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The Padres finally put their offense on the offensive.  Only here the offensive definition is “causing anger, displeasure or resentment.”  Thanks, Merriam-Webster!  Adrian Gonzalez gets a small boost in value, if ‘small’ meant ‘could there be a better place for him to play?’  You don’t have to be a rocket scientist who gave up his job at JPL to study baseball stats to see the difference between Petco and Fenway.  In Fenway, there’s a giant freakin’ wall 310 feet down the line.  In Petco, there’s a memorial park in left field with a giant Nate Colbert statue that no one’s ever reached.  Wait, that was Kyle Blanks.  Last year, Fenway was 7th for most offense.  Petco was 26th.  I think A-Gon’s Home/Away splits over the last three years say all you need to know.  In 832 home ABs, 112/37/127/.257.  In 927 away ABs, 168/70/192/.310.  Yes, A-Gon can win the MVP in Boston.  I’m not going to belabor (any further) this point.  It’s a huge boon for A-Gon’s value if boon means what I think it does.  Youuuuk gets a small boost in value too now that he’ll be playing 3rd base, eligibility he was about to lose going into 2011.  Anyway, here’s some more recent moves and what they mean for fantasy baseball:

Casey Kelly – The prized piece in the A-Gon trade.  Stephen already went over his Casey Kelly fantasy.  Now that he gets to (eventually) pitch in Petco, his value bumps up, but he still looks at least a year away, if not more.  There’s probably at least three dozen prospects worth looking at before him in dynasty leagues.  There’s a few pitchers in the Padres system alone that are more interesting, in the short term at least.

Kyle Blanks – Looks to be the replacement for Adrian Gonzalez at 1st base and in the lineup, but he “won’t be ready until well after the season starts,” according to the Padres.  When he does return, Blanks could add some power for deep leagues, but his average will be less impressive.  Unless Blanks goes to the plate with David Eckstein in a Baby Bjorn and he tells him what to swing at.

Adam Dunn – Takes his blue ox and heads to the South Side of Chicago.  In related news, the White Sox equipment manager was seen surfing the web for ways to reinforce a wooden bench.  “I’ll tell you what, sonny.  This eHow is the bomb dot com!”  That’s what he said.  Last year, U.S. Cellular Field produced more “You can put it on the board”s than any other stadium.  Wasn’t far off in 2009 and 2008.  Whereas Nationals Park was either average or below average for home runs.  I was going to give Dunn 38 home runs for 2011, this gets him to 40 again.  Don’t think he suddenly becomes a 45-homer guy though.  I mean, he was consistently a 40-homer guy in Great American and that’s a hitter-friendly environment.

Jayson Werth – Signed with the Nats.  Citizens Flank is obviously better for Werth than The House of Strasburg.  Hitting in a lineup with Utley, Howard and Rollins is better than Zimmerman and that guy who plays 1st and that other guy that plays in the outfield.  He has hit well in Nationals Park, he was also facing Nationals pitching.  I was worried Werth would go somewhere to hurt his value and he didn’t disappoint me, which is to say he did.  Zimmerman had 68 runs last year batting third.  Werth had 99 runs batting 5th.  Who’s knocking in Werth in 2011?  Shave some home runs, RBIs, a bunch of runs, some average… Shoot, if he hits 25 home runs and a .275 average with weak runs, I’d be impressed.  Oh, and from a real baseball perspective?  7 years?!

Aaron Harang – Me on December 2nd, “I wouldn’t own Harang in any league unless he pitched in Petco.”  Me on December 3rd, “Score one for the Hodgepadres!”

Jason Varitek – Nooooooo!  Didn’t I just say Saltymochachino was a sleeper?  Why would you sign Varitek?  Ugh.  The good news is Varitek is far from an everyday catcher at this stage in his career, so if Salty can hit his weight on Jupiter than he should see the majority of the ABs.

