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We have made the following updates to the pages in our 2013 fantasy baseball draft kit:

  • Updated the Steamer projections reflecting our latest playing time projections and factoring in recent injuries
  • Updated all the $ values based on the latest Steamer projections and CAIRO v0.4.
  • Corrected the AL-only and NL-only values for relievers (they had been slightly inflated due to under-counting projected saves per league).
  • Moved to only Steamer projections for the Runs and RBIs behind the fantasy baseball auction values (I worked with Steamer in the offseason to improve Runs/RBI projections – notably taking projected batting order into the equation)
  • Updated Grey’s fantasy baseball rankings and projections to reflect the Matt Garza and Phil Hughes injuries
  • Added in some rookies such as Hunter Morris, Chris McGuiness, and Gerrit Cole
  • Update 3/4 – Adjusted $ values for a few more injuries (e.g., Chris Perez), updated some playing times, and adjusted the second $ value on Yahoo leagues to 170/90 (from 165/95).

Happy drafting!

From Around The Web

  1. Dave says:
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    Great work Rudy. Is it just me or are the Yahoo 12 and 15 team links not list any players?

    • It wasn’t you. Found the glitch and fixed it. Thanks for alerting me!

  2. mikey boy324 says:
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    Rudy who is one hitter and pitcher that you feel like has the best chance to break out?

    • @mikey boy324: I wish I knew who started taking steroids as that would help answer your question independent of how one reads the phrase ‘break out’.

    • @SG: Thanks! Did a search for CAIRO v0.4 and guess I didn’t read the date. Had to double-check that I had downloaded the right version for the $ values (I did).

  3. Rags says:
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    You guys going to do a write up of the CBS auction draft you did? Had some questions about some of your bids (whoever it was that did the bidding) although I can’t think of them off the top of my head right now.

    • Grey has a write-up of the CBS NL draft that should go live in the next week. The CBS AL-only draft recap is still TBD. Grey did the bidding for both of the drafts (they were during the day – I was working)…

      • Rags says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Cool. Cool. Cool.

  4. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    Hey Rudy – I was just looking over the Steamer projections and I was surprised at the disparity between the power and speed numbers on offense. The projections were quite bullish for power, projecting HR totals that have never been achieved in the majors for certain players (e.g. Stanton – 44, Rizzo – 32, Goldschmidt – 28) while many SB totals seemed to be about 2/3 of what you might expect for players with proven track records (e.g. McCutchen – 14, J. Upton – 12, Braun – 19, Andrus – 18!, Reyes – 24, etc.).

    Beyond the obvious explanation that Hillary Clinton projected the HRs and Pat Buchanan the SBs, is there some other reason that Steamer would be so bullish towards power projections and bearish towards speed?

    • I’ll reach out to J. Cross to get his POV on this. Good observation!

    • @Big Magoo:

      Magoo, I think there are a few things going on here. Perhaps the most important is different aging curves. We have SB attempts peaking at age 23/24 and then decreasing fairly rapidly whereas HRs peak at 27. In the case of Stanton, we actually have his HR rate falling off a little from last year, he’s just expected to get more PA.

      I also think there are some things we could be doing better when it comes to projecting SB attempt rates and this is an area where the average of Fangraphs Fans beat all of the computers last year so maybe a human element helps or maybe our algorithm just needs to be smarter. We have different regression means (“priors”) for different players’ HR rates but we don’t have scouting speed grades in the system so everyone is regressed to the same SB attempt rate. I’d like to change that at some point. Rudy and I have also talked about adjusting for manager tendencies in the future. SBA rates also aren’t normally distributed and maybe different amounts of regression should be applied to players at different levels or we should be projecting some transformation of SB attempt rate and then un-transforming.

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @J. Cross: Thanks for the response. I understand what you’re saying about power and speed peaks and valleys in terms of age progression, and that there are a lot of factors involved (which you’ve mentioned) in terms of player projections. However, I don’t believe that improvement or decline (while not even factoring in manager tendencies, park factors, etc.) is always linear, particularly concerning .

