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Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2013 (19) | 2012 (23) | 2011 (12) | 2010 (21) | 2009 (23)

2013 Affiliate Records
MLB: [92-70] NL West
AAA: [76-68] Pacific Coast League – Albuquerque
AA: [59-80] Southern League – Chattanooga
A+: [65-75] California League – Rancho Cucamonga
A: [67-72] Midwest League – Great Lakes

Graduated Prospects
Yasiel Puig (OF); Tim Federowicz (C); Scott Van Slyke (OF/1B); Hyun-jin Ryu (RHP); Stephen Fife (RHP); Paco Rodriguez (LHP)

The Run Down
After a holiday hiatus, we have returned to our MiLB preview series.  To get us back into prospect mode, let’s all scream Puig on three.  One, two, three, PUIG.  Good, we’re back.  We’re talking about the Dodgers today, a top-heavy farm, but a group that offers plenty of fantasy intrigue.  There’s a lot going on here from spots one to six, but things take a turn toward the boring when we reach the last four names of the top ten.  Still, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, and Julio Urias are all of the high-impact variety, while Zach Lee, Alexander Guerrero, and Chris Anderson should all develop into relevant fantasy pieces in their own right.  Combine those six with recent grads like Yasiel Puig and Hyun-jin Ryu, and this Dodgers org begins to take shape as one that develops well and spends wisely in the international markets.  That’s a particularly effective model for sustainable success.

Top Ten Fantasy Prospects
1.  Corey Seager, SS:  We’ll preface Seager’s capsule by noting that the 19-year-old probably won’t be playing shortstop by the time he surfaces in the majors.  No, he’s 6-foot-4 and is limited with regard to range, so it seems unlikely that he’ll hold up long-term at short.  With good hands and plenty of arm, though, Seager seems destined for the hot corner.  Obviously that shift will limit potential fantasy impact, but this is the type of talent whose impact can supersede positional factors.  In his first year of full-season ball, Seager hit .309/.389/.529 with 12 HR and 9 SB through 74 games at Low-A Great lakes, before finishing the year in the Cali League, where, for the first time in his pro career, he experienced some struggles.  He’ll get another shot at the hitter friendly environment of the California League in 2014, and given his impressive bat speed and hand-eye ability, I’m anticipating exciting numbers from Seager this coming season.  This is a top 40 overall prospect with potential to hit 25+ HR while batting in the neighborhood of .300.  That’ll play in any format.  ETA:  2016

2.  Joc Pederson, OF:  There was a period of time there last season when it appeared that Pederson would get a big league look before Puig.  It didn’t end up that way, of course, and I doubt there are any Dodgers fans out there who are second guessing that choice, but suffice to say that there were moments last spring when Pederson looked like the most MLB-ready option in the Chattanooga outfield.  That fact alone should speak volumes about the talent this 21-year-old possesses — talent enough to post a 20/20 season at the big league level immediately upon arrival.  Pederson will likely begin the 2014 season at Triple-A Albuquerque, but he’ll be one of the first names considered for the big league roster as soon as there’s a need.  ETA:  2014

3.  Julio Urias, LHP:  Urias had an astonishing year in the Midwest League, posting a 2.48 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a K/9 at 11.1 through 18 starts with Great Lakes.  That’s a tremendous year for anybody at any level, but consider the fact that Urias didn’t turn 17 until mid-August, and the line takes on a truly remarkable light — you just don’t find too many 16-year-old dominating at the full-season level.  With advanced command of a three-pitch repertoire (FB, CB, CH), he figures to push through the remaining levels quickly.  First things first, though, look for the Dodgers to extend his workload in 2014 at High-A Rancho (he only tossed 54 IP in 2013), on track for arrival in the upper levels in 2015.  ETA:  2016

4.  Zach Lee, RHP:  After a disappointing 2012, Lee bounced back into the prospect focus in 2013, posting a 3.22 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and a K/BB at a superb 3.74 in 28 outings at Double-A Chattanooga.  With a deep arsenal and an outstanding feel for pitching, the 22-year-old figures to be helping at the big league level as soon as this season.  And though his stuff lacks the high impact nature required of front-end starters, Lee features a durable frame, delivers with deception, and there’s every reason to believe that he’ll carve out a long-term role as a rotation regular.  There should be plenty of value for the fantasy game in that skill set.  ETA:  2014

5.  Alexander Guerrero, 2B:  I’ll be frank:  there isn’t that much out there on Guerrero, and I tend to be cautious when evaluating players for whom intel is scarce.  This approach has burned me before — I did the same with Puig, leaving him unranked in my preseason top 50 last season.  You’ve been warned.  Reports vary on the 27-year-old Cuban defector.  Some don’t believe in the hit tool and don’t see the raw power translating into in-game power.  The Dodgers, on the other hand, are believers in the entire offensive skill set, and are shelling out $28 million to Guerrero over the next four seasons.  I won’t be reaching for him in any upcoming drafts, but there’s upside here if he falls into your lap as a $1 flyer.  ETA:  2014

