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Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2012 (5) | 2011 (23) | 2010 (28) | 2009 (26) | 2008 (20)

2012 Affiliate Records
MLB: [81-81] NL West
AAA: [81-63] Pacific Coast League – Reno
AA: [69-71] Southern League – Mobile
A+: [64-76] California League – Visalia
A: [67-73] Midwest League – South Bend
A(ss):  [36-40] Northwest League — Yakima (Hillsboro beginning 2013)

Graduated Prospects
Patrick Corbin (LHP); Bryan Shaw (RHP)

The Run Down
The Diamondbacks entered the off-season with one of the most impressive collections of 25-and-under talent in the game.  With the departures of Justin Upton and Trevor Bauer, however, that youthful core took a major hit in the high-impact department.  One of Arizona’s motives in those trades was adding low-risk depth, and in that regard, they did quite well — Didi Gregorious and Nick Ahmed are premium defenders up the middle, Zeke Spruill is a safe bet to max out his potential, and Brandon Drury is a 1B with upside.  Unfortunately for us, though, these changes make the D’Backs organization a tad less exciting for fantasy purposes.  But that doesn’t mean this system is void of fantasy intrigue.  There’s actually plenty of immediate-impact potential here with guys like Tyler Skaggs and Adam Eaton.  There’s long-term excitement, too, with prospects like Archie Bradley and Stryker Trahan.

Top Ten Prospects
1.  Tyler Skaggs, LHP:
  Ugly spring numbers have some folks concerned, but Skaggs has done too much good over the past few years to have 6 lousy IP in Spring Training drag down his projection.  His fastball isn’t overpowering, but it’s effective when located well, and a big 12-6 breaker will allow for plenty of whiffs.  Skaggs was my #4 prospect for 2013, and Grey has him as the 89th best SP for this year.  He also went over his Tyler Skaggs fantasy back in November, if you so desire.  ETA:  2013

2.  Archie Bradley, RHP:  A plus-plus fastball-curve combo makes Bradley extremely exciting for fantasy purposes.  At age 19, and in his first year of full-season baseball, Bradley posted a 10.1 K/9 at Low-A South Bend.  His overall ceiling is higher than Skaggs’s, but there’s plenty more risk here given his distance from the bigs.  ETA:  2015

3.  Matt Davidson, 3B:  Davidson’s power is legit, as evidenced by the .208 ISO he posted at Double-A last year.  The 21-year-old projects to hit 25+ homers annually, but an aggressive approach will likely keep the AVG down.  Still, he looks like an above-average 3B, and he’s not too far off.  Davidson will begin 2013 at Triple-A Reno.  ETA:  Late 2013

4.  Adam Eaton, OF:  Grey has him slotted at #62 in his outfield ranks, and just last week I called Eaton my #2 early-impact prospect while chatting with Nick in the latest podcast.  We like Eaton.  ETA:  2013

5.  Stryker Trahan, C:  Trahan brings perhaps the biggest upside of any hitter in this organization, but most sources don’t project him to stick at catcher, unfortunately.  An excellent athlete, Trahan brings plus speed and plus-plus raw power.  The 18-year-old could reach full-season ball this year, but if the D’Backs continue to develop him as a catcher, expect a slower timetable.  ETA:  2016

6.  David Holmberg, LHP:  Holmberg is a big lefty with a deep, refined repertoire.  The 21-year-old posted a 3.32 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 7.9 K/9 in 173 IP between High- and Double-A last year.  He could be useful to the D’Backs this season.  #3 starter upside here.  ETA:  2013

7.  Michael Perez, C:  Perez posted a .900 OPS in rookie ball last year, showing plus power potential in his first real taste of pro baseball.  The 20-year-old will step up to a full-season assignment in 2013.  Long way to go, but Perez brings big time fantasy upside if he can continue putting up impressive numbers from the catcher position.  ETA:  2016

8.  Chris Owings, SS:  Poor approach has held back Owings, who features impressive raw tools both in the field and at the plate.  He’ll return to Double-A where he hit just .263/.291/.377 last year.  The 21-year-old could develop into a high-impact guy if he can scale back the aggressiveness and find his comfort zone against upper level arms.  ETA:  2014

