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We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2014 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2014 Dodgers Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Mike Petriello from Dodgers Digest.

1) Grey is projecting a line of 87/25/94/.272/18 for Hanley Ramirez in 2014. What’s your take on Hanley in his contract year?

If he’s healthy, he’ll hit. There’s no question about that. Obviously the following statement is a bit flawed since he had only 336 plate appearances, but his wOBA was higher than anyone else in the sport other than Miguel Cabrera. Despite the limited playing time, he still put up 20 homers and 10 steals. Imagine that over a full season? He’s happy in Los Angeles, he’s years off of the shoulder injury and unhappiness that limited him in Miami, and he’s motivated to get what might be the last big contract of his career.

Unfortunately, the injuries just never seemed to stop last year. First it was his thumb, then his hamstring, then his shoulder, then his back, then his ribs. You can argue that several of those were fluke occurrences, and they were, but it doesn’t mean the missed time wasn’t real, and it doesn’t mean we can just assume none of that is going to happen in 2014. You’ll draft him highly because he’s an elite hitter at a very valuable position, and you’ll be right to do so… just make sure you have a decent backup plan available.

2) What should fantasy players make of Alexander Guerrero? Is he worth a roll of the dice in fantasy considering how shallow second base seems to be this year?

Of course. The good news here is that everybody is pretty confident about his bat. Maybe don’t expect superstar level offense, but above-average offense for the position doesn’t seem unreasonable. The problem is that the reports on his defense as he transitions from shortstop to second have been less than encouraging, and while fantasy doesn’t consider defense, it does matter if that defense is poor enough that it costs him playing time. The hope is that it will come with experience, since he didn’t play last year in Cuba and was limited in winter ball by a hamstring pull after signing with the Dodgers. Still, it’s not out of the question that he spends the first few weeks of the year fine-tuning his skills in the minors before coming up, so that may hurt his fantasy value.

3) What’s more likely in 2014: 20+ steals for Dee Gordon or 25+ homers for Matt Kemp? Or neither…

Kemp, but probably neither. There’s no question that Gordon can run, but that’s about it. He’s been one of the worst hitters in baseball over his career, and his defense at shortstop was so bad that he’s now some sort of hybrid 2B/CF, which is fine, except now he can’t hit and has no clear path to playing time. You’ll hear a lot about how well he played in winter ball and that he’s added some bulk to his frame, but it’s all just talk until he proves it on the field. He won’t get that chance unless Guerrero falters, however, and even then the Dodgers have added several other guys to the 2B competition.

For Kemp, he was limited so badly by his shoulder last year, but it was really a very badly injured ankle that finished his season. He still hasn’t begun running yet, and seems more likely than not to be out of the Opening Day lineup, though it shouldn’t be too deep into April before he gets in. Even so, the combination of his injuries and the excess outfielders the Dodgers have mean that if the Dodgers even get 130 games out of him, I think most fans would take it. Kemp is talented enough that he could hit 25 homers in that amount of playing time, especially now that his shoulder has had another year to heal, but after last year, that’s tough to bet on.

4) Hyun-Jin Ryu had a successful rookie year and didn’t seem to wear down as the season progressed. Should fantasy owners invest in him to maintain or even improve in 2014?

Not only did he not wear down, he improved in the second half, with an outstanding 61/10 K/BB over his last 12 starts, and playing on a team like the Dodgers ought to keep him swimming in wins. (I love fantasy baseball, but lord do I hate having to care about pitcher wins.) It’s perfectly reasonable for him to maintain this skill set, but probably not realistic to expect him to improve. Besides the fact that hitters will now have a lot more video and scouting on him than they did last year, Ryu already posted a 3.00 ERA and his skillset is not of the kind of ace pitcher that is going to give you a 2.80. Most of the projection systems so far have him at around a 3.20-3.40 ERA, and that’s about right, and he’ll collect some whiffs while not hurting you with walks or strikeouts. I’ll give him an 80% of maintaining the same level, 15% of declining, and only 5% to do better. Still, maintaining keeps him as a valuable asset.

