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Pitcher Profiles are almost back baby!  Let’s get this shizz goin!

We’ve got another big year of GIFfing, Gamescore+ , breaking down every pitch to a tedium… it’s going to get my motor running about as hard as every Corey Kluber start!

I hope everyone has had a nice winter, and enjoyed an awesome year with us so far over on Hoops.  Good thing it’s an indoor sport!  Northeast getting more snow than Tony Montana’s desk.  But with the allure of the weather warming (it hasn’t yet), we can all get together and talk some starting pitching (it’s deep, convo over).  With depth comes two interesting schools of thought – should you go with aces early because there’s so little distinguishing the mid-tier and breakout guys?  Or wait entirely and build your whole staff late?  Of course there’s 50 Shades of Grey, which is still my usual approach.  Hopefully Grey’s next book will be 51 Shades of Grey Albright.  Shade 1 – mustache play.

If you missed the wrap up at the end of last year, you can check out how my 2014 pre-ranks fared against Grey and ESPN.

Enough foreplay, below are my top 100 SP ranks!  With the great pitching depth, comes great responsibility a lot of guys out of the 100 that are probably in other ranks here and there.  Pitchers 70-130 are so hard to differentiate…  But as always, please shoot your comments below on what ya think, and happy pitching 2015!

As tradition, my top-5 sleepers this year are (to varying degrees obviously): Carlos Carrasco, James Paxton, Brandon McCarthy, Shane Greene & J.A. Happ

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Top 100 SP

(rankings based on 12-team Roto)

RANK SP, Team NOTE
1 Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers Whoa, look at these controversial rankings! JB likes to stir the pot! If you think I’m off my John Rocker, then maybe take solace in the fact I had the #1 SP rank correct last year as well…
2 Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox Grey is like, “I don’t like people from the future telling me how many innings he’s gonna pitch!”   And I’m like, “Well he is gonna be healthy this year, I don’t care what people think about trying to predict injuries, even if they lived it from the future!” Ya know, if he got from 12 to 17-18 wins last year (21 quality starts, getting the ol’ QS 81% of the time) we really wouldn’t question Sale #2 too much, and the O is much better there in the South Side.
3 Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners He’s pitched so many innings, “He gets hurt this year!” says Grey’s future man. Well, let’s certainly hope not… “Way to flip flop on your logic in these ranks, JB!” But a lot of people seem to forget his ERA was 3.00+ the previous 3 seasons before a career 2.14 ERA 0.92 WHIP season last year, and his BABIP was .258. Cust kayin’!   Mmmmm, I gotta change my pants after dropping the first of those for 2015!
4 Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals Mmmmmm, Ks. Mmmmmm, National League. Mmmmmm, dat 2nd half doe! After that disaster in KC on June 17th, Scherzer finished 10-2 in 18 starts down the stretch with a 2.58 ERA and 141:34 K:BB in 122 innings. While the velo fell a smidge, the development/increased usage of the curve I think balances it out.
5 Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants Well skeptics will probably point to Waino’s tail off last year after all the innings he racked up in 2013+postseason, and Mad-Bum pitched his bum off in 2014+postseason. But Mad-Bum is Mad-younger, and I still don’t think you can automatically assume he’ll be hurt or wear down. Had a career-high K rate and walk rate last year, I’m Mad-excited.
6 Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians Sometimes it just feels good to knock something out of the park… But I can’t hit a baseball! I had Klubes 35 last year, well above anywhere else, and have been talking him up since May 2013. Unfortunately, he’s too good now to even be a call!   I mean, ummmm, move over Kershaw, moving Klube to #1!
7 Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals As Grey astutely points out, 10.1 K/9 and a 1.8 BB/9 last year. Grey is such an asstoot.  Stras also with an unusually high 13.1 HR/FB driving his xFIP to a measly 2.56.
8 David Price, Detroit Tigers Price vs. Stras was my hardest debate in the top-10. As in, their K:BBs make me hard. 9.82:1.38, and while both had several indicators their ERAs should be lower, I’ll narrowly lean to the younger and [the cop out tie-breaker] NL pitcher before Price.
9 Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs So this feels a little bit like a huge hit-or-miss rank. Of course we all go half mast seeing Lester off a career year moving from (1/2 a season worth) of tiny Boston to the big NL Wrigley, but then there’s the age, mileage, and a late-blooming career-year. What catches my eye is that he’s scrapped the change-up to a full-dose of cutter (30.8% cut to only 2.6% change-up, usually was about 22:10 through his career). Who else did that last year? Kluber me!
