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0Between the two middle infield positions, I tend to draft a 2nd baseman early and punt shortstop. This happens for a few reasons. 1) 2nd base has more talent. That’s right, I draft the deeper position earlier. Same reason I punt catchers and try to get a 1st baseman early. If a position is deep, a lot of your leaguemates are going to have one of the top guys. You don’t want to be one of the 3 or 4 teams without a top guy. 2) There’s less difference between a middle-tiered shortstop and a bottom-tiered one. (Same could be said of catchers. We have a theme! Or is it a genre? No, it’s a theme!) 3) Shortstops tend to give value with the steal. You can find cheap steals later. Most of the 2nd basemen on this list are going after the top 150 in your 2012 fantasy drafts. This is a supplement to the top 20 2nd basemen of 2012 fantasy baseball. These are 2nd basemen that I’ll be setting the ol’ crosshairs on at my 2012 fantasy drafts after the top options are gone. Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2012 projections. Anyway, here’s some 2nd basemen to target for 2012 fantasy baseball:
Jason Kipnis – I’ll round some numbers off for you like they were matzoh balls. 15 homers and 15 steals. That’s his ceiling. If Kipnis reaches them then mazel tov! Is he worth a flyer, fo’ diggity. Just keep in mind Kipnis doesn’t have huge power or speed or schmaltz.
Danny Espinosa – Yeah, I don’t know why he’s a sleeper. Oh, I know why! Cause he’s being drafted around 150 overall. A guy that is going to be 25 years old who just went 21/17 is that bad? I realize that he hit .236, but you need to not worry about that. This is a guy that went 18/29 in High-A, 18/20 in Double-A and 21/17 in the majors. Yeah, he’s worth more than a 150th pick at 2nd base. Get your shizz together!
Jose Altuve – I worry that every Astros is gonna be a beyotchabatukis, but I think Altuve has some giddy in his step. Really, the sleepers that I worry most about are the ones that won’t reach 20 for steals or homers. Guys that can steal 20+ bags or hit 20+ homers can at least be counted on for those stats and the rest is cheese and gravy. Disco fries!
Jemile Weeks – I compared him favorably in the top 20 2nd basemen post to Luis Castillo. I stand by that. Assuming you can stand by something amorphous like a comparison.
Aaron Hill – Wow, he’s crazy low in drafts. Like, low low. Like in the 300′s overall low. Like your knees are double-jointed and you’re limboing low. Like you’re secretly sleeping with your friend’s sister and telling your friend about her as if she’s someone else and your friend is unknowingly giving you ideas of what to do with his own sister in bed low. Like– Okay, you get the picture.
Gordon Beckham – Yeah, I’m super thrilled he’s being drafted so low that I might end up with him on a team. Maybe I can do the draft where I pick Beckham while I’m at the dentist to make it a really pleasurable experience.
Kelly Johnson – I have no idea what’s going on with the drafting of 2nd basemen. Hill and Johnson should not be in the 300′s. Johnson went 21/16 just LAST YEAR (caps for emphasis, not for aesthetics.) I realize he hit .222, but he’s a career .260 hitter and he just hit .284 in 2010. He’s really worse than Kipnis? Rhetorical!
Johnny Giavotella – Right now, he’s the Royal plugged into the two hole, which sounds like the tagline for a movie about Richard the Lionheart that’s portrayed by Richard Simmons. In 46 games last year, Giamortadella had 5 steals in 46 games but was caught twice. As we know from last year, the Royals stealing percentage is about as successful as Madoff’s and they continue to be all klepto-like. If Giamortadella wants, he could steal 30 bases and get caught 20 times and the Royals will shrug. Also, in Triple-A, Giavotella hit 9 homers so he’s got some small pop in his little Guido body. I’ll give him the 2012 projections of 85/8/45/.285/22. Not bad, paisan.
Jason Kipnis isn’t Jewish, he is Roman Catholic. Oy, Grey. Oy.
@Vic Damone Jr., Except no one thinks Roman Catholic jokes are funny, unless it is about a 17-19 year old female who is about to sin for the first time (or at least pretending it is her first time).
@Bourne, if I am reading a story about a 17-19 year old female who is about to sin for the first time, humor is not what would be on my mind…..
Grey, what do you think of Aviles this year? Considering he’s the stahtah for the Sawx, been surprised no one’s overhyping him. But not only that, it’s like no one is talking about him AT ALL. He has 2B, 3B and will get SS eligibility, could hit .300 (career: .288), score runs, steal bags, maybe give you double-digit ding dongs… For a late MI in deeper leagues, he’s gotta be an option, no?
Or what’s the schmatta here?
@Goose, The Red Sox felt so great about Aviles they went and got Nick Punto. Then around midseason they’ll go and find someone else. Doubt Aviles is an AL-Only flyer real late.
