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Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2012 (7) | 2011 (6) | 2010 (17) | 2009 (14) | 2008 (3)

2012 Affiliate Records
MLB: [97-65] NL Central
AAA: [51-93] International League – Louisville
AA: [68-70] Southern League – Pensacola
A+: [72-68] California League – Bakersfield
A: [60-78] Midwest League – Dayton

Graduated Prospects
Zack Cozart (SS); Devin Mesoraco (C)

The Run Down
Cincinnati is coming off of a 97-win season, and while it’s tough to expect that kind of success on a year-to-year basis, I really don’t see much regression out of the Reds this season, or for the next few seasons either.  The pitching depth that Cincy has accumulated in their farm system is outstanding — there are high-impact arms at every level, and there’s plenty of fantasy intrigue given that most of these young pitchers are of the lots-o-whiffs variety.  The bats of this system are a little less appealing, but not completely lacking.  Jesse Winker is a young player with a huge ceiling at the plate, and Henry Rodriguez is ready to make an impact in the fantasy game at 2B as soon as there’s an opportunity for him.  Oh, and there’s also this Hamilton dude.  He’s a big time slugger, or something.

Top Ten Prospects
1.  Billy Hamilton, OF:
  Hamilton has unprecedented speed, and with it, he’ll undoubtedly have an impact on the fantasy game.  But before the Reds can feel comfortable using him, he needs to log more time in CF (only 17 pro appearances thus far), and he also needs to prove that his hit tool is adequate versus Triple-A arms — AAA repertoires are deeper and pitchers are more savvy with sequencing than what Hamilton faced last year.  Lots of folks are anticipating a mid-season arrival for the 22-year-old, but I doubt we see him before September.  More thoughts on Hamilton in my Top 50 Prospects for 2013 post, where he ranked #45.  ETA:  Late 2013

2.  Robert Stephenson, RHP:  The 2011 first-rounder was quite impressive in his first year of pro ball, posting a 3.18 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9 in 65 IP between rookie ball and Low-A.  It’s early in his development, but Stephenson features a plus-plus fastball along with two secondary offerings (curve, change) that project above average.  That sort of arsenal has him looking like a front-end guy.  It’ll be interesting to see how he handles a bigger workload in 2013.  ETA:  2015

3.  Tony Cingrani, LHP:  Cingrani was thoroughly impressive in 25 starts between High- and Double-A:  1.73 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.6 K/9.  The 23-year-old lefty rode that success to a late-season call-up, during which he whiffed 9 big league hitters in just 5 IP out of the ‘pen.  For now, he’s primarily a fastball-changeup kind of guy, but his curveball is coming around.  A deeper arsenal would be better for his long-term projection, but in any case, Cingrani’s stuff as-is should suffice to rack up plenty of K’s.  More on him in my Top 50 for 2013 post, where he ranked #32.  ETA:  2013

4.  Daniel Corcino, RHP:  Thanks to his Dominican descent and smallish frame, Corcino draws a ton of comps to Johnny Cueto.  In a full season at Double-A, the 22-year-old posted a 3.01 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a K/9 at 7.9.  His arsenal is deep, and scouts are thinking he’s ready for a look in the bigs.  Any immediate opportunity would come in the bullpen, though, so if the Reds are content to continue Corcino’s development as a starter, expect to see him in the Louisville rotation to begin the year.  ETA:  2013

5.  Jesse Winker, OF:  After being drafted 49th overall last June, Winker was assigned to short-season Billings in the rookie-level Pioneer League.  There, he hit an impressive .338/.443/.500.  Winker is primed to step up to full-season ball in 2013 at age 19.  If the success at the plate continues, expect quite a bit more notoriety.  ETA:  2016

6.  Nick Travieso, RHP:  Drafted out of high school at #14 overall last June, Travieso is yet to pitch outside of the complex league as a pro.  Scouting reports are very high on the 19-year-old, and many see front-of-the-rotation potential.  There’s a long way to go here, though.  Expect Travieso to reach Low-A by year’s end.  ETA:  2016

7.  Dan Langfield, RHP:  Drafted out of college in the third round last June, Langfield was given a modest assignment to rookie-level Billings, as the Reds tweaked some things mechanically.  Subsequent dominant numbers (2.68 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 13.1 K/9) weren’t necessarily surprising considering the low-level competition.  Still, the 22-year-old features a mid-90s heater, and he counters with two nice breaking ball offerings (slider, curve).  He should be on a faster track in 2013.  ETA:  2015

