Now’s the time when we put all of our 2012 baseball predictions in one place. Then in October we can look back at this and laugh. Oh, and we will laugh. Big, bellowing, seat of your pants laughs. Hindsight is indeed 20/20. But where’s the harm in setting ourselves to look like jackasses? We run a fantasy baseball blog, after all. Grey’s picks in RED. Rudy’s picks in BLUE. (For what it’s Wuertz, last year Grey was two games away from predicting the World Series and he did predict the AL Rookie of the Year, NL Cy Young and NL MVP. Take my man to Vegas!) Anyway, here’s our predictions for baseball’s post-season awards and whatnot:
AL Pennant Winner – Los Angeles Angels of Not Really Los Angeles – I hate to go with the obvious… That’s why I’m not choosing anyone from the AL East.
AL Pennant Winner – Texas Rangers – I live 20 minutes from their AAA stadium. Hoping this gets me free tacos for the year.
NL Pennant Winner – Cincinnati Reds – Dusty will once again face his nemesis Pujols in a series touted as, The Toothpick vs. The Hispanic Splinter.
NL Pennant Winner – Philadelphia Phillies - As long as the three aces stay healthy, I think the Phillies are the favorite even if their lineup went in the dumper.
World Series Champion – Reds – An added prediction: Game five of the series and Mike Leake’s arm will fall off from overuse. Only this will turn out to be a blessing because after the Reds gave Votto $200 million dollars, they’ll have no money for bats, so Votto will use Leake’s arm to bat with and homer.
World Series Champion – Texas Rangers – Free tacos!
AL ROY – Yu Darvish – I almost put Jesus Montero, but history tells us that imported pitchers do well their first year and if we ignore that we’re doomed to repeat it… But, I guess, I’m not ignoring it. Either way, it’s a three-way fight for AL ROY this year (with Moore too).
AL ROY – Yu Darvish – It’s ridiculous that players in overseas pro leagues still qualify for this award. Otherwise, I’d say Matt Moore.
NL ROY – Zack Cozart – This is my only prediction that I’m picking with my fantasy heart and not real baseball one. I really want Cozart to do well.
NL ROY – Mat Gamel - Not really enamored with NL rookies this year. I like Mesoraco and Rosario, but I don’t think they get enough playing time. Can’t pick Cozart because it’ll only exacerbate Grey’s man crush. Gamel’s evidently not a rookie so Yonder Alonso.
AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez – Last year, he was better than he was in his Cy Young year without the good fortune. Here’s to F-Her getting lucky again!
AL Cy Young – Jon Lester - Fried chicken and beer for everyone!
NL Cy Young – Zack Greinke – I’ll admit to wanting to pick Kershaw again, but there’s no fun in that.
NL Cy Young – Zack Greinke - Miffed I only got him in one league….but it’s the RCL!
AL MVP – Evan Longoria – I made this prediction back in January and I’m gonna stand by it. Okay, sit. It’s a long season.
AL MVP – Robinson Cano - I like Grey’s choice – particularly since he’s on a lot of our teams. There are so many good 1Bs in the AL so it’ll be hard to pick one for MVP.
NL MVP – Joey Votto – And on a cloud made of chili in the skyline of Cincy, Marge Schott’s ghost and the ghost of Joe Morgan’s broadcasting career will be smiling down.
NL MVP – Hanley Ramirez - Guillen and Hanley will be besties this year, Hanley gets a big extension, and then regresses again.
Now put your picks in the comments and we’ll look back on this in October and mock each other.
@Grey, my current crop of RPs: Putz, Marshall, Jansen, Peralta, Broxton. I don’t like that very much. Convince me otherwise? (10 teams, deep rosters)
@Jon, Huh?
Aceves just named closer. Him over Myers,broxton,or Capps???
Thanks
@Steven, Nope
I’m probably the only Reds fan in NJ, and I get so much flack from Yankee fans every year. Reading this just made my friggin day.
GO REDS!
Gamel’s not a rookie.
Rudy’s trying his best to get around the rules… *shakes fist* Rudy!
Dee Gordon for Andre Ethier. Would you do this trade in a 5X5 roto league?
Nope
Freddie Freeman was the NL ROY?
Wasn’t he?
@Grey, I thought it was your boy Kimbrel. But either way pretty impressive FML.
@Wake Up, @Grey,
It was Kimbrel.
Oh, shizz… Well, I was something like 4 for 10… I’m a hall of famer!
Grey you got them all right except the Yanks over the LAA! But they still lose to the Reds
With Jesus 2 for 2 in DH starts, what’s your estimate on him getting C eligibility now?
@Raja, 5 games? Little over a month…
AL Champ–Angels
NL Champ–Diamondbacks
WS Champ–Angels
AL ROY–Matt Moore
NL ROY–Mat Gamel
AL Cy–James Shields
NL Cy–Cole Hamels
AL MVP–Albert Pujols
NL MVP–Joey Votto
What do you think of me giving up F- Her $25 and Aramis $23 for Lawrie $14 and Sale $3?
The dollars are cost to keep next year.
I currently have D.Hudson, Luebke, Moore, Anibal in the rotation. Relievers are Street, Betancourt, Balfour, Aceves, Meloncon, Walden.
My hitters are Avila, Ike, Espinosa, Tulo, Moustakas, Braun, Victorino, Duda, Delmon, Cain, Cozart.
12 team mixed c,1b,2b,3b,ss,3xOF, util and 1450IP
@Paul, I don’t think you can lose F-Her, but I like the trade in a vacuum…
Weird, I just posted a similar post to my league message board about 1.5 hours ago. My WS pick: CIN, my NL MVP pick: Votto. I said in the blurb I wrote that I think I’m the only one that’s this high on the Reds since some/most predictions I’ve seen don’t even have them making the playoffs. But then the most accurate ‘stache in the land picks them too! I feel smarterer. I’ve got CIN over TB Rays though. My other pick: AL MVP – Miggy. So obvious, but whatevs. FYI I’m a Braves fan, no CIN bias. Though I did pick a ATL/CIN NLCS.
