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Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2012 (5) | 2011 (4) | 2010 (19) | 2009 (19) | 2008 (25)

2012 Affiliate Records
MLB: [73-89] AL East
AAA: [79-64] Pacific Coast League – Las Vegas (IL Buffalo beginning 2013)
AA: [61-81] Eastern League – New Hampshire
A+: [78-55] Florida State League – Dunedin
A: [82-55] Midwest League – Lansing
A(ss):  [46-30] Northwest League — Vancouver

Graduated Prospects
Anthony Gose (OF); Moises Sierra (OF); Drew Hutchison (RHP)

The Run Down
Travis D’Arnaud, Noah Syndegaard, and Jake Marisnick would’ve been fun Blue Jays prospects to write about, but none of them are here anymore.  What’s left is young.  Very young.  And as we know, youth is volatile.  On the bright side, most of the more promising prospects here are pitchers, and nowadays it’s imperative to have a deep core of young pitching on the farm.  But given the uncertain nature of most of these guys, I imagine that this top ten will look dramatically different a year from now — Davis, Smoral, Osuna, Norris, and Nay could each move forward toward high-impact status.  Conversely, they might be afterthoughts next off-season if they struggle in 2013.  In any case, this will be an interesting system to track.  And keep an eye on Stroman and Nolin — both could be useful in the fantasy game this year.

Top Ten Prospects
1.  Aaron Sanchez, RHP:
  Sanchez was nothing short of dominant in his first year of full-season baseball, posting a 2.49 ERA and a K/9 at 9.7 in 25 games at Lansing.  His stuff is top-notch, featuring plus-plus heat, a filthy breaker, and a plus changeup to round out the repertoire.  At this moment, Sanchez is caught up in the second tier of pitching prospects, but if/when he gets his command working, he’ll push his way into the top tier.  The frame is projectable, the stuff is elite, and Sanchez is a safe bet to reach #2 starter potential, with just a glimmer of ace upside.  ETA:  2014

2.  Sean Nolin, LHP:  Nolin features a deep, refined repertoire (FB, CB, SL, CH), and plenty of size to handle a big league workload (6-5, 235).  Stuff-wise, he’s a tick or two above average, but the 23-year-old possesses an advanced feel for pitching, which allows his arsenal to play up.  For now, Nolin pitches to contact, and is efficient on the mound, but an improving slider could give him a wipeout offering and elevate his fantasy appeal.  Expect to see him in Toronto at some point this year.  ETA:  2013

3.  D.J. Davis, OF:  Elite speed and an outstanding glove should suffice to bring Davis to the bigs one day, but there’s also intrigue at the plate here.  The 18-year-old hasn’t logged much time outside of instructional leagues, so none of his numbers at this point are particularly relevant, but reports suggest that the young, athletic outfield could develop into the above-average range with regard to both power and hitting.  Long way to go, but Davis will be an exciting guy to keep an eye on as he ventures into full-season ball this spring.  ETA:  2016

4.  Marcus Stroman, RHP:  I wrote a brief scouting report on Stroman before the draft last June.  Most of that writeup still holds true, as the 21-year-old was hit with a 50-game stimulant suspension shortly after being drafted.  Toronto seems to be content with developing him as a relief pitcher, and if that’s indeed the case, we’ll surely see him in the bigs this year.  ETA:  2013

5.  Roberto Osuna, RHP:  Like Davis, Osuna will step up to Low-A Lansing this season for his first taste of full-season ball.  Advanced stuff allowed him to post a K/9 north of 10 in 12 appearances between rookie-level and short-season ball.  At just 18-years-old, his already-plump frame is a tad concerning for the long-term, but Toronto is hopeful that talent will shine through in this case.  ETA:  2016

6.  Matt Smoral, LHP:  At 6-8, 220 Smoral is quite a presence on the mound.  Unfortunately, though, we’ve yet to see him there in a professional capacity — the 2012 50th overall pick broke his foot last spring and hasn’t pitched since.  His length and left-handedness will draw inevitable comps to Randy Johnson.  The power slider also conjures RJ.  But none of that means anything until we see him take the hill as a pro.  ETA:  2017

7.  Santiago Nessy, C:  Plus power potential and adequate defensive projection has Nessy looking like a future fantasy asset at a premium position.  He’ll move up to Low-A Lansing for a full-season assignment in 2013, but as always with catching prospects, be patient.  ETA:  2016

8.  Daniel Norris, RHP:  The 2011 second-rounder posted an ERA at 8.44 and a WHIP at 1.78 in 13 games between rookie-level and short-season ball in 2012.  Scouting reports remain positive, however, so perhaps his 3.81 FIP is a better indicator as to his performance last season.  He’ll try to be a little more impressive on paper as he steps up to full-season ball in 2013.  ETA:  2016

9.  Christian Lopes, 2B:  Bat-first 2B shows a plus hit tool, and flashes a bit of pop too.  He’s yet another Blue Jays product who’s yet to play full-season ball, but the glove profiles well up the middle, and if the bat continues to develop, he’ll be a useful fantasy MI one day.  ETA:  2016

10.  Mitch Nay, 3B:  I might be guilty of digging for fantasy upside with this 10th slot, but that’s what we’re here for, isn’t it?  A supplemental first-rounder last June, Nay is touted for outstanding raw power, but injury has pushed back his pro debut to this April.  We’ll know more in a few months, but the upside is there.  ETA:  2017

From Around The Web

  1. t,t,t,t,t'day JR! says:
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    I think the Jays are sending Stroman to A+ and pitch as a starter

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      I hadn’t seen that nugget, but that’s good news for long-term fantasy value. Thanks for the heads-up!

  2. fri-guy says:
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    Scott, how would you rank 3B prospects currently in the minors, say maybe your top 5-10–or if that’s in another post, please direct me. Thanks and keep up the great prospect work!

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      Bogaerts (SS/3B), Baez (SS/3B), Castellanos, Rendon, Sano, Olt … that’s my top 6 & there’s a bit of a gap after this group.

      Note: Bogaerts/Baez/Castellanos/Sano all could end up in the outfield.

      • fri-guy says:
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        @Scott Evans: muchas gracias! i have sano in my dynasty league, just wanted to see if a course correction was needed (I have Zimmerman as my everyday).

        • Scott Evans

          Scott Evans says:
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          You’re in good shape, but of those guys that I mentioned might end up in the outfield, Sano is probably the most likely… keep that in mind.

          • fri-guy says:
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            @Scott Evans: last question…what would his value be in a dynasty league if he does switch positions, still worth holding?

            • Scott Evans

              Scott Evans says:
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              Definitely worth holding. Sano has best raw power in the minors.

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