10 Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds I’m lukewarm on Cueto unlike a Pittsburgh crowd… He’s got the age, mileage, and a .238 BABIP last year as the cons (given a .236 BABIP in 2013 so maybe he’s just a low-BABIP guy), but in keeping with the theme of this little run here, expanded the cutter to a career-high 23.2%. Actually he used it single-digits until 2013, when he amped it up to 19.8%, which could be an explanation of these redonk BABIPs.
11 Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs Dammit, Grey sunk my battleship!   Grey loaded up his Flatteria, or however he portmanteau-ed, but I’ll add to it that his cutter looks like it’s a whiffleball pitch and he threw it 28.3% of the time last year. His repertoire and numbers are very Kluber-ish, and after his first 6 ho-hum starts, his final 19 were 139:28 K:BB good for a 9.88 K/9 to 2.00 BB/9.
12 Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers Like Cueto, a little lukewarm on Greinke. Obviously you get consistency here, but with pitching so deep, I’m rolling the dice on Arrieta.
13 Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals Look at dem Ks! After years of wallowing right at a 7 K/9, got up to 8.20 last year as the power stuff finally swiss cheesed some bats.   Good velocity, slider is working, should be a solid encore.
14 Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies Pretty damn safe, but we saw a walk rate last year climb up to a near career high and yes, even the unpredictability of wins plays a factor pitching for the Phillies. Even if it’s only half the year in Philly, he could go AL, maybe to another bad pitcher’s park… We’ll see…
15 Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels This might stir the britches…   Or whatever! If Richards didn’t hurt his knee last year, he might have even cracked the top-10. But of course he did, and the uncertainty of making opening day is scaring them all away… However every injury update has been optimistic, it’s a knee rather than any sort of arm issues, and it effectively gave him a innings limit last year. Big value ahead, I’m reachin’.
16 Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers Grey hates Yu! I love Yu! Well, not really, I think this will likely price me out. A little risky, but we all know the shizz when he’s on his… well, shizz I guess…
17 Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians Dammit, Grey sunk this battleship too! I’m all in, even though I know he’s trendy. How many guys above him have we oogled and ogled over having a dominant cutter? After a slow beginning to 2014 having some rough starts, Carrasco pitched out of the pen for a while, before ending on a dominant run. Immediately when re-inserted into the rotation, Carrasco’s final 10 starts to end the year were 69 innings of a 1.30 ERA with a 78:11 K:BB. His cutter is so nasty it’s called a slider on Fangraphs and he ramped his velo to a career-best 95.3 average on the heater.
18 Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates Ugh, I hate Gerrit Cole…   You’re like, “but you have him 18?!?!?!” I’m like, “I just mean in real life, not this fantasy hooblah!”   After the whole Brewers fight where he ran over to Gomez at 3rd dropping F bombs (so loud the broadcast could pick it up), then saying he didn’t curse at him or anything is like a normal Tuesday for an American politician… Anyway, after battling some injury issues, ended the season with a 3.44 ERA and a 60:11 K:BB in his final 52.1 innings over 8 starts. Really like the upside.
19 Alex Wood, Atlanta Braves Who’s got some Wood?! Ok, enough willy jokes, we got 81 more to go!  Wood’s fantastic season is somewhat masked by the yo-yoing in-and-out of the rotation as the Braves tried to save his innings in a horrifically failed experiment. Once finally cemented in the rotation on June 25th, Wood finished the year with 17 starts of a 2.43 ERA and a 107:30 K:BB in 111.1 innings.   Sure the win probability with that terrible Braves O is a tad of a concern, but that’s about all the issues I have…
20 Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox Grey hated the Shark last year… I fought the Grey and the JB won! This year Grey is more about Sharks than this mindless obsession over the Katy Perry backup dancers… Look I get his control was fantastic, but after 3 years of striking out a batter per 9, the K rate fell to 8.28 and he had a 2.99 ERA on a lowered, albeit marginally, .283 BABIP.   Win potential since he goes deep should be nice, especially with the nice O, but not overly investing.
21 Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves As solid as they come, but Teheran’s middle sandwich of June-August, particularly the August, wasn’t too snazzy. Plus a K rate of 7.57/9 isn’t going to get motor goin’.
22 Matt Harvey, New York Mets Well this gets my motor goin’!  Eh, kinda only sorta…   We all know what Harvey can do if healthy, and we all know coming back from TJ is not an easyJ. Worth a little bit more of a reach with the pitching depth out there.