6.  Chris Anderson, RHP:  Drafted 18th overall this past June, Anderson made his pro debut at the Low-A level, posting a 1.96 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a K/9 at 9.8 through 12 starts.  The 21-year-old relies mostly on a fastball-slider combo that should draw plenty of whiffs as he moves through the next levels.  I’m projecting him as a solid mid-rotation arm for now, but continued success in the upper levels can change that outlook.  We’ll have a better feel at this time next season.  ETA:  2016

7.  Jose Dominguez, RHP:  With a fastball that sits in the elite velocity range and regularly touches 100 MPH, Dominguez has the type of arm that could be a weapon in a closer’s role.  There’s not much in his arsenal to backup that pitch, but if the 23-year-old can improve his command, he won’t need anything else.  ETA:  2014

8.  Matt Magill, RHP:  Magill started a handful of forgettable big league games in 2013, and while his production figures to improve in the years to come, it seems unlikely that he’ll ever amount to much more than a back-end starter.  He might be a guy you’ll stream in H2H given a juicy match-up or a two-start week, but he’ll never be a mainstay on your roster.  ETA:  2014

9.  Onelki Garcia, RHP:  There isn’t much to Garcia outside his impressive fastball-curve combo, which is why most evaluators have him pegged as a late-innings arm.  Still, if he can improve his command and efficiency, he has the ability to rack up whiffs at a significant rate, and that could prove useful in the fantasy game.  ETA:  2014

10.  Chris Reed, LHP:  Like Magill, Reed’s upside appears to be at the back-end of the big league rotation.  He was a first-round pick in 2011, but don’t let the lofty draft status fool you — the 23-year-old doesn’t miss many bats and he doesn’t bring much intrigue to fantasy leagues outside of the occasional stream.  ETA:  Late 2014

From Around The Web

  1. goodfold2 says:
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    with my complete dearth at CI and OF prospects I took Jagielo at 20th overall. these other guys were still available: shipley P ARI/nelson P MIL/renfroe OF SD/stanek P TB/crawford SS PHI/clarkin LP NYY/manaea P LP KC/ a.gonzalez P TEX/ Ynoa P OAK/Kaminsky LP STL. Just missed D.Smith 1B NYM one pick ahead of me. With a lot of other OF that I may be able to get at pick 50 (Judge NYY/Williamson SF/McKinney OAK/Wilson SEA/Y.Rodriquez CIN/Barreto TOR/Toles TB/Lorenzen CIN) i figured grabbing the seemingly only high ranked CI left was the way to go. Sound good or did i screw up by not grabbing Renfroe or Shipley? We seem to be drafting about 7 guys per day so it will take us a long time to finish it.

    • @goodfold2: No that pick is totally acceptable, but this snail’s pace draft must be frustrating!

    • @goodfold2:

      As a Yanks fan I have blind confidence in Eric Jagielo succeeding, but I like you would have preferred Domonic Smith. Of the guys you mentioned as still available I am very surprised to see Michael Ynoa still out there. From this years draft, I think JP Crawford and Brandon Shipley are the best available. But if Hunter Harvey is there I would put him above both.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Andy Singleton:shipley seems to be big time dude. still out there after pick 22. i might get ynoa at 50. harvey went early. thanks for advice here andy (along with scott).

        • @goodfold2:

          Anytime… I’m not as big as Scott yet, but working my way there

  2. ck says:
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    FYI – typo on Lee’s WHIP. Should be 1.17, not 1.71. His 3.37 FIP also worth noting.

  3. Joebob says:
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    Hi Scott– please rank–

    Jonathon Grey, Lucas Sims, Robert Stephonson. Who do you like in the near and far if you had to pick one first? Thanks.

    • @Joebob: Very close between Gray & Stephenson, but I lean toward Gray right now… can’t go wrong with either, really. Sims is quite impressive himself, but he’s quite a ways behind the other two developmentally, so he’d be the riskiest option. Gray should be first of this group to make an impact.

    • @Joebob:

      All 3 figure to be plus arms, with Sims being the furthest away. Gray and Stephenson both have a chance to get innings in the bigs this summer, and both can have dominating careers. A lot will say the Coors aspect won’t affect Gray’s arsenal, but it still worries me. For that reason alone I would put Stephenson 1, and Gray 1A. They are on the same line as far as arrival time. Sims is much more speculation right now, and as good as he can be, shouldn’t be in the same conversation.