        Look at Elvis Andrus and Aramis Ramirez from last year. Andrus was a 23-year-old player entering his fourth season in the majors, and had stolen 33, 32, and 37 bases in each of his first three season, with his SB attempts increasing each year from 39 to 47 to 49. Being that SB attempts peak at age 23/24, you’d think he’d be a lock for 35-40 steals in 50+ attempts, right? He ended the ’12 season with 21 SBs in 30 attempts.

        On the other hand, Aramis Ramirez was a soon-to-be 34-year-old player entering his fifteenth season in the majors, and was eleven years removed from the only season in which he had more than two SBs and four total SB attempts, for a total of 16 steals in 31 attempts over a fourteen year career. While I don’t know what his official “speed score” was, it would probably rate somewhere between tortoise and snail on the scale. Of course, he ended the ’12 season with 9 SBs in 11 attempts.

        I’m citing these examples just to illustrate the facts that speed and youth don’t always equate to large steal totals (e.g. Dexter Fowler, ’12 Austin Jackson) and age and a decline in physical skills don’t always equate to a decrease in SB attempts or even success rate (Juan Pierre, Rajai Davis, Coco Crisp).

        I appreciate the explanation though. I was thoroughly confused as to why so many players in their mid-late twenties are projected for their lowest SB total of their careers.

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @Big Magoo: The end of the first paragraph should read “particularly concerning a player’s stolen base attempt and success rate.”

  5. Alex says:
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    Rudy – how can I go about wrapping my head around steamer projections and cairo? Like wtf? Is there a synopsis somewhere or something?

  6. Project Merkin says:
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    Rudy, Grey, et al, great work guys. Now I have a serious question for ya’ll.

    (Anyone else can chime in with their thoughts/experiences as well.)

    So clearly the Razzball top 400 is far different from ESPN/Yahoo. Do you adjust your pre-rankings to show the Razzball rankings, or leave them? Several of the guys in my league will probably just go by the ESPN rankings, so by leaving them, I know that certain guys will be available a few rounds later, so I won’t have to reach.. I guess everyone is different, just seeing what you guys did.

    • I leave in the default rankings to get a gauge for how everyone else might be drafting. I cut/paste my $ rankings into a google doc and then just add a column where i put ‘x’ if they are drafted. It’s like a poor man’s war room.

  7. B.o.B says:
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    Rudy – to go back to your 2012 projections review, just so I have this right, for both hitting and pitching, you would suggest averaging CAIRO and Steamers for this year?

    • @B.o.B: Yes, I’d average their rates (e.g., HR/PA) and then multiply that rate by the PAs I’ve provided in the $ values + Steamer Projections. (for pitchers, do the same per IP except for Saves/Holds where I’d take my Save projections).

      That’s how I generated the projections behind the $ values.

      • B.o.B says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Awesome thanks Rudimeister!

    • @Tyler: The first one sounds best but I’m kind of a self-learner. Good question to ask SG or Jared.

      • Tyler says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Thanks much – really appreciate the work you do here.

  8. Justin says:
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    Rudy,

    Love the work and the Point Shares system. I’m in a 16 team Yahoo 6×6 league (OPS and walks). I can use the yahoo 15 team setting on the Point Shares as an easy proxy and adjust myself, but whenever I try to select the 6X6 OPS setting too it reverts back to ESPN roster settings.

    Does the Point Shares set up allow for using a Yahoo roster with a 6×6 set up?

    Thanks for all the great work.

    • @Justin: I’ve only calculated 6×6 OPS for ESPN format and for 12 teams only. You can compare the 12-team 6×6 OPS and 12-team 5×5 for ESPN format to identify players whose value increases/decreases with the addition of OPS.

  9. Justin says:
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    Great stuff as always rudy! Got a quick question for you.

    12 team h2h 6×6 ops and quality starts are the extra cats. We keep 7, and im not 100 percent sure, need an outside opinion.

