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Point Shares are up for the following mixed-league formats: 5×5 for 10/12/14/15/16 team in both ESPN and Yahoo! roster formats.

For those of you unfamiliar with Point Shares, they represent the estimated difference in an average team’s points if they were to substitute a given player for the average player at his position. For more information, see here.

Here are some additions vs. last year:

  • Included three $ estimates to broadly reflect drafting styles from even weighting to hitters and pitchers to a slight skew towards hitters to a heavy skew towards hitters.  For instance, the ESPN roster versions have $156/$104, $165/$95, and $180/$80 dollar splits.  The rankings are based on even weighting of hitters and pitchers but you can cut/paste the rankings into an Excel spreadsheet or Google doc to sort by one of the other two figures (to cut/paste, right click within the Point Shares spreadsheet, choose ‘Select All’, copy, then paste.
  • Color-coded the category point shares so it’s easier to tell who are great/bad in each category.
  • Added the ADP from ESPN/Yahoo then showed the difference vs. the Point Share ranking.  Color-coded the difference so you can see which players are 5 or more picks different in ADP vs. Point Share ranking.
  • Added Steamer as a 2nd projection source (here’s one of the reasons why) and Rotochamp as a second playing time source.

Many thanks to:

  • Dan Szymborski (the man behind ZiPs projections) and Jared Cross (the man behind Steamer projections) for all the work that goes into providing free, high quality projections.
  • The folks at Fantistics and Rotochamp for contributing playing time estimates.
  • Everyone who responded to our recent polls and shared their fantasy baseball league info.

Things I’m still mulling over:

  • How to provide guidance for popular categories like OBP, OPS, and Quality Starts

Potential answers to questions asked in the comments:

  • “Yes, these apply for both Roto and H2H but make sure to load up your bench with SPs for matchups.”
  • “Yes, I’ll try to update the Point Shares again before the beginning of the season.”
  • “Yes, balance these rankings against your gut vs. treat them like gospel.  I created these Point Shares and spent countless hours cobbling them together and even I balance this against my gut.  Jeff Francouer was at the top of the available OFs in an early draft and I still couldn’t pull the trigger on Frenchy.”
  • “Yes, you could win a league using any of the three hitter/pitcher splits.  For mixed leagues, I prefer using the unweighted version (hitters + pitchers valued equally) or a slight hitter skew.  I’ll have a post up soon showing why that’s my preference.”
  • “Yes, I know the Point Shares spreadsheet looks wonkier in Firefox (random gridlines missing).  Not sure why.  Looks better in IE and Chrome.”
  • “Well, it matters your criteria.  If you go by sheer size and impressiveness, you have to choose my afro.  But if you go strictly by softness or ease of combing, Grey’s moustache is your choice.
  1. giantjj says:
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    -Hi Rudy, do you have any deep league backup round players you will be targeting? i’m looking for a player or 3 I can get between the 400-550 player pool range. thanks man.

    • Skeptic says:
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      @giantjj, Phillip A Coyne and Itdoes N Matteer are the guys I’d target in the top 500. Oh and there’s always Francisco liriano if you need pitching.

    • @giantjj, Wow, that is deep. Here are a few that may slip down to that level: Danny Hultzen SP, Seattle. Trayvon Robinson, OF, Seattle. Drew Pomeranz, SP, COL, Trevor Bauer, SP, ARI, Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL, Josh Reddick, OF, OAK, David Murphy, OF, TEX, Leonys Martin, OF, TEX, Matt Harrison, SP, TEX, Alex Presley, OF, PIT, Garrett Richards, SP, LAA, David DeJesus, OF, CHC, FraGu, OF, SEA, Brad Peacock, SP, OAK, Tom Milone, SP, OAK, Tyson Ross, SP, OAK, David Carpenter, RP, HOU

  2. Steve says:
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    Wow. This is great, Rudy. Not sure how you managed to do all this and still be a new Dad, but well done ;-)

    From a quick look at the 12-team rankings, Wright, Reyes and Prince are three off the bigger names whose Point Shares rankings suffer in comparison to their ADPs.

