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Be sure to check out my first post in this series (No If’s, And’s, or But’s, These Kid’s Got Stuff) where I discussed the approach to SP sleepers by Pitch Scores. Here, I’m going to score full repertoires for some high impact 2nd year pitchers and some late round sleepers.

In order of how I have them projected– The impact 2nd years: Jose Fernandez, Michael Wacha, Sonny Gray, Danny Salazar & Gerrit Cole… no messing around here. The late round values: Erasmo Ramirez, Jaime Garcia & Josh Beckett.

Let’s take a look at the high impact:

Jose Fernandez - In 2013, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (95mph) and Curve (82mph), also mixing in a Change (87mph) and Sinker (93mph). He also rarely throws a Slow Curve (65mph).

Michael Wacha - In 2013, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (94mph) and Change (86mph), also mixing in a Curve (76mph). He also rarely throws a Cutter(89mph).

Sonny Gray - In 2013, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (93mph) and Curve (80mph), also mixing in a Sinker (93mph) and Change (87mph). He also rarely throws a Cutter (87mph) and Slider (84mph).

Danny Salazar - 2013, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (96mph), also mixing in a Splitter (86mph) and Slider (87mph). He also rarely throws a Sinker(94mph).

Gerrit Cole - In 2013, he has relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (96mph) and Sinker (96mph), also mixing in a Slider (89mph), Curve(83mph) and Change (88mph).

Just how dominating was Danny Salazar last year on the pitch level? Adding up the pitch scores (weighed by usage), per my previous post, we come up with the following matrix (Rep = Repertoire Score):

Player

P-Qty

FB

SI

CH

SL

CU

CT

SP

Rep.

Salazar

782

1.07

0.01

0.10

1.18

Gray

842

0.40

0.02

0.2832

0.71

Fernandez

2584

-0.01

0.06

0.05

0.1643

0.26

Wacha

779

0.02

0.22

0.23

Cole

1714

-0.07

0.09

0.01

0.00

0.1452

0.18

Boom! (On just the pitch-level) Salazar is beyond quadruple the dominance of Fernandez, Cole & Wacha. Quadruple! Grey thinks he’s a sexy beast and will go 10/3.40/1.19/180 and I’ll one-up that and call him our 2014 Matt Harvey. But keeping things rational, I have him at an almost identical 12/3.38/1.18/181. Screw rational! Don’t be baffled if he goes 2.75/1.15/200 with health and some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in the game.

Just to note, the following pitches weren’t used enough for our analysis: Wacha’s curveball and cutter; Gray’s cutter, changeup and slider; and Salazar’s sinker. Only Gray’s cutter and Salazar’s sinker were relatively dominant further adding value to them.

I already pointed out Burch Smith in the first part of this series. Here are 3 others with a top-10 Fastball that can be sneaky late round value:

Josh Beckett – still valid? Sho-is. While he’s provided hideous ERA’s the past 2 years – backed up by ugly FIP’s, his more reliable expected ERA’s (xFIP & SIERA) still come in under 4.00 and he was hit hard by three relatively unlucky rates: 16.3% HR/FB, 65.7% LOB rate and a .323 BABIP – all well beyond his career rates. Feel free to stream him at home when healthy. Here are his pitch scores: Fastball = #2/218; Sinker = #33/174; Changeup = #64/141; Curveball = 88/149; Cutter = #4/69… well above average throughout his repertoire

Erasmo Ramireza relatively deep 5-pitch repertoire, his curveball (#68) and changeup (#44) were well above average but his fastball was dominating – induced enough grounders but had a top-10 whiff/swing rate. He’s known for his changeup, but his slider was also devastating in 2012.  I think he can take a big step forward if 3-of-his-4 pitches can baffle in 2014.

Jaime GarciaAll we have to do is look at his pitch score rankings here: 9th best fastball, 74th best sinker, 13th best changeup, 61st best slider.  He’s not dominating, but he induces a ton of grounders and consistently approaches a 3.00 K/BB ratio.  He won’t win you your WHIP or K categories, but he’s a solid late-draft contributor IF he’s healthy.

And their repertoire scores:

Player

P-Qty

FB

SI

CH

SL

CU

CT

SP

Rep.

