Player Page Matches
Alex Presley

Wanna know how dedicated I am to you? I have your name tattooed on my tramp stamp area. Yeah, your name. Wanna know how else I’m dedicated to you? I flipped guys in and out of this post, moved a few to the top 80 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball, moved some more to the top 60 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball, didn’t move any into the top 40 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball, but considered it and made sure everyone was ranked to the best of my ability in this post. You’re thinking, “I’d hope you’re making sure your rankings in this post are correct, these are you rankings after all.” True, You. But, honestly, most of the guys in the second half of this post are irrelevant outside of deeper leagues. It’s simple math. If you’re in a 12-team league with five outfielders, 60 outfielders are drafted, then twenty more guys are drafted that have multi-position eligibility, another ten for utility slots or for some schmohawks that draft a bench outfielder and, add up all of that, and it equals Frank Ocean. Okay, the math is off there. It should’ve equaled, “About 90 outfielders drafted.” And everyone knows the fifth outfielder drafted doesn’t last long on your team. Sure, maybe Josh Hamilton bounces back (doubtful), or maybe Carl Crawford becomes the latest Zombino (more doubtful), but in most mixed leagues these guys aren’t even being drafted. In one mock draft I did for a magazine (they still make these? Where do you buy them?), Josh Reddick wasn’t even drafted and he’s ranked higher than all the guys here. Never the hoo! All the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings are under that linkie-ma-whosie. Anyway, here’s the top 100 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Alfredo Amezaga
David Eckstein
James Rapoport
Kenneth McNutt
Michael Demperio
Jarret Martin
Taylor Thompson
Aramis Ramirez
Mike Minor
Jason Stoffel
Christian Bethancourt
Patrick Schuster
Chris Owings
Keyvius Sampson
Robert Borchering
Chris Dwyer
Wil Myers
Al Reyes
Austin Wood
Jorge Reyes
Nestor Molina
Grant Green
Alex White
Tyler Matzek
Max Stassi
Brooks Raley
Johnny Hellweg
Ian Krol
Tomas Telis
Jonathan Villar
Elevys Gonzalez
Caleb Thielbar
Keith Butler
Shawn Griffith
Hisanori Takahashi
Dane de la Rosa
Reynaldo Rodriguez
Dustin Ackley
Ron Villone
Ryan Vogelsong
Johan Yan
Jose Flores
Kip Wells
Graham Stoneburner
Kyle Gibson
Jean Lucas Almanzar
Mike Leake
Stephen Strasburg
Brad Boxberger
Julio Rodriguez
Aaron Crow
Craig Wilson
Fabio Martinez
Donald Lutz
Mike Trout
Nick Franklin
Noel Arguelles
Jack Wilson
Jose Ramirez
Edgar Olmos
Juan Duran
Melvin Mercedes
Jacob Turner
Kevin Barker
Tyler Skaggs
Carlos Perez
Shelby Miller
Billy Hamilton
Tucker Barnhart
Matthew Oye
Sean Burroughs
Aaron Northcraft
Stephen Cilladi
Jose Iglesias
Ryota Igarashi
Aroldis Chapman
Bryan Morris
Ariel Pena
Randal Grichuk
Matt Long
Andrew Oliver
Rafael Martin
Omar Beltre
Alexi Ogando
Brandon Belt
Justin Marks
Tanner Scheppers
Kentrail Davis
Francisco Arcia
Jose Toussen
Hector Sanchez
Adam Eaton
Dennis Tepera
Adrian Nieto
Eury Perez
Alan Embree
Chris Heston
Jarred Cosart
Oswaldo Arcia
Roman Mendez
BJ Hermsen
Zack Wheeler
Erasmo Ramirez
Michael Tonkin
Brent Keys
Danny Ortiz
Adrian Salcedo
Danny Santana
Rafael Ortega
Marcell Ozuna
Chad Jenkins
Ramon Cabrera
Reymond Fuentes
Giovanni Soto
Nick Christiani
Zachary Heathcott
Edwin Escobar
Scooter Gennett
Gift Ngoepe
Aaron Loup
JR Murphy
Michael Ohlman
Domingo Santana
Tommy Joseph
Trevor Hoffman
Nicholas Struck