    Any observations as to why this is so and is your gut telling you about these guys?

    Thanks again for all the hard work.

    • @Steve, Thanks and you’re welcome! Wright has had 2 bad years out of his last 3 and has seen his SB go down into the low teens. I just don’t think the average drafter has adjsusted accordingly. Reyes shouldn’t be picked in the first 3 rounds unless you’re convinced that 1) he’ll get close to 600 AB (i have him at 554) and 2) he’ll steal 50+ SB (I have him at 34). Very doubtful he hits .330 again. I have good projections on Prince and wouldn’t be afraid to draft him sooner than his PS. I think PS are more conservative on 1B in shallow leagues b/c of relative position depth and it’s so strong at the top.

      • MattTruss223 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, Forgive my ignorance, Rudy, this is my first year diving into the point share buisness and it seems like a nice tool. But, if you don’t consider Hanley and Miggy getting 3B ability, Wright is the third ranked 3B according to point shares (0.91). There are only 5 3B that have positive PS (Beltre is just barely negative). Doesn’t that justify drafting him earlier? It’s a full point difference between he and Beltre. That needs to be considered when drafting, right? Or is that accounted for somewhere along the lines?

        Also, projections were kind to Daniel Bard huh? Wow, I’ll believe that one when I see it.

        • @MattTruss223, the projections take everything into account right now for 3B except for Miggy. Hanley more valuable at SS so he’s not in play. I was torn on whether giving Miggy 3B just b/c he should get the eligibility but it doesn’t really change his value much. 3B might not be top-heavy after Bautista and Longoria but it’s got a very deep 2nd tier in Wright/Lawrie/Reynolds/Sandoval/Beltre/A-Rod/Zimmerman/Young/A-Ram/Youk. So there’s no position scarcity at 3B.

          Here’s the subjective part with Wright: What will his power be w/ the new Metco configuration (moving fences in)? I’ve got him at 83/21/82/19/.271. I can see some upside in HR but that’s a bad lineup so not bullish on R/RBI (remembering that my R/RBI projections tend to be on the lower side to start). I’d much rather wait a few rounds for another 3B than overpay for Wright.

          • MattTruss223 says:
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            @Rudy Gamble, Fair enough, thanks for your thoughts.

      • Steve says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, Thanks Rudy – some interesting thoughts there. I know you don’t promote Point Shares as a draft sheet, but in a H2H league draft (12 teams, LF/CF/RF, no CI or MI, 1 x Util) if you’re concentrating just on hitters for the first 4-5 rounds – it kind of is, isn’t it?

        • Steve says:
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          @Steve, Sorry – meant to say that if you’re going by the theory of best available for those 4-5 rounds.

  3. chata says:
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    @ Rudy :

    do you put a lot of stock in espn’s adp ?

    i’ve played in about a dozen mocks there , in the last couple of weeks .
    each of them a 5×5 roto , vanilla .
    50% had at least 2 or 3 no-shows , and in the other 50 % at least
    2 or 3 guys would leave the draft before the 5th round .
    at no time have there been more than 4 or 5 players making it past the
    18th round .

    not sure how that would affect your numbers , but i completely understand ,
    when Grey refers to a certain %age of abandoned public league teams , how
    that might happen .

    i don’t often play in espn leagues , but the few times that i visited the
    fantasy message boards (more than 5 years ago) i witnessed a great deal
    of immaturity , as exhibited by the level of education through the name-calling , discussions about how my dick is bigger than yours , and
    who’s a bigger pussy .

    again , i have no idea how my mock draft experiences might affect your
    numbers , but i appreciate being given the opportunity to let people know
    my feelings about espn .

    • chata says:
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      @chata,
      12 team … 5×5′s … MI , CI , etc .

      • Tony says:
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        @chata, espn has been terrible mock drafting this year as well…. A guy took logan morrison with the #1 overall pick, he said his little brother said he was good…. I “x’d” out after that, not worth wasting my time.