Hisanori Takahashi – Signed by the Angels.  There’s some rumblings that he’ll be the closer down in Bobby Grichville.  Yeah, you ever see the Sciosciapath make things easy?  Until I hear different from the Los Angeles Suburb of Los Angeles, Rodney will be in the running for saves.

Bobby Jenks – Out as the White Sox closer because the equipment manager can only reinforce so much.  “I’m only one man!”  That’s him again.  Right now, the White Sox closer role is an open audition.  Maybe they can invite Eric Roberts.  He’s always super believable.  Thornton, Santos and Sale are a few possibilities.  In that order.

Ryan Theriot – Heads to the Cardinals.  And I have nothing interesting to say about this.  He’s a 3 homer, 20 steal guy.  If that gives you an erection for longer than ten minutes, you might want to seek out a doctor.

Miguel Tejada – Here’s the by product of Sabean winning a World Series.  He thinks he knows what he’s doing.

Jose Lopez – Damn you, Rockies!  I already wrote a stupid Eric Young Jr. sleeper post.  I’m probably going to still post it.  Or maybe I’ll hold it like I did the Chris Iannetta sleeper post from last year.  Expect that any day now, unless the Rockies sign a different catcher, which they’re wont to do.  They’re wont!  Lopez will probably steal time from Young and Ian Stewart.  Hopefully, he steals more time from Stewart.  Or we can hope Lopez gets hurt in Spring Training.

Shaun Marcum – Blue Kays traded him to the Brewers.  Or, “Zoinks!”  Maybe they thought the Brewers had Greinke.  Beats me.  Either way, Marcum really is getting a sleeper post.  Love this move for his fantasy value.  I really love this move because it came at a time when everyone was ooh’ing and ah’ing over A-Gon so the average fantasy person isn’t going to make much notice of it.  Good stuff all around.  He was a 7.60 K/9 last year in the AL East.  In the NL Central, he can easily go over 8 K/9.  His walks were a minuscule 1.98 per 9.  His xFIP was below 4.  You’re suddenly looking at a fantasy number two starter next year with the chance for more.  All aboard!  Next stop, fantasy value-ville.

Brett Lawrie – Going the other way to socialized medicine is Lawrie.  Stephen went over his Brett Lawrie fantasy already.  Could develop into a 20 homer hitter in the majors and has shown speed already.  He looks like he can be something special and will definitely be on radars for September call-ups in 2011.  I don’t think he breaks camp with the club.

Lance Berkman – Welcome to St. Louis, Guy Who Looks Like He Could Be the Host of Man vs. Food’s Father.  Against righties he should bat between Pujols and Holliday and, well, that’s about all the positives I have for you.  Not to mention, I’m not sure how much of a positive that is since it wasn’t like he became a beast like Tre from Top Chef:  All Stars after he started batting in the Yankee lineup.  Last year, his fly balls went down (literally!), ground balls went up (not literally!), his HR/FB last year was off his career average, but I’m not sure we should expect a huge bounce back.  To quote Cliff’s uncle, Frank Lee, “His skills are declining.”

81 Responses

  1. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Grey: Calling Dr. Grey (isn’t this site Grey’s Anatomy?). Any incite as to the impact of the shoulder surgery on Agonz? Will spring training provide a good indication? (Generally, don’t pay much attention, but in the case of coming back…?)

  2. Doug Ault says:
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    I hope the Jays keep Lawrie, while it may push the ultimate playoff goal back a year, Greinke scares me, and from what I hear many things scare him

  3. Al Swedgin says:
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    Just because gossip is more fun than anything else, the rumor mill is circulating the following: the Jays picked up Lawrie in order to deal him (with Drabek?) to the Royals for Zach Greinke.

    The 2013 Royals sounds better and better!

  4. Elijah says:
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    Real Baseball Perspectives? Obviously I’ve been hanging around here too much (Borrows Steve’s Emoticon).

  5. DrEasy says:
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    Cliff’s sister, Ginger Lee, added that she didn’t like Berkman’s base-running either.