    Cano(yes)
    Bautista (yes)
    Granderson (maybe)
    Andrus(maybe)
    Rizzo(maybe)
    Victorino(maybe)
    salvador Perez(highy considering)
    Beltran(ehhhhh not feeling it)
    Konerko(ehh not feeling it)

    Wainwright(yes)
    Marco Estrada(highly considering)
    Hellickson(maybe)
    Mariano Rivera(maybe)

    Thank you in advance.

    • Agree on Cano, Bautista, and Wainwright. I’d definitely keep Rizzo (he’s coming out fantastic in the projections). I’d keep Andrus. The other two are a crapshoot. Starters will be at more of a premium – I’d probably keep Hellickson more just because he’s a surer bet. Given the Granderson injury, I’d gamble on Konerko or Beltran given they’ll be bigger OPS contributors than Victorino.

  10. Andy says:
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    In an auction league, I am keeping Trout ($4) Mccutch ($29) and Braun ($32). Should I keep Ike Davis ($5), Justin Upton ($31), Zobrist ($13) or Wainwright ($12). Standard 23 players, $260. Thanks

    • @Andy: Here are the values I have for them in 12-team ESPN roster (23 players). This is with equal pitching/hitting weights. Ike at $13, J-Up at $26, Zobrist at $16, Wainwright at $13. So Ike Davis definitely provides the best keeper value.

  11. Boomer19 says:
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    Hi Rudy,
    Has the war room been updated with the new projections? I’d love to use it in an upcoming draft. That combined with point shares and I will be set for the day!

    Thanks

    • I don’t think it has – will see if we can get that updated this week.

  12. Eddy says:
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    Hey Rudy,

    As always, appreciate all the hard work! I was waiting for the annual auction draft strategy post to roll around, but figured I’d just ask here.

    Similar to the question above about pre-draft rankings and whether to change them or not, for auction leagues, players in Yahoo are inflated, at least near the top, about 20% compared to Razzball auction values.

    I’ve only done one auction mock, but it felt like for every top tier, upper middle tier guy I drafted, he went anywehre from $2-$5 above Razzball auction prices. That’s not to speak of the $60 Trout or $58 Braun and all that.

    So how do you balance Razzball projections when a room is clearly gung-ho with prices?

    • Eddy says:
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      @Eddy:

      Also, in an 8-team auction, how would you prefer to split up your budget? I’m guessing skewing more toward the hitting side? By how much?

    • We just went through that in a yahoo-hosted draft. We refused to spend much more than a dollar over our estimates and, soon enough, people were broke and we got crazy bargains. Have a real deep team. Have faith and ride out their irrational exuberance!

      • Eddy says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        I gotcha. A few more questions.

        In an 8-team auction, how heavy would you skew to hitting? And how can I figure out Razzball prices for that?

        I see that you don’t have 180/80 as a split in the point shares. Is this because you think that limits your pitching too much?

        • Eddy says:
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          @Eddy: And just to clarify, the Yahoo! rankings don’t have 180/80. ESPN does.

          Also, anyway to filter through Yahoo rankings with OBP instead of AVG?

          • I’ve only done OBP with ESPN – aiming to add OBP for Yahoo potentially for in-season player rating.

            Best adjustment factor for that is to look at the Difference column in the 5×5 OBP sheet for ESPN. That’ll give you an idea how many $ to add/subtract for the AVG/OBP switch.

        • Hey Eddy –
          The reason why Yahoo! is at 151/109 and 165/95 is that their ratio of Hitters/Pitchers is different than the standard ratio seen in most formats (including ESPN). Whereas a standard/ESPN 1-catcher league has 59% of starting players as hitters (13/22), it is 56% for Yahoo (10/18). So a proportional $ split in ESPN is 154/106 and in Yahoo is 144/116. My tests from last year confirmed 5% more reliability in hitter projections vs. pitcher projections so for pre-season I +/-2.5% to the proportional split I adjusted the standard to 160/100 for ESPN and 151/109 for Yahoo (I noticed it says 165/95 for some of the ESPN splits – will have to correct that).