AL Champ – Los Angeles Angels
NL Champ – Milwaukee Brewers
WS Champ – Milwaukee Brewers
AL ROY – Yu Darvish
NL ROY – Bryce Harper
AL CY – Yu Darvish
NL CY – Zack Greinke
AL MVP – Albert Pujols
NL MVP – Zack Greinke
I agree, Darvish for AL Cy… and I’m an Angels fan. @Bob Saget,
The NL seems like it doesn’t have a top tier this year. I think there are way too many flaws on the Reds and the Phillies for them to make the series. I’d go with a mild surprise like the Braves or D’Backs.
Otherwise you guys really want to either be really wrong or really right, huh? No Pujols, Halladay, Verlander, Braun, Kershaw, Yankees…
And yeah, Gamel would be a real sleeper for ROY considering he’s not a rookie.
@Jay29, Oh and what about Alonso for ROY? He seems like the NL rookie hitter most likely to play a full season and put up a respectable batting average for the writers to drool over.
0 tigers? Lame. I own every play except Felix and hanley at least once.
@Bourne, Ha
Anybody know why I can’t polite bj up on the dl in yahoo league?
@BigFatHippo, Haha fkin spellcheck, “Put”
@BigFatHippo, BigFatFingers too, huh?
@Grey, Oh, and Matt Holliday for MVP
@BigFatHippo, this is frustrating me as well! Everybody else in the league seems to be able to DL their players and make their free pick ups
@B.o.B, they might be sober
@BigFatHippo, Will be there by 5 pm EST that is the deadline to set the 25 man roster.
@Smokey, If they are on the DL tonight, then they will probably be on the Yahoo DL list tomorrow morning.
@Bill S. Preston, Esq., Not necessarily. Yahoo, CBs and ESPN update at different times during the day.
@Smokey, But there’s guys in my league who’ve already dl’d peeps, shit. Oh and you were over the line Smokey!
@BigFatHippo, You want a toe? I can get you a toe by 3 this afternoon. With nail polish.
@Smokey, A rules a rule
@BigFatHippo, Mark it Zero!
Oh, and I was just saying that my personal experience has been that yahoo makes changes around 3am eastern.
@Bill S. Preston, Esq., This is not ‘Nam. This is bowling. There are rules. I have seen them make moves mid day unless im having another acid flashback.
@Bill S. Preston, Esq.,
you da man !
how’s Ted ?
bernadina,revere,venable or lahair for for a few games
@AL KOHOLIC, Bernadina
@Grey, You need to ask AL if his questions pertain to his RCL team (emoticon)
@AL KOHOLIC, You’re violating Rule #1.
@Steve, I thought Rule #1 was don’t talk about Razzball.
@Grey, Clause 17, subclause 5 (xiii), indemnifies you if you’re in an RCL…
@Steve, Should I say, *allows* it, if you’re in an RCL. There’s no clause that covers what AL is doing (emoticon)
I’m famous! Now I’m glad my parents named me VinWins so I know it was me Rudy mentioned in the podcast.
@VinWins, Ha!
The Boston Red Sox will win the 2012 World Series and it will not be close. Everyone crowned them champs last year and now no one likes them? No historically awful start and finish this time around…
But everyone likes the Yankees this year…hmmmmmmm Yankees lucked into the playoffs with Nova, Colon and Garcia pitching out of their minds last year, but were exposed by the Tigers for what they were. Average. They wont be so lucky this time. The pitching will fall apart. How many times do you need to see Phil Hughes before we know hes never gunna start 33 games? Nova will implode with a ERA over 5 #sophmoreslump. and CC Fat Slob Sabathia will mistake Pineda for an Empanada and gain another 50 pounds. Hey, at least AAA Scranton looks good in 2012… TB easily grabs a wild card while the illustrious NYY fight Toronto for 3rd in the East.
Detroit wins the Central in a walk
Texas wins the West (Angels are the other wild card)
Phillies win the NL East and the pennant (Halladay, Lee, Hamels enough even with no Utley/Howard)
Brewers win the NL Central (easy pick because i do not like the Cards)
Arizona wins the NL West (Upton is a monster)
Giants and Marlins win Wild Cards
AL Roy Jesus Montero
NL Roy Yonder Alonso
AL Cy Verlander
NL Cy Halladay
AL MVP A Gone
NL MVP Jose Reyes
I’m all for the Tigers knocking off the Red Sox. (It could happen! #AngelsintheOF), but I’m just terrified of a healthy lineup that includes: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crawford, AGone, Youk, and Ortiz. smh over 50 ESPN “analysts and experts” picked their WS winners and only 1 picked the Red Sox. Congrats to Karl Ravech for not being influenced by the masses. Now I’m headed over to KFC to have a cold one to celebrate Bostons championship! Its Opening Day AMERICA style! Go Tigers!
@Rudy, did you guys see that! Rudy messed up his NL Roy pick, panicked, scrolled down to the comments and stole my NL Roy pick!
@captainpyper, boston fans are the worst
@seph meier, ya they are. glad im a Tigers fan.
@captainpyper, me too. Glad im anything but!
Need to make some final roster tweaks in a deep dynasty league, any advice would be appreciated. Pick one out each group please.
Bench OF: R. Bernadina, N. Reimold, C. Heisy, A. Huff
Bench 3B: J. Francisco, L. Chisenhall, E. Nunez, C. McGehee
Lottery SAGNOF: Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, JP Howell, Jake McGee, Fernando Rodney
Or if these lottery SAGNOFs are too much of a stretch I could pick up 3 players from the OF/3B instead.
@Drew, Bernadina, Francisco, Howell
@Grey, Sweet. I already have Bernadina & Francisco. The other guys were dropped recently, wasn’t sure if they were upgrades or not. Will be putting in a bid for Howell. Thanks for the help.
