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As you probably know, we just went over the top 10 for 2011 fantasy baseball and today we give you… Hint: it’s in the title of the post. Oh, forget it. Here’s our top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball. And by our top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball, I mean mine. But our sounds more official. The second round is the hardest to peg. That’s just a fact, Black Jack Mulligan. There just ain’t a way around it. Next we’ll go over the top 20 catchers for 2011 fantasy baseball then top 20 1st basemen and so on and so forth as we do onto our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings as you would want them done onto you. In the top 10, I battled with maybe one or two spots, but this top 20 that I gave birth to was a true labor of love that required a C-section as I battled with myself on just about every spot. I’m pleased with what I settled on, but I could see an argument made to reshuffle some of these players. As always, tiers are mentioned and my 2011 fantasy baseball projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball:

11. Mark Teixeira – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Holliday.  I call this tier, “Most will disagree with this tier being above the next tier.”  When I sit down with my team on March 30th right before the season starts, I like to see a bunch of sure things from my early round selections. Is a healthy CarGo or Josh Hamilton more valuable and exciting than Mark Teixeira? Oh, hells yeah. There’s no doubt about that. Te(i)x also averages over a 150 games per season for his career. Last year, he had a terrible season and he was injured. He also hit 33 home runs with 113 Runs and 108 RBIs while only missing 4 games. He broke his toe at the end of August and still only missed 4 games all year. He had the 8th most home runs for all players last year, the 11th most RBIs, the 2nd most Runs IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES. (Caps for emphasis, not aesthetics.) This was in a down year for Tex. Well, I’ve said my peace. 2011 Projections: 105/35/115/.280

12. Matt Kemp – A total off year in 2010. That’s clear. He still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases. Sure, he hit .249, but he’s a career .285 hitter and his BABIP shows he was horribly unlucky last year. Yes, his Ks went up, but what happens when someone is unlucky? They press and start swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone. At 26-years-old for the majority of 2011, now is not the time to give up on Kemp. 2011 Projections: 100/30/105/.285/22

13. Matt Holliday – To me, Holliday is the Te(i)x of the outfield. There’s more exciting names, but I don’t really want exciting in the first two rounds of a draft. I want a steady performer I can count on to play every day and get his stats. 25+ home runs, 10 steals, .310+ average, 100+ RBIs, 90+ Runs — every year. That’s nice to bank on. 2011 Projections: 95/27/105/.310/10

14. Ryan Zimmerman – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Crawford. I call this tier, “I’m trying to avoid taking a 3rd baseman late. And there’s Crawford on the Sawx.” Sure, Pablo Sandoval looks like a beach ball but you want to rely on his bounce back? Mark Reynolds isn’t terrible, but he can hit .220 — in a good year. You want Chone Figgins? Rhetorical! Of course you don’t. Oh, I know! You want Beltre right after he signs a contract. Mmm-hmm. Follow me, young Razzball reader, and take a 3rd baseman in the 2nd round if you don’t leave the first with one. As for Zimmerman, 26 years old with 30 home run power, some sneaky speed and in the heart of a lineup that could surprise (a little, at least). 2011 Projections: 90/32/100/.285/5

15. Alex Rodriguez – Seems like without his cousin’s help, A-Rod can’t stay healthy for a full season. Still hasn’t hit below 30 home runs and he had 125 RBIs last year. Not a bad guy to have at 3rd base. Sandwiched into the Yankees lineup, I can probably drive in a 100 RBIs. In The Stadium They Built Next To The House That Ruth Built, I can probably hit 20 home runs. Is having, say, Ryan Howard and A-Rod as exciting as having Tulo and Josh Hamilton with your first two picks? Probably not, but it feels a lot safer. (A-Rod is right below Zimmerman even though his projections look better because of his age and recent health.) 2011 Projections: 90/32/110/.280/7

16. Ryan Howard – Last year, two guys hit 40 home runs.  8 players stole 40+ bases.  As I continually beat into your heads, the days of wine, roses and 40 home run hitters are gone.  If you want a guy that can steal 40 bases *cough* Carl Crawford *cough*, go for it but I want a guy who can hit 40+ home runs in the first round.   2011 Projections:  85/38/100/.265

17. Carl Crawford – It’s no secret that I’m coming from the place that if a player can hit 25+ home runs, he’s more valuable than a guy that can steal 25+ bases, but when a guy can hit 15+ home runs and steal 45+ bases, it’s valuable. There’s really no arguing with that.  I mean, you can argue with it, but you can also argue that the earth is flat, so, you know, you’re kinda crazy. Now go put on your potato sack and wander into traffic talking about the conspiracy of the rich.  2011 Projections: 100/16/110/.305/45