  6. Elijah says:
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    “Aaron Harang – Me on December 2nd, “I wouldn’t own Harang in any league unless he pitched in Petco.” Me on December 3rd, “Score one for the Hodgepadres!””

    Score one for December Grey! Still waiting on the verdict from March Grey before saying I do.

  7. Al Swedgin says:
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    @Doug Ault: Oops, looks like you beat me to the rumor mill by 2 minutes, Doug. Damn this slow pony!

  8. Elijah says:
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    I see Grey had the same ‘Schwing’ response to Marcum to Brewville. I must be catching on. That is, Grey’s contagious. In a really fine platonic way that is; not a ‘he rolled West Hollywood with Motley Crue’s Houris sorta way’.

  9. Steve says:
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    Obviously Washington didn’t feel like it was done bailing out Philadelphia.

  10. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey: I know you love EYjr’s SB possibilities at 2B but aren’t you selling Lopez a bit short? Look at 2008-9. Averaged 21 HRs and over 90 RBIs in Seattle. Translate that into Coors numbers and it doesn’t look half bad for a guy hitting behind Tulo, Little Pony, and MMD. I’m not thrilled with his OBP. How the hell is it so consistently low with his low strikeout numbers? Anyway, you bother to see how old Lopez is? Yep. 27. Lopez and EYjr may both deserve sleeper posts. They’ll both have their chance to deliver.

    As far as Greinke goes, I don’t give him up unless I’m getting Drabek, Snider, Lawrie, and something else. His value only skyrockets as teams inch toward the trade deadline in 2011. The Royals have him wrapped up for another two years. Why would Moore be in a hurry to dump him? Well, I guess it’s a possibility that Greinke could just up and quit…..

    You argued with me this summer over whether or not Harang was ownable in Cincy, citing his 7k/9. That probably nears 8k/9 in the West. He’ll be a sneaky pick and should probably be the second Hodgepadre taken after Latos, right?

    Kyle Blanks will once again be on sleeper lists this season. I’m warning everyone right now not to believe the hype. His swing reminds me most of the dude from the Coke Zero commercial that about kills his coworker while trying to hit the pinata blindfolded. If the Padres were dumb enough to start him for a full season his numbers would look like Rob Deer’s, except with about 100 more strikeouts.

  11. Al Swedgin says:
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    Well, the Royals could use a catcher as well, and the Jays have a few of those.

  12. Alex says:
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    Does the Berkman signing effect Rasmus’ value in 11′ at all? John Jay/Berkman won’t actually take any time away from him will they?

    Also can you rank these outfielders for me; Choo, Ichiro, McCutchen and Pence.

  13. Al Swedgin says:
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    Just because gossip is more fun than anything else, the rumor mill is circulating the following: the Jays picked up Lawrie in order to deal him (with Drabek?) to the Royals for Zach Greinke.

    The 2013 Royals sounds better and better!

  14. Al Swedgin says:
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    Ugh, and now I see I’m late to the party! (Stupid lazy comment moderator).

  15. Al Swedgin says:
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    @Terrence Mann: If there were a third prospect added, I’d assume it’d be a catcher, as I don’t think Wil Myers is staying there, and the Jays have C’s to spare.

  16. Kevin says:
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    I thought I might have a tough decision for a minute between keeping Matt Holliday or Jayson Werth next year if Werth went to BOS or NYY.

    I guess I don’t have to worry about that anymore. Adios, Werth!

  17. ScottyM says:
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    Um, that Werth deal makes the Cards look smart for signing Holliday to 7 years/120mil. I’d take Holliday too in real life or fantasy.

    Grey, how do you think the NL –> AL switch will affect the big bat veterans, Dunn & Gonzo?
    also Will Dunn return to his high OBP ways or continue down the swing more path now that he has secured a long term contract? I felt like last year he was trying to increase avg. at the detriment of his OBP in a contract year since GMs have undervalued his OBP in prior contracts. Whadyathink?

  18. Matt Crapps says:
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    “Unless Blanks goes to the plate with David Eckstein in a Baby Bjorn and he tells him what to swing at.”

    LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @simply fred: I don’t know, the Red Sox gave him a physical and traded for him so he’s probably fine, right?

    @Doug Ault: Ha

    @DrEasy: Ha!

    @Elijah: Ha!

    @Terrence Mann: As always with the Rockies, there’s just too many sleepers and not enough broth. It’s sorta like the outfield. Spilborghs or Smith would’ve been nice to own if they didn’t have each other.

    re: Coke Zero – Ha! Blanks can’t start the whole year, he’s not healthy right now.

    @Alex: Rasmus will get all his ABs. McCutchen, Choo, Pence…

    @Kevin: Yup

    @ScottyM: I didn’t say how I thought they would do in their new leagues? I don’t think Dunn’s going to change much at all.

  20. GopherDay says:
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    This is more for Stephen, because all the players are minor leaguers…But is Miguel Sano, Michael Taylor, and Tim Beckham too much for Moustakas? I have a black hole at third base in my dynasty league occupied by Cuddyer. I have a very deep outfield though, so I don’t need Taylor.

  21. GopherDay says:
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    Oh, and Mini Donkey close to being traded to the O’s.

    Grey, there going to be a mini-mini-mini-Donkey this year?

  22. jamesllegade says:
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    Grey-

    You have written many funny things… MANY.

    The image of Eckstein dangling from Blanks chest in a baby bjorn telling him what to swing at is the most funny thing ever. Officially.

  23. Stephen

    Stephen says:
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    @GopherDay: If you can keep Miguel Sano I would. However, Taylor and Beckham had off years and their value isn’t as high.

  24. Stephen

    Stephen says:
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    re: Lawrie: I really can’t believe the Brewers gave up Lawrie for Shaun Marcum. Don’t be surprised if the Jays move him to the outfield where his defensive liabilities will be reduced.

  25. Stephen

    Stephen says:
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    It’s official, the Diamondbacks traded Mark Reynolds to the Orioles for David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio – two bullpen arms. Both have 8 to 10 k/9 potential out of the ‘pen. Hernandez is the better of the two, but there really isn’t anything great for the D’backs. The Orioles seem to be pushing Josh Bell.

  26. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    In evaluating Reynolds:

    He does project to get near 40 HR and raise his average “close to” .250. Keep in mind:

    From AZ: 713 R, 691 RBI
    To BAL: 613 R, 577 RBI

    Yes, BAL dealt for him to improve those last two, but his R and RBI totals should take a significant hit, yes?

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @simply fred: I’ll have to look at it when I do the post tonight.

  28. Elijah says:
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    @simply fred:

    I dunno, everything that could go wrong seemed to go wrong in Balt last year. You’d think guys would be bouncing back this year to some extent.

  29. Jake in Columbus says:
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    I believe Youk will still be only 1B eligible in Yahoo leagues until he gets 5 starts back in at 3B. Might depress his draft value ever so slightly if your average joe isn’t following.

  30. Steve says:
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    @simply fred: @Grey: @Elijah: Those pitchers in the AL East who have incentive clauses in their contracts relating to K totals are smiling today.

  31. royce! says:
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    While I agree with Hoyer that the Gonzalez deal was a good idea, it’s a little off-putting to have you GM say that the 2010 Padres winning 90 games was “improbable.” Ouch.

    “We obviously had a great season last year, and I think that the word last year was improbable,” said Hoyer. “Our thoughts going forward is what I want to do really is build a team that has a probable chance every year of being very good.”

    http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/dec/06/hoyer-explains-gonzalez-trade-while-adrian-dons-re/

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jake in Columbus: That Joe would have to be pretty average, but yeah could happen.

    @Steve: Hehe

    @royce!: Shame with a 0-0 record the teams themselves feel like they have no chance to compete. Something really needs to be done about that.

  33. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Elijah: You might be right. 09 had them with 741 R and 708 RBI. Hmmm….

