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Time to move on from the 2013 data (quit livin’ in the past, man) and get to the 2014 SAGNOF previews. Just a disclaimer, these posts are mainly focused on guys who will go later in drafts or possibly even undrafted in some shallower leagues – in other words cheap. You won’t see much written about Billy Hamilton or Jean Segura or Jacoby Ellsbury around these parts since their stolen-base contributions will most likely cost you quite a bit. This is all about *not* paying for steals (Steals Ain’t Got NO Face).

I’ve got several posts planned here before the 2014 season starts, including a three parter on SAGNOF outfielders and one on SAGNOF middle infielders. There will also be a red light/green light team preview that will come out just before the season begins for all of us weekly match-up hounds to sink our teeth into. Since we’re not trying to pay for our steals, what better place to start than with three outfielders who don’t even have starting jobs at the moment?!…

Eric Young - 2013: 46 SB in 598 PA

The Mets signed Curtis Granderson and Chris Young this offseason, and while they’ve apparently tried trading both Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy, it hasn’t happened as of the writing of this post. This means EY2 finds himself as a fourth outfielder yet again, despite the fact that he provided a nice spark to the Mets atop their lineup in the second half of last year. (His 30 steals after the All-Star Break were the most in baseball.) While this might be seen as a bad thing by some, for us SAGNOF folk, it means he can be cheaply had once again simply by picking the wire or stashing in that last bench slot. In just under 600 plate appearances last year, Young stole 46 bags, good for second most in all of the majors behind only Jacoby Ellsbury. Keep in mind that Young has experience at second base as well and a lot can happen in the remaining off-season and early-part of the season. If the Mets do decide to move Murphy and give Young an everyday shot at the keystone, the newfound dual eligibility (OF/2B) will launch his fantasy value upwards. He’s definitely one to keep an eye on.

Rajai Davis - 2013: 45 SB in 360 PA

The 2013 King of SAGNOF landed in Detroit this offseason in what should prove to be a nice move by Dombroski. Davis will likely platoon with Andy Dirks and pinch run when needed. Davis has shown us already that he is more than capable of thriving in a platoon role, and he doesn’t seem to be slowing down with age. He sports a career .354 OBP against lefties, so those of us who like to use our Platoony Tunes should be able to find a lot of value in platooning Davis in our fantasy lineups. To put his 2013 season in perspective, he stole a base every 8 plate appearances, thanks to his pinch running opportunities and straight up nasty base stealing talent. In 51 attempts last year he was caught only 6 times, and his career success rate is 79% (that’s good – Tim Raines’ career SB% is second all time at 85%). Davis might be sitting on the wire after your draft, but don’t let him sit there long if stolen bases becomes a need for your squad. With another 400 plate appearances, he’s a good bet for another 35+ steals, and he’s been known to sprinkle in a half dozen homers on occasion for good measure.

Jarrod Dyson - 2013: 34 SB in 239 PA

If Davis is the King of SAGNOF, then surely Dyson is the prince. He actually stole bags at a more frequent clip than Davis with a steal for every 7 plate appearances. He only had 3 more pinch running steals (7) than Davis (4) if that’s what you were going to say next, so it’s not like he’s getting that crazy rate from pinch running all the time. In my opinion, he’s just as fast and just as talented. Problem is he has no clear role with the team like Davis does, especially since the Royals’ outfield got more crowded this offseason with the signing of Norichika Aoki. This makes him a riskier bet even for a bench slot, but should something shake up the Royals outfield (like an injury), Dyson’s wheels have value. As a left-handed hitter, he could see some starts against righties, but he’s not a reliable mixed league bench bat like Davis. That being said, I think Dyson is an exciting player and one of the better SAGNOF bargains out there given his limited playing time. He’s also shares his name with a kick-ass vacuum. Seriously, they look like spaceships.

Mike also writes for TheDynastyGuru. If you’re a tweeter on Twitter he’s @643ball

From Around The Web

  1. J-FOH says:
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    But Mike, Billy hasn’t played a full season in the bigs, you never know?

    *sarcasm*

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      @J-FOH: ha! great comment. I’m loving the back and forth on Hamilton all over the Interwebs

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Mike: I refuse to draft him before the 10th round and will instead choose, like every year to aim for 8-10 points in SB.

        I played in leagues where guys won SB by over 30 last year……and lost. What dumbasses

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          @J-FOH: that’s a smart play. Not certain, but I think one of the guys over at BaseballProf did a piece about when there is such a thing as too many steals…where you dominate the category by so much you actually hurt yourself in other areas. Still lots of options for steals this year after Billy…

          • J-FOH says:
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            @Mike: My problem is you are putting a lot of eggs in an un-woven basket. If you draft Billy then you most likely don’t over invest with anyone else. It’s a tough call when you have such a unique specialist.

            I tried to trade with the bag hoarders but nope, they felt the runs was too much to give up. I get as much amusement over strategies as I do with the commenters

            • Mike

              Mike says:
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              @J-FOH: filthy baghoarders…

              • J-FOH says:
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                @Mike: SAGNOF hoarders, people do the same with saves

                • James says:
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                  @J-FOH:

                  I am guilty of doing it with saves. I do not invest in a closer till round 14-18, but i literally grab 5 low end options. I generally end up hoarding them since i know none of them have a firm hold on thier jobs.