    • @chata, Not really but it plays a role in how people draft as most people either 1) don’t adjust the default rankings and, whether knowningly or not, are influenced by them or 2) adjust their rankings starting from ESPN’s ADP so there’s an influence.

    • Eddy says:
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      @chata, I couldn’t agree more. I’ve done only one ESPN mock this season and I made it until the 19th round where it was just pointless to continue, with six people on auto draft.

      Normally I don’t care, but I need to know how to play my RCL, seeing as that’s the only league I’ll use ESPN for.

      Last season it wasn’t a big deal because I managed to host razzmocks throughout the off season, but I just haven’t had the time this year.

      Now that Yahoo leagues are public I hope that next season Razzball can make the transfer.

  4. belmarbaby says:
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    what about cbs sportsline rudy?

    • @belmarbaby, Not enough respondents in the poll to justify 3 different versions of the Point Shares. Isn’t CBS very similar to ESPN?

  5. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    Great stuff, Rudy. I use Pale Moon, which is kind of a stripped down version of Firefox, and everything looks good.

    • @VinWins, Thanks. I haven’t tried Pale Moon’s browser but enjoy their beers.

  6. One thing I forgot to mention in the post: if you want to use straight projections, use Steamer over ZiPs since Steamer is trying to do accurate playing time projections whereas ZiPS does not.

    • Bourne says:
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      @Rudy Gamble, based on the fangraphs link, zips is better for bats and Streamer for pitching, right?

      • @Bourne, Yes. The one thing I’d like to have seen is what would be the optimal mix b/w all the services. I like using 2+ services for stat and playing time projections to help reduce the potential of an outlier in one service having too big of an impact.

  7. fyodor says:
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    Rudy.
    Outstanding piece; very sound, very helpful to me.
    I appreciate all the hours you gave to it.
    Thanks.

  8. JARED says:
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    Hey Grey,

    I can only keep 10 of these studs. What are your thoughts? It’s a 12 Team AL only league. I will list the contracts too. The asterisks indicate who I think I am gonna keep for sure.

    Smoak 7C
    * Kendrick 22C
    Betemit 4C
    * Andrus 9D
    * Hosmer 5B
    Gentry 2B
    Andruw Jones 1B
    Jarrod Dyson 3B

    * Capps 5B
    * Fister 13C
    Matt Harrison 2B
    * Joe Nathan 5C
    Ogando 4C
    * Walden 5B
    * C.J. Wilson 16C

    • @JARED, Kendrick, Hosmer, Andrus, Walden, CJ Wilson, Smoak, Fister, Harrison, Nathan, Capps

  9. PFR says:
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    Rudy – appreciate the work you do on this. Extremely helpful, especially in my auction leagues.

    I was surprised to see some RP’s so high. Even if you dont pay full price for Kimbrel or Papelbon, do you think its worth investing in the high teens ($260 budget) for a closer?

    Biggest surprise so far is Mark Reynolds over A.Beltre.

    • @PFR, I don’t like investing too much in closers. In snake drafts, I prefer to pick something like the 4th-7th best closer because you don’t want to mistime the closer run and reach for Kimbrel in the 4th round and then closers don’t go until the 6th/7th round.

      Agreed on Reynolds > Beltre. We drafted Reynolds in an AL-only league on Friday and have a pit in our stomach. I’d take Beltre over Reynolds any day but PS definitely makes me reconsider Reynolds more than I would otherwise. You can see he gets penalize pretty heavily for AVG (projection at .221) but 35 HR and 9 SB at 3B with decent R/RBI is pretty valuable.

  10. Sal says:
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    So lets say we are playing in a yahoo head to head each league where standard scoring is used….would it be smart to tackle just offense players early and solidify the offense and after draft pure closers and middle relievers once the hitting has been solidified. This would allow one to win at least 4 out 5 categories batting categories more often then not since our offense would be stacked as we would draft top tier starters as everyone else does. Like stated, we have no starters but pure closers of the likes of kimbrel storen and mariano allowing us to win the saves, Era, and whip categories at the expense of wins and strikeouts. Thus every week more often then not we would walk away with a 7-3 win.