5) Bigger number this season: the amount of fantasy teams called the “Bay of PUIGs” or the amount of times some broadcaster mentions Puig’s “brash style of play” or “disrespect for the game of baseball”.

The latter, obviously. As a history major, I appreciate a good reference to international conflicts from five decades ago more than most, but somehow I feel like the present-day sports fan isn’t going to have that at the front of their minds. “That’ll do, Puig,” for sure. “ManBearPuig,” probably. But crotchety old men decrying the downfall of our nation’s youth? That’s a great taste that never gets old.

 

You can follow Mike on Twitter @643ball

From Around The Web

  1. elipitt says:
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    Since I can’t find an answer there, does anyone doing ESPN mocks know if you can use custom rankings? Thanks!

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      so far, I’ve only been able to set custom rankings for actual leagues

  2. Ghost of the Disappeared says:
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    MIKE: I would like to take this opportunity to say, The MIKE Show is the one place serious, FBBers can go to (besides, Rudy’s numbers mill – where the noise from those electrical clappers on his calculator from the factory floor can be deafening ) and enjoy real adult fantasy MLB adult talk without all the childish silliness found elsewhere on RB. Folks who are familiar with me on here know, I’m a “No Fooling Around” serious poster when it come to FBB. So thank you Mike, for providing this refuge for those of us who want to behave like mature adults on RazzBall.

    Disclaimer: I loath the Dodgers… Not so fast in jumping to conclusions… I hate the Giants.

    #1. Great question for the Dodgers and ESPN FBB league play this year. Why both???
    I believe, the DL expansion will have a noticeable effect on play in ESPN. More of the puddles top players are going to be on team rosters throughout the season. I looking at as many multi position ELI players as possible. This both expands your team internally and allows for better puddle poaching in season.

    H-Ram is a tough call for 1st round… One, I’m driving by this year for sure. You are spot on with con’t injuries issues… The lad has become a near training room queen. Also, his speed is dropping off now. He is a 2ND ROUNDER for me this year…

    Reyes is looking like a better choice later in the early rounds of draft this year to me. I’m even liking him better than the ??? marked highly pimped Segura too.

    #2 Guerrero is on extreme ST watch for me… He is moving up my charts (if you could see my 2nd available to me chart based on my projected selection round for my 2nd baseman – you would vomit. It’s now starting after Dozier is long gone – at about Kelly Johnson – who, I think may be on his way to a career year – perhaps even a massive one by his standards – he “plays” well in Yankee stadium – upticks in everything possible. plus he plays at 6 ESPN positions by the end of April)

    Right! We are talking about the Cuban Alex. Sorry …No wonder, he left Cuba see video

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/-pitcher-attacked-with-bat-during-wild-cuban-baseball-brawl–video-175231255.html

    Ouch!!!

    I’m always concerned with Cuban batters – are they going to be able to thrive above the AAish average mix of pitching found in Cuba. It is MLB after all. He has no history of SBs – 10 total in 13 attemps in 2250 ABs there – we are talking NO speed here. One must assume we are looking at 4 cats for him only – A slow Y. Escobar at 2nd??? I doubt, he goes double digit in taters… And is he a full time player??? – His range on D may be his ultimate Achilles’s heel ..

    23 – 25 round ESPN = Maybe pick for me now at best… S.T. WATCH ALERT!!!

    #3 WOW another great question …. How to answer?? Separate them first.

    Kemp is buried in ESPN rankings – he may move up farther and higher than all the top players drafted – but for Gyorko and Segura… IF IF healthy, he is a stud… I will be betting on the benefits of good health, I will draft him in the 4th round of still there.

    Gordon: Is he working out at 2nd this spring – he sure is — If he is getting a lot of work there, it affects the #2 question as much as this one. Plus, H-Ram may be seeing time at 3rd too. Does he make the team??? He is listed as the sole MI backup on most depth charts – a good place to be with this team.

    I think, they both could be there at those totals if things go right for them… But answering today, I’m going with KEMP WINS… That does not mean that Gordon could not turn out to be one of the super sleepers of the year… He could be huge.

    #4 This question is beyond my BS abilities . I yield to the huckster, Mr Snake Oil in Chief, the Lidless Eye himself for this type of BS… I’m not drafting him – will have to be my answer… He’s looking better as a poach from the puddle after his original owner gets sick of him early and has tossed him back.