  4. TheNewGuy says:
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    First of all happy new year bud!

    Been waiting for a post of yours to arise. You know im looking for a big prospect bat, well got news that Fatt (Matt) Adams is available from the new team in my league. Will post up his offers but for now, what do you see him becoming in his prime, a yearly 30/100 threat? And also whats the situation on his playing time for next year with all the pieces they have, should he be an everyday regular (or just a righty killer)?

    Got a couple of offers to work on, but for now let me know how high on him you are. I do like his swing and see a lot of promise there if he can get regular AB’s, and it’s a great lineup to hit in. Would you prefer him to Springer straight up (both $0 values)?

    • @TheNewGuy: I do see Adams as a 30/100 guy & he’s positioned to be the regular 1B as it stands right now in STL. I’d take Adams over Springer as he’s proven he can hit at the highest level & questions still remain about the utility of Springer’s hit tool.

      • TheNewGuy says:
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        @Scott Evans: Really, so you’d like a Adams for Bradley deal straight up then (that was one of the offers)? Our league values OBP over AVG if that matters too.

        I do need a big bat on my farm, particularly one that is already in the majors, so I could promote him right away at the start of the season, and I still don’t know when Bradley will be up. Adams does seem to have all the hitting skills, and it’s nice to know he can handle major league pitching when you’re trading for a prospect.

        What makes you think Adams will remain a regular 1B once Taveras gets into the mix, think they make a trade elsewhere? You’re the Cards expert but even without Beltran there could be a logjam once Taveras gets the call, and I was thinking that could lead to Craig moving to 1B, or just that annoying 2 days on 1 off sorta formula that fantasy owners dislike.

        • @TheNewGuy: I’m not sure how or when the Cardinals plan to utilize Oscar this season, but it seems he’s on the outside looking in at the start of things. Best thing for the club would be for Taveras to surface as a CF, pushing Jay/Bourjos to the bench.

          I would take Adams for Bradley.

          • TheNewGuy says:
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            @Scott Evans: You think Taveras has the defensive capabilities to play centre? That would be the ideal scenario, I’ve heard he’s more of a corner OF though, and that could lead to a logjam.

            Better 1 bird in the hand than 2 in the bush though I guess, or however that saying goes. Trying to milk the new team im doing the deal with and get back a higher pick in the prospect draft too.

            • @TheNewGuy: Oscar is a RF long-term, but he can probably cut it in center while he has his youth.

              • goodfold2 says:
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                @Scott Evans: craig WILL get hurt at some point, oscar will be starting at that point. probably also plays right on lefty days or craig off days, as adams CANNOT hit lefties at all.

                • TheNewGuy says:
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                  @goodfold2: Haha thats true, it is Allen Craig we are talking about. Lets hope I can get it done.

              • TheNewGuy says:
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                @Scott Evans: Got it done. Would probably have accepted it straight up, but managed to negotiate a pick out of it too, going from 17th in my prospect draft to 4th! Think I bled the new team dry here, heres the deal:

                I get Matt Adams and his 1st round pick
                He gets Archie Bradley and my 2nd round pick

                Did I do good then?
                Not only having a usable player for next year in Adams, also now allowing me to get a darned good prospect in our upcoming draft. No doubt ill be asking who you think will be worth drafting soon!

  5. Yeshcheese says:
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    Thoughts on A Cobb vs Gio in a 14t 25man roster dynasty?

  6. Will says:
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    Thoughts on Jonathan Lucroy’s season? Is it likely to be similar for years to come?

    • @Will: I think we can expect another year or two of that same brand of production, but I wouldn’t bank on it as he pushes closer to age 30.

    • @Sky: LOL this needs no further comment

  7. Dan says:
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    Where would you rank these guys for future fantasy value?
    Aaron Altherr
    Nick Ciuffo
    Blake Snell
    Mark Sappington

    • @Dan: Altherr with best ceiling by far… Snell & Sappington could pan out, but both have hurdles to overcome… Ciuffo is a defense-fist catcher…

  8. goodfold2 says:
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    do you have any idea who elroy jimenez CUBS OF is? he was just taken immediately after renfroe at pick 26. I can’t find this guy anywhere as to when he was drafted and certainly isn’t on a CUBS team top 10 list.

  9. goodfold2 says:
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    also my 2nd round (50th overall) pick is up in 9 picks. I’ll get one of Ynoa P OAK/Ciuffo C TB (but i have d’arnaud)/bickford P TOR/travis MI DET (already have a ton of MI)/robbie ray P DET (was CLE)/Denney C BOS/Meija C CLE/fields MI DET/williamson OF SF/wilson OF SEA/Blair P ARI/balog P COL/de sciafani P CIN/plawecki 1b/c NYM/cooney P STL. i don’t pick again until pick 112. I’m guessing Ynoa is the way to go, but who’s 2nd or 3rd if he’s gone?

