Comments on: A New Way To Test Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings

By: The Talented Mr. Dope Man

The Talented Mr. Dope Man — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 20:11:33 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, thanks , i decided to go with steamers. i dont like the fact that zips doesn’t take playing time into consideration.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 17:37:00 +0000

@The Talented Mr. Dope Man, I haven’t tested all the systems. All I can say is I’m using 50/50 ZiPs and Steamer for 2012 Point Shares.

By: The Talented Mr. Dope Man

The Talented Mr. Dope Man — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 17:16:55 +0000

Rudy – got drafts this weekend. interested in whose rankings you would suggest for hitters? The fangraphs articles seem to suggest Oliver. I was hoping for some free projections. lmk

By: BigA

BigA — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 05:08:11 +0000

@Rudy Gamble,
Ahem…patiently waiting for those AL only pointshares. Hope your league went well. Need them for my Friday auction…

By: Awesomus Maximus

Awesomus Maximus — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 02:47:13 +0000

@JoeC, At least the comments were an interesting read. If he was this lame on his previous site, it’s sad that ESPN felt the need to buy him. And if he used to actually be funny, it’s sad what an enormous corporate sellout he’s become.

One of the later comments about it being a “Frank from Blue Velvet” style interview was hilarious.

By: JoeC

JoeC — Wed, 28 Mar 2012 00:40:38 +0000

@Awesomus Maximus, Just for reference, here’s the MB interview that started it all:

http://razzball.com/matthew-berry-razzball-interview/

By: Awesomus Maximus

Awesomus Maximus — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 23:49:38 +0000

@JoeC, Well, I guess he’s known ’round these parts, but this was my first run in with him. Can’t believe he actually gets paid for that tripe. I’ve read Facebook status updates that were less self-absorbed and way more interesting.

By: uncdrew

uncdrew — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 21:55:15 +0000

@Rudy Gamble,

Thank you for the reply. It’s good for you guys (but bad for me) in that everyone in my league reads Razzball. So I don’t have much of an advantage.

Hell, I almost want to use ESPN’s rankings just so I’m being contrarian. I’m happy being contrarian (and actually enjoy it), but being wrong is no fun.

By: JoeC

JoeC — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 20:35:34 +0000

@Awesomus Maximus, Which is why I named my RCL league (#8) “Matthew Berry is a Tool”.

My special appreciation for Berry’s toolness came from that interview he did a few years ago with Razzball. Made himself look like a complete and utter idiot. That shoe definitely fits.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 19:53:32 +0000

If Gordon was a C, he’d be first pick overall

By: Awesomus Maximus

Awesomus Maximus — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 19:16:10 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, I’m a fan… I’m willing to base an entire draft on his brilliant analysis!

The Bourn infatuation is so nuts it’s hilarious. As someone on your podcast (I think) said, he’s pretty much Dee Gordon without the SS eligibility. Suppose he’s a second rounder, too.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 18:30:02 +0000

@ivebeenupthreedaysstraight, thanks, i think.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 18:28:42 +0000

@Awesomus Maximus, I don’t understand – so you’re saying you’re not a berry fan?

By: ivebeenupthreedaysstraight

ivebeenupthreedaysstraight — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 18:15:08 +0000

@Rudy Gamble — the dependable part about this site is the useful and hilarious baseball writing. however, the best part about this site is the occasional, full-frontal flash of genius like the one you’ve put together here… it’s like the guy at the neighbourhood pool whose speedo barely covers his enormous member randomly decides to expose himself every once in a while. you always knew what was down there, but it sure is glorious in-the-flesh. [that's a pretty foul metaphor, but it's what came to mind... and sorry for not moving on, i'm a few days overdue and decided it would be weird to post this comment after the closer report... thanks, though, either way.]

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 18:14:43 +0000

@James, i’m fine w/ the trade too. Lawrie in unkeepable at that price. Point Shares has Latos > Lawrie so there’s definitely justification for this trade even if the majority opinion is that Lawrie urinates liquid gold and poops platinum.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 17:58:12 +0000

@BWC, Yes, I know a few people who might be helpful in this regard. Only going to focus on those that released their projections publicly, though. Figure the most relevant testing for Razzball readers is projections that are readily available.

This is definitely a different type of test than I’ve seen done before. Conceptually, it could be better. We’ll see. Biggest challenge is how statistically confident the differences are b/w the sources i compare. This first test worked out well (in terms of a clear ‘winner’). We’ll see going forward….

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 17:52:40 +0000

@BWC, Yes, makes sense. That’s my assumption for ESPN’s player rater methodology.

By: BWC

BWC — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 17:37:42 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, I’m sure someone at insidethebook will help provide projections. This method is good and better than the challenges that Tango devised (in large part because you have access to so many leagues for data)

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 17:34:06 +0000

@BWC, I’d have to think through the remaining ~35%. I don’t think luck is a main component – I think the next analysis on rankings will show that a lot of luck falls under this 60-65%. Trades have some value but that also taps into the 65% – e.g., easier to trade if you drafted a lot of good assets. But if you can change junk to jewels, then totally. I think FA pickups play a big component but not sure how to estimate it.