          My goal was to make a more hitter-skewed $ ratio for Yahoo leagues that was equivalent to 180/80 in ESPN but reflects this smaller ratio. I just realized, though, that I multiplied up 151 by 180/165 instead of 180/160. It should be at 170/90 vs. 165/95. I’m correcting that now and re-posting the $ splits.

          I think it makes sense to stay somewhere within the proportional hitter/pitcher split to the hitter-friendly split (180/80) for an auction depending on your preferences/drafting strengths. The one thing that’s a must, however, is pick a ratio and stick to it. If you, say, adhere to hitter-friendly for hitters and proportional for pitchers, you’re effectively using a budget > $260 (e.g., 170/109 for Yahoo! would be $279).

          There’s no easy way to convert 10 team down to 8. Here’s a way. The biggest change from 10 to 8 is that you’re reducing the starting drafted hitter universes and pitcher universe from 100 hitters / 80 pitchers to 80 hitters / 60 pitchers. Find the sum of the 81-100 hitters $. Multiply up the $ values for the top 80 hitters by a percentage (e.g., multiply by 1.05). Add up the difference between the 10 team and the 8 team. Keep fudging that multiplication factor until the diff b/w the 10 team and 8 team equals that $ amount for the 81-100 hitters. Do the same for pitchers.

          This method will make sure to disproportionally boost up the top hitters/pitchers from the bottom hitters/pitchers which is the goal.

          • Eddy says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: Much, much appreciated. I’ll get on that right now. Thank you.

  13. aethomp1 says:
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    I might have missed the answer, but I have a question about the Excel war room.
    My league is 9×9 with a bunch or additional stats. I was just wondering if there is a way to add all the additional stats into the spreadsheet?
    Thanks in advanced

    • @aethomp1: Not at this time – sorry. Will definitely take this into consideration for future enhancements

  14. Rags says:
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    Did my first ever daily mixed-league auction. Accidentally overbid on Kemp, which messed up my pitching. I know it’s weak, but should I stick with it and monitor the waiver wire or be looking for a trade? 5X5 10 team.

    C: Lucroy
    1B: Pujols
    2B: Zobrist
    3B/CI: Wright, Frazier
    SS/MI: Desmond, Rutledge
    OF/U: Kemp, Cargo, JUpton, Holliday, Reddick, Marte

    SP: Wainwright, Sabathia, CJ Wilson, Beckett, McCarthy, E-Jax, Minor
    RP: Janssen and Perez

    Bench: Tehran, Everth Cabrera, Will Middlebrooks

    I’m not sure exactly what to do with my bench (my other league doesn’t have one). Should I pick up a backup catcher for Lucroy’s off-days? (Pierzynski, Doumit, Flowers, D’Arndaud and Ruiz are available.) Should I drop bench guys for more starters or another closer? Broxton somehow slipped through and League and Francisco are both sitting on the wire. Any advice is welcome. Thanks!

    • tenaciousdeucer says:
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      @Rags:

      Assuming this is an ESPN league with no IP limit, you will want several more relievers. Unless you are irrationally attached to some of those guys I would use lose the bench guys for whatever Saves-agnof there is on FA.

      • @tenaciousdeucer: Agree with td. You need saves. I’d stock the bench with MRs for ratios/Ks and cycle them in when starters are off or have bad matchups. Broxton and League are must owned.

  15. ATL says:
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    If I want to convert the 2-catcher AL only 5×5 prices to 4×4, is it as easy as deleting the Pt Shares for runs and strikeouts and recalculating (Pt Shares/Total Pt Shares) * Total Dollars?