18. Carlos Gonzalez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Hamilton. I call this tier, “Some people are having an easy time drafting these guys, I’m not.” Last year was a dream season. He swung at 37% of pitches outside the strike zone, the league average is 29.3%. He hacked at 52.2% of total pitches, league average is 45.6%. He took nearly no walks. With a .384 BABIP, everything dropped in for him. Let’s add the last four sentences together. Everything he was hitting was falling in, so he just kept hacking away. Now what happens if the balls don’t drop in? It won’t be pretty. The only thing that’s stopping me from dropping him any further is his speed and home park. Though I still can’t see myself drafting CarGo this year. 2011 Projections: 90/24/95/.285/20

19. Robinson Cano – I kinda don’t mind Cano as much as some of the guys in this tier, but it’s hard for me to pay for his career year in 2010. The average will be high again, the power will be around 25 home runs, the steals will be nearly non-existent… It’s solid, but it’s that much better than Uggla? Yeah, I said it. 2011 Projections: 100/27/100/.310/3

20. Josh Hamilton – Ugh, someone get me out of this tier. I loved, loved, loved Hamilton last year when he was being drafted in the 6th round. I told everyone to draft him last year, but he’s not a 1st or 2nd rounder. My man just can’t stay healthy. Have you forgotten 2009 already? He only hit 10 home runs in 89 games. Ten home runs in 89 games is not good.  Because Hamilton really is crazy talented, I’m willing to look at him in the 2nd round while someone else is drafting him. 2011 Projections: 85/27/100/.305/7

  1. Mike from Jersey says:
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    Yesss lets keep it rolling. excellent work as usual

  2. Mike from Jersey says:
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    Also, im a red sox fan so id more than welcome it, but why do you project 110 rbi’s for carl crawford? seems a bit high for me. I think pedroia may end up hitting third.

  3. Steve says:
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    Nice little jump for Zimmerman – but hard to argue with, given the state of 3B this year. Foreseen by January 2010 Grey, funnily enough:

    http://razzball.com/top-100-for-2010-fantasy-baseball

    More good stuff Mr Albright. Plenty of talking points at the back end of the second round…

  4. Marqo says:
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    There is no way you can compare Ugglas Stats to Canos. And if you rank A-Rod below Zimmerman cuz of his health, u have to do the same with Utley and Cano.
    Also Crawford won’t get 110 RBIs…

  5. Joe from Pittsburgh says:
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    “Because Hamilton really is crazy talented, I’m willing to look at him in the 2nd round while someone else is drafting him.”

    Gold.

  6. Howard says:
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    @Gray, I did a 14/32 mock last night. First one of the year, am I on the right track?
    C – Miguel Olivo R14 P13
    C – Chris Iannetta R17 P2
    1B Miguel Cabrerra R1 P2
    2B Brandon Phillips R2 P13
    SS Jose Reyes R3 P2
    3B Adrien Beltre R4 P13
    OF Andrew Mcutchen R5 P2
    OF Delmon Young R7 P2
    OF Mike Stanton R10 P13
    OF Domonic Brown R11 P2
    OF Drew Stubbs R13 P2
    MI Sean Rodriguez R22 P13
    CI Mitch Moreland R21 P2
    UT Brett Wallace R23 P2
    SP Roy Oswalt R6 P13
    SP Clay Buccholz R8 P13
    SP Wandy Rodriguez R9 P2
    SP Jorge De la Rosa R12 P13
    SP Madison Bumgarner R15 P2
    SP Jhoulys Chacin R16 P13
    RP JJ Putz R18 P13
    RP Drew Storen R19 P2
    BN Dan Hudson R20 P13
    BN Chris Sale R24 P13
    BN Danny Valencia R25 P2
    BN Justin Smoak R26 P13
    BN David Freese R27 P2
    BN Tim Stauffer R28 P13
    BN Kila Ka… R29 P2
    BN Jason Hammel R30 P13
    BN James Mcdonald R31 P2
    BN Tom Gorzelanny R32 P13

  7. Black Beard says:
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    How would a keeper format affect your valuation of A-Rod? Better to look for the next big thing (Alvarez, Moose, etc.)…is there a next thing big thing?

  8. Ray says:
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    re: Kemp-do you see Lopes increasing his SB success rate and therefore his SB total, especially in his contract year? I could see 30-30.

  9. I’d argue that 2009 was the breakout for Cano and 2010 was proof it wasn’t a fluke. In 2009 he went 103/25/85/.320 and in 2010 he was 103/29/109/.319. The only real difference is in RBI and that was b/c last year he hit mostly 4th or 5th and the year before he it mostly 6th or 7th.