Daniel Rosenbaum
Robbie Erlin
Noah Perio
Zach Samuels
Rylan Sandoval
Eliecer Navarro
Carlos Contreras
Brooks Pounders
Daniel Fields
Ryan Beckman
Rhett Parrott
Greg Maddux
Miguel De Los Santos
Ryan Klesko
Wilfredo Tovar
Carlos Perdomo
Mark Kotsay
Rob Wort
Leslie Anderson
Mychal Givens
Jon Singleton
Adeiny Hechavarria
Sergio Espinosa
Todd Glaesmann
Taylor Jordan
Enrique Hernandez
Cheslor Cuthbert
Jorge Padron
Shawn Tolleson
Frederick Lewis
Yoervis Medina
Jason Marquis
Daniel Dorn
Preston Claiborne
Dallas Poulk
Mario Hollands
Stephen McCray
Jake Peavy
Hunter Morris
Rett Varner
Drew Hayes
Jeffrey Walters
Rocky Gale
Jake Petricka
Shawn Sanford
Ryan Fraser
Ryan Lipkin
Derek Dietrich
Jimmy Nelson
Ramon Morla
Cesar Hernandez
Cory Vaughn
Daniel Webb
Brett Tomko
Jeffrey Malm
Anthony Fernandez
Forrest Snow
Joshua Bowman
Ramon Vazquez
Rico Noel
Addison Reed
Chad Bettis
Juan Sosa
Scott Alexander
Joey Terdoslavich
Kevin Millwood
Adalberto Santos
Stephen Hunt
Chris Sale
Seth Rosin
Bryce Brentz
David Freitas
Ryan Tucker
Donn Roach
Wilfredo Gimenez
Zach Walters
Adam Liberatore
Robby Price
Carlos Perez
Edgar Duran
Telvin Nash
Zachary Thornton
Rob Brantly
Willie Bloomquist
Stephen Pryor
Michael Rayl
Cole White
Gustavo Pierre
Giovanny Urshela
Tyler Thornburg
Brian Baker
Jonathan Garcia
Kyle Roller
Nicholas McBride
Mike Olt
Robert Doran
Mike Cameron
Ryan LaMarre
Aaron Dudley
Red Patterson
Arismendy Alcantara
Jarrett Casey
Leonardo Reginatto
Jeff Cirillo
Drew Hutchison
Michael Blanke
Brandon Jacobs
Miles Head
Kelly Dugan
Trevor Rosenthal
Daniel Reynolds
Kyle Knudson
Shane Greene
Casio Grider
Ryan Franklin
Corey Dickerson
Dale Dickerson
Lane Adams
Freddy Garcia
Travis Ozga
Carlos Guillen
Tony Plagman
Josh Edgin
Joe Nelson
John Halama
Jake Dunning
Tyler Saladino
Mike Foltynewicz
Jurickson Profar
Jedd Gyorko
Todd Cunningham
Michael Mariot
Asher Wojciechowski
Cody Stanley
Rangel Ravelo
Adam Kolarek
Andrelton Simmons
Chasen Shreve
Ryan Casteel
Matthew Little
Jared Hoying
Kolbrin Vitek
Gil Meche
Tyler Burgoon
Darren Ford
Jamie Moyer
Kevin Johnson
Christian Bergman
Ryan Fisher
Joel Pineiro
Austin Hubbard
Christopher Wallace
Jeff Arnold
Scott Podsednik
Adam Duvall
Greg Garcia
Phil Gosselin
Jacob deGrom
Jake Buchanan
Steve McQuail
Timothy Adleman
Arthur Rhodes
Ryan O’Rourke
Barrett Kleinknecht
Chase Whitley
Ben Rowen
Darin Erstad
Horacio Ramirez
Rafael Soriano
Alfredo Lopez
Evan Gattis
Ichiro Suzuki
Kevin Shackelford
Michael Earley
Kevin Kiermaier
Rich Aurilia
Adam Melker
Barry Bonds
Mike O’Neill
Pedro Feliz
A.J. Please, blog, may I have some more?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Wasn’t even planning it but my title is quite the send off to my turns at the Fantasy Baseball DraftKings posts this year. I’ve had some highs – Hot Carrasco Sauce! – and some lows (J.A. did NOT, in fact, make me Happ-y) but in the end, I’m happy with how the season went. We learned together, we played in a few 10 team leagues together. we sucked together…of course, the key thing in all of this is the word ‘together’. So without getting all sappy, let me just say thanks and move on to my final DK roundup, shall we? Yes, let’s. I always do my best to not only find value but to find breakout value. I highlighted my Carrasco call because if you’re gonna aim low, you gotta aim high…that made more sense in my head before I typed it. My point is, if you’re not spending beaucoup bucks on an arm, they better offer you the chance to pay up for upside elsewhere or to offer major upside themselves. It’s why Bauer at home was a scary proposition every