9.  Alfredo Marte, OF:  An improved approach helped Marte discover his power stroke in 2012 at Double-A Mobile.  The 23-year-old collected 48 XBH (20 HR) in 446 PA in what was truly a breakout year.  Marte turns 24 later this month, so patience is thin.  The D’Backs will push him to the bigs if there’s a need, and if last year’s success translates, he could be useful in the fantasy game.  ETA:  2013

10.  Zeke Spruill, RHP:  Before he was acquired in the Justin Upton deal, I ranked Spruill 10th in the Atlanta top ten.  Here’s what I said about him:  “Spruill was steady across 161 IP at Double-A Mississippi.  At 6-5, 190, the 23-year-old features a big, durable frame and enough stuff to cut it as a back-end innings eater.  His ceiling is rather low, but his likelihood of reaching that ceiling is very high.  Not much risk here.”  ETA:  2014

  1. Kcc26 says:
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    Hey! Love this series. This is my favorite place to waste time : ). Anyways, i posted yesterday looking for advice but I guess I wasn’t super clear so I cleaned it up a bit and am re-posting. Keepers due in a couple of hours so I would really love any input since you guys are the best writers/ readers out there!

    ! 12 team, we keep 5, at the avg of where they were drafted last season and their current yahoo ADP. Everyone not kept goes back Into the redraft pool. Many seem to be keeping their best players, and it seems like the top players available in the draft will be: wright , Justin upton, reyes (that range) Pedroia, that range. I pick 12th. I’ll probably be looking at an offensive group of mayyybe holliday (depending on who else is kept), bj upton, brandon phillips, zobrist, goldschmidt, or the group of pitchers including lee and hamels. Given that information, which of these 5 would you keep?

    kemp (2)
    tulowitzki (2) If I keep both, the other gets pushed to the last pick of the 3rd round
    mccutchen (4)
    goldschmidt (7)
    encarnacion (9)
    wainwright (11)
    medlen (16)

    If I don’t keep kemp/tulowitzki pairing I miss out on the high impact bats. But then again, I can keep goldy in 7 and wainwright in 11 but if I throw them back they’ll both likely be 2nd round picks! I also hate the idea of keeping guys coming off of major injury over a young pitcher who was ndafted last year and had a 0.94 era in the 2nd half last year. Isn’t that what keepers are all about?! Help!?

    Thanks so much!

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      Keep kemp, tulo, cutch, goldschmidt, waino

  2. TheNewGuy says:
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    Turned up an hour late to my draft due to the clocks changing in the US last sunday! Typical, who’d have funked it….being in England this obviously screwed me up as there was a 4 hour time difference not 5 as there usually is.

    Anyway as its a keeper I was considering throwing in the towel already and rebuilding, but I might be having 2nd thoughts as noone appears to be set to blow the competition away. Know its nothing to do with prospects but always value your advice man, is this team competitive for a 10 teamer in your eyes? Got some autodrafted guys I didnt want, and had missed out on all the studs already, so I had to make the best of what was left and buy the mid value guys I liked (OBP league):

    C- Yadi
    1B- E5
    2B- Altuve
    3B- Freese (yikes)
    SS- Rollins
    CI- Hos
    MI- Andrus
    OF- Dread Pirate
    OF- Beltran
    OF- Rios
    OF- Gomez
    OF- Werth
    UT- C Santana (autodrafted, sucks I know…)

    P- Medlen
    P- Motte
    P- Paps
    P- Samardja
    P- H Bailey
    P- Wilhelmson
    P- Fister
    P- Cishek
    P- Jannsen (the worser one)

    BE- Tex
    BE- Segura
    BE- B Anderson
    BE- Mous
    BE- Kennedy
    BE- Peavy

    Horrible feeling turning up late to a money league isn’t it, we’ve all done it. Makes you feel like crap at the time seeing all the guys missed but I tried to stay cool at make the best of whats left. Think im light on especially stud power but apart from that is this team still possible to get into contention this year?

