easy case for him being #1 overall. BTW I would like to hear from Will Carroll on what the recovery is on this before declaring him a second or third rounder.

  45. sugarshane024 says:
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    From a fantasy baseball perspective, the injury to A-R*d no longer makes the 5th pick in the draft a commodity. In my opinion, it actually devalues the 5th pick significantly because now you’re having to “stretch” for someone like Sizemore or Cabrera or Braun.

    With A-R*d’s injury, you’re now shooting to be in the top 4 spots rather than just the top 5. Who becomes the 5th pick? According to MDC, it’s likely to be Sizemore. Also according to MDC, this would make Howard a first-rounder on average assuming A-R*d falls to Round Two.

    From a purely baseball perspective, how is this injury to A-R*d any different than the one to Mike Lowell? Lowell had offseason surgery and is still recovering; it’s been something like four months. How would A-R*d be able to return to action in 10 weeks following surgery for a seemingly similar injury?

  46. Freak says:
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    The reports are that he’s going to not get surgery and take a month off then see where he is.

    So he could be back near the start of the season or he could find out then he has to get surgery and be out 4 months after that.

  47. Freak says:
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    Also: Chase Utley had this injury last year and played through it. Food for thought.

  48. papasmurf says:
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    I think AROD is probably gonna get the surgery because if he has it now or soon, he gets to miss 3-4 fewer weeks of the season. Cashman might be bluffing that AROD is gonna play thru it because he might be working on a deal for a 3b. Will the Yankz really risk losing their best player for the playoffs?

  49. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Freak: I tend to agree with you. I think A-Rod plays reasonably well (which is still better than most) then has the surgery in November.

    @papasmurf: I think they’re talking about him being out for 10 weeks, not 3-4 if he has it. The thing that’s got me tripped up is A-Rod seems like conditioning freak. Like he works out every day. How does this just become a problem in March? I think it potentially wasn’t a problem until recently so that means it’s not as bad as it could be, so he can play through it for six months with rest here and there, cortisone shots here and there and be 80% the player he is, which is still good. This is all conjecture on my part.

  50. Tony says:
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    @Grey: cortisone, steroids, he’ll be fine…..

  51. sean says:
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    @grey: this is a strange injury for a position player to have. I know that it’s more common to hockey players (Gaborik especially), and that it can continue to be nagging even after the surgery (Gaborik II). I totally agree with you that it’s so odd that he only just discovered it this week. Can it be all that painful for a guy who just has to hang out at 3B, belt HRs, and jog around the bases? If he plays through it, I could see it affecting his singles average slightly and his SBs, but not his power. A-Rod playing through it probably gives you Aramis Ramirez, so I think your drop in the rankings is right on.

  52. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    If Arod has early surgury, how much to discount Teixeira (without Arod’s protection)?

  53. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Johnny: That’s brilliant. That’s like last year when Hater Bell pointed out that ESPN had Jeter overrated then wrote a post to not overrating him. He’s overrated because you overrated him! Ugh. That annoys me. “There’s too much about A-Rod out there…” You’re writing it!

    @sean: Right, how does a guy do intense offseason workouts for four months then hurt himself jogging to first? It’s not like he’s Manny who was playing Wii for 4 months.

    @Fred Barker: Might lose a sliver of value, I’m not too worried about.

    EDIT: Typo. Word.

  54. James says:
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    Utley hurt his shoulder in the Philly winter work out program. The peak of his pain happened in July and he hit 10 homers from July to the end of the season. That is about a six to eight month period before Utley started to hurt badly and struggle.

    Arod had problem with his hip going back to last year. Thus, he probably will start to struggle a lot sooner than Utley did and the comparison might not be warranted.

  55. James says:
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    Should read Utley hurt his hip…

  56. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: That’s fair. The key is when will A-Rod’s peak of his pain occur. I’d have to assume it’s not now if he wants to play through it.

  57. advocate says:
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    @grey,
    sorry this is so late…i think arod just *ucked me, i’m in a new keeper this year and have the number 8 pick. i originally saw him going in the top 2 or 3 (if not 1) and i kind of like where i stood for the eigth pick where i was targeting a guy like cabrera, sizemore or braun. any of those that were left when i pick feels like a win, but now if everyone passes on arod what route would you go?…howard, arod at 8 (considering its a keeper league) or look at utley, rollins, kinsler, etc…even longoria? just need some advice…thanks.

  58. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @advocate: Howard, Utley, Tex, in that order.

  59. advocate says:
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    thanks.

  60. papasmurf says:
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    @Grey:

    Yes, the talk is that the surgery will put him out about 3-4 months. What I meant is that if he has it now, the first 3 weeks or so he misses is in spring training, so he misses 3 fewer weeks of the season than he would otherwise miss if he waited to get the surgery. If he tries to play through this and finally has to go under the knife in June, he’s done even for the playoffs.

    I was listening to the local beat reporter on the radio. He said that even last year, some people were noticing AROD was having problem opening up during ABs. However, Cashman said that AROD never complained about it (or else it would have been discovered sooner-maybe even at the end of last year).

  61. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @papasmurf: Yeah, gotcha. That’s interesting update about the beat writer, thanks!

  62. papasmurf says:
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    Unless AROD and the Yankz are messing with our heads again, he has decided to go under the knife now. Gotta hate the Yankz and AROD too, since he plays for them.

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