    I have done 12 team mock drafts and employing such as technique allows me to walk away with a lineup with the an offense that usually has Kemp, Reyes, Texeira, Bourne, Napoli, Weeks Konerko, Reynolds, dee gordon, paul Goldschmidt and a healthy bench including gaby sanchez and cozart (Looking to win SB Runs Hr and Rbis every week)

    and a pitching staff including mariano, storen walden, heath bell, venters, romo, mike adams and two sub par starters that would not be started (only done because we need to at least get two starters). If anything those two starters could be rotated with free agent pickup for quality spot starts where we wouldnt hurt our ERA and WHIP and vulture some wins and maybe take that category too.

    I have no idea if it would work and wanted to hear your input.

    • @Sal, Assuming no IP minimums, a hitter + reliever strategy for H2H isn’t bad but has risk. You are forfeiting W/K completely. Almost zero chance of winning. You are nearly guaranteed SV. But I don’t think you can guarantee you’ll always win the other categories. ERA/WHIP is streaky with relievers – a bad inning or two and you’re screwed. You can always go against a good offense too.

      Here’s what I’d think would be ‘best case’ chances of winning in a given week per category as:

      R – 80%
      HR – 80%
      RBI – 80%
      SB – 80%
      AVG – 80%
      W – 0%
      SV – 100%
      ERA – 65%
      WHIP – 65%
      K – 0%

      This would come out to an average winning % of 63.5%.

      But I think a more realistic outcome is:

      R – 65%
      HR – 65%
      RBI – 65%
      SB – 65%
      AVG – 65%
      W – 0%
      SV – 85%
      ERA – 60%
      WHIP – 60%

      That comes out to a 53% winning percentage.

      So it’s definitely possible to win that way but I’d probably lean to a more balanced draft….

    • Bada Bing says:
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      @Sal, This strategy can definitely work in a h2h each cat league. I would suggest grabbing one high end pitcher who is going to give you consistent, solid starts to keep your ERA from going through the roof every time one of your closers gives up a few runs. Since K’s don’t matter, you don’t have to use a really high pick on this pitcher with high strikeouts. Instead you can find someone with good peripherals like Cain, Zimmermann, or Haren later on. I’m no expert, but it has worked for me in the past.

  11. JaHerer22 says:
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    12 Team Keeper league where you keep up to 8 and those kept count as your 1st 8 draft picks. Standard scoring with the addition of OPS and QS. Which 8 should I keep?

    Joey Votto
    Justin Upton
    Brian McCann
    Chase Utley
    Michael Bourn
    B.J. Upton
    Alex Gordon
    Cole Hamels
    Zach Grienke

    Mostly trying to decide which OFs other than J-Up I should keep and whether I should keep Utley. Thanks.

    • @JaHerer22, Definitely yes on Votto, J-Up, Hamels, Greinke, McCann. With OPS, you have to skew towards power vs speed so Bourn is out. I’d take a chance with Gordon and Utley as 6th/7th. I guess BJ Upton as 8th but I don’t love it…

      • JaHerer22 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, Thanks. I could keep only 7 and get an extra early draft pick. This has worked out well for me in the past but it’s risky, depends on what other teams throw out there.

        • @JaHerer22, Gotcha. I think BJ Upton probably is better than the average 7th/8th pick in your league. He’s actually quite high in 12 team Point Shares and he shouldn’t lose that much value with OPS (he has some power).

  12. Ian says:
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    Wait, where are you finding ESPN’s ADP? I can’t seem to find it. Can you past a direct link for me?

    • @Ian, Had to create a fake league and then cut/paste the default rankings into a spreadsheet.