Hey Grey,
Part 1:
In an NL-only league with K/BB instead of K, no Bench and 9 P slots, would it make sense to go for a high K/BB and IP ace like Cliff Lee? With only +- 1250 IP per team, he’d solidify ERA/WHIP and K/BB while also helping W’s.
Does this make sense, or would you still not draft a pitcher high?
Part 2:
In an NL-only league with OBP instead of AVG, thinking of 1B-depth, would it be unreasonable to claim Joey Votto is the nr.1 player? or would you prefer Braun/Kemp (it is a keeper).
Thanks a lot!
@Hemmo, 1. Yeah, grab someone you can trust. 2. Votto’s number one.
Jose Altuve is batting second for the astros. His .265 average projection is his floor, but I think his 80 runs might be closer to the ceiling this year. His .276 last year in 221 ab was his lowest professional average. He was mostly over .300 in the minors. And his chance for 10 HRs doesn’t hurt either.
This second base depth looks way better than the SS depth I am trying to dig for in my 20 team dynasty. Seriously where are all the shortstops? There aren’t any.
@Bourne, Nope, there’s not.
In a 12 team 5×5 mixed. 1b/2b/3b/ss/3xOF/util and 1450IP
I’m keeping Braun, Tulo, Aramis, Victorino, F-Her, Ike Davis, Moustakas, D.Hudson, Matt Moore, Anibal, Luebke and Avila.
I can keep Espinosa in the 10th round. Is it worth it?
@Johnson, Nah
I had to change my team name in the dyansty league that I drafted Matt Moore to
Hindenburg Disaster
and I wrote –
Oh, the humanity! – I drafted Matt Moore
@Mr Baseball, Ha!
What about Cuddyer? He’s second base eligible and switching to Coors field.
@Vottomatic, He doesn’t fit into the criteria.
would you trade Jesus Montero for David Price in a keeper dynasty league – not sure what Montero will produce over the years
@Mr Baseball, I’d hold.
“#11 overall – Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox: Surprise! Position scarcity rears its head to some degree here, but the numbers are there as well.”Karabell
…speaking of how deep 2B is…
@Wake Up, Hmm…
What you think for a 10 team H2H league?
1B – A Gon (9)
OF – J Upside (12)
3B – D Wright (29)
SP – Hamels (32)
2B – Uggla (49)
OF – Bruce (52)
SP – CJ Wilson (69)
SS – Rollins (72)
OF – Crawford (89)
SP – D Hudson (92)
SP – Garza (109)
RP – Valverde (112)
SP – Luebke (129)
SP – Anibal (132)
SP – Scherzer (149)
C – Soto (152)
SP – McCarthy (169)
RP – Farnsworth (172)
Util – Rasmus (189)
Util – Cespedes (192)
SP – Peacock (209)
Please critique! Thanks Grey!
@Raja, Team looks pretty solid. You’re relying a lot on Crawford for speed, but you did draft him late enough where it makes sense. Your pitching looks excellent.
The reason some of these guys are underrated is their potential BA drag. What people seem to have missed is that BA has been dropping for the last couple of years. Where you used to have to aim for .275 (14/15 team leagues) or .280 (10/12 teams) or more…now it’s .260, .265. Apparently, the masses who drive ADP have not made this adjustment.
Loosely, I’d say this translates into guys who hit .235 hurting your overall BA relatively as much as someone who used to hit .250. It’s not something you’d look for but it’s not nearly as painful as it sounds. Pair them up with a .280 hitter and you’ll be ok.
@Hawk, Not sure people knew they aimed for .280, but averages have seemed to dropped so you might be right, maybe they did aim higher.
@Grey,
I am in a very competitive 12 team money keeper league ($500 buy in). Here are the top three BAs from that league over the last five years:
2007:
.289
.285
.283
2008:
.283
.281
.280
2009:
.284
.283
.281
2010:
.281
.275
.273
2011:
.275
.270
.268
I said it during 2010 and I’m pretty sure I’m right. It’s not a “year of the pitcher”. Something in baseball has changed in favor of the pitchers ::cough steroid testing cough:: stat evaluation backs that up. As expected, ERAs from the same league have dropped over the same period:
2007:
3.67
3.68
3.88
2008:
3.60
3.70
3.81
2009:
3.69
3.71
3.79
2010:
3.31
3.51
3.52
2011:
3.25
3.31
3.46
My league is one of a zillion, I know, but the players are excellent and IMO, it passes the smell test.
If I went into my league this year shooting for a 3.75 ERA, I’d get it but I’d score 3-4 points in ERA. If I go into my league now shooting for a .280 BA the only way I’d get close to it will be to sacrafice HR/RBI/R/SB to get there.
Things have changed and expectations have to change to match up.
@Hawk, Yeah, I agree…You can look at the leaguewide stats and see the numbers have dropped.