Beckett

730

0.47

0.13

0.02

-0.081

0.24

0.78

Garcia

754

0.21

0.03

0.15

0.09

0.48

Ramirez

1243

0.34

-0.24

0.05

-0.10

-0.017

0.03

These three pitchers can still be assets with some luck (BABIP, HR/FB and LOB%). They just get hit a bit harder than the previous five:

2013 MLB AVG:

10.50%

73.50%

0.294

Name

HR/FB

LOB%

BABIP

Jose Fernandez

7.10%

79.40%

0.24

Sonny Gray

8.30%

74.90%

0.276

Michael Wacha

7.40%

79.70%

0.275

Danny Salazar

13.70%

83.30%

0.298

Gerrit Cole

8.10%

74.50%

0.308

Jaime Garcia

15.40%

72.30%

0.3

Erasmo Ramirez

14.30%

70.20%

0.3

Josh Beckett

16.30%

65.70%

0.323

Keep an eye on Brandon Workman and Hector Santiago as well.

As I offered in the first post, feel free to request the full matrix. Again, here are the top-30 (updated) Fastballs from 2013 from a Whiff/Swing, GB/FB & LD/BIP perspective:

RK

Player

Tm

H

Count

zWhf/Sw

zGB/FB

zLD/BIP

FB Score

1

Josh Beckett

LAN

R

194

2.80

-1.30

0.44

1.75

2

Matthew Magill

LAN

R

314

2.69

-1.12

1.09

1.73

3

Burch Smith

SDN

R

361

2.89

-0.97

-1.98

1.69

4

Danny Salazar

CLE

R

525

2.47

-0.70

0.76

1.60

5

Madison Bumgarner

SFN

L

1216

2.18

-0.28

0.28

1.41

6

Yu Darvish

TEX

R

1036

2.07

-0.52

0.28

1.32

7

Erasmo Ramirez

SEA

R

325

1.99

0.18

0.28

1.31

8

Jaime Garcia

SLN

L

119

1.84

1.42

0.44

1.31

9

Hector Santiago

CHA

L

1372

1.97

-0.83

1.09

1.28

10

Brandon Workman

BOS

R

146

1.72

-0.22

3.18

1.28

11

Hisashi Iwakuma

SEA

R

846

1.95

-0.68

0.60

1.25

12

Taijuan Walker

SEA

R

139

1.80

-0.52

1.25

1.20

13

Roy Oswalt

COL

R

238

1.84

0.15

-0.20

1.19

14

Danny Duffy

KCA

L

252

2.05

-0.62

-2.14

1.16

15

Anthony Cingrani

CIN

L

1342

1.74

-0.51

0.44

1.12

16

Zack Greinke

LAN

R

1063

1.78

-0.15

-1.17

1.07

17

Brett Myers

CLE

R

100

1.39

-0.97

2.38

0.97

18

Matthew Harvey

NYN

R

1524

1.43

0.03

0.76

0.97

19

Clay Buchholz

BOS

R

485

1.44

-0.28

0.92

0.97

20

Shelby Miller

SLN

R

2093

1.48

-0.03

-0.20

0.94

21

Tom Gorzelanny

MIL

L

170

1.66

-0.93

-1.33

0.93

22

Johnny Cueto

CIN

R

215

1.52

-0.17

-0.69

0.93

23

Edinson Volquez

LAN

R

172

1.58

-0.11

-1.49

0.93

24

Julio Teheran

ATL

R

1324

1.33

-0.36

0.28

0.85

25

Gavin Floyd

CHA

R

148

1.40

-0.17

-1.17

0.83

26

Max Scherzer

DET

R

1896

1.30

-0.90

0.60

0.82

27

Lance Lynn

SLN

R

1750

1.40

-0.88

-0.53

0.82

28

Sonny Gray

OAK

R

434

0.96

2.86

-0.53

0.78

29

Dan Haren

WAS

R

102

1.29

-0.62

-0.69

0.75

30

Anibal Sanchez

DET

R

1037

1.14

0.03

0.12

0.75

 

You can follow Dano on Twitter @Rotobanter or you can send him requests through Rotobanter.