23 Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays For yet another season, it looks like Grey has got another hankering for slobbing on the Cobb. I lied about no more willy jokes! I like Cobb a lot, but I think he will be overdrafted again this year. K/9 down to 8.04, and while a lowered line drive rate can be a testament to advanced pitching, I don’t buy an unusually low 16.4% LD% for a guy who was always at or above 20. I also think the Rays will struggle to support him. Not overspending.
24 Collin McHugh, Houston Astros The arsenal is ridiculous.   McHugh went from a boring sinkerballer (cough, Porcello, cough) to a power 4-pitch arsenal, boosting the average fastball from 90.0ish to 91.6 with nasty sliders, curves and change-ups – which he could still expand on using. Finished the year on a 10 game unhittable run, going 7-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 55:7 K:BB in 66 innings.
25 James Paxton, Seattle Mariners A quarter of the way through, so it’s time to start jumping the Shark. Which is almost what Paxton did in my rankings!   Rather have him 10 rounds later than Samardzija, that’s for sure… When you look at Paxton’s body of work last year, it doesn’t look huge but a lot is masked by his penultimate blowup start in Toronto. Before that one, Pax was 6-3 through 11 starts with a 2.19 ERA and 54:20 K:BB. And while all the numbers in the world are out there to make projections, a big part of the Pitcher Profiles is what you see at the eye level. I watched a lot of Paxton’s innings last year, and his smooth delivery with that 94.8 fastball average velo was downright unhittable much of the time.   Maybe pitching in his home country of Canada psyched him out there in Toronto, if not for that start, his small-sample numbers last year would be hard to ignore.
26 Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres I’ve been loathing this Ross rankings all offseason… I know I won’t get him, but can’t put him any lower.   K rate was great, walk rate was fine but still pretty bad, yet I still hate his side-step quick release mechanics. Seems so prone to control issues, and his final 9 starts he had multi-walks in all for a 52:25 K:BB in 53 innings and a 3.23 ERA. Minus the WHIP that’s still usable and all, but even as an elite groundballer I think he’ll be a WHIP liability – 2014 = 2.81 ERA last year, 1.21 WHIP.
27 Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees Another really really tough one to rank. In the Matt Harvey bucket, except Harvey is well removed from the TJ and Tanaka still has the tear in there. We all know the risk, we all know the reward.
28 Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics Meh… That’s what I think about Gray. He’s worthy of being in that second or third tier, but a K rate that fell 2 K/9 to only 7.52 last year, with a walk rate over 3. That said, the Ks really fell off late and it was his first full workload. Could be a little bit of a bounceback.
29 James Shields, San Diego Padres Whoa, Gray hates Shields!   The move to SD isn’t huge for me, still in a great pitcher’s park and NL move is negated by a much worse defensive outfield, but the durability and consistency are enough to take him here.
30 Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels Shoemaker the truemaker!   What an unbelievable season last year, with a 124:24 K:BB in 136 innings. Yea, 24 walks in 136 innings! The 16 wins are a little misleading, but I don’t think anything else is.
31 Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays Downright redonk after the move to Tampa Bay, I’m big on Smyly finally breaking out. He struggled early last year adjusting to pitching to righties full-time, but improved against them as the year wore on while being unhittable to lefties. Win potential will be an issue, but if he gets out righties he’ll be a big story.
32 Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals Hello boyfriend of last year!   What a season from Ventura, but even with the power stuff, a little bit of a rocky K rate (7.82) and WHIP (1.30).  His stuff is so electric that I think he can build on the rookie campaign.
33 Jacob deGrom, New York Mets Everything points to deGrom deserving to be higher. Struck out more than a batter per inning, walks were fine, but like Tugg Speedman, “I got a baaaaad feeling…” LD% was a little high at 23.2%, HR/FB a little low at 6.1%, and win potential is a slight issue. I couldn’t argue with anyone who thinks this is way too low.