8.  Kyle Lotzkar, RHP:  The 23-year-old has posted impressive K figures at every stop (career 10.6 K/9), but lost command of his stuff at Double-A down the stretch last year.  He’ll return to Pensacola this April, and if he can find consistency, he won’t be long for the minors.  Yet another SP with mid-rotation potential, and fantasy allure thanks to whiffs.  ETA:  2014

9.  Henry Rodriguez, 2B:  Rodriguez is a bat-first 2B, and he’s ready for a look in the bigs.  Unfortunately, there’s not much of an opportunity for him with these Reds.  The 23-year-old surfaced briefly in Cincy last season, but he’ll likely have to wait in Triple-A for an opportunity to begin 2013.  With regular playing time, Rodriguez could offer positive contributions in AVG and OBP categories.  ETA:  2013

10.  J.J. Hoover, RHP:  Hoover appeared in 28 games out of the bullpen for the Reds last year, amassing some nice numbers:  2.08 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.1 K/9.  The 25-year-old will likely rejoin the ‘pen for the 2013 season, and if he continues to impress, there’s always the potential to earn save opportunities.  ETA:  2013

25 Responses

  1. ScEvens,

    Possible to get your tiered rankings of the following pitchers for a dynasty league where everyone is kept….

    Trevor Bauer
    Tyler Skaggs
    Brandon Beachy
    Jose Fernandez
    Zach Wheeler
    Taijuan Walker
    Jameson Taillon
    Aaron Sanchez
    Dan Hultzen
    Julio Teheran
    Archie Bradley

    Danke.

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      In order of my preference within each tier:

      [Fernandez, Walker, Wheeler, Taillon]

      [Bauer, Skaggs, Beachy, Bradley, Sanchez]

      [Teheran, Hultzen]

      • Fair to assume@Scott Evans:

        Fair to assume Bundy would head this list?….and where might you slot in guys like Jarrod Parker and Shelby Miller?

        Thanks a ton, greatly appreciate the information for my dynasty draft.

        • Scott Evans

          Scott Evans says:
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          Parker & Miller both in tier 2, both ahead of Bauer.

  2. mindicohn says:
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    had to auction this past week bc of everyone’s schedules…As such, I’m the lucky bastard to get hit first with the injury – Texeirira (sp)…Maybe that’s a good thing bc i think he’s bad.

    In any event, here’s who is out there at 1B

    Belt
    Morneau
    Frazier
    M.Olt
    Youk
    Cuddyer
    Robot Jones
    just to name a few…Any suggestions?

    I’d also have to drop one of L.Cain ($2), Uggla ($2), Simmelton ($1) or Maybin ($1)..those are their values for keepers..I’d rprobably drop Uggmo bc I have Cano…then again, with the PED ….

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      I like Frazier best from that group.

  3. * ALERT – Grey’s projections + 5×5 mixed league $/rankings have been updated to reflect Teixeira’s injury. Will get addressed in the other projections/$ grids in the next couple days. *

  4. 2 Giant rings says:
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    I love how you guys are johnny-on-the-spot with rank updates. Thanks.
    I was targeting Hamilton as a flyerin a deep league but now I think I’ll steer clear. Grey is pessimistic as well. I was just thinking if a SS or OF goes down he’d get the call but it may not happen even then.

  5. Jon says:
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    Hey Scott/Rudy/Grey,

    Can you choose 3-5 minor leaguers that you would definitely want to own from this list in a dynasty keeper league:

    Olt, Rendon, Singleton, Wong, Gyorko, Baez, Franklin, Russell, Bradley, Springer, Williams, Yelich, Jackson

    And could you choose 2 SP from this list?
    Barnes, Fernandez, Gausman, Skaggs, Martinez, Wacha

    Thanks!

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      Baez, Yelich, Russell, Singleton, Springer

      Fernandez, Gausman

  6. Curt says:
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    Asdruba Cabrera at 7th or Mike Minor at 11th.

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      Cabrera, but that’s close.

  7. Jim says:
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    In my 20-team keeper league, I’ve been offered Manny Machado and Josh Johnson for Ryan Zimmerman. My team likely won’t be competitive this year. Is this a trade you’d accept?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Oops, just realized my response was on Scott’s post… My bad, Scott… That’s my thoughts on the trade though…

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      I think you can hold out for more. If you can get a decent upgrade on Johnson, I’d pull the trigger.

