Comments on: 2011 RCL & Projection Review + Learnings

By: thekingadrock

thekingadrock — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 08:06:30 +0000

Great post thanks! I’m wondering how your draft strategy would change for SP in leagues using CG?

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 20:52:29 +0000

@Amish G, i’d stick w/ the 3 aces. you can always trade one during the season for a bat.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 20:50:52 +0000

@mic, tough call. give me a week to figure that one out (once i’ve done point shares). off the top of my head, i’d say McCann and then Andrus.

By: mic

mic — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 20:33:27 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, who has the best value in the 4th round of an NFBC draft: Andrus, Castro, Uggla, Hosmer, McCann, Sandoval…

By: mic

mic — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 19:49:25 +0000

@Bombo Rivera, yo for some reason i didn’t get an invite… i’ll e-mail you again…

By: WallyCleaver

WallyCleaver — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 18:01:31 +0000

Thanks. I was leaning that way and this pushes me that way.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 17:45:21 +0000

@WallyCleaver, I’d definitely keep Stubbs in that scenario as he’s set to leadoff which should help in Hits and Runs. He’s decent on HR and SB too. Wouldn’t worry too much about SB in this format but you can’t afford to completely punt it. Let Peralta go – he’s due for major regression. Neither Jones/Zobrist are great deals….i’d consider Jones before Zobrist given those rates.

By: Tony

Tony — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 17:28:34 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, wow ya half my guys i drafted last yr were on the bust team, awesome…. guys just fell flat on their faces.

By: WallyCleaver

WallyCleaver — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 17:07:30 +0000

Rudy, Great post. Last year I had a little of both from each list and ended up in the middle (figures).
Keeper question: I’m in a 10 team league 6×6 with OBP instead of average and hits as the 6th category. $260 budget. Struggling between Peralta at $2 (as my projected MI) or Stubbs at $2. I don’t have much other speed and what is likely to be there draft day in the OF is either more expensive (Bourn) or mediocre. I could get it from SS though with more of a financial commitment. Another option is to bag both and keep Adam Jones for $7 or Zobrist for $16 but they’ll probably go for that anyway. What do you think?

By: Amish G

Amish G — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 16:54:26 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, Thanks! Right now I’m tying 30% of my cap on the pitching I have, and plan on using another 10% (60/40 split)to fill out my staff, including Rp’s…liking the high K-MR’s route…guys like clippard/venters/abreau should go fairly cheap.
Wish I could get that number to 70/30, but I really like those 3 SP’s anchoring my staff. Do I let one of them go with mid tier SP as my #3? If so, who do you drop between Lee/Grienke/Weaver?
Thanks!

By: quimmy

quimmy — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 16:20:23 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, thank you sir.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 16:10:12 +0000

@quimmy, Well, neither is going to work as a keeper. Surprised someone didn’t have Castro as a keeper. I’d take Uggla.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 15:59:36 +0000

@The Vaporizers, Tough call. I just don’t think Gardner, Montero, or Stubbs are keeper-worthy. I’d roll the dice on Mesoraco next year and hold onto Hudson. He’s got the best chance of the group for being great in 2 years which is how you should be thinking for keepers.

By: quimmy

quimmy — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 15:57:12 +0000

@Rudy @ALL: Great Article!

quick question. i have fielder in rd 2, kemp in rd 3, jup in rd 4 and panda in rd 6 in my keeper league. i also have a 1st round pick in this scenario. the player pool is pretty thin though and my choices aren’t great. with my keepers in mind, would u rather have uggla or s.castro with my first pick? we use 6×6 (standard +OBP). thanks!

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 15:56:30 +0000

@chata, Ellsbury definitely surprised with the power last year. There’s always the promise that the high SB guys will provide HRs (think Crawford and Reyes) but they often max out at 15 or so. Ellsbury was a great buy-low candidate b/c he was young and his struggles were non-leg health related. Hope you were able to draft Ellsbury in a few leagues based on your hunch!

By: The Vaporizers

The Vaporizers — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 15:56:03 +0000

Hey Rudy, had a keeper question for you.

I’m in my 2nd year in a dynasty league where I took over for a last place team. I have made all sorts of deals and needed a little feedback on my last keeper. Its a 12 team league and most of the owners overvalue hitting when it comes to their keepers. We get to keep 8 major league players (as long as we want), one of which had to be a rookie last season and 8 minor league players Its 7×7 where we also include OPS and hits as well as Holds and Quality Starts.

The 2nd half of last year I went to all out rebuilding mode.

My minors are:
Harper, Trout, Machado, Mesoraco, Kipnis, Belt, Marisnick and Castellanos

My majors are:
Braun
Bruce
Ike Davis
Jimmy Rollins
Michael Young
Verlander
Beachy *Rookie from last year

And then I have room for one more. On my roster I also have Brett Gardner, Miguel Montero, and Daniel Hudson or I can easily acquire Drew Stubbs.