34 Michael Pineda, New York Yankees I couldn’t argue with anyone thinking this is way too high! But I will try… Pineda, pine tar or not, was unreal down the stretch. After some injury issues after pinetargate early on, Big Mike immediately had success wrapping up with a 9 start stretch of a 1.91 ERA. K:BB?   44:4. 4 friggin’ walks! And the Ks were a little low on the whole, but had 18 his final two starts.  Great sleeper value.  (side note – just had a dream he got hurt in his first game. Seriously. Why would that be in my dream? If that happens, new movie idea – Premonition 2: JB’s Sports Betting)
35 Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals From sleeper Pineda to an outright untouchable (to me)… Yeah all those innings, an elbow that’s already had a TJ getting some cartilage clipped…. I’m sorry, I don’t want a neutered starting pitcher…
36 Brandon McCarthy, Los Angeles Dodgers I certainly hope to have McCarthy on all my teams this year. The K rate went nuts last year to a career-high 7.88 K/9 and McCarthy’s ERA and WHIP took terrible hits from a .328 BABIP and horrible 16.3% HR/FB.   Now moving to the NL into a pitcher’s park, McCarthy can take his evolved power-stuff into a great situation. The fastball jumped up to a 92.9 average velo after never topping 91 in his career. He’s evolved from a groundballer into a K guy, and the evolution is mad reminiscent of how McHugh reinvented himself.   McCarthy is still only 31, so there’s plenty of room for a big breakout.
37 Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners Man, the injuries on Iwakuma’s medical sheet are lengthy… It goes front and back! Had injury issues in Japan, and is already 33 and will be 34 most of the 2015 season. I love the microscopic walk rate, but he was plain too hittable last year with a high homer rate. I’m likely passing.
38 Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics How old would you guess Kazmir is?   Kinda surprising he’s only 31, and if not for back-to-back rough games against the Angels in late August, his numbers would look pretty sexy. He’s got an emerging cutter, and will be a great value buy on draft day.
39 Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins “Ohhhhh, look at me, I’m Phil Hughes with a historic K:BB rate, ohohohohohhhhhh I’m Phil Hughes!”   If you play in a K:BB league, then sure, he’s worth a million bucks. And I get all the metrics support he could be EVEN BETTER than last year, mainly the .324 BABIP. That said, he had a 23.2% line drive rate and is a flyballer. A flyabller with a 6.2% HR/FB last year, and at the eye level, the stuff just wasn’t that great in the starts I saw.   Maybe I watched the wrong ones!   I know, I know, he’s got the cutter rolling which I like for a lot of guys ranked higher, but I think 2014 was the career year and the Twins WAY overpaid.
40 Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals I hate the Cardinals, yet people seem to hate Lance Lynn even more than me! One of the most surprising stats while putting together these ranks is Lynn threw his fastball a whopping 79% of the time last year.   Leaning on the heater!   And he ended the season mad strong, from June 13 on, his final 20 starts were at a 2.28 ERA with a 112:41 K:BB in 126.1 innings. The WHIP is a little too high, but other than that, good value here.
41 Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros Fantastic 2014 season, but the elite groundballer isn’t going to be a K machine. With pitching this deep and these ranks for 5-cat roto, it’s hard to take a 6.57 K/9 guy without upside for too many more Ks much higher.
42 Mat Latos, Miami Marlins Ewww, Latos’ K rate was even worse!   Only 6.51 K/9, and after never averaging under 92.6 on the fastball through his career, it dropped to 90.7 last year. All that said, it’s a good pitcher’s park and he dealt with several injuries.  He’ll likely go higher, but there might be some upside left in his giant tank.
43 Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers Anibal was a little dirty last year, struggling through some injuries and had the K rate drop way off.  And while most of the metrics point out he was probably even worse than the numbers (microscopic HR rate, lucky .277 BABIP), there’s a big stat that worked against him. A very low 63.5% LOB. All these chumps keep scoring when they reach! While health had been a concern for Anibal a lot of his career, he had 182+ innings in 4 straight years before last year and is healthy heading into Spring Training. His velo was fine compared to his body of work and there’s such a discount this year in drafts.
44 Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles A buzzy sleeper, Gausman finally started grooving the Ks in his final 10 starts, going 51:17 K:BB over those final 57.1 innings. Got the power arm, starting to emerge, I love the upside.
45 Zack Wheeler, New York Mets Eesh, that control… 3.84 BB/9, and while the stuff is incredible when it’s working, it’s not going to be me to go after it. Nothing in the metrics suggest anything unlucky was working against him, so if you’re paying ADP price, you’re banking on an improvement in control. Which certainly could happen, but not on my watch… Here’s a crazy stat – in his 32 starts last year, 5 – count em – 5 starts he had under 2 walks. Multiple walks in 27 of 32 starts?! So it’s not like he had some common issues in bouts, it’s endemic to his game.
46 Shane Greene, Detroit Tigers Sleeper alert! Mmmm, another sexy cutter-er. Greene was near dominant to finish up 2014, with a 52:16 K:BB his last 41.1 innings as his numbers improved from the Minors with that development of the cutter. Moving to the spacious Comerica Park, Greene does have walk issues of his own but I see more chance of improvement. High .330 BABIP masked a better season in his small sample last year.