    #5 What can one hope to add to your eloquence here…. Except, VIVA CASTRO AND LONG LIVE THE PEOPLE’S REVOLUTION IN CUBA!!!!

    Aaaaahhh…. Take was a relaxing and enjoyable adult FBB time … Thanks, Mike…

    Makes one hate the thought of having to cross the RazzBall playground when leaving here.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Thanks Ghost

      I probably won’t touch Guerrero, but Kemp is a guy I’m hoping gets thrown back in a couple keepers. I like Ryu a lot. He was one of the arms I traded for last year and was pleasantly surprised to see him keep trucking through til the end of the season. At 27, he’s one of my SP targets this year.

      Appreciate the comments as always :)

      • Ghost of the Disappeared says:
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        @Mike:

        Mike: RotoWorld Link says, Gordon is now the front runner to start at 2nd this season… Where does that put him on the charts… With little speed at 2nd this year… It could really vault him up the lists..

        Alex to AAA… Is this another Nakajima like international first year bust situation developing..

        Still think, Naka gets some time up this year in Oakland

        • Mike

          Mike says:
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          Wow, that’s interesting. I had heard he stole 2 or 3 bags already. Could be a steal (no pun intended) if somebody snags him late and he ends up with the gig. Still don’t trust the bat but he’s SAGNOF all the way.

  3. stan kankels says:
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    Would love Gray’s advice on this mock here. Followed his rankings to a T.

    C – Gomes
    1B – Freeman (keeper)
    2B – Hill
    3B – Edwin
    SS – Reyes (4th round, I had no choice)
    OF – Adam Jones (8th pick)
    OF – Alex Gordon
    OF – Dexter Fowler
    UTIL – Albert Pujols (3rd round)
    UTIL – Adrian Gonzalez
    UTIL – Kyle Seager
    BNCH – Brad Miller
    BNCH – Jose Abreu
    BNCH – Kole Kalhoun
    BNCH – Khris Davis
    BNCH – Avaisail Garcia

    SP- Adam Wainwright (keeper)
    SP – Zack Greinke (keeper)
    SP – Salazar (first Sp took 10th round)
    RP – Koji
    RP – Rosnethal
    P – Rodney
    P – Fister
    BNCH – Sonny Gray
    BNCH – Chris Tillman
    BNCH – AJ Griffin

  4. mcBlunty says:
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    need 7 keepers, 2 need to be pitchers, h2h cat league

    a pujols
    j hamilton
    j profar
    o tavares
    m harvey
    g cole
    m wacha
    a chapman
    c yeloch
    d gregorius

    is hamilton still worth keeping? i have 1st and 5th pick in the draft, as well as 5 more picks in the 2nd and 3rd rd combined, i dont draft after the 10th round (out of 18 rds) because of trades i made last year so i have a chance to rebuild and reload and and compete at the same time, love the site and thanks for the advice

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Anytime…I like the top-heavy picks.

      I’d lose Didi, Hamilton, and Wacha

  5. Eric says:
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    Hi Mike, what will Josh Beckett’s role be this year?

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I’m guessing if there’s no setbacks he’ll join the rotation once he’s ready, which might not be until after the season begins (mid/late-April).

  6. sn24 says:
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    Nothing to do with the Dodgers, but should I drop Asdrubal Cabrera for Mike Moustakas? I can put Brad Miller into my SS slot and have Moustakas on my bench in case he heats up. He’s been pretty good during spring training and I’m not a fan of Asdrubal at all (missed my draft and didn’t get a chance to set pre draft rankings)

    • kangaroo hops says:
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      @sn24: It might depend on whether or not your team’s BA can withstand a craptacular Moosetacos year like last. Assume he hits .250–is that going to sink your team? If not, I say run with him and see if he turns the corner. I am.

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      Agree with Hops

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      haha

    • Mike

      Mike says:
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      I remember when that was your avatar on Twitter for a while :)

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Mike: Nice catch

    • Ben R says:
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      @J-FOH: That’s Some Puig!

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