Who do you keep in this situation? With Gardner or Stubbs I’d be getting some speed obviously and I would have a 2nd OF that will be playing at the start of the season. It will be a couple months before Braun, Trout and probably Harper are playing regularly. But speed can always be found in a draft. Montero is easily the best catcher not being kept. I do have Mesoraco, but he isn’t going to get a full season of AB’s. Then I also have my crush, Daniel Hudson but that would leave me with keeping 3 pitchers which has been proven to not be the best strategy in this league.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 15:53:41 +0000

@Amish G, Moving to K/9 definitely reduces SP value. Racking up starts helps W/K while risking the two rate stats (ERA/WHIP). Now, the only benefit to marginal starts is Wins. This puts a lot of emphasis on SPs. Lee/Weaver/Greinke are an awesome first three.

Moore and Minor are solid prospects (I’m eh on Chapman). I can see those 2 as part of a rotation of 2 other SPs where you start 1-2 based on weekly matchups.

Agreed two more closers would be good. But I wouldn’t go crazy for saves as H2H leads to some fluky outcomes (where one closer beats three closers in Saves). If closers are overvalued, go with high-K MRs who could help on the three ratios and maybe surprise with a W.

By: chata

chata — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 15:47:58 +0000

@ Rudy :

enjoyed the article very much .

not being an expert , which requires being proficient at analyzing the full gamut of players , i must pick and choose my battles carefully .

would like to take this moment to recall a preseason discussion that i had with Grey , where i guaranteed that ellsbury would hit 3 times as many
home runs as brett gardner .

since it was , perhaps , the defining moment of my 2011 season , i just wish that his guy could have lived up to his end of the bargain .

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 15:40:26 +0000

@mc serch, I agree that the ‘best value’ players will likely regress and the ‘worst value’ players are likely to improve. I haven’t run the stats yet but my expectation is that I’m going to like Heyward and Choo (relative to ADP) more than Hanley and Crawford. Too much of Hanley/Crawford’s value tied to speed and not sure they’ll be healthy enough to steal a ton of bases (look at Reyes last year).

We’ll see on Risky Pitcher…what a humbling exercise

By: Amish G

Amish G — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 15:37:43 +0000

@Rudy. I’m in an ultra competitive 3 year keeper auction league (h2h). We’ve switched from total k’s in a 5×5 scoring sytem to K/9. Years past I loaded up on SP’s and closers to try and win k’s, wins and saves. Now, I’m rethinking rolling out 4 stud starters and try and draft 2 more closers. We have a 27 inning a week minimum. Here’s who I have and want to roll out:
Lee/Weaver/Grienke/m.Moore – bench Chapman/Minor
Motte – need two more closers (we have 2 RP slots and one P slot)
I like my chances of winning K/9, whip and era (maybe saves…what are your thoughts Rudy? Thanks!

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 15:37:09 +0000

@Rennan, Yup, the Grey vs. Rudy Challenge where we rostered the players with the biggest differences in draft value between our rankings. I’ll get to that soon. From what I remember, both our teams sucked and it made me feel stronger that ‘our two heads are better than one’ strategy in expert leagues has some validity.

By: Rennan

Rennan — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 15:32:26 +0000

Rudy,

Great post! I recall you and Grey did a post last year on teams you “drafted” based on your preferred method (don’t recall exactly the different methods or strategies). It would be nice to know how your teams compared based on last years numbers.

By: mc serch

mc serch — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 15:08:04 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, @Rudy Gamble, love the air quotes ’round Soler’s age in earlier comment….picking up on Tony’s comment, I think the “best value” team is also a pretty good list of players that are subject to being overvalued this coming year and the “worst value” team has many guys that could give tremendous value this year. With regard to the latter, what’s your take on Hanley, Crawford, Heyward and Choo? SS and OF seem real shallow and these guys could make a big difference methinks…bee tee dubs, we gonna see the Risky Pitcher’s post soon? Me love you long time!

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 14:44:18 +0000

@Benny, I think it’s likely 2-3 years before he sees the majors. I can’t think of any Cubans this young being able to start immediately in the majors (he’s “19″).

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 14:28:43 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, Just added. Still guts me how much Morneau hurt some of our expert teams and how Choo and Rios combined to torpedo my otherwise awesome AL-only squad.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 14:08:10 +0000

@Rudy Gamble, That reminds me…I’m going to add an all ‘bust’ team…that’ll probably be more gut-wrenching…

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 14:06:10 +0000

@Tony, Yeah, I know. It wasn’t a great fantasy year for me in mixed leagues so maybe there’s something to your theory

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 14:04:47 +0000

@Max, That’s a big step back in expected 2012 performance. I fyou want to compete this year, I wouldn’t make that trade. But if you were rebuilding, it’s an okay offer (Scherzer’s still young so tough to trade him)

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 14:02:55 +0000

@Bourne, As long as the 2B/SS is near their projected value and generally has been consistent health wise, I’m fine drafting a 2B and/or a SS in the first 5 rounds. I think I had H-Ram and Tulo in my pre-season top 5 last year. I think Cano is a 1st round pick at this point. I just caution against overdrafting a 2B/SS just b/c of their position.

By: Tony

Tony — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 12:57:28 +0000

Rudy- that best value squad makes me sick, i mean seriously look at that team! Besides Kemp and Verlander I hate almost all the players on there or wouldn’t have drafted them in a million years. I do like Asdrubal, but wow…. that teams a head scratcher. Do you or anyone think 2011 was a bit odd? With the guys that flopped, the guys that got hurt, it was a trainwreck….?