No problem…
oh,and i just assume you know it by now,but great job once again getting us prepared for a crazy season
@AL KOHOLIC, No problem…
AL Champ: Tampa
NL Champ: Miwaukee
WS: Tampa in the lowest rated series in the live ball era
AL MVP: Longo
NL MVP: McCutchen
AL ROY: Moore
NL ROY: Yonder Alonzo
AL CY: Verlander
NL CY: Greinke in his walk year, then will be the #1 FA getting a plus 200M contract.
Greg Holland or Aceves?
Aceves
Grey, I’m in a 12 team head to head league with 7×7 scoring: holds and innings pitched are the extra pitching categories. I have 3 slots each for SP/RP/P. 5 bench slots (1 of which i’m using for Bryce Harper to help me come playoff time) These are my pitchers:
Bumgarner
Beachy
Darvish
Luebke
Beckett
Colby Lewis
Nicasio
Betancourt
Thornton
Kenley
Romo
Holland
Myers
My question is whether I should drop some of the relievers to pick up more starters to maximize 2-start weeks? Guys like Buehrle, Colon, Hughes, Leake, Niemann, Freddy Garcia are on the waiver wire. Who would you drop for any of those guys?
I’d hold for now if those are your options…
Grey, I think the Reds are a nice pick, but you will regretting it when Dusty runs Latos out there for Game 7 of the NLCS (against Marcum, as Roenicke holds out Greinke for the Series) then decides to leave him in the (tied) game as they go back out for the 8th, instead of turning to Chapman, who’s been warming up in the ‘pen… two doubles later and K-Rod>Axman closes out the Reds.
AL Pennant Winner – Angels
(AL Runner-Up – Rays)
NL Pennant Winner – Brewers
(NL Runner-Up – Reds)
World Series Champion – Angels
AL ROY – Yoenis Cespedes
NL ROY – Trevor Bauer
AL Cy Young – David Price
NL Cy Young – Zack Greinke
AL MVP – Evan Longoria
NL MVP – Matt Kemp
AL Pennant Winner – Los Angeles Angels of Not Really Los Angeles
NL Pennant Winner – Cincinnati Reds
World Series Champion – Angels
AL ROY – Yu Darvish –
NL ROY – Zack Cozart –
AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez
NL Cy Young – Cole Hamels
AL MVP – Jose Bautista
NL MVP – Andrew McCutchen
AL Champ: Rangers (Virtually same exact roster; Darvish instead of Wilson, and a polished closer? We’ll see, he did blow some playoff saves with MN)
NL Champ: Braves (Fantastic pitching staff, lights-out bullpen. If Heyward bounces back and Freeman takes a step forward, could be a very potent offense)
WS Champ: Rangers (Third time is the charm!)
AL Rookie of Year: Matt Moore (Maddon’s confidence in starting him in the playoffs in New York speaks volumes of his talent and mental readiness for the Majors)
NL Rookie of Year: Trevor Bauer (pretty craptacular group of NL rookies this year, with a June 1st call-up, he has a chance to be better than most rookies, even with good, not great numbers)
AL Cy Young: David Price (this could be the year everything clicks for Price. With an aging Yankees lineup, and Red Sox not having the offense they have had in years past, he should pick up a handful more wins…maybe cracks the magical 20-win mark)
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw (I still dont think we have seen the best of Kershaw…could push for 250 k’s with a sub-2.5 ERA…still needs to keep walks to a minimum, but even with the Dodgers, might crack 17-18 wins?)
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera (The Tigers clinch the AL Central in mid-July and Miggy celebrates with 6 bottles of champagne and goes to de-tox for a week. Hits 40+ jacks for the first time in his career. Think 2009 Albert Pujols)
NL MVP: Justin Upton (Cunnilingus Upton puts together the best season so far in his career. Leads the NL in RBI, and even sneaks past Giancarlo for HR champ)
Grey, can you rank M.Saunders, Peguero and C.Wells? Slim pickings on the free-agent list in a 4×4 AL-only league (I’m only using them until Upton returns from DL, so this is short-term value).
You ranked them…
Grey,
Drop Jonathan Sanchez for Mike Minor?
Drop Jonathan Sanchez for Tim Stauffer?
Hang on to Jonathan Sanchez?
Can go with Minor if you like… Tomato-tomahto at this point…
My roto team is extremely light on SB’s and deep in SP. Would you drop Ubaldo or Scherzer for any of the following (OBP instead of AVG, offensive K’s as a negative cat):
Jordan Schafer, Nyjer Morgan, Ben Revere, Denard Span, Will Venable, Rajai Davis (yea yea, I know I’m digging deep)
I wouldn’t…
Had my 12 tm h2h auction last night…pretty much went ALL offense (as you’ll see)…my pitching is awful and need some insight.
Anyrate, here goes:
C – martin
1b – Fielder
2b Pedroia
ss – Cozart
3b Gamel
OF – J.Upton, Stanton, McCutcheon
Util – Adrian Gonz and Lorenzo Cain
SP – Liriano, lester, J.Santana,D.Holland, Nolasco,Pomeranz,Porcello
RP – Myers, Capps, Clippard,G.Holland, Aroldis,Parnell
Not a lot of options on waivers but here’s some pitchers out there, thoughts on who to drop and pick up are appreciated.
Dickey, Lohse, Ogando, Burnett,Nicasio,Blanton,Capuano, Randy Wolf, Peavy, and even Tom Glavine (even though he’s retired years ago),
@mindicohn, Not really sure how you got that pitching staff in a 12 team league because I don’t think your hitting is that great. Nicasio over Porcello… Peavy over Pomeranz…
@Grey, auction …blew my load early on on 6 guys and then was pretty much $1 on everyone else…going to be a long season.
@mindicohn,
your hitting is pretty fantastic .
you have razzball’s consensus all-star outfield ,
plus a-gon , fielder , & , pedroia .
not sure what Grey’s looking at / for .
NL Champ – Braves
AL Champ -Tigers
WS Champ – Tigers
NL ROY – Nolan Arenado (dark horse pick)
AL ROY – Matt Moore
NL CY Young – Cole Hamels
AL CY Young – Justin Verlander
NL MVP – Matt Kemp
AL MVP – Prince Fielder
This is kinda on topic of predictions. I just made these bets over under win total bets for the regular season. $10 on each bet. win returns $19 so I need to get 7 right out of the 13 to break even. Will I?