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      Dude! What awful circumstances. I feel your pain, but I don’t think your squad is a lost cause. My first thought is you’ve got an awful lot of closers, and you’re weak areas are OF/3B/Util & SP. Try offering high-end closers (motte/paps) for help in the weak areas. I wouldn’t even be opposed to trading both guys (one for OF/3B/UT, one for SP)… You can find saves in-season and closer turnover is so regular that I don’t like investing much in them in a keeper. If you can pull off a deal or two, I think your club looks much better.

      • TheNewGuy says:
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        @Scott Evans:
        Thanks man, yeah I don’t know why I ended up with so many closers. My brain was a bit fried by what had happened and I saw guys I liked like Wilhelmsen so I went for them (didnt want paps though, autodraft).

        Glad you don’t think its a lost cause though, I literally logged into the draft an hour gone and had like just FOUR players autodrafted for me (Kennedy, Santana, Paps and Andrus), and I didnt like any of them much.

        Shows thats the scary thing about auctions, turn up late and you’re likely screwed whereas in a snake, autopicks can still keep you competitive.

        So you think my pitching staff in terms of starters is ok too? Crazy thing is I’ve not got an ace or even a no2, yet I’ve got tonnes of 3′s (you could argue all are 3′s!) so feel like this staff might actually be ok.

        Definately need to work on getting a big bat in though. I’ve found one possible seller of Hamilton, so thats promising.

        • Scott Evans

          Scott Evans says:
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          Bat is first priority, but adding another #2 type starter would help too. I’d keep a close eye one our stream-o-nator if you can’t add a pitcher via trade…

          • TheNewGuy says:
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            @Scott Evans:
            Found some interest from someone who has Hamilton. Trading Andrus and Papelbon for Hamilton would work right? I know I might have to resuffle positions and work another trade possible (OF for a MI), but it would get me a big bat which is my main aim.

            • Scott Evans

              Scott Evans says:
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              Yeah, that’d help for sure. I’m not the biggest Hamilton supporter, but sounds like a fair swap & solves priority #1.

              • TheNewGuy says:
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                @Scott Evans:
                He’s now wanting Motte back too, thats crazy right? Im not being held to ransom over Hamilton, especially with the health, K rate, new park concerns over him this year.
                Would you chuck in a crappy closer (wilhemson, or Jannssen) instead of Motte, or should I hold firm with my offer?

                • Scott Evans

                  Scott Evans says:
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                  Seemed fair beforehand. I would hold tight…

                  • TheNewGuy says:
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                    @Scott Evans:
                    It did seem fair yeah, but hes one of those guys whos tends to change his mind once hes thought about it. Would adding Wilhelmsen instead be passable? This teams the only bite ive had so far, so could really use Hamilton.

                    • Scott Evans

                      Scott Evans says:
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                      Wouldn’t hurt you too bad if you tossed in Wilhelmsen… I’m never opposed to getting value for closers via trade. See if he bites.

  3. DavidAlan51 says:
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    Where is “Didi” Gregorius on your list?

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      He’s in the next 5… too defensively oriented right now. Not enough immediate fantasy appeal. Without the fantasy spin, though, he’s for sure a top ten guy in this system. He’s the type who’ll carve out a regular role thanks to his defensive effort, and with those regular PAs, he’ll improve toward fantasy relevance later in his career.

  4. Craig says:
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    Scott,

    What’s your twitter handle? There doesn’t seem to be an easy way to find it on the Razzball site.

    Thanks!

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      @R_ScottE

  5. anoraxx says:
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    Scott, when will you be posting top 20 or so prospects for 2015 and beyond?

    • Scott Evans

      Scott Evans says:
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      That post is in progress, but I was thinking of holding off on it & saving it for an in-season feature. I got a little backed up with the team previews & now I’m thinking it’s a little too late for that post to serve as a useful draft tool. Plus, many dynasty formats have their reserve drafts during the season anyway… apologies if yours is upcoming. Rest assured, it’s on the way, though.

      Here’s a sneak peek at the top ten: Jose Fernandez, Miguel Sano, Javier Baez, Byron Buxton, Anthony Rendon, Francisco Lindor, Kevin Gausman, Addison Russell, Archie Bradley, Jorge Soler.