  1. Dead Head says:
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    Very nice stuff, very interesting as well. I like this pitch score method you got here, hopefully you will be making some posts during the season? I’ll be keeping an eye on this stuff.

    I’m upset with myself for passing on Salazar, even though I marked him before the season as someone to keep an eye on, I missed his call-up and in my dynasty league he got snagged up before I could get em. Man that’s guna hurt if you’re bold prediction turns out to be true… ARGhhhh!

    • Dano

      dano says:
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      @Dead Head: yeah in my new leagues I target him. Missed out last year and working a freeman for Salazar and gyorko trade.

      • UncleLarryWalker says:
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        @dano: Gyorko is a beast. Solid move if you pull it off.

        • goodfold2 says:
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          @UncleLarryWalker: in just one year’s time that trade could look like trade rape.

  2. Blake says:
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    What do you think about Tyson Ross? Seems like he should be close to this list.

    • Dano

      Dano says:
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      @Blake: on the pitch-level, his fastball is below average, but he had a top 50 changeup, THE BEST SLIDER (on the same level of Corbin’s and Scherzer’s).

      He’s basically the Alex Cobb of 2014 (big sleeper, pitchers stadium, etc.)

      *I have a post out tomorrow on SP sleepers using Alex Cobb as our template. Tyson Ross and Alex Wood are quite noted in the post: rotobanter.com

  3. Eddie says:
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    Using a H2H QS format, which two would you want to keep out of Bailey (Rd 13), Teheran (Rd 21), and Salazar (Rd 22)? Thanks!

  4. Dano

    Dano says:
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    Salazar/Teheran because of the round differential. All closely tiered:
    http://rotobanter.com/2014-position-tiers-updated/
    -7th tab is my SP rankings

    can you tradsies? im up for trading any of the 3 to keep the 3rd based on what value you can get back

    • Eddie says:
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      @Dano: Cool, the high upside/low cost intrigues me with both of those guys as well. If I can’t trade one, think I’ll end up going that way. And thanks for the link! Checked your Salazar entry and liked everything I saw…except for the projected 5.92 innings per start: sounds like a quality start tease!

      • Dano

        Dano says:
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        @Eddie: yeah the IP in general could limit complete value but i think my projection was 166 which is rational. Chance for more if they’re in the race again so long as they dont pull a Nationals.

        if someone jumps at Salazar though i’m comfy with teheran

  5. Rainman says:
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    Can you send me the full matrix? Thanks. darren297@aol.com

  6. MattTruss223 says:
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    Would love to check out the matrix if you don’t mind passing it along: trussellm at gmail dot com

  7. Peanut says:
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    i appreciate the work put into this but I completely do not understand it. can someone give please give me a summary to help me understand what is basically being said here and what numbers are relevant ?

    • Dano

      dano says:
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      @Peanut: i found z-scores to each pitchers’ pitch (how dominating their pitch was in relation to all other pitchers with that same pitch)….so this all focuses on the pitch level.

      i added each pitch’s score to score a repertoire.

      hope this helps.

  8. Kenny Carvalho says:
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    I would love to see the full mattix. Kennycarvalho @ gmail.com

  9. Dano

    dano says:
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    sent guys – thanks

  10. yah says:
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    Ok but how does pitch dominance vary from year to year? Ie for Salazar, is it possible that having seen his FB hitters will look for something else?

    • AJ says:
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      @yah: Good point, this was my first question as well. Some guys, especially the ones with small sample sizes, have to have massive swings in pitch effectiveness from one year to the next. That’d be interesting to see the 2012 stats and how they compare to 2013 for those pitchers who were around for both years. I love stuff like this, though. I think it can be a huge advantage when judging talent. Just would like to see it over a longer period of time. Thanks for the work!

      • Dano

        dano says:
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        @AJ: totes mcgotes. There will definitely be swings and the main contingency is small sample sizes…This is still very descriptive vs. predictive, but it’s value is confirming whether a pitchers stuff can still induce solid whiff rates &/or groundballs….it gives us another level of outcomes vs. surface level outcomes like BABIP.

        Burch Smith got shelacked last year so he’ll be tossed off the radar by tons of people because of his surface stats, but he could be quite valuable if he had the opportunity/innings based on his pitch dominance.

Comments are closed.