47 Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves A rough, rough year for Minor, mostly the injuries which includes something unthinkable… Even with the terrible numbers, the K and BB rates weren’t too bad, and it came down to ineffectiveness of the off-speed. His velo was actually right with the career numbers. A healthy off-season with a full Spring Training and there’s a big chance for a bounce back.
48 Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals I almost psyched myself into ranking him a good bit higher, but I scurred. Still a great K rate, still a WHIP killer… Gio didn’t really regress too much… That said, he is starting to abandon the curveball and the fastball has lost 0.5 MPH the past two seasons. Slower fastball with more change-ups… Not loving it.
49 Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays So many delicious Ks from over easy!   I didn’t think I’d be a big Odorizzi guy, but dude was always a solid WHIP and low BB guy through the Minors before a 3.16 BB/9 last year. Why the control issue? Well, the development of that change-up (aka Thing 2 if you remember that) took it’s toll. Odorizzi amped it up to a 24.3% usage, which gave him the Ks and I think he’ll have a chance to develop the command with it further in 2015.
50 Mike Fiers, Milwaukee Brewers Everyone knows I’m the resident Brewers fan, and I want to like Fiers as much as Grey… I really, really do. And certainly hope I’m wrong! Deception with slower pitches doesn’t always last, and Fiers struggled so so much in 2013 battling injuries. Seems a very boom or bust sort of pick.
51 Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds Wow, so full disclosure I originally had him at 71, but a deeper look had me shoot him up. His GB% has gone up the past 4 seasons to a career-best 50.6%, something you love seeing pitching in Cincy.   Despite pitching through injuries, Bailey actually was right at his career-best avg fastball velo at 94.2 and was fantastic his final 13 starts with a 2.65 ERA and 74:25 K:BB in 88.1 innings. He had offseason flexor strain surgery, but should be fully healthy in Spring Training.   If he starts solid, he’ll return big on a lower investment.
52 Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians The poster child for sleepers since 2011! Well, not really, just kinda feels like that… After that disastrous start last year then continual issues after getting demoted, Salazar finished 2014 on a bright note with a 73:18 K:BB in 69.1 innings after being put back in the rotation for his final 12 starts. He still had a 3.50 ERA in that stretch, but an unlucky .330 BABIP.   Great upside, still the risk he collapses again…
53 Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays Stroman using a full 5-pitch arsenal with a sub 2 BB/9 is mad impressive. That said, the Ks weren’t as big as we thought and he had a mad lucky 6.5% HR/FB for pitching there in Toronto. I could see him sliding this far here and there, but not reaching.
54 Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers This one is painful, because I really want to like Ryu more and a lot of metrics suggest I should. But another mad low HR rate (5.9% last year) has me a little scared, and he’s just plain too hittable to justify his rank a lot of other places. Sure the low walks helps alleviate, but I don’t like that he gave up fewer grounders last year and a lot more line drives.
55 Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays I wanna like Archer more, I really do (and that could go for the TV show as well…), but those walks!   That WHIP killing! And he had a very low 6.9% HR/FB. I think he’ll be decent, but not sure he takes a big step forward.
56 Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals Sheesh, this is a rough one.   I was one of the highest rankers of Wacha heading into last year and looked solid through the first half, but a fracture in his shoulder ruined the year. And it sounds like an injury that can just happen with his anatomy, not by changing any sort of mechanics or healing a muscle.   Maybe the biggest risk/reward guy in drafts this year.
57 Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates Do we get 2014 first half Liriano, or 2014 second half? Is he gonna be 2013 Liriano, or 2012 Liriano? There’s so many Lirianos! I’ll let someone else take the gamble.
58 Ervin Santana, Atlanta Braves Other than a couple bad starts in May and a brutal September, the Big Erv was actually pretty good last year.   Had an unlucky .319 BABIP and will pitch in another great park there in ‘Sota. Should be a great un-sex-appeal value.
59 Doug Fister, Washington Nationals “Where’s the beef?!”   Aka – Ks?! As a Porcello owner in several leagues last year, I got a huge rancid dose of what a low-K guy can do to a roto team, and a 5.38 K/9 isn’t gonna get it done. Before the 9K shutout of the Marlins to end the season, and let’s face it, it was the September Marlins, Fister’s last 6 starts had a 14:10 K:BB in 36.1 innings. That’s category killing! If you have all K-upside guys and need some ERA/WHIP relief I would go a tad higher, but only a tad.