time but also a 40 point outing possibility that you just couldn’t ignore. Well, maybe it was just I that couldn’t ignore. Speaking of pitching at home, Henderson Alvarez has some pretty drastic splits on the year in terms of DK points. There’s almost a 7 point swing for Henderson pitching away vs pitching at home and he’s also thrown 3 complete game shut outs in the house of the Unicorn vomit. Clearly he’s a home schooler and with that, he gets a prime matchup against a Phillies team that’s not even treading water right now. There just haven’t been many bright days for the Phils of late as they have the 4th worst K%, and the second worst wOBA/wRC+ over the last 14 days. This is not a team out there looking to conquer. They’re looking to be vanquished and Henderson is in a prime sitch to do just that. Given his price tag of $7,200, he makes it easy to roster a pitcher priced over 10K today if you’re so inclined. And for Henderson, that’s really Alvarez to it so let’s move on. Here’s some more hot takes for the Tuesday DK slate…but before you go! Yeah, I’ll still be doing some off-season baseball stuff but if you’re a DraftKings nut and wanna play the football side of this crazy world, keep up with us over on the Football side, would ya? I’ll be your DK guide most weeks so come hang. Ok, now on with the show…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to check the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Yesterday was the first day of autumn; this demands a poem. I call this, “Naked Prince Fielder Has The Definition Of Melted Tootsie Rolls.” The passing of summer; it’s a total bummer. Word, word, word; man, I’ve gotten dumber. Michael Brantley was da bomb; Napoli’s mom has got it going on. Jose Abreu would’ve been a sweet draft pick; Frank Thomas sued him for copyright infringement. Kershaw’s FIP is 1.87 on all hitters; Sonny Gray’s got selective dyslexia, using my teams for his personal shitter. Everything will be okay in this final week; Avisail Garcia is on a streak! Garcia went deep twice yesterday for his 6th and 7th homers. If he’s out there, of course you grab him. I’d prefer to talk about Avisail Garcia for 2015 fantasy baseball. He was a preseason sleeper this year, and he will be again in fifteen-after-twenty because he missed five months this year with an injury. Yes, he looks like Miggy, but he doesn’t act like Miggy. He’s a 20/20 type guy without killing you on average. In this injury-plagued year, his stats don’t look exactly as he has in the past, but that’s probably due to shutting it down in April and starting it up in August. I wouldn’t be surprised if in a few years we look back at this year and see how it didn’t portend anything. Unless he really did learn how to take a walk, as he’s shown this year. Though, I kinda doubt it. I expect he’s a line drive machine, 17-20 homer and 15-steal guy with a solid-enough average. Think what you were expecting from Brantley, rather than what you ended up with. Now smoke a spliff! Oh, wait, I stopped rhyming about ten lines ago. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I don’t know about you, and let me preface this by saying most if not all of my league mates at least know I contribute fantasy baseball (OPS) content, but I keep getting the old “But, he’s a Catcher/Shortstop so he’s worth more” and from a position scarcity perspective, that’s obviously true. However, I am A) going for the win-now so all I want is to take the lead in certain (all) categories and B) position scarcity-schmarcity: give me the best available.

