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“Who is the Dodgers ace?” asks the Fox Sports newscaster in Los Angeles, after the special report on “Where are the stars shopping for their Emmy gowns?” and “Juicing? Is it good for you?” and “A high-speed pursuit ends in an In-N-Out drive-thru,” and “Actresses over 24 years old may not be washed up after all,” and “Shopkeeper puts up sign to ‘Vote Republican’ and gets looted.” So, who is the Dodgers ace? On Saturday, Clayton Kershaw went 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners with 14 Ks, ERA down to 2.68. My Magic Eight Ball says this is the year the Dodgers hop on Kershaw’s back, march through the playoffs and justify every crackers move Mattingly’s done in his managerial career. Sometimes knowing the future really bums me out. Not to be outdone, on Sunday, Zack Greinke went 8 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners with 11 Ks, and lowered his ERA to 1.30. Soon he won’t be able to lower his ERA anymore (math is my strong suit). I’m totally done doubting Greinke…or am I?! No, not the ellipsis reversal! Ah! As I ranked in the top 100 for the 2nd half, Kershaw is way above Greinke in terms of, well, everything. Greinke is also not a 1.30 ERA pitcher, but no one really is, except maybe Kershaw. Greinke is definitely a number one though; this isn’t all luck. He has a 8+ K/9, 1.4 BB/9 and 3.05 xFIP, which is essentially nice, aw sooky, nice. A “nice aw sooky” sandwich, if you will. Then there’s the fact that Greinke hasn’t allowed a run in 43 2/3 IP. Orel Hershiser doesn’t scoff at that, maybe he yawns, then does a small double take when no one is looking. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

This is a unique time of the year as the All-Star break gives players some extra time off. Those who may have otherwise been placed on the 15-day disabled list will be able to catch a bit of a breather. Unfortunately there were several injuries that forced teams to place players on the shelf, some with six to eight week time frames. Consider this the triage version of the Ambulance Chasers as the lesser injury write ups will wait until next week. In addition to the players on the shelf, there are some replacement suggestions who should be available in most formats as well.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It’s the oldest trick in DFS. Blah blah blah Rockies blah blah blah Coors blah blah blah all the money. It’s true. If you are the type to play multiple lineups in a day (as I do in low dollar contests), it behooves you to follow the blah blah and build a Rockies stack, as well as their opponent. Right now, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers, the same early season juggernaut that sees them second in road wOBA and tops overall against RHP.

Sometimes the Coors stack goes awry, but not in this series. It’s been some delicious soft serve home runs for many of the participants, largely due to the usual questionable Rockies pitching. Now Wednesday starter Chad Bettis has been better than most Rockies starters. After all, he does sport a spiffy 3.42 SIERA, which isolates the actual skills of the pitchers. He also has missed 10% of the bats he’s faced so far this season, a good measure of the man. Same for the other side, where Michael Bolsinger has surprised, sporting a shiny 3.14 SIERA of his own.

(Sidenote: For comparison sake, Corey Kluber has a 2.45 SIERA, Chris Sale a 3.08 and Mark Buehrle is saddled with a 4.64 number.)

So does that mean you shy away from the game? By no means! There are some excellent bats to target, provided they are playing. In the interest of staying away from this obvious stack below the weekly DraftKings contest invite, here are the names I am tracking for the game today, presented without comment:

Michael McKenry, C: $3,400

Ben Paulsen, 1B: $3,300

Alexander Guerrero, 3B/OF: $3,700

Andre Ethier, OF: $4,400

Joc Pederson, OF: $5,100

The other guys, like Troy Tulowitzki, Nolan Arenado and Adrian Gonzalez, I would love to roster and with some of the picks below, maybe you can fit them in without sacrificing starting pitching. Good luck!