                  The nice part, in keepers/dynasty leagues the guys who were cheap saves last year, become more proven this year…. that is when i trade them for SP or a hitter and then grab a few more long shots. Looks like robertson may be on the block this year depending on how much the yankees fan wants him

    • Jay

      Jay says:
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      @J-FOH: TEASER! He’ll be appearing on my Bold Predictions this year.

      • Mike

        Mike says:
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        @Jay: Nice!

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Jay: Bold Predictions? he doesn’t play for the padres

        • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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          @J-FOH: no less than 80 steals for Headley!

  2. Count de Monetball says:
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    What is this a writer’s only comment thread. Hey, what do you guys think of Everth Cabrera for 2014. Will he be a stealing machine like in 2013?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      @Count de Monetball: ha! I think with a full season of plate appearances he’s a good bet for 55 SB…if not more.

  3. Fungazi says:
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    What do you think about a Michael Bourn bounceback? He will probably be pretty cheap after a down year. Chance he gets back up to 60 SB range?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      @Fungazi: he will be cheaper that’s for sure, but I wouldn’t recommend betting on speed bouncing back to those kinds of numbers. 60 SB is a lot and he is on the wrong side of 30 now. I wouldn’t pay for more than 35 SB from him and if you get more it’s all gravy…

      • @Mike:

        Ah, thanks for the advice I probably would’ve over paid…

  4. mike b says:
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    In a 10 team league, I have segura(27th) and marte(28th) as late round keepers which should help buoy my sb’s. What kind of totals do you envision from this pair? I’ve typically been drawn towards the players who can sprinkle in stats across the board, and I don’t want to hamstring my power stats too much already being locked into those two guys. Trying to get an start on my draft targets. Thanks!

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      @mike b: thanks mike. They are both nice players there and I think between the two of them it’s reasonable to expect 60-70 steals to go along with 20 homers

  5. Wake Up says:
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    Predicting an overall bounceback in steals this season?…predicting an overalls bounceback like in the late ’80s?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      @Wake Up: ha! I live in Ohio and out here they run commercials for a website called “FarmersOnly”, which is a singles site for farmers so I guess overalls could be on the comeback trail. As for steals, I’ll have to say I’m not optimistic after they fell by 500 last year from 3200+ in ’11 and ’12 and I still don’t see a ton of guys projected for big SB numbers. The whole “not running into outs” thing doesnt help either. Maybe Billy can swipe 200 and get us there…

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Mike: That’s fantastic! I grow organic peppers and garlic and can honestly say that I’ve never worn overalls……in the garden…

      • Pdiddy says:
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        @Mike: dear Lord that farmers only comercial KILLS me! And sadly I can’t stop humming the effing thing now…

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          @Pdiddy: haha yeah it’s bizarre…and catchy

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Mary Stuart Masterson’s son, Justin, will be wearing them when he takes the mound…

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Grey: Chris Carter always wears them under his uniform…to store all the dead rabbits that he’s petted to death…”Don’t pet the rabbits, Chris!”

        • Justin says:
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          @Wake Up: I hope no one gets Chris Carter a puppy… and which player wears the leather glove filled with vasaline? God I have not thought about Of Mice and Men since like seventh grade.

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          @Wake Up: ha! that’s great

  6. The Thumb says:
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    I know Count already mentioned him, but do you think the roids had a big impact on Everth’s bat? The 40+ steals from short are nice but is he more of the .290ish hitter, 8 homer (prorated) guy or do you think hes more of the .250 hitter that he’s been?

    He’ll be 27 this year…

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      @The Thumb: I’m actually really excited to see what Cabrera will do with a full season, and no I’m not really concerned with the ‘roids, but I’m hoping the other people in my draft rooms will be. I think he just struck out less (down 8.5%) and made better contact (up 7%) in 2013. I don’t see much to worry about unless he comes out of the gate whiffing at a 25% clip like he did in 2012. On the other hand, I don’t think 8 homers will happen, no.

  7. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    thanks,getting the fever for some drafting

  8. Kid A says:
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    Nailed the head, you did . Only a shame that it will lead to me trouncing jack again. Poor bastard.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      @Kid A: thanks!

  9. Sky

    Sky says:
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    I have this sneaking suspicion you and I are gonna talk about the same SS. For me, a deep league sleeper, for you just another feather in your SAGNOF cap. And together, we make a beautiful SAGNOF couple.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      @Sky: haha nice! it’s kind of like Voltron with all these tools and posts working together…I got dibs on the little green one

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        Did you just call me a tool?!? I’ll take the Blue Lion. Though I guess that means I’m wearing pink…

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          @Sky: haha…I feel a JayWrong photoshop in the making

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            Haha nice…I mean crap!

  10. JoeyBelle says:
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    Is there any chance AJax gets to 20 steals this year under a new coach? Can Span got to 25? Ive got both and would love to get 40 combined from the pair

    • AJax yes. I think Span more likely to be 15-20.

  11. Ryan says:
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    I agree, Dyson’s make vacuuming pleasurably!

Comments are closed.