  34. Jake in Columbus says:
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    @Grey: Unfortunately, I’ve seen stuff mid-draft where people weren’t aware of the position eligibility of guys they’ve drafted. Might be time to join one of the RCLs instead of playing with friends and family.

  35. Steve says:
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    @Grey: @royce!: Dare I even mention salary cap?

  36. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Jake in Columbus: ESPN (RCL) assigns eligibility not only on GP during 2010, but also on MLB’s assigned primary position. Seems likely they will designate Youk at third for 2011.

    @Grey: include mention of who will be holding the bag (3B) for AZ next year?

  37. Jake in Columbus says:
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    @simply fred: Good to know, otherwise I’d be “that guy” instead.

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @simply fred: I was going to say they would sign a crappy, cheap 3rd base veteran and they just signed Mora so there ya go.

  39. @Grey:

    “sign a crappy, cheap 3rd base veteran”

    As good a reason as any to not bother watching this year.

    “Shame with a 0-0 record the teams themselves feel like they have no chance to compete.”

    Regardless, they obviously have the right man for the job, hes spot on correct.

  40. Steve says:
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    Hmmm. Dodgers and Brewers discussing a Prince for Loney/Broxton deal, apparently.

    Padilla being talked about as a possible closer candidate!

  41. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Steve: Really? That would be a steal of a deal for the Dodgers. Hope it ends up working out…

  42. Steve says:
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    @ThE sHiT: Who knows? Colletti has shot the rumours down, but according to ESPN ‘multiple sources’ said that talks were taking place.

  43. @Steve:

    That would be a bit of a coup for LA.

  44. @ThE sHiT:

    I guess Milwaukee decided they dont want to gamble huge money on Prince longterm.

  45. GopherDay says:
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    @Stephen: Yeah, Taylor and Bekcham’s values aren’t as high, and that’s really why I’m considering the offer.

    Do you anticipate a bounce back by either of them?

  46. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Steve: I hate ESPN and their rumors. I’ll believe it when it is official.

    @Elijah: Yeah, it seems they’re not confident in Prince being a good investment. His weight is a red flag to me, and I did own him this year in my main league. He has disappointed me twice already, so hopefully he doesn’t flop as a Dodger…

  47. I highly doubt Jarrod Saltalamacchia is going to hit 555 this year. (his weight on Jupiter)

  48. @ThE sHiT:

    I wouldn’t take that gamble if I was Milwaukee either. That being said, Loney is decidedly unexciting imo.

  49. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Phillip: Nice catch. Kind of wraps up all of my speed wishes from Santa Bill.

  50. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Elijah: Yup, and yup.

    @Joe Tall: Nerd! Joking, I’m a moron.

  51. In terms of Sabean’s decision to bring in Miguel Tejada, it wasn’t as though the Giants had a ton of options at shortstop. Uribe signed with the Dodgers for a three year deal worth $21 million. Past that, the other choices were to trade for Ryan Theriot or Jason Bartlett, neither of which were attractive options. Instead Sabean got Tejada for one year and not a whole lot of money.

  52. GopherDay says:
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    J.J. Putz signs with the Diamondbacks. That’s right, go pick him u….Its only December. How many days til pitchers and catchers report?

  53. BA says:
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    All this Red Sox news I needed to check in…
    Baltimore takes Reynolds?! Really?!
    Nobody wants to sign there and now they take super K to go up against the AL EAST. Any over/under numbers being predicted for strikeouts in 2011?

  54. BSA says:
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    just realized I came up as BA and not BSA. A little distracted right now with the Patriots and Jets.

  55. BSA says:
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    Wait – my comment under BA is under review…..Wait for it…wait for it….

  56. Steve says:
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    @BSA: Bachelor of Arts? Nothing wrong with one of those. Got one myself.

    Grey – Jets and Patriots are football.

  57. BSA says:
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    @Steve: HA – football or futball?!
    Jets are about to go on the board – I wanted a shutout.