    • @goodfold2: Take Ynoa or a pitcher w/ upside… do not take a catcher … wouldn’t even bother with a guy like Ciuffo.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Scott Evans: ok that leaves ray DET/beck WSOX/blair ARI/desclafani MIA/balog COL/cooney LP STL/wahl OAK/h.green LAA/reyes STL/e.escobar SF. i’m reading that beck/blair/desclafani aren’t really high upside types. which 2 of those others would be first behind Ynoa? The only one I’m reading could make a RP (and a good one) is Wahl. the rest are all expected to be starters, but hard for me to tell which 1-2 behind Ynoa I should grab.

        • goodfold2 says:
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          @goodfold2: also Bickford TOR should be in that list.

          • Chris says:
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            @goodfold2:

            I don’t really have any advice to give, but I would be very interested to see the results of your draft (first 40-50 picks). Could you post those results somewhere or email them to me if you get a chance? I have a similar draft coming up (with less teams, but still fairly deep).

            • goodfold2 says:
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              @Chris: i’ll put it up in a couple hours.

              • goodfold2 says:
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                @goodfold2: here we go. 30 team. before this draft (and after) the max amount of minor league players per team is 20. average per team is 13 or so. I’ll do it round by round
                Round 1
                1. Tanaka
                2.Bryant CI CUBS
                3. Abreu CI WSOX
                4.H.Harvey P BAL
                5.A.Guerrero MI LAD (way too high)
                6.A. Meadows OF PIT
                7. Appel P HOU
                8.Gray P COL
                9. Frazier OF CLE (should’ve gone higher)
                10.Stewart P MIN
                11.Ervin OF CIN
                12. peterson CI SEA
                13. dozier CI/MI KC (i thought he was just SS, but eh)
                14.moran CI MIA (apparently isn’t likely to be much of a power hitter)
                15. MAG P PHI
                16.Ball OF/P BOS
                17.McGuire C PIT
                18.Crawford P DET
                19.smith 1B NYM
                20.Jagielo CI NYY (ME)
                21.Anderson P LAD
                22. Gonzales P STL
                23.Shipley P ARI
                24.Tapia OF COL (real early)
                25.Renfroe OF SD (really late)
                26.Eloy Jimenz OF CUBS
                27.Stanek P TB (injured or goes higher)
                28.Manaea P KC
                29.Crawford SS PHI
                30.Clarkin P NYY

                • Chris says:
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                  @goodfold2:

                  Thanks! This is very interesting… How in the world did Harvey get picked before Appel and Gray?! That is just ridiculous. Meadows coming off the board before Frazier is also very surprising. Manaea at #28 could end up being a huge steal!

                  • goodfold2 says:
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                    @Chris: i just got Ynoa at 50th. It seems like the routes people are taking in their draft selections are by and large
                    1. their own favorites (if possible, this one seems rare)
                    2. news hype (tanaka/abreu)
                    3. 2013 draft spot taken
                    So their blind spot seems to be guys who were not taken in 2013 draft but also are not big news (usually young) foreigners. My only blind spot are the foreigners (if they aren’t on scott or BA’s top 10 or 15 lists). this being the case I might get R.Ray P DET (used to be WAS), Y.rodriguez OF CIN/ Plawecki 1b/C NYM/ Barreto OF TOR/ Toles OF TB/ Moya OF DET at 112th overall. those guys are all scott list top 6 but were all drafted pre-2013.

                  • goodfold2 says:
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                    @Chris:
                    Round 2.
                    1.mckinney OF OAK
                    2.kaminsky P STL
                    3.anderson SS WSOX
                    4.hursh P ATL
                    5. susac C SF
                    6.arroyo MI SF
                    7.a.gonzalez P TEX
                    8.judge OF NYY
                    9.bostick P STL
                    10.mcmahon CI COL
                    11.lastella MI ATL
                    12.williamson OF SF
                    13.betts MI BOS
                    14. wahl P OAK
                    15.travis MI DET
                    16.MAZ OF WSOX
                    17.johnson MI WSOX
                    18.knebel P DET
                    19.reyes P STL
                    20.ynoa P OAK (me yeah, did get him)
                    21.katoh MI NYY
                    22.windle P LAD
                    23.escobar P SF
                    24.bird CI NYY
                    25.ray P DET
                    26.julio P COL
                    27.pinto C MIN
                    28.wilson OF SEA
                    29.encarcion CI PHI
                    30.ciuffo C TB
                    13.

          • goodfold2 says:
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            @Scott Evans: got it, wahl got taken 2 picks ago, but ray and ynoa there with one pick to go till me.

  10. goodfold2 says:
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    another guy who isn’t on anybody’s top ten list MAZ (Zapata WSOX) just got taken. is he any good?

    • @goodfold2: Plenty of upside, but at age 16, he’s an extreme long-term investment.

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