  13. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    @ Rudy – What’s the deal with the “Steamers” projections. I’m looking for some projections to fill in after Grey’s top 300. any Suggestions? Any preference between Zips / Steamers / RotoChamp?

    • @The Talented Mr. Dope Man, I think ZIPS and Steamer are the best two BUT you have to adjust playing time with ZIPS. So if you don’t want to do that work, I’d go with Steamer. Just note I think they are missing Asian imports. I like Rotochamp’s software and playing time projections but I don’t have a POV on their projections – they came out okay in this test but definitely below Steamer – http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/forecasters_challenge_final_2011_results/.

      • The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, thanks man!

        Rotochamp proj’s are decent, but they “poo the bed” with young players. they’re equation rely’s heavily on MLB stats (not MiLB).

        • @The Talented Mr. Dope Man, I think young players and imports are always the toughest. But good to know.

  14. MattTruss223 says:
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    Rudy, did you catch my question up top? Appreciate your feedback.

    • @MattTruss223, Yup, answered it.

  15. Big Magoo says:
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    The standouts to me are Beltre, Moore, and Bard. Bard has great stuff and it’ll be interesting to see how he does the second and third times going through a lineup, from both a stamina and familiarity standpoint. I was shocked to see how low Beltre and Moore are though. I’m expecting them to have much better years than is reflected there. Thanks for all the hard work, Rudy!

    • @Big Magoo, I agree those are definitely 3. I don’t trust Bard at all. Tom Tango did an interesting analysis on SP converting to RP and vice versa (http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/should_era_and_era_adjust_for_the_role_of_the_pitcher/). I don’t think ZiPS or Steamer takes this into account so RPs turning to SPs probably have better ERA/WHIP than they should (and vice versa).

      Beltre – I hear you. I mentioned in another post I like him better than his PS rank. One note is that I’m a little wary of 3B once they hit 30. They seem to break down a lot.

      Moore – Love his upside. Pretty crazy that I have a 100 pick difference vs. ESPN ADP. Here’s what i have as projections: 168/12 W /3.70/1.35/178 K. Clearly it’s ERA/WHIP dragging him down. ZiPS/Steamer almost identical on those ratios. FG Fans and Rotochamp think much mo(o)re – their average is something like: 3.25/1.16. I think that’s a lot to ask from a rookie in the AL East who hasn’t shown great control in the minor leagues. Just look at how Hellickson’s K and BB rates changed when moving from AAA to MLB last year…

  16. Pochucker says:
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    Off topic but saw yours and Greys team in the LABR 15t mix expert leagues.
    Great team! Longoria as your second rd pick? Thought those other guys were “experts” You should run away with it!

    • Skeptic says:
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      @Rudy Gamble, I’m curious, too. Who influenced the AGON over Prince pick?

      Thanks for PS, again! This is the most valuable piece of fantasy prep paraphernalia out there.

    • @Pochucker, Yeah, we’re psyched about the team. Will have a write-up this week. Longoria at #20 was a gift. We almost took him at #11!

      @Skeptic – You’re welcome on PS and thanks for the kind words. When someone named ‘Skeptic’ says good things, it feels extra special. I think Grey and I were on same page with A-Gonz over Fielder (really a debate of A-Gonz over Longoria). The PS tell the story there – about even except A-Gonz projected to be stronger on AVG.

    • RandomItalicizedVoice says:
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      @Pochucker, Also saw these draft results Rudy and I think you guys came away with easily the best team. I’d be real psyched with that roster in a 15-teamer, expert or not. Nice work.

      • @RandomItalicizedVoice, thanks. let’s hope the final standings turn out as well as the draft :0

  17. Bfeels says:
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    12 team mixed 6×6 categories (OPS and Losses in addition to standard). Active roster is small with just 9 batters – 3OF, 3b, ss, 2nd, 1st, c, utility. 2sp, 2rp, 2p.

    Keep 5 with them being your first five picks, draft starts round 6.  Currently I have Granderson, Mccutchen, Uggla, Lawrie and Price. 