Cubs under 74
Braves under 87
Astros under 62.5
D’backs over 86.5
Mets under 73
Miami over 86
Seattle under 71.5
Angels over 91.5
Royals over 77
Rays over 87
White sox under 76
Baltimore under 70
Tigers over 91
@ritzer, I don’t understand baseball betting… What do those numbers mean? Not even joking…
@Grey, they mean wins that those teams will get buddy
@Neidecker, Oh… Well, that’s friggin’ obvious… I’m dumb.
@Grey,
The numbers are win totals. He’s betting $10 that, for example, the Astros will be under 63 wins, Tigers over 91 wins etc…Each bet pays out $19 if he wins so he needs to get 7 right to break even. His question is….oh wise one….will he win? lose? break even?
Personally, I think he’s at 7. I like the Cubs (under), Braves (Over), D’Backs (over), Mets (Under), Royals (Over), White Sox (Under) and Tigers (Over).
I don’t see how anyone can bet that a major league baseball team will win 62 or fewer games. That’s as tough a call to make as predicting one will win 100. It happens but it’s rare.
True on the Astros too…
@Grey, You should try it Grey…I reakon you’d enjoy it.
Basically the bookie sets a win total that they think the team will achieve and you, the punter, get to select whether you think they will win more (over) or less (under) than that total.
I have bet that the Cubs will win under 74 games….So if they win 73, 72, 71… ect I win.
yeah, I got it now… Does seem like fun… But I have a rule, I don’t gamble on real baseball…
@ritzer, Braves over 87, Mets over 73 and Tigers under 91 would be my only changes… Could go either way… Those over/unders are really close to what they should be… Guess that’s why oddsmakers get all the ladies.
@Grey,As long as I win 5 I’ll be happy. It should give an extra bit of interest to a game like Houston@Pittsburgh in late August.
@Grey, everyone loves an incredibly stupid injury: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/colorado-rockies-josh-outman-injures-vomiting-battle-food-poisoning-disabled-list-strained-oblique-opening-day-article-1.1055672
My predictions:
NL Champs: Reds
AL Champs: Angels
WS Champs: Angels
NL ROY: Cozart
AL ROY: Moore
NL MVP: Votto
AL MVP: Miggy
NL CY YOUNG: Grienke
AL CY YOUNG: Haren
@3FingersBrown, Nice injury…
@Grey, He just had to get it out, man.
@Steve, ha!
@Grey, Thanks for pushing me over the edge on Aceves. A closer with SP eligibility at Yahoo is sweet indeed.
And there’s a game today!
@Steve, Yay! No problem…
@3FingersBrown,
Awesome. Didn’t someone once crack a rib coughing? That’s the only injury I can think of that is close.
@Hawk, That’s right! I can’t recall who it was though. Anyone?
Prolly Chipper…
@3FingersBrown, wasn’t that Phil Hughes?
@Colton, Yup… Thanks. I didn’t want to look it up because my editor gets annoyed when I surf the web during a session.
Reminds me of that 30 Rock episode with Paul Giamatti as the editor. Don’t get it twisted, those blind troglodytes are the ones who hold all the power in this damned biz…
@3FingersBrown, Pete Rose told me about that episode…says he wasn’t a fan.
@Colton, Charlie Hustle ain’t been right since this happened: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXGWWpqhGLs
@3FingersBrown, classic…didn’t the same thing happen to him while he was wearing a chicken costume?
@Colton, Did that happen or did I just hallucinate it?
@3FingersBrown, I was asking myself the same thing. Here is the saga http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqhSEVqsJnM
@Colton, Wow and Pete came back a third time! I really wish I could unsee the part where Yokozuna gives him the ass-face… perhaps the only thing worse than the gas-face.
@3FingersBrown, the sight of a Samoan guy with an ass the size of a SUV being oscillated into the face of the hit king must have been the most traumatizing of all.
@Hawk, I remember Sammy Sosa had back spasms for 2 weeks after sneezing…i believe Clint Barmes broke something carrying groceries up the stairs and tripped…Jeremy Affeldt stabbed his hand separating frozen burger patties…and Cory Lidle crashed a plane into a building….
@Neidecker, I think Barnes was carrying a deer carcass if I remember correctly. Don’t forget Bobby Ojeda nearly severing a finger whilst gardening.
@3FingersBrown, also Glenallen Hill had a nightmare about spiders and rolled out of bed into a glass table and then down a staircase.
@Colton, That’s amazing… I think I’m going to rename a fantasy team Glenallen Glen Hill in his honor.
@3FingersBrown, F–k you, that’s my team name.
@Colton, One of my all-time favorite films… I had a team last season called Coffee’s For Closers.
@3FingersBrown, nice…I think I was in that league and finished second. Won a set of steak knives.
@Colton, Yes!
Hey Grey, Mayberry or Eric Thames?
What would your projection look like for these two players?
Thanks
Thames
Hey Rudy,since you like Alonso to win NLROY, whatkind of projections do you see for him?
Grey…
How many ABs does Roger Bernadina get this season? Is he the odd man out if (when) the Nads bring up Harper or is that Nady?
I’d worry about that bridge when we come to it in most leagues…
Sorry, but my white guilt is forcing me to speak up.
“AL ROY – Yu Darvish – It’s ridiculous that players in overseas pro leagues still qualify for this award.”
Perhaps it could have something to do with the guy the award is named after. I seem to recall reading somewhere that he played in a pro league before joining the majors.
Are you snapping in a Z formation? I keed… You’re right… Circumstances were a bit different…
Dropped Chad Billingsley, my 6th SP, for Brandon “Alligator” Belt. C-Bills will now win the Cy Young. Please act accordingly.
Do we like Belt better than Eric “Time After” Thames?
Also did I mention I found a 2011 Bold Prediction (not Matthew Berry) that said Rajai Davis would be the MOST VALUABLE FANTASY PLAYER IN 2011?
Now that’s bold.