So it’s time for your 5×5 (HR,SB,R,RBI,OPS) rankings for both position scarcity and position schmarcity.

FYI, I use the FVAR (fantasy value above replacement) approach to fantasy valuation vs. SGP (standard gains points) approach since I don’t have all of your leagues’ current and historical information. Feel free to look this up or ask below.

For reference, here are the positional replacement 5×5 values and associated players (the 5 z-scores for each category are summed up; the sum is adjusted in each position by this positional replacement value i.e. each Catcher gets .73 added to their z-sum while each First Baseman only gets .01 added to their z-sum i.e. all catchers values are inflated more because of the lower replacement-value):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I don’t know about you, but even I get hung up on the individual site rankings for my leagues’ player pages, even though they have little to do with the categories that we use. For example, in my CBS dynasty league, we use Runs Produced (RBI+R-HR), net Stolen Bases (SB-CS), Slugging, On-base Percentage, and Plate Appearances [Jay’s Note: We use OBP, TB, W+QS, 2*Sv+H in a couple of my dynasty’s], yet I am still at times impulsive to pick-up whomever sits at top of the sites’ rankings, which is based off standard 5×5 formats. Well, you’re welcome– This post is to help you distinguish the value differential for OBP and OPS leagues relative to the ESPN player rater rankings. It should give you targets to trade for or trade away.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As I mentioned in my first/intro OPS post, we’re looking at OPS differential by using expected (x)Homerun and expected (x)BABIP differentials. If you like Captain Planet or laser beams, or want to understand my general approach, then I recommend a gander. If you provide your email below, I can furnish the full list that you can sort. Wordpress doesn’t allow me to copy and paste it all pretty for you.

Let’s start with my xHR formula (PA*Ct%*OFFB%*HR/OFFB%). Here are the top 10 guys likely to drop off from a HR perspective: Albert Pujols, Adam Jones, Justin Morneau, Alexei Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence and Salvador Perez.

Here are the top 35 guys likely to drop off from a BABIP perspective that you actually might own (meaning I’m excluding the Martin Maldonados of the world): Josh Rutledge, Justin Ruggiano, A.J. Pollock, Josh Hamilton, Stephen Vogt, J.D. Martinez, J.J. Hardy, Eugenio Suarez, Hunter Pence and Matt Adams.

Looking at both xHR and xBABIP differentials, here are guys you might own that I would consider selling in OPS leagues based on their expected vs. actual OPS (the differential is in parenthesis just like this statement. See what I did here?):

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Manny Machado‘s epitaph: He always found more success throwing a bat at a ball. Better than Salvador Perez’s: Together again! Machado wasn’t just struggling, he was like that friend of yours that not only is having a rotten time at a party, but also sucks the prettiest girls in the room into his sad funk of despair and before long, the girls are like, “I don’t want to go out and get drunk and party and potentially hook up with you. Your friend Manny Machado is too depressed.” The buzz kill friend. Yesterday, Machado went 5-for-6, 2 runs, 2 RBIs with his 8th homer, and fourth homer in his last seven games (skipping the suspension games). About time he listened to your advice, did a body shot off the tummy of the girl that wants to be a physical therapist and cheered up! I don’t own Machado anywhere this year, due to the knee issue coming into the season, but he just turned 22 years old (almost literally; his birthday was Sunday) and I’ll be all over Machado again next year. Of course, if you can acquire him in a trade this year, by all means, which sounds like it was said by Malcolm X’s less militant brother, Bobby X. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Sometimes, you wanna feel like the smartest guy/gal/thing in the room. Of course, that would have to make the title ‘Summa Iwakuma Laude’ but I didn’t like the flow of ‘Summa Iwakuma’. My titles are ridiculous enough anyways, I don’t need unintentional rhyme muddying the waters along with it. So we chose ‘with great honor’ rather than ‘with highest honor’. We just replaced ‘cum’ with Hisashi Iwakuma…you better read that word in latin, perv! Not Hisashi, of course, since his name is in his native language of Japanese. So did I just create a new language? Jatin? Lapanese? Eh, I’ll leave the Bennifers to Hollywood at this point. But really, Hisashi should make you feel like you graduated with honors from Sports Tech Fantasy University (GO STFU!) as his price of $9,100 on DraftKings puts him behind the big three 10K+ pitchers on the day but the Stream-o-nator says his start is the tops of his class on the day. I do think because of the bigger names on the slate, Iwakuma will have a slightly lower ownership than normal despite the fact his start is at home and against a whiff-happy team. Much like my pick up skills will be on the Razzball Radio Tour, the Twins strike out rates are at the bottom of the league already but when they step out on the road, they’re even worse as they own the second worst K% while out Jack Kerouac’ing. So let’s swing our tassel from one side to the other and walk down that aisle…ahem, I meant graduation tassels and the hat. Seriously! Well, whatever, you’ve graduated to the rest of the picks. Now get out of this lead and take your dirty mind with you! Here’s the rest of the Razzball picks for July 7th contests…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:

Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).

Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.

The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.

Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.

Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):

Please, blog, may I have some more?