I’ll be testing the pre-season rankings next…after that, i’d probably look to test projections through Point Shares (with the playing time estimations I had as of late March 2011). Will have to ask around though about getting those projections..

By: Awesomus Maximus

Awesomus Maximus — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 17:09:47 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, I’d never read him before, so I decided to give him a shot. The non-fantasy stuff was boring and self-indulgent (“my Facebook page,” “my Lakers tickets,” “dinner with my wife”). Can you imagine writing a page worth of content that has nothing to do with FBB and is just all about your personal life?

The FBB stuff was uninspired and naive. “ESPN’s Player Rater tells me Michael Bourn is better than Pujols and Miggy and etc.” Well, how come you have those guys as 1st round picks and Bourn as a 2nd round pick? How can you be so blissfully unaware that a steals-only guy is easier to replace than a 5-cat guy?

“Carl Crawford was excellent for a long time. So he got old and collapsed and injured his wrist. He’s still Carl Crawford.” Well, A-Rod was the best for a long time. So he got injured and got old and started dating Ellen DeGeneres. He’s still A-Rod.

Actually, I didn’t read enough… he may very well have A-Rod amongst the players he loves. Wouldn’t surprise me. I’m tempted to join an ESPN public league and draft based only on his advice just to see how awful it does. I will name the team “Dingle Berry’s Loves” and hope that it at least provides enough fodder for an end-of-season article.

By: byrone

byrone — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 15:26:43 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, no prob dude.

lulz, u haven’t heard of any of those bands, huh? based on what you mentioned seeing at sx on the podcast, yeah, ur taste is kinda mainstream… i bet you’d like real estate, they’re pretty accessible. check em out sometime!

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 14:15:46 +0000

Sorry all who have posted their rosters – swamped with work and can’t reply. Please repost in Grey’s latest post.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 13:58:58 +0000

@The Talented Mr. Dope Man, When I test projections, I’ll be testing Steamer. The next test involves rankings/$ values and Steamer didn’t do that in 2011.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 13:58:03 +0000

@byrone, it might be a while before i go to any shows after the SXSW deluge haven’t heard of any of those bands though i’ve been to all those venues before. thanks for the offer though!

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 13:56:43 +0000

@Awesomus Maximus, Was expecting people to just do a CTRL-F (or Command-F for Mac peeps) for Bourn

By: The Talented Mr. Dope Man

The Talented Mr. Dope Man — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 13:46:05 +0000

@ Rudy,

For your next test can you input Steamer projections as well?

By: byrone

byrone — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 13:30:13 +0000

rudy! that’s a lot of math, holmes.

so i heard on the podcast the other day that ur from austin- me too, hollerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. just wanted to let you know my upcoming shows in april, in case you wanna meet up for a beer and rock out or whatever:

4/11: real estate @ mohawk (might stay for keep shelly in athens)
4/12: terry malts @ mohawk
4/14: frankie rose, DIVE @ red 7
4/17: chairlift @ mohawk
4/18: hunx and his punx, natural child @ mohawk
4/27-29: psych fest @ emo’s east/beauty ballroom

get back to me if ur gonna be at any of those, i’ll give u my cell#. later dude!

By: BWC

BWC — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 13:25:02 +0000

@Blue. I don’t think anyone doing Z-scores is using position specific SDs. They’d likely use SDs for the entire likely player pool (should be historical SDs, might just use Projected SDs). They’d also use the entire likely player pools average when calculating SD’s but that gets cancelled out when you calculate the replacement player (after taking account MI, CI, and Util) so really you end up with SDs above the replacement level player in the position.

By: BWC

BWC — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 13:21:53 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, And you’d say the other 35% of final points success is coming from in-league management (picking up good hitters/closers, streaming pitchers, trades, and luck?) I can’t think of any biases that would benefit point shares in correleating with those factors, so that’s good. So far, I like the way this analysis is going, I think the next step will be interesting (I’m assuming you’ll analyze the success of the different methods and then the various projection systems being run through those methods to rank both method and projection systems when using pre-season projections). I’m looking forward to it.

By: polo

polo — Tue, 27 Mar 2012 08:20:38 +0000

Hey Rudy – thanks so much for point shares. Really helped through this 1st auction. Can you comment on draft and answer a question?

10 team 6×6

r, rbi, sb, tb, obp, slg
c mesoraco
1 hosmer
2 phillips
3 longoria
ss d gordon
of m kemp
of bj upton
of c. young
util m reynolds
util bourjos
util gardner
bn c. rasmus
bn j montero

sv, hld, era, whip, k/9, qs
sp cliff lee
sp matt latos
sp b beachy
rp storen
rp h street
rp motte
p a chapman
p s romo
p j broxton
p jim johnson
bn m sherzer
bn ani sanchez
bn matt moore

okay, or 2 lite in the OF/Util?

okay to drop k/9 killer jim johnson and his saves
for jose veras and his holds?