HAHAHAHAHA! Wait, breathing… HA! Belt has more upside than Thames…
help! hate chasing the closer merry go round … but have thornton. only 10 FA moves for the year (9 for me as I picked up Henry R). Hector Santiago has a really good shot of landing the job. Do I drop Lindstrom for him? Not Thornton right? That would be cleaner, but i could get screwed as it’s a binary event.
Hold for now…
Anyone hear anything on Nelson Cruz? His elbow ok? Can’t seem to find any info and I gotta set my weekly line-up in a couple hours…thanks!
It’s okay (for now)… X-Rays were negative…
hanley with the MVP eh rudy? very interesting. i just feel apathy is incurable in big headed athletes.
whatre your thoughts on this trade i just made?
marmol/cahill vs brandon morrow/worley (saves unimportant)
@charlie batch, grey/rudy, if possible
It’s fair…
Grey: 12 team 5×5 league with $200 FAAB budget. How much would you bid on Peralta or Aceves? We already have Nathan (and Adams), Chris Perez (and Pistano) and Jordan Walden. Thanks!
@Henry Chinaski, $11 on each…
Hector Santiago or Melancon?
@Schmohawks Bob, I’d hold, but could see the reverse thinking…
@Grey, So I’m clear, hold Santiago?
@Schmohawks Bob, Yeah, hold for right now…
10 managers. Start 6 sp, 3 rp, 1 p. I have motte, kenley,frank,thornton, & balfour
Would you add aceves or peralta and cut balfour, thornton?
@johnny o, Aceves over Thornton…
Who would you like more for a spot start tomorrow (position doesn’t matter): Colby, Thames, Encarnacion? I’m actually leaning Thames.
@Wilsonian, Thames
AL Champ–Detroit
NL Champ–Washington
WS Champ–Detroit
AL ROY–Jesus Montero
NL ROY–Yonder Alonso
AL Cy–Dan Haren
NL Cy–Madison Bumgarner
AL MVP–Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP–Joey Votto
Kinda all over the place. I have a feeling this is the year Tulowitzki plays 160 games and deserves a NL MVP, but not sure the Rockies win enough games.
Oh and Washington, I think they’ll be good. A rotation with Strasburg, Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez looks nice. A bounceback from Werth and Zimmerman and they are right there.
AL Champ: Tampa Bay Rays – best pitching staff in baseball, a true MVP candidate (Longoria), and the addition of Pena solidifies the lineup
NL Champ: Cincinnati Reds – they finally have their ace, one of the best hitters in baseball (Votto), and a rising star that takes a big step forward (Bruce)
WS Champ: Rays – best pitching and manager in the game = WS ring
NL ROY: Mat Gamel – slim pickings (as others have mentioned) so I’ll go with a former top prospect who’s finally getting his full-time shot in his physical prime
AL ROY: Yu Darvish – great stuff and control should translate immediately
NL MVP: Joey Votto – puts up career-best numbers and leads the Reds to the World Series
AL MVP: Albert Pujols – proves that he’s still the best player in the game
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw – best pitcher in the game
AL Cy Young: David Price – has been borderline-elite for a few years now and finally takes that next step forward
Should i take this deal 14 h2h daily league? Bamgarner and Choo for CC and Maybin
@Billy, Choo side…
posting this before i go back and read all of today’s stuff .
5:22pm bobby valentine said (on weei) that :
1) after consulting with coaches and players , aceves has the skills to
be the 1st choice of closers (but melancon will be in the mix).
valentine further stated that he sees very little to no chances of using
aceves as a 3 inning closer , but has no qualms about sending him back out there (for 2 innings) , unlike how some managers around the league use
their closers .
2) josh beckett (thumb issue) will definitely start saturday’s game and will
stay in there as long as he is needed , or until he wants to come out of the game (no pitch count)
c) <== fooled you !
and BV said that it would be unfair for Bard , after all he's been through
to get ready for this season , to return to the bullpen .
it ain't gonna happen .
the kid's gonna start
@chata, Yup
i want to pick up tabata. who should i drop? 5×5 roto 13 teams
Kenley Jansen, Jhoulys Chacin, Brett Myers, Jonathan Broxton, Greg Holland,Tommy Milone, Joel Peralta , Peter Bourjos, Mark Trumbo, Lorenzo Cain
Trumbo
Like the predictions guys. The real battle all year will be the Rangers and Angels (well along with the usual ESPN favs).
Anyway just wondering Grey, what team are you a fan of?
Grew up a Yankees fan, more of a baseball fan now…
Thanks Grey,
ill do that. who else would you drop for Hector Santiago. or should i hold tight for now
@aj, Milone, if you really need saves…
The ‘Launch Fantasycast’ button on my RCL league page is finally red.
Now we’re f****** talking.
@Steve, Oh yeah!
@Grey, It’s not raining is it?
Doesn’t look it…
@Grey, Ah. Yahoo stat-tracker showing a delay and a picture of a raincloud. Guess they don’t have a icon for a ludicrously overblown opening ceremony.
@Steve, No more rainouts there anyway…retractable roof.
Wow, Ali looks terrible…
@Grey, Can’t believe they are still trotting him out there for these dog and pony shows. He looks so frail and “out of it”. Couldn’t they have gotten Marvis Frazier?
Frailest I’ve seen him look… So bad… Opposite of uplifting… Downputting?
Grey,
Who do I drop from this pathetic bullpen I have to pick up Peralta:
Reed, Guerra, Lidge, Chapman, Holland
Chapman for saves…
Just showed the new Marlins stadium from above…looks ghastly.
Looks good from the inside though, which is what matters the most.
It’s the ugliest thing man ever created.
@Grey,
at the taxpayers expense .
Orel Herschiser just referred to Josh Johnson as “Gosh Johnson.” I think he’s a razzball fan
Ha!
@Ben, with the name Orel, I’m sure he’s no stranger to Gosh Johnson coming out his mouth.
@Colton, HA!
@Grey, orel the bulldog hershieser was a bowling green falcon…. cawwwwwww
Ca-caw!