  58. Steve says:
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    @BSA: Got away with one there.

  59. Snakes grabbing their Putz, I guess they have some bullpen now.

  60. @BA:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Reynolds has a pretty good year in Baltimore, he was hurt most of last year, he could easily hit .250 with 35 HRs and 95 RBIs.

  61. BSA says:
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    @Elijah: Where did he go in your league last year? That trade should bring him down a few pegs. Even if he gets hot there is no protection in that lineup so they can pitch around him.

  62. @BSA:

    5th round…I wouldn’t be so quick to write off the Orioles offense in general this year. I think there are some real buy low candidates for fantasy there, curious to hear December Grey’s opinion.

  63. big o says:
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    i was of the opinion that reynolds could hit the fastball .
    wrong ?

  64. @big o:

    Sure he can. The guy was hurt all season, torn thigh and then a bum thumb. I’m interested in him next year depending on where hes going in drafts, I think hes closer to 2009 than 2010. How many guys are there at 3b who you would expect to give you 35 HRs?

  65. Steve says:
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    @BSA: Your boys are playing some defence.

  66. BSA says:
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    @Steve: Defense, Offense, Special Teams.
    Up by 39 and they go for it on 4th – Definitely was personal tonight in New England.

  67. Putz looks to be the new closer, probably gonna be a nice fantasy player?

  68. According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Red Sox have a preliminary agreement with Adrian Gonzalez on a seven-year extension for $154 million.

  69. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro indicated that he’d rather have Domonic Brown begin the 2011 season at Triple-A.
    Amaro mentioned the possibility of a right field platoon involving Ben Francisco and Ross Gload and didn’t bring up Brown’s name at all. “In a perfect world, we don’t need Domonic to make our club, unless he really pushes us, unless he shows us in spring training that he’s ready to take that next step,” Amaro said

    Oh well.

  70. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Elijah: Eh, that could be a motivational tactic with Domonic. Still early in the preseason.

  71. Stephen

    Stephen says:
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    @GopherDay: Plausibly only Beckham. I was never sold on Taylor’s tools playing out, seemed like all hype to me. Great specimen, don’t get me wrong, just didn’t see him actually thriving. Plus, the A’s have no space for him.

  72. big o says:
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    8@Grey:

    1) Albert Pujols
    2) Hanley Ramirez
    3) Troy Tulowitzki
    4) Miguel Cabrera
    5) Joey Votto
    6) Ryan Braun
    7) Carlos Gonzalez
    8) Carl Crawford
    9) Evan Longoria
    10) Robinson Cano
    11) Josh Hamilton
    12) David Wright
    13) Chase Utley
    14) Alex Rodriguez
    15) Dan Uggla

    so , i take uggla /adrian with the wrap-around in this slow 15-teamer .

    i suppose i could have taken a second 1st baseman , just to throw a monkey-wrench , but what i had seriously considered was the prospect of utley/uggla ….(and not just for the double u ‘s) .
    alas .

    thoughts ?

    much appreciated .

  73. Moonlight's Grahams says:
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    Could Reynolds lead to a resurgence of Markakis? Will the word Sparkakis ever be in another Grey Albright post?
    Will Uribe and Fielder being on the same side of the infield cause some sort of continental drift? I’m guessing there was some cause for concerns in SF with Sandoval/Uribe/Molina altering the gravitational pull of the ball. But would this make dodger hitters worth owning again?Or is there too much swing and miss potential with fielder/kemp/uribe?

  74. Elijah says:
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    @Moonlight’s Grahams:

    It all depends on what loose in the caboose, but yeah, I think overall the O’s might provide a few boners for those willing to take some risks in fantasy land.

  75. in says:
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    @bigo: Dear god man, don’t take Uggla 15th. Matt Holliday, Ryan Zimmerman, a pitcher. . .there are options

  76. Chuckles Tiddlesworth says:
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    Probably shouting into a void here on this old post … but re Adam Dunn and White Sox park, a “He gone” is a strikeout, not a homerun. Regardless, we’re excited to have the Big Donkey in Chicago.

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