60 Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies JB throws his arms up in utter confusion… Maybe the elbow issues last year were one last injury for Lee to get over, maybe it’s all about to fall completely off the tracks. Worth that risk at this point.
61 Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox I was all about some Quintana halfway through the year, but in mid-July through August the Ks disappeared with 30 in 48.1 innings in 8 starts. Then they came roaring back against September competish with a 33:3 K:BB in his final 4 starts. Kinda had a mini-Liriano up and down there, and had an unreal 5.1% HR/FB that screams regression there in the South Side. Might have enough of a discount and fall to me, but not reaching.
62 Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels Ohhhh, the Weave. It’s all going the wrong way, but still pitches so many innings and so deep he’ll rack up wins.
63 Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres Why is the rum gone?! Jack Sparrow is missing Cashner’s Ks too…   And he had a pretty high 75.3% LOB last year with a .274 BABIP that helped a good ERA and WHIP. The big thing I hate seeing is a pitcher losing velocity on the fastball (it was marginal 2013-2014 dropping only 0.2 MPH) with the change-up not dropping with it (up from 84.1 to 85.2). He’s really cut back on that pitch and relying on fastballs and sliders, and I don’t know if it’ll get it done for a higher rank.
64 Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers The dramatic up and precipitous down is like an epic cleavage… No way the Ks come back, but it’s been two straight unlucky BABIP seasons with some room to be useful in 2015.
65 Derrick Holland, Texas Rangers If only those 37 innings last year can be extrapolated into 200 this year! 1.46 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, and while that of course won’t happen this season, he is off a knee injury and not a TJ. The velo was down a smidge last year, but I think he is worth drafting for the flier.
66 J.A. Happ, Seattle Mariners I’ve already heard some sleeper buzz, but I’m in on the magic. So many things about Happ make me… Dare I say… Happ-y? I’ll be here all night! Here we go, first is the new park in SEA.   Obviously a nice move. B – what he did with his control.   BBs wavered through his career in the mid-4s per/9, but for the first time he got it under 3 to 2.91 BB/9 last year. 3 – there is no 3 and D – the biggie. Spike in velocity. Got the fastball up to 92.7 MPH and the velo has gone up each and every season in the majors from 87.7 and incrementally up. So weird! All that said, it didn’t translate to great fantasy numbers last year, but he’s always been a good K guy and a flyball pitcher, which works perfect in Seattle. A definite last round pick or two for me.
67 Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs Big breakout for Jimi, and while he probably won’t be 2.46 ERA/1.08 WHIP good again, I think there’s some solid upside. Skeptics will point to his terrible K rate when he got to the Majors (5.27), but he was just fine in AAA at 8.50 in 102.2 innings. He doesn’t throw hard, but that change-up/cutter combo is fantastic.
68 Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres Another year, another season of JB bashing Kennedy! Did you really miss much if you didn’t pick him up last year?   Sure anyone with 200+ Ks has value, but a high ERA and WHIP hurt his value and he had a second straight season of a 3+ BB/9. And he’s pitched a ton of innings the past 5 years…
69 Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs Hammel looked like an absolute ace while with the Cubs in the first half last year, then got shelled when moving to the AL in Oakland. Well, now he’s back on the Cubs and we should expect a 2.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a K per 9 for a full season right?! Well, obviously not, but some upside is still there with the move back to the friendlier NL.
70 Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds For a guy who’s only 27, Leake has some massive innings on that arm with 891.2 in 5 seasons. Of course, pitcher injuries are common but unpredictable, just something to start with. On the bright side, career-high 6.89 K/9 with his usual nice 2.10 BB/9.   The big thing I liked to see is a big spike in GB% (up to 53.4%) given that park and a slight uptick in velocity to a career-best. I’m not seeing a big breakout, but if healthy and another mini-step forward, could be a 5th starter kinda guy.
71 Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants I’m not huge on Peavy, but those final 9 starts after getting acclimated to the Giants were unreal.  6-1, 1.35 ERA with a 46:12 K:BB in 60 innings. That said, K rate has gone down the past 5 years and he has so many miles on that arm.
72 Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays I watched a few of Hutch’s starts, and my takeaway was he relies on pinpoint fastball command without it being an overpowering pitch. Sure he had a K per 9 and a BB rate under 3, but I think there in Toronto the HR rate goes over 9.7% and I’m not a huge believer of the stuff.
73 CC Sabathia, New York Yankees Man, when it falls off it REALLY falls off. Maybe this knee surgery will give him a last useful season, but meh.