Grey – I can trade Storen for either J. Garcia or Scherzer. What do you think?
Scherzer if you need an SP…
@Grey, That was Jaime Garcia.
Bleurgh. Don’t need Lohse to get the lead.
Freese!
Aw, geez…
@Grey, That’s right Grey, I’m back!
Drop Iannetta for Donaldson, Doumit, Chooch, Olivo or Wilin Rosario in a 2 catcher league where Iannetta is my 2nd C and I don’t trust the Scosciapath?
Hold for now….
Josh Johnson allowed three hits and two runs with no strikeouts in the first. Time to cut him for Nolasco? I read somewhere that Ricky’s in the best shape of his life.
Seriously though, just wanted to be the first one to ask for advice on an insane early season knee-jerk reaction move. Baseball’s back.
Ha… Oh, yeah…
@Marty Funkhouser, ha
Melancon worth a waiver claim, dropping Lidge? I fail to believe Aceves will keep the closer job for long, even my grandmother knows Melan is the better pitcher so surely Bobby V must before long. Very active money league so doubt he’ll clear waivers as people are always after saves.
@TheNewGuy, I’d hold…
Would Yahoo put Felatio on the damn DL already? For F’s sake, this is getting absolutely ridiculous…
@Wilsonian, finally!!!
On the list of the world’s ugliest things, championship rings are well up there.
@Steve, I think they’re pretty badass, maybe it’s what they stand for…
@Grey, I feel like we’re about to have the Matt Kemp suit conversation again.
Ha… Very true… I’d rock one.
In case anyone is interested, i have a real nice-looking internet feed of the game at justin.tv.
Not that I condone the practice of either broadcasting or watching via such means…
You’re trouble, Steve!
@Grey, Internet police must read Razzball. The feed is gone now.
I reported you to Al Gore.
@Steve, JohnCarlo almost got into one………….
@BigFatHippo, Yup
@Grey, that ballpark is going to kill his HR’s, unless air gets warmer and starts floating them outta there… in Coors he could hit 50+ easy, in that park? he’s gonna need to do some damage on the road.
And why does Francona sound like he’s talking through a satellite phone from Anarctica?
He sounds like me on the podcast…
@Grey, nah, he sounds like he’s getting hazed by ESPN. He’s in the same damn booth, but he sounds like he’s 5000 miles away.
NL champ- Dbacks
AL champ- Red Sox
WS champ- Red Sox
NL MVP- Jupton
AL MVP- AGone
NL Cy- Kershaw
AL Cy- Felix
NL ROY- Cozart
AL ROY- Moore
I guess no one told Hanley the 3B takes everything he can get to.
@VinWins, Talk about a terrible play…
@VinWins, good point
@BigFatHippo, My brother replied to my statement with, “Seems like that would be day 1…Probably came late.
Damnit….that was a 400+ foot fly out by Stanton.
@letsgobravos, Dah, I know.
Yikes its a graveyard out in CF…
@TheNewGuy, Yeah, center goes back…
@TheNewGuy, They should have put a big hill out there with a pole in the middle……what were they thinking?
@TheNewGuy, it’s gonna take some JohnCarlo muscle to get one out in center. He hit all of that ball and it just died…
My opponent is starting Lohse. I am less than enamoured with developments thus far.
@Steve, Lohse isn’t out of the woods yet…
@Grey, I’m just going to go cry into a pillow.
@Steve, In case people haven’t noticed, Lohse is no longer a lohser……………..
@BigFatHippo, He has a no-hitter going.
See what I did there?
@Steve, Damm you Steve, now shut up and go hunt roos or something…………
@Steve, Nice…
@Grey, I’m still crying.
@Steve, I still got it.
@Grey, With Farnsworth out but still not DLed, I’m down to 2 closers (Motte & Street) in 12 team 6×6 H2H. My opponent this week has only 2 but next weeks’ opponent has 3.
Right now I have 9 starters and one bench guy in Thames and Ackley as my only 2B. Altuve just hit waivers. Would you dump Capuano for The Imp (as Altuve would be known in Game Of Thrones) or do I pick up Howell, Santiago or Rauch for possible saves?
I don’t like having more than one bench guy and I have Craig with 2B eligibility on the DL but Altuve could be useful and those RP options don’t thrill me. What would you do?
@3FingersBrown, Ha… I’d lose Capuano for Altuve…
@Grey, Dunzo. I’m curious to see how Ventura’s pen plays out. If Thornton spits the bit, do you think he goes to Crain, Reed or Santiago?
@3FingersBrown, I think it’s whoever steps forward… Could be anyone’s deal at this point…
before he was even released by his club ,
i picked yu darvish as a cy young winner .
no reason to believe otherwise , now .
(i also said that if toronto signed him , they would win
the AL east .)
@chata, Big O, you still confuse me………………
@BigFatHippo, Ha!
Run, Boneface, run!
@Steve, I always read his name as Boner Face. Can’t read my bo-ner-face
Bartolo Colon
Homer Bailey
Alexi Ogando
Mike Leake
Carlos Zambrano
For your last starter in a 12 Team league? Match-up guys or do you see someone worth taking a flier on?
Thanks Grey
Leake… Really, they’re matchups at this point…
Someone in my otherwise-sane league (I have an insane league too; it’ll be interesting to see where I do better) dropped Carl Crawford. I feel like I have to try to pick him up–worth dropping Cain or Rasmus for?
@Long Bawls, Cain
Hey Grey
Couldn’t make my draft, so had to autopick my 5×5 12 team league (1400IP) . Just wondering if you could offer me any comments:
C – Suzuki
1B – Goldschmidt
2B- Walker
SS – Aybar
3B – Bautista
OF – Cargo
OF – Dread Pirate
OF – Bruce
Util – Zimmerman
Util – Victorino
Bench – Fowler
Bench – Hill
Bench – Mayberry
SP – Price
SP – Bumgarner
SP – Hanson
SP – Beachy
SP – Chacin
RP – Sale
RP – Bailey (have since picked up Melancon as cover)
RP – Street
RP – Lidge (off waivers)
RP – Parnell (off waivers)
Obviously will be chasing saves all season, and a little concerned about batting average with that group of hitters but like the power. Maybe Victorino is a bit of a luxury as utility (especially with Fowler available on the bench) and I should try and move him to improve my infield somewhere?