@Grey,
Yup, and that’s what makes guys like Espinosa palatable. He’s putting up great counting stats while his AVG doesn’t hurt as much as people think because, outside of anyone who just read my last post hehehe.., they generally have not recognized that numbers have dropped.
His ADP reflects that – to our advantage!
@Hawk, The only problem with this theory is it assumes they were aiming for something before rather than just naturally bias towards average guys.
@Grey,
Everyone (well, everyone you’d want to compete against at least) has targets at which they aim, no? They would look at a .236 average and compare it to their targets even if they don’t recognize it themselves.
Whether they are thinking in general terms like “My average is too low to carry a .235 hitter” or more specific “I’m projected at .271. I can’t take on a .235 hitter”, the result is the same. They are depressing guys like Espinosa’s value because their idea of a “good” average is incorrect.
Yeah, fair enough… They do have an idea in their mind… I meant their idea is probably much higher than they need… They probably worry about anyone under .250… Though this might be your point too…
@Grey, I’m in a league that uses OBP instead of AVG and I’m seeing the same results as Hawk.
2011
.354
.350
.349
2010
.361
.357
.351
2009
.363
.359
.358
2008
.365
.358
.356
It’s striking the decline. I agree with you and Hawk and shifting the paradigm is needed. We need to temper our expectations for hitters. This will allow us the freedom to persue guys that can contribute in other ways. Besides, Espinosa and the like are not number one guys, they are MI.
I know I’m probably missing something here but, what is the difference between your “what it takes to win” and Rudy’s what it takes to win a 12 team espn league chart?
You say 997…Rudy’s chart says 1045…and so on…
@Wake Up, This one: http://razzball.com/what-it-takes-to-win-your-fantasy-baseball-league/ is what you needed last year, according to our RCL leagues. This one: http://razzball.com/10-14-15-16-mixed-league-numbers-to-win-your-espn-and-yahoo-leagues/ is according to projections for 2012. So one is what it took to win, and one is what it will take to win if projections are correct. They’re all pretty close though…
@Grey, Oh, I see. Thanks! Big difference in saves though. You expect less saves overall this year in MLB?
Nah… Saves are all over the map…
Grey, I’ve been mocking a lot of 5×5 MLB auctions in order to prep for a draft I have coming up this weekend. I keep targeting Kendrick (or sometimes Utley) at 2B and aiming for Castro or Andrus at short. Is this a reasonable strategy, or should I pay up for a higher ranked 2Bman and a worse SS?
@Chas Andres, Nope, as long as it doesn’t hurt the rest of your team, I’d take Kendrick or Utley and Castro or Andrus…
Hey Grey,
Which draft pick do you prefer in a 10 team league: 10th pick or right in the middle, like 4-6? Read about many guys saying they prefer the picks in the middle.
@Steve, 10
@Grey, 10 is your lucky number, gut feeling or some explainable expert-opinion? Anyway, could be the shallow league, right? Somehow I feel I miss out on something, when I have to wait that long for my next pick.
I like the turn…
great post. looking forward to the SS and the OF posts.
whatup with the podcast homie???
We taped it but there were technical difficulties we didn’t know about so going again next week…
@Grey, gotcha. lookin forward to it brotha
my league uses 2 MI instead of 2b/SS. Should i do anything different as far as rankings? does this mean i can wait longer to draft these two positions?
@chilidavis, oh, its 12 team H2H
@chilidavis, I would definitely target two 2B. forget SS.
@The Talented Mr. Dope Man, so what about Tulo, Hanley, Reyes? does this format lessen the rankings of these players since positional scarcity is taken away? Does Tulo go from #5 to #10-15 now, etc?
What cheese goes with Giamortadella? I know the classic is Naprovolone, but I find it too bland.
Ha!
Anibal dealing with shoulder sourness. Worried? Usually you’re cautious with shoulder injuries….
It’s early, everyone’s sore…
Regarless of other needs. Who would you take for this year? WHo will have more trade value mid season?
Greinke
Weaver
Brandon Phillips
Greinke…
Ackley not on the list because of his just because of his ADP, or are you staying away even if he is there 150+?
His ADP…
FBB is the only thing that keeps me from doing this year round…
http://youtu.be/np_PySjoFfk
@Wake Up, Ha!
15/15 for Kipnis is his upside? I hope you meant its his floor!
standard 5×5 keeper league, 15 teams
i’ll be keeping bautista, kinsler, and c santana (and will be forfeiting my 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rd picks to do so). i also have the 1st pick in the draft. who would you go with, miggy or pujols (i don’t want braun 1st)? neither will be eligible to be kept next year. been sold on taking miggy 1st for a week or so, but now i’m wondering if that might be a bad choice since i already have a 3b, and miggy is shedding so much weight AND dealing mentally with a position change. i do like that miggy will give me flexibility at 1b/3b though.
appreciate any advice. thanks.
@Jim, Miggy
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