    I have a guy wanting Granderson. I preferred to upgrade draft pick as part of a deal but he won’t go for it.  Current deal being discusses is Granderson for Sandoval and Konerko. You think I should do it or hold?  If a go, who from my initial list gets thrown back in the pool to make room? 

    Thanks you guys are the best

    • @Bfeels, I don’t like that trade at all. Sandoval a somewhat AVG 3B (but you have Lawrie). Konerko is somewhat below average with age risk in a deep category. Stick w/ what you got.

  18. PublicEnemy#1 says:
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    10 team 5×5 (we use QS and SV/H). Adjust rosters every Monday. Limit of 200 starts for SPs. Just wondering some opinions on my draft this past weekend:

    Posey
    Hosmer
    Kendrick
    Wright
    Andrus
    Howard
    Kipnis
    Braun
    JUpton
    Ad.Jones
    Fowler
    Mayberry
    I.Davis

    Bench: Cozart, Gamel, Trout, Alonso

    Cliff Lee
    Gallardo
    Latos
    MMoore
    Garza
    Morrow
    Betancourt
    Marmol
    Jansen

    Bench: SRomo

    • @PublicEnemy#1, Seems like a strong team. Love Braun/J-Up as a top 2. Seems like you’ve got some weak spots towards the end of your roster (Fowler and Mayberry?). Nice top of rotation. Relievers solid (espec. for Ks). You should run it through Point Shares and see what it spits back for strengths/weaknesses.

  19. JTin says:
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    Love this. Can you help me pick 4 keepers from this list? ($5 annual bumps)

    B. Lawrie ($10 this year)
    Napoli ($13)
    Kershaw ($23)
    J. Bruce ($17)
    L.Morrison ($6)
    R. Weeks ($13)
    E.Andrus ($21)

    And would you trade Napoli straight up for Matt Moore at $6?
    Thanks!

    • @JTin, Not sure what the format is but Lawrie/Napoli/Bruce/Kershaw/Morrison would be my 5. I like the trade as Napoli has little upside and Moore has a chance to be a stud.

  20. Chris says:
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    @Rudy:

    13 team 5×5 roto keeper. Each team gets three 3 yr keepers and one 1 yr keeper. Any 1 yr keeper can be converted to a 3 yr keeper or be returned to the draft pool.

    I know Grey slightly prefers Castro to Lawrie in the top 100 (and with only 3 drafts slots difference, they’re essentially interchangeable), but who do you think has the brighter outlook for potentially the next 3 yrs? Or are they roughly the same?

    I personally prefer Lawrie, but would have to give up a little bit of draft position (5 slots in the same rd) to acquire him. Castro I currently have as an in house option. Just looking for a 2nd opinion if trading for Lawrie is worth my while, especially given the mild draft position cost.

    • @Chris, I like Lawrie more than Castro. Not convinced Castro ever gets above 15+ HR or 25+ SB. Strong on AVG but not a lot of upside. Lawrie could deliver in all 5 categories. Go Lawrie.

      • chata says:
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        @Rudy Gamble,

        having said that , what was your reaction in that expert mock , when
        the guy took castro with the 26th pick , over-all ??
        would have taken me a while to regain my composure .

        • @chata, we were happy b/c he didn’t take a pitcher or OF which were our targets for 3rd/4th round. but definitely surprised. that and the early andrus pick influenced the somewhat regrettable 5th round pick of asdrubal.

          • Chris says:
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            @Rudy Gamble,

            Thanks! I’ll go after Lawrie.

  21. birrrdy! says:
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    Awesome, Rudy. Are you going to do NL-only (and AL-only) again this year? Probably only need to do 10-team versions if you do, but it is immensely helpful for us NL-only types. THX!

    • @birrrdy!, Yes, I’ll get that up as part of v2 which will be around March 10th.

      • birrrdy! says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, thanks, that’s awesome!

        Just became a new dad too. I’m in the hospital right now with a a day old newborn girl. Congrats on your addition too!