74 Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals I’m so conflicted here… I’m anti-Cardinals and never been a big C-Mart sleeper guy, but we all know he has great stuff and had an unlucky .333 BABIP last year. What put me at this rank is after pitch 31 and later, hitters teed off hitting over .300.  Plus overall, lefties crushed him hitting .297 through 171 batters faced. And that included an unholy 19:22 K:BB to lefties. Talk about OUCH! He has room to improve and take a step forward, but he’s also likely on an innings limit. Won’t be me paying an inflated sleeper price.
75 Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers More confliction! Nelson was absolutely dominant against AAA hitters in 2014 (1.46 ERA 0.92 WHIP 114 Ks in 111 IP), but had some issues when hitting the Majors. In 12 starts, really the only thing that changed was the K rate fell 2 per/9 and the BABIP went from .244 in AAA to .333. With Gallardo traded to Texas (making him unrankable to me…) the 5th spot is assured and while I don’t expect a big breakout, I think he’ll be a serviceable mid-to-back-end guy in 12ers.
76 Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers Mo Brewers mo problems!   Lohse is anti-upside and other than a bad spell with a couple bad starts in August, was still Lohse-y.
77 Chase Anderson, Arizona Diamondbacks Love the change-up! Anderson actually had a really underrated year in 2014, posting an 8.27 K/9 and a 3.67 xFIP. But the ERA and WHIP weren’t great with a high 13.6% HR/FB (which you kinda expect from a slower-throwing change-up thrower) and a .313 BABIP.  Thinking he could be something like a poor-man’s Shaun Marcum-in-his-prime.
78 A.J. Burnett, Pittsburgh Pirates Searage can fix all problems!   Let’s get him into Congress… Burnett is 30-friggin-8 and the fastball lost almost another full MPH last year. That said, I think he could be semi-useful.  Read: could.
79 Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians Like Jimmy Nelson, and well, like a lot of young pitchers, Bauer was tearing apart AAA to be decent-to-not-good in the Majors. That 3.53 BB/9!!! When he was grooving it in his 46 AAA innings, still had a 2.74 BB/9.   Even with a nice step forward the WHIP will be a liability, but some nice upside.
80 Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers So many Brewers lately! I love Wily as a real-life pitcher – throws hard, always is amped up and competing, goes deep – but he’s not a great K guy and sometimes loses some command. It didn’t translate into a bad walk rate and he took nice steps forward in both Ks up and BBs down.  But Big Wily had a pretty lucky 76.1% LOB that helped the ERA stay at 3.53 against the 1.30 WHIP.
81 Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles After a disastrous start, Tillman was great down the stretch with a 2.33 ERA and a 76:18 K:BB in 89 innings over 14 starts. And his velo really struggled early with a lot of games under 90 MPH, but ramped it up in the second half. I think there’s some value here, but only as my last pick sorta thing.
82 Jesse Hahn, Oakland Athletics
I loved getting my Hahn on last year, but he’s had a ton of injuries and really struggled with control at a 3.93 BB/9 in 2014. While there’s definitely upside, he’s pretty much a 2-pitch pitcher with the fastball and curveball which worries me for a full season if he stays healthy.
83 Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins A lot of the JoFer value depends on if you have DL spots/if you’ve drafted anyone hurt at this point.   This likely prices me out as I highly doubt he’s the JoFer of early 2014 when he’s back on the mound.
84 Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox Dart throw time! And why not bet on elite talent who pitched through college and has a legit chance to break as a starter. The #5 spot is wide open, and while it would give the White Sox 4 lefties, why not?
85 Daniel Norris, Toronto Blue Jays Another hot prospect, Norris might not quite have the shot Rodon has of breaking the Opening Day rotation, but the Jays have already said they plan to have him in the rotation at some point. He destroyed the Minors last year and already made his first career start, so that monkey is off his back.
86 Rubby De La Rosa, Arizona Diamondbacks A great shot to make the #5 spot in the Diamondbacks rotation, and that makes me wanna rubby on dat velo!   The Ks didn’t really show up last year, but a nice change up and moving to the NL gives him some upside.   I would rank him higher, but not loving he’s a flyballer there in the desert.