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Early yesterday morning, on Mother’s Day, Bill Hall hopped out of bed to the wail of sirens. There was a puppy tied to train tracks two miles from Bill’s house and the train was due for a gruesome splat in four seconds. If Bill flew at 500 MPH, he would get to the train tracks in a quarter of a millisecond, but Bill didn’t fly. Bill Hall moonwalked backwards, causing the earth to move in reverse five minutes and lifted the puppy off the tracks before the sirens even began. Next up, Hall was due at the ballpark in a face mask that resembled Michael Pineda. Yesterday, Bill Hall threw 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 hits, zero walks and 16 Ks. For Hall/Pineda this year, it’s been a bunch of Mother’s Days. His K/9 is 10.5, his BB/9 is 0.60 and his xFIP is 2.20. For those just joining us, those numbers are insane. If the difference between a K-rate and a walk rate is 7, we’re looking at an ace. Hall/Pineda’s difference is nearly ten! It’s better than Kershaw’s (11.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9)! So Hall/Pineda’s walk rate is absurd and we shouldn’t expect it to continue, right? His walk rate last year was 0.83 and he had a 1.89 ERA, which was in 76 1/3 IP. At what point do we consider Hall/Pineda an ace? I say this point. (I’m pointing my finger as well, to drive home the pointing point.) I’ve even considered that maybe that was Michael Pineda in a Bill Hall mask for all of those other Mother’s Days. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

If there’s one thing I kill myself doing in DFS it’s talking myself into starting a pitcher against a decent offense and whiff on sticking with targeting the stinkers.

Tuesday, it was talking myself into Andrew Cashner because Vegas had the game at a very low number, with Cashner as a slight favorite. I ignored the data that told me that the Giants weren’t terrible against RHP, especially at home and they certainly didn’t strike out much to boot.

I decided the Brewers data was too early to call, so I didn’t spend up to get Zach Greinke, even though the Brewers had been terrible against RHP so far and struck out plenty to justify any risk of one of the Brew Crew connecting.

Also, I ignored the numbers that were telling me Shelby Miller was a good play against the Phillies, again due to high Ks, low numbers on the road and overall and that Vegas had Miller as a heavy favorite against forgotten Chad Billingsley.

Sometimes you have to look at the numbers, trust your process and do what you have to do. It also helps to lock yourself in a closet after setting your lineups so you don’t do a last minute panic switch that sends you to the poorhouse.

So what about tonight? Despite temptations to roster a personal fave, Chris Sale, on the bump against the Tigers, I am sticking to the data and going with Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole at home against the Reds. The Reds are 23rd vs. RHP this season and 27th on the road. Mix in Cole’s #3 status on the SIERA charts so far and Cole is my pick at $9,500 for my SP1 Wednesday night on DraftKings.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I’m popping a cherry of sorts here…  I’m double-dipping in my first ever Pitcher Profile on a hurler already profiled.  But things change!  People change!  Hairstyles change!  I’ll miss you the most, scarecrow!  (bonus points if you know that movie!)

Two years ago, I broke down Chris Archer‘s first career complete game that Summer…  Look at how much we’ve improved!  No weekly rankings, no GIFs, it’s like that was written in the stone age!  At the time, Archer was a young-up-and-comer who even surprised the most die hard of Archer fans, but after going complete twice in a three game span in 2013, really hasn’t shown uber-dominance in any long stretches.  Well, looking back at 2014 he did go on a huge roll starting at the end of May, but never more than say 6 or 7 starts.