      That’s how I have them ranked for now, but could be minor tweaking ahead…keep in mind that the list won’t include anyone from my 2013 top 50.

      • anoraxx says:
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        @Scott Evans:

        Thanks, it is exactly like you said. My league is introducing prospect draft for the first time next week so I was just wondering if the ranking is going to be before it. But the sneak peek works just fine, thanks.

      • TheNewGuy says:
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        @Scott Evans: No Correa? You told me to draft him over Soler, Russell and Buxton man ;)

        • Scott Evans

          Scott Evans says:
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          Haha, new reports on both Correa & Almora have me confused as to each’s ceiling — could be Carlos Gonzales, could be Carlos Gomez… I’m allowed to change my mind, aren’t i ??!!

          • TheNewGuy says:
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            @Scott Evans: ha you can but it doesnt make us feel any better for us choosing him! I was hoping he could be the next Tulo, is the next Kinsler or even Uggla (hope not) more appropriate?

            • Scott Evans

              Scott Evans says:
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              certainly not Uggla. Basically, I’m concerned that he’s more of an all around phenom than a phenom at the plate. Folks rave about his arm & quickness & instincts in the field, but there’s a lot to be proved as far as his hit tool goes. Definitely not a bad guy to have, though… he’s not outside that top 10 by much…

  6. TheNewGuy says:
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    In case you miss it above:

    He’s now wanting Motte back too, thats crazy right? Im not being held to ransom over Hamilton, especially with the health, K rate, new park concerns over him this year.
    Would you chuck in a crappy closer (wilhemson, or Jannssen) instead of Motte, or should I hold firm with my offer?

    • TheNewGuy says:
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      @TheNewGuy:
      Cant respond anymore above re Hamilton (gotten too small!), but I think I could do Wilhelmsen. Only other offer he made was C Gomez instead. Now I like him for this year, but hes not as good in an OBP league (was forced to draft him by that stage. Would you rather trade mini Cargo or keep him for depth?

      • Scott Evans

        Scott Evans says:
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        I like the idea of holding Gomez over Wilhemsen

        • TheNewGuy says:
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          @Scott Evans: wow.

          Cant say the guy isnt created, hes extended the offer to include minor leaguers too. Wont post it all now but out of a choice of Profar, Myers, Sano and Boegarts (yup hes loaded), who would you go with? Hes offered Profar but I dunno I just feel theres more upside with the other guys, and Myers is just as close (OBP league though, could help Profar).

          • Scott Evans

            Scott Evans says:
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            Wow that’s some high-end talent he’s throwing out there… If you don’t already have a long term SS, I can’t imagine not going with Profar if you have the choice. But if you’re looking for the guy that can do the most damage regardless of position scarcity, it’s either Sano or Bogaerts for me, and I lean slightly toward Sano — 40+ HR potential, great on-base skills, lot’s of RBI from middle of the order…

            • TheNewGuy says:
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              @Scott Evans:

              Yeah big wow. Think my negotiating has worked, he clearly needs some closers :)

              The offer initially was:
              Wilhelmsen, Andrus, Motte FOR Hamilton

              And I got him to add prospects:
              Correa and Castellanos FOR Profar and A Bradley

              I like the prospect additions, especially after you said you are now lower on Correa ;) . Bradley for Castey is awash to me, but I think Profar is definately a good (and safer) upgrade. He said hed throw me back Skaggs (he promoted him and its backfired) and Alexi if I want them too. Do I get the Razzball approval to do the deal?

              • Scott Evans

                Scott Evans says:
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                I can sign off on this. APPROVED.

                • TheNewGuy says:
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                  @Scott Evans:
                  Ok cool just check below first :)

              • TheNewGuy says:
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                @TheNewGuy:
                I guess the thing is what do you see Profars ceiling as, 20/20? Whereas is a guy like Myers 30/100. Question is which is more valuable long term in a contract league (im wanting to go with one of them two as theyre closer to the show).

                • Scott Evans

                  Scott Evans says:
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                  20/20 versus 30/100 is awfully close in terms of value weighed against scarcity, but Profar wins for me because I think he’s much more likely to reach a 20/20 level than Myers is to reach 30/100

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