    • not quite that easy. Converting PS to $ isn’t quite that easy since they are based on the average player vs the replacement player. after you find the PS for 4 by 4, find the PS of the guy ranked at the spot equalling the number of rostered players in your league (eg, 12 teams * 23 players = 276). Should be negative 3 or something like that. Take whatever you need to get that to zero and add that to every player. Then add that total and divide by all the dollars.

  16. Tim says:
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    Thanks for all the work on this stuff. I’m just wondering how come the player list shows the “last update” as 2/6?

    • Which player list? Probably just a typo since I updated everything.

  17. Dave says:
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    I noticed Steamer doesn’t even have Hyun-Jin Ryu listed, while Grey has him ranked 110 now. Seems like someone who should be ranked somewhere in there. Anyone know why Steamer hasn’t included him?

    • Because he has only pitched in the Japanese leagues. Those guys are harder to project. Fujikawa and Nagasaki are both missing too for now. TBD if they get added before the start of season.

  18. 2 Cups 1 Braun says:
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    Hey Rudy,
    Are you going to update the “Updated” date?

    • it has been updated for all except Grey’s rankings. While my rankings/$ values change completely when i get new projections or update playing time, Grey’s stays mostly the same. The only changes have been Garza, Hughes, and Granderson (I think – that might’ve been 2/11). Will update that date next time I make an adjustment.

  19. Bill S. Preston, Esq. says:
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    I just wanted to point out that Bruce Rondon is listed as a DH, rather than a RP, at least on the 12-team Yahoo chart.

    Also, on one of your older posts someone mentioned having a lot of problems with the new site. I am having a lot of problems loading the site with internet explorer on Windows 7, particularly these charts. It will load, but if I click to change the column to set the order by, the whole chart disappears. I don’t have the same problems with my Android phone browser.

    • @Bill S. Preston, Esq.: Thanks Bill for the feedback. Corrected the Rondon position issue (was only in Yahoo 12-team – caused by an accidental hard-coding in that sheet).

      I tend to use Chrome (despite it SUCKING with Flash) but used IE 8 to access the data grid. For whatever reason, the grid doesn’t play as nicely in IE vs. Firefox/Chrome/Safari. Data that fits in the other browsers doesn’t in IE and causes more text-wrapping. I also got an error message about a script issue. Not sure what the underlying issue is (the table, an ad, etc.) but – for now at least – I’d suggest viewing Razzball through a non-IE browser.

      Thx and apologize for any inconvenience,
      Rudy

  20. Club Sauce says:
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    I just can’t make a decision on my last keeper… I am keeping Bruce in the 10th and Verlander in the 14th, but I can’t decide between these last three: Jennings (21st), Rizzo (21st), and Matt Moore (21st).

    One caveat is that we can keep our guys for their whole careers with no inflation.

    • @Club Sauce: That’s a tough choice between Jennings and Rizzo. I’d much rather bet on hitters vs. an SP so Moore is out of the running for me (that said, love Verlander in 14th round). I would lean towards Jennings and here’s why – while there is a lot of cheap speed available in drafts, they usually come at a huge cost in power (see Revere, Ben) and Runs if they don’t hit leadoff (see Segura, Jean). If you can find a 30+ SB guy who can delivery solid HR potential and plus Run potential, it helps you avoid those types of players. Really like Rizzo but I feel like he’ll be more replaceable.

  21. Matt says:
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    Why are the Streamer projections on Razzball.com different than the Streamer projections on FanGraphs.com?

    For example, Mike Trout projections are as follows:
    RazzBall Streamer: 27 homers, 114 Runs, 87 RBI, 41 SB, Triple Slash: 298/371/506
    FanGraphs Streamer: 26 homers, 114 Runs, 83 RBI, 42 SB, Triple Slash: 297/373/503

    Negligible, but noticeable.

    • different playing time estimates. We have our own. FG uses the fan estimates.

      • Matt says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        Gotcha.

        Also it appears as if the “Last Updated” column has not been updated in the Streamer Projections, though they clearly have been updated since February 6th.

        Thanks!!!

        • Yeah, will correct the ladt updated field. thanks!

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