After a meh opener, Archer has been a stud the last four, and at age 26 may be finally settling in to an ace-like season.  So I decided to break down his outing yesterday hosting the Blue Jays to see if I think this is a new Archer that is going to maintain dominant numbers all year:

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Pardon me if I’m daffy with silly pills, but, with these top 100 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball, I’ve put out all of my 2015 fantasy baseball rankings. Hahahahaha… Breathe, Grey, breathe! Whew, almost lost it there for a second. Tomorrow will be the top 100 overall, then the top 400 overall, but that’s just putting everyone in perspective. I’m going to now soak my finger bunions in pickle juice and read a good book. Anyone read the Teri Garr autobiography? I hear it’s a real eye grabber. Oh, guess I should finish this post first. As always, my projections are included and where tiers start and stop. Anyway, here’s the top 100 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Jeff Locke ($7,900) is a solid play today in DraftKings contests with a good matchup against the Chicago Cubs. Jeff’s great-great-grandfather John defined the “self” through the continuity of consciousness. Cool stuff – but all I really need Jeff to do is pitch seven or so strong innings with a decent strikeout total. Against the Cubs it really shouldn’t be much of an uphill climb. Chicago owns the worst strikeout percentage in the major leagues against left-handed pitching (25.3%). Sprinkle in the fact that they will be without both Anthony Rizzo and Jorge Soler this weekend and we’ve got a recipe for success at under $8K. Locke is coming off a great start as well. The 23-year-old left-hander worked the Phillies for seven innings with nine strikouts and only three hits allowed on Monday.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to check theDFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

This week’s hot add was Mike Fiers (+62%). The Brewers hurler has posted a 9.5 K/9 and a 1.8 BB/9 since filling in for Matt Garza in the Milwaukee rotation. The strikeouts are no fluke, as he posted a K/9 of 11.4 in Triple-A this season. While his FIP is a run higher than his current ERA and Steamer is projecting a 3.60 ERA from this point forward, Fiers remains a great pickup for the stretch run. It will be interestinge to see what Milwaukee does with their rotation when Garza returns since both Fiers and Jimmy Nelson have been solid in his absence. It’s likely that Nelson will be the odd man out and moved to the bullpen while Fiers remains in the rotation. He has certainly earned it. Fiers has won all four of his starts, striking out 32 batters in 28 innings and allowing only four earned runs. As some starters begin to see their innings limited or fade due to fatigue down the stretch, Fiers can help fantasy teams finish strong.

Here are this week’s other big adds and drops in 2014 fantasy baseball…

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I’ve partied in San Diego. There are lots of options for beautiful people to finish your evening with, whether male or female. Either way, you’re gonna need a Jimmy in all likelihood. Ask J-FOH. He’s a local. He knows what’s up. Or ask “Adrienne” about Cam Thomas. Anywho… a Jimmy (hat) is very necessary in San Diego. The Brew Crew happens to be in Petco which is a stadium known more for its depression of hitter statistics than for the amount of petting that occurs. Jimmy Nelson is no fine thang, but he’s got some pretty good swing and miss in him and the Friars are clearly the worst offense he’s faced this year. And if my attempts at hitting a home run in the night clubs of San Diego are any indication, striking out is a very common trend as a tourist there.

I’m not gonna try to say that Nelson is the best option on the board today, but he is a really nice option. There are so many high priced guys today that I feel like taking someone at the lower end is what will set you apart in any matchup. Last night I played in three H2H matchups where we had 4-8… yes 8 of the same players. I don’t’ have a lot of words for how stupidly frustrating that is. Well, I do, but they aren’t more or less than 4 letters of inappropriateness. I’m riding Jimmy today like it’s his last adult feature film. I’m just sayin, cuz if I was Kust Cayin’ I’d be biting Grey, and the cougar has not yet approved that behavior. Nelson gets the Padres who’ve been a teeny weenie bit better lately, but ultimately pose the least threat to pitchers today and are in Petco. I won’t put you in a full Nelson to take him, but you should submit to this wisdom.

As we approach the final month of the season we are starting to really dial in the DraftKings picks. Having nearly a full season of data to rely on helps as the DFSBot proves. Rudy’s phenomenal tool, as Mrs. Gamble calls it, cranks out the day’s best value plays and even breaks it down to expected $ per point. The Ombotsman is now standing among company in its claim that the DFSBot has been a much more accurate method of ranking value than Draftkings salaries have been.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care!

Please, blog, may I have some more?