87 Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets The big Finn (I dunno, his last name is Scandinavian-ish or something…) never got out of AAA last year, even though he was regarded as close-to-ready premiere prospect. Shelled in the Minors while stuck there in 2014, The Original Syn had a 4.64 ERA, 1.48 WHIP in 133 innings at AAA Las Vegas, but with a monster 9.81:2.91 K/9:BB/9. That ERA and WHIP can be explained by a horrific .378 BABIP and 67.2% LOB. So unlucky… And just for comparison, Matt Harvey’s last AAA stint was 3.68 ERA/1.33 WHIP 9.16:3.93 in 110 innings. I’m not saying Syndergaard is Harvey and he’s not likely to start in the rotation, but if there’s any prospect for pure stash, this is the one.
88 Shelby Miller, Atlanta Braves Shelby Miller’s 2014…   Yuck… Ks disappeared, walks went up, and somehow his ERA stayed at 3.74 even with a .256 BABIP. Looked more like a 4.50 ERA guy out there. That said, stays in a pitcher’s park, in the NL, and maybe the Braves can help figure something out…
89 Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants Matt Cain’s 2014… From above, replace Y with an F. Velo was fine, but had his sterling career HR rates continue to regress and had a really weird career-high spike in GB rate at 45.1% after only being over 40% once.   I don’t like anomalies like that for aging/injury concern pitchers.
90 Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals Mr. Regression! 6.81 K:3.18 BB, .239 BABIP, left 77.2% of guys on base, and had a microscopic 6.1 HR/FB. His xFIP was 4.42 to his ERA of 2.53! All that said, he throws hard and has good enough stuff for a flier, even if health is a concern as well.
91 Jon Niese, New York Mets I should probably be a little higher on Niese after he dropped the walks to 2.16 per 9, but he lost 1.5 MPH on his fastball from 2013 to 2014 and I don’t think he can stay healthy.
92 John Lackey, St. Louis Cardinals He’s old, he’s fat, he’s annoying… But the velo has maintained and he should provide something similar to last year, especially moving into the NL full time.
93 Drew Pomeranz, Oakland Athletics Back in the day, as in 3-4 years ago, I thought Pomeranz was going to be an unstoppable ace. But he got traded to the Rockies, overthrew pitches, the curve had no bite, and he had a few injuries. It finally came together at times last year getting out of Coors, but he’s become a two-pitch pitcher and I’m not buying he can keep up success.   Plus he had lucky peripherals in a .244 BABIP and an unreal 82.1% LOB. That said, he pitches from the stretch which is a good weapon. All-in-all, I’m just monitoring him in 10 or 12ers, not having him as a back end guy.
94 R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays Meh. 173 Ks because he was durable, but in IP roto leagues, the rate in that kind of volume killed you. Walks have gone up 3 straight years, and he’d need something miraculous to happen in order to boost into the top-50 again.
95 Matt Garza, Milwaukee Brewers Walks up, Ks down, BABIP at .268 and HR rate of only 7% in a hitter’s park. Plus can’t stay healthy.
96 Tom Koehler, Miami Marlins Not too much upside for the Plumber (wait, shouldn’t that be Joe Blanton though?), but Ks and BBs improved from 2013 to 2014 and he could be a usable guy when hot.
97 Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners I dunno, just not a big Walker fan, but the upside is enough to take a top-100 flyer on him. Great speed on the fastball but lost his control last year, and the couple starts I’ve seen from him I wasn’t that impressed. Plus isn’t a lock to be in the rotation Opening Day.
98 Wei-Yin Chen, Baltimore Orioles Definition of no upside. A great dependable guy in AL only, and should hover in the 80s-100s all year for reliability-sake, but not a guy I see taking a leap forward.
99 Tim Hudson, San Francisco Giants This is likely T-Hud’s final season, and he’s already behind due to ankle surgery. For non Hudson-owners in 2014 like myself, it’s easy to forget almost his whole season (first 26 starts) he had a 2.90 ERA with a 106:29 K:BB.   Given in 167.2 innings, but still. Maybe we get a nice sendoff.
100 Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds Tony C looked great in 2013 only to be horrific last year while supposedly pitching through a shoulder issue. I’d be hesitant relying on him in deepers, but for the upside flyer pick in 12ers, not too many pitchers left can rival him.

And there ya have it!  A few guys out were tough cuts, there’s still Clay Buchholz, Dillon Gee, Nathan Eovaldi, and yes – my ex-bf – Rick Porcello.  Didn’t even wanna rank him there in Boston with that fantasy-killing K-rate.

While all those guys are pretty boring, one name I couldn’t quite get on there that I am really interested in following is Mike Foltynewicz.  Huge arm, chance to start out of the gate for the rebuilding Braves, he’ll be a quick addition if he looks like he has some control early on.  As always, shoot your comments below and happy pitching!