Thanks
@Oz J, I like the team… Looks like a very solid pitching core and the hitting should be competitive… If you can move Victorino for a 2nd baseman, by all means… Maybe Kendrick?
watching this grey? think lohse could be something this year?
a no hitter after five inn… hes on waiver in my league….
ive got leake..scott baker.. niemann.. or kenley jansen… i can switch out..
ive got smarja too but just picked him up lol. im in a h2h point league…no categories
@chiasports, Hold
(A) Bernadina or (B) Trumbo?
@potus, Bernadina
@Grey, @Rudy, @Hawk, @Razzballers:
I don’t know if anyone else caught the conversation between Rudy and Hawk yesterday (in the comments after Rudy’s massive, math-y post about how Point Shares/Stache Man rock). I opened the door to the discussion by asking Rudy about how he created the player projections which serve as the basis for player rankings in Point Shares.
After Rudy’s answer, Hawk gave a well-informed opinion about the level of predictive accurary needed, in his opinion, to be able to use such projections. He cited a number – 98% – and opined that anything lower provides too much variance when using the aggregate of these projections to build a team and project standings.
I didn’t have a chance to check back last night, but I thought I would toss my two cents into the mix. I’ve read in Baseball Forecaster that most projection systems haven’t cracked 70% predictive accuracy yet – if I remember correctly, I think Ron wrote that everyone is mired in the 60-68% accuracy zone. So, that’s where we’ve sat for a number of years, despite many bright minds addressing the challenge.
Moving on, I think where I would humbly disagree with Hawk is the conclusion he makes about the lack of any utility for these projections. Projections do have a place in fantasy – an important one – when properly formulated, with anecdotal evidence supporting apparent trends within the data. That’s the real takeaway from the Moneyball legacy, right? In fantasy or reality, predicting outcomes on the baseball field require educated analyses of both empirical and human elements. You can’t just crunch numbers, like Paulie D(ePodesta), nor can you simply watch a player without some statistical evaluation of results tied to his performance. If one combines these approaches in a meaningful way, the resulting projections can be used in a valuable manner.
That’s essentially what Grey and Rudy (and other experts) do. They use projections – rooted in past performance – as a starting point, and then evaluate additional factors (underlying skill trends, injury issues, age, etc.) to adjust these projections forward. This is a difficult challenge.
For example, take Jeremy Hellickson. He benefited from an extremely favorable BABIP last season while posting a mediocre K rate. Not exactly a recipe for success! So, while his surface stats looked great, most fantasy folks have devised 2012 projections for WHIP and ERA that show a decline, due to the reasonable expectation that his BABIP regresses to the mean. The eyeball test this spring also appears to support a retraction of sorts; Hellickson has been routinely knocked around, seems a little “short” in his delivery, and generally, has looked crappy. Plus, he’s a short RHP (historically, not much success for this body type in MLB history).
On the flip side, though, Hellickson’s swinging strike rate in 2011 was good; he induced a high rate of popouts (easily converted into outs); he’s young; and he’s had solid K/9 rates in the minors. Finally, he was developed by a great, forward-thinking MLB organization.
So… you can understand from this example why projections are hard to nail with greater than ~65% accuracy. There are often countervailing forces at work – both on the field and on Excel sheets.
But shooting for 98% accuracy, as Hawk mentioned, doesn’t appear realistic… nor necessary. Even if Rudy and Grey’s projections don’t crack 70% predictive accuracy, the fact that they are more correct than other systems/evaluators speak to the validity in using their projections/rankings to build a team. The overall quality of their work should yield success for you, due to their slightly higher predictive accuracy (as shown in Rudy’s article) than other experts. They will be better than others in helping you project where you finish in the stat categories – providing a more accurate spread in which your stats may fall. It may only be a slight advantage, but it is an advantage in a game where tiny stat shifts can win or lose titles.
And that’s the big takeaway from Rudy’s article to me, besides from my realization that Rudy could have helped create “The Big Short” as an i-banker. As much as we love Rudy and Grey for the shizz and gigglez, these guys are the kings of fantasy right now. Rudy’s Point Shares and Grey’s rankings (which are based on their projections) resoundingly beat the “big boys” from ESPN, Yahoo, etc. Simply, they’re the best in the biz right now, even though they’re part-timers. Pretty amazing. I truly don’t know how they handle it with the demands of their day job. They’re multi-talented cats, sorta like Chad Ochocinco, who’s done fine work as a football player, soccer player, and actor (go see “American Reunion” – he has a cameo! And the movie is funny as hell, BTW).
In conclusion: Use Grey and Rudy’s projections/rankings to get the right players, and more often than not, this marginal value added to your draft/auction prep should help you finish high in the rankings each year.
Speaking of high… I’ll end by paraphrasing our friend Howard, from “Howard and Kumar Go To White Castle”: “The [fantasy baseball]universe tends to unfold as it should.” Especially as predicted by Rudy and Grey, I would add.
That’s all I got, r-ballers.
Mike D.
mike455m@yahoo.com
BTW… That’s the sloppiest blow job that I’ve ever given. But it is well-deserved. Jersey represent.
@Mike D., And that was one of the best blow jobs I’ve ever received. Thanks for the kind words, my man!
@Grey, LMAO, well played, sir!
@letsgobravos, longest post ever on razzball, i’ve seen a few in the past 4 years, but wow…
Damnit! This park is officially too big for Giancarlo! I’m renaming it MarlinCo. Someone tell Loria to move the damn fences in.
@letsgobravos, i thought they supposedly brought the fences in in the new stadium?? booooo….
lohse! lohse! lohse! i see a story coming lol!
those were all big pop ups for big mike … …no worries hell get plenty!
@chiasports, Ha…400+ foot pop ups, eh?
Motte on my team, gotta get out of this inning without any more runs!!