  8. Robdouth says:
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    • Well, I don’t agree with everything in ESPN’s top 300 (Rutledge at 247?!?!) but I certainly don’t think they are lazy. You never know how they make the sausage that is their top 300. It could be one of them loves a guy but the others bring him down. Grey and I wouldn’t look forward to creating a consensus rankings (although we agree on more than we disagree in draft rooms).

      I think any similarities with Grey’s projections comes down to the post’s subject – ‘Sleepers and Busts’. Sleepers are almost always real young players or bounceback candidates. Grey loves young players like Rutledge and Segura. It’s only natural for there to be overlap.

      FWIW, the sleeper picks that are closest to mine are definitely James Quintong’s. I’m on board with Berkman, Murphy, Rutledge, and Beckett – drafted all of them in at least one league.

      • Robdouth says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: I fully understand where you are coming from on that, but even if it is a consensus top 300, when 5 of 9 say Rutledge is a sleeper, then they obviously rated him too low. Also, 4 of them had Sal Perez low, although I did find it hilarious that RIzzo was on the Busts list as well as Wilin Rosario appearing on both the sleepers and busts list.

  9. TheNewGuy says:
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    Looks like Scotts gone on holiday with Rudy and Grey filling in on here haha.

    When you do get back man, going back to our talk about FAAB, which way do you reccomend? Bidding on every player each week sounds kinda crazy (but could be fun), though is it a bit too much work/planning for working out each player rather than just clicking add when you want. I guess its most important for called up prospects, that part certainly would be fun!

    Whereas with it just for guys on waivers im not sure how much itd get used – I mean how much do guys actually get claimed during a year anyway? Ive never found waivers are that important, after all theres usually a reason why guys get dropped lol. And even prospects call ups wont be on waivers on ESPN, just whoever has the fastest trigger finger (rarely me).

    Just wondering anyway as im tempted to enter the funky world of FAAB this year in a H2H league.

    Loving seeing my prospect Stephenson 2nd in your list too!

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      Apologies, my man. I usually get alerted via email when folks leave comments, but that seems to have malfunctioned on this particular post. Re: FAAB, I prefer only bidding on guys on waivers… keeps things simple. And yeah, it’s huge when prospects get the call — I see guys spend $90+ (out of $100) when high-profile prospects get added to player pools. And in Yahoo, I know the commissioner settings allow you to customize the player universe, so you can leave guys like Myers & Taveras out of the available pool until they’re officially up — makes for bidding madness. I know you’d have fun with it, man.

  10. Rudy sent me your way, about a trade that was just offered to be in my Dynasty League…

    been offered…

    SP Jose Fernandez
    SS Javier Baez

    for

    SP Shelby Miller
    SS Francisco Lindor

    Question I guess would be is the upgrade from Lindor to Baez (how big a gap is there in your opinion, fantasy wise)…..and the ultimate upside of Fernandez vs Miller….worth giving up the seemingly less risk that comes with Miller?

    Any/All insight would be greatly appreciated….

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      The Baez/Lindor end really comes down to how much you value position scarcity. Lindor is gonna stick at short & offer outstanding production from a premium position, whereas Baez likely shifts to 3B (or OF). I see Baez peaking a little higher than Lindor in terms of power, but that sort of production is easier to come by at third or OF.

      Re: Fernandez/Miller, I love Fernandez. His upside is enormous — legit ace potential. Shelby doesn’t have that. Miller’s only value over Fernandez at this point is lesser risk, as you point out. He’s the lead candidate for a starting gig this year, and he projects like a really solid #2.

      What you have here is an extremely fair deal, but I probably hold Miller & Lindor in order to decrease your risk factor, and stay in front of the position scarcity game. That’s the safer move in my eyes, although the upside on the other end is probably a bit higher.

      Sorry I can’t be more definitive here — this proposal is mind-bogglingly close.

      • TheNewGuy says:
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        @Scott Evans:
        Dont mean to butt in but do you see Fernandez as having potential similar to the current great colombian pitcher King Felix? Sounds very exciting to keep watch of, the greatest potenital arm in the minors right now?

        He got grabbed midseason in my keeper league by a guy before he came on any prospect rankings, shows what gems there are out there if you can find them.

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