        Best,
        Birrrdy

        • @birrrdy!, Congrats birrrdy! C’mon, you couldn’t plan the baby in the offseason. This is draft season. You gotta think ahead :0

  22. nightpandas says:
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    Great stuff!
    What are your thoughts on my five keepers?
    15 team league, OPS a stat (yahoo league)

    Kemp
    Pujols
    Aramis Ramirez
    Rollins
    Choo

    Should I replace Choo with Cuddyer (2B elig) or take a chance on Trout or Gordon. I don’t think I’m going to keep pitchers (only two I would consider would be JZimm or Ubaldo

    • @nightpandas, i prefer choo over cuddyer. a-ram and rollins are older – keeping trout and gordon instead of them is good for long-term but will hurt you this year.

  23. Griff says:
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    Hey Rudy,

    Side question on methodology. What are your thoughts on comparing value to average player vs. replacement player? For example, you compared SS to the 9-10th best, rather than the replacement level of 18th. Outfield, you compared to a player presumably in the low 30s, as opposed to low 50s for replacement-level.

    I’ve been pondering this with my own ranks, so I’m curious to hear your logic on which approach is better.

    Thanks for the work you put in.

  24. Rudy,

    Thanks so much for doing this. Going to be very helpful. I hope to see it in the Razzball war room.

    As for projections, on fantasy baseball cafe, a poster has compiled a Wisdom of the Crowd Projections list, which incorporates Marcel, ZiPS, Cairo, Steamer, ESPN, Davenport, CBS, and three other sources. It can be downloaded on google docs at http://tinyurl.com/6ssok6z.

    • @Jason P, Thanks. Talking w/ Grey about how we’d integrate into the War Room.

  25. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    Rudy,

    for AL / NL only leagues would you just increase the dollar amount $5 – $10?

  26. I don’t think there’s a straight translation to AL/NL. I can post it sometime next week – will that work?

  27. Panti Jose says:
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    Rudy, I know this is an older post, so if you don’t respond, I understand. I agree with you about the second tier of third basemen being quite deep. I also see Point Shares, and most other projections, showing Sir Albert with superior numbers in 2012 to Miggy. Assuming I devalue Miggy’s third base eligibility accordingly, what is to keep me from taking Albert with the first pick? I know he has no true bopper to protect him in that lineup, but with Scoscia he might get back up to 12-15 bags or so. Am I totally off on this?

    • @Panti Jose, I think 3B eligibility adds about $2 worth of value to Miggy which doesn’t impact my ranking of him very much. My PS says Albert is the #1 pick….but my gut is saying take Miggy ahead of Albert this year. I don’t trust Albert getting 12-15 SBs (look at Hunter’s SBs over the past 3 years) given the investment they made in him. I like Braun and Kemp as the first 2 players but ONLY if I feel confident I can at least get Teix in the 2nd round. If not, I probably take Miggy. In some ways, I’m happiest when I don’t have to make those tough calls on draft day :)

  28. Art Vandelay says:
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    Rudy, this is awesome as usual, thanks. One thing that stands out to me is that closers are being systematically under-valued by drafters. Do you have any idea why that is? Seems like it is pushing down position players in your rankings just a bit.

    I’m not sure it makes a huge difference to me in terms of draft strategy, since closers are under-valued pretty much across the board and you can get good value later in the draft, which aligns with my usual “punt closer” (more or less) strategy.

    • @Art Vandelay, It’s just commonplace that drafters undervalue closers b/c they feel they only contribute to one stat and that there will be save opportunities in free agency. There is clear value in ERA/WHIP/K for good closers vs. bad (here’s an old post I did on the topic – http://razzball.com/groaning-at-bad-punditry-%E2%80%93-when-to-draft-closers/).

      Each draft is different and Grey and I tend to pick and choose our closer spots to maximize value. It’s rare that we draft a team that’s hurting for saves and we also gobble up any FAs with save chances. You can always trade closers so stockpiling saves is always a good idea.

      EXCEPT with H2H of course.

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