Going forward…. Porcello or Lohse?
@Chunk, Lohse…Nothing to do with this game…
@Grey, and we’re back in save territory!
thanks Grey
That’s what I’m talking about!
@Grey, I gots me some Motte. Angry Amish Warrior was nasty! Unfair what he did to Gianrafael for the final out… Rapuano’s K-zone was quite abstract tonight. He must have a hot date.
@3FingersBrown, Not as abstract as that thing in center field.
@Grey, what a nightmare. The girls in the pool almost make up for it.
Missed them…
@Grey, It looked like there’s a pool somewhere beyond the outfield wall, I didn’t see exactly where. ESPN came back from a commercial to a shot of a couple of bikini clad Miamians (?) frolicking in the pool.
Unlike the Rays, there was no sign of the team’s aquatic namesake in the water.
I love to fish, but I get seasick. Would be neat if you could fish in the Marlin-co fish tanks. I would pay top dollar to have a sushi chef carve up my catch in the aisle as I watch the game.
@Grey, keep two: Holland, Aceves, Peralta
Not Holland
Motte’s slider gives me a chubby!
Mmm… Slider…
@Grey, 91pmh slider, that is beyond sick. That’s sickly
@Grey, Dammit, now I know what I gotta have for breakfast. White Castle is open 24-7…………..BigFatterHippo
@BigFatHippo, Hehe
@BigFatHippo,
“Big O, you still confuse me………………”
NOW i believe you .
Motte is a beast! So that’s why i have him on 7 of my teams. Thanks again Grey!
@MeanMachine, No problem…
I was thinking about opening a cap brim bending business in Miami. I will also throw in free sticker removal as its clear that city does not have someone meeting their needs
@2 Cups 1 Braun, Well played…
Nothing good came out of that game.
Agreed
@Grey, Concurred
Is it wrong to be kinda pissed my team’s ballpark doesn’t have any aquariums?
@Cole, That thing in center might be.
@Grey, ?
14 team yahoo h2H standard scoring.
I’ve been offered Jennings for Bruce. I’m thinking it could help round out my team. I’m pretty set on power but think I lack speed. Should I do this in order to get more SB & runs?
Not sure I’m ready to lose the HR&RBI with the loss of Bruce. I think I might be able to rely on my current roster to be at least competitive in SB (especially by plugging Aybar in occasionally) while doing pretty well in runs/HR/RBI. What do you think?
Here’s my offense:
C: Doumit (J. Montero once he’s eligible)
1B: Berkman
2B: M. Aviles
3B: Longoria
SS: Hanley
OF: N. Cruz
OF: J. Bruce
OF: B. Boesch
UTIL: Kendrys
BN: Aybar
BN: Lind
BN: J. Montero
I wouldn’t do it…
@Grey, Thanks for the help. Bruce is gonna be a beast. I’ve never been this excited about hearing another man lost 15 pounds and looks good.
If I went through with it, I’d be giving up 15-20 HRs and 40-50 RBIs for 30-40 SB, however, I may be able to get some cheap speed off the wire.
@Jake, Ha
Is one game enough to worry about that ballpark and the effect on Stanton?
@Jim, Yeah…
?
@Cole, ignore this
AL Pennant Winner – Detroit Tigers
NL Pennant Winner – Pittsburgh Pirates
World Series Champion – Pittsburgh Pirates
AL ROY – Yoenis Cespedes
NL ROY – Zack Cozart
AL Cy Young – Eric Bedard
NL Cy Young – Justin Verlander
AL MVP – Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP – Andrew McCutchen
World Series MVP – Jose Tabata
…a guy can dream
@Buc Lover, ooops, got my CyY’s confused.
@Buc Lover, Yeah looks like you put Bedard by accident…
@Justin This, Yeah, that may be my only flaw.
@Buc Lover, I’m all for McCutch MVP though!
What do you think of Pavano against Baltimore for H2H?
@Steve, Looks like those O’s will be getting tan interior…
@Steve, Eh
I had frank frank and farnsworth on my team… needless to say. I’m looking to pick up some saves on a depleted waiver wire.
Would you drop Farnsworth for Crain right now (crain is the only vulture i see left) or wait until Farns hits the DL and gamble that crain is still there?
Also, clippard and adams on WW. but really would like potential saves and not just an elite MR.
@Mrobs, Hold for now…
And Capuano in Petco on Saturday?
@Steve, Seems like a good place to take a shot…No wait, I didn’t mean to say that, it’s just my mind it plays up, multiplies each matter, turns imagination into fact…
@Steve, Better…
@Steve, I will be there, rooting wholeheartedly against Capuano, so I’d say it’s a good bet. ???(?_?)???
@royce!, sorry, that was supposed to be a highly expressive emoticon…
Is Dom. Brown worth grabbing with my mid-1st round pick in an NL Only minor league draft, or do I go with a future ace pitcher? Has he run out of chances? What do you see from DB this year?
@elwood blues, No idea who else is available…
AL Pennant Winner: Los Angeles Angels of the Planet Earth in Orange County
NL Pennant Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
World Series Champion: Planet Earth Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in Orange County
AL Cy: David Price
NL Cy: Clayton Kershaw
AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez
NL MVP: Justin Upton
AL ROY: Matt Moore
NL ROY: Trevor Bauer
it’s just my bold predictions.
AL winner: LA Angels
NL winner: Arizona D’Backs
AL ROY: Yu Darvish
NL ROY: Trevor Bauer
AL C.Y.: C. J. Wilson or David Price
NL C.Y.: Cole Hamels
AL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL MVP: Justin Upton
World Champion: Tampa Bay Rays
(MVP: Desmond Jennings)
wow, it looks like coming true. poo ha ha
AL Pennant Winner
LA Angels
NL Pennant Winner
SF Giants
World Series Champs
LA Angels
AL ROY
Matt Moore
NL ROY
Drew Pomeranz
AL Cy Young
Felix Hernandez
NL Cy Young
Clayton Kershaw
AL MVP
Albert Pujols
NL MVP
Joey Votto