  10. Tony says:
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    this second round reminds me of last years second round in that its just a mess…. minus kinsler

    crawford, tex, holliday, and cano are the solids…. the rest have big question marks… they might be boring, but i’ll take stats i can count on over stats im hoping for….

  11. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    ray,i was thinking the same thing,but he will have to be sucsessfull early and often or his attempts will be down,grey-another masterpiece,premo stuff here

  12. Jason says:
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    My 10 team mock: (any comments appreciated)
    R1 P2 M. Cabrera
    R2 P9 M. Kemp
    R3 P2 R. Zimmerman
    R4 P9 J. Upton
    R5 P2 B Phillips
    R6 P9 D. Price
    R7 P2 K. Morales
    R8 P9 BJ Upton
    R9 P2 C. Billingsley
    R10 P9 M. Stanton
    R11 P2 A. Ramirez
    R12 P9 P. Hughes
    R13 P2 H. Kuroda
    R14 P9 S. Victorino
    R15 P2 D. Span
    R16 P9 C. Ruiz
    R17 P2 D. Aardsma
    R18 P9 K. Gregg
    R19 P2 M. Scherzer
    R20 P9 I. Desmond
    R21 P2 B. Morrow
    R22 P9 M. Thornton
    What do you think?
    (Sorry if the formatting is screwed up)

  13. Billy says:
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    Excellent point on Tex, i had to double take on his stats after the down year..

    trade help: cargo and posey for longoria and 1st rd pick

    thanks!!

  14. Penguin says:
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    I’d take the Longoria side in a heartbeat. Posey’s a catcher and CarGo’s coming off a career year. Assuming your first round doesn’t consist of studs like Crapolanco and Will Venable, I’d do that every day and twice on Sunday.

  15. SwaggerJackers says:
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    The difference between Cano’s career batting average of .309 and Uggla’s career batting average of .263 is significant.

  16. SwaggerJackers says:
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    Cano also helps soften the AVG drain of someone like Stanton or Dunn.

  17. Clyde Prompto says:
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    Howdy, Grey. I come for the rankings, I stay for the blurbs. The Cargo love I’ve seen in my mocks is out of control. He’s gone in the top 5 a couple of times, and he’s been the 1st OF off the board every time. I’m getting a distinct 2010 Justin Upton vibe from him. I personally would rank Adrian Gonzalez in the top 12, but it could be because I’m a Sox fan. I just think the move from Petco/Pads lineup to Fenway/Sox lineup is so huge that I’ve got visions of a 45-140 season dancing in my head.

  18. sean says:
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    @Grey: Appreciate the rankings/projections. I couldn’t agree more about the Cargo-Cano-Hamilton. Buying after a spike like that is a bad idea.

    @Tony: Right on. This game is hard enough without heaping on a ton of risk in the first few rounds.

  19. SwaggerJackers says:
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    @Tony:
    I’m not discounting the fact that Uggla will be sitting on the board a lot longer. I’m simply saying that in a bubble, there is a reason why Cano goes so high. I’ve snatched up Uggla in a couple mocks and might end up with him in a real one if he stays around that long.

  20. You’re kind of pessimistic to start out your sixth tier. I don’t even think we’re out of the third round yet!

  21. polczek5 says:
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    Grey, awesome as usual.

    The difference between your Fielder and Gonzalez projections is 1 Hr and 5 RBIs. Does that really constitute a difference of 8 picks? Do you see more upside from Fielder or potential downside from Gonzalez? I’m surprised Gonzalez is so low after you pushed power at the end of the first round. Why didn’t that carry over into the second?

  22. Sir Larry says:
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    Wonderful job, as per usual, Grey. I am finding it difficult to argue with much of your analysis – the “chill pills” you’re dishin’ out on guys like Cargo, JHam and Crawford make sense (but will anger the upside junkies out there).

    Quick question: Why no pitchers in your top 20? You had one last year (Lincecum).

  23. Alex says:
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    To beat the dead horse from the first round’s comments, why is A-Gon ranked 18 and two “tiers” lower while Howard is 8 and Fielder is 10? Your projections for the three of them are basically the same, but Fielder and Howard both have on and off years while Gonzalez has been consistent. Gonzalez is also moving to a hitter’s park from Petco, so his stats which have been on par with Howard and Fielder in the past should theoretically get a bump. So, assuming you agree with my last two premises, how can the two guys who are less reliable and have less reasons to be optimistic be ranked ten spots and two tiers above a guy who has been consistent for years and should see an increase in value? Particularly when your projections for the three are almost dead even. It seems like there is some undiscussed concern/dislike for A-Gon.

    Alex

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mike from Jersey: Thanks… Cause I have Crawford batting third. Would change his RBIs if he bats elsewhere.

    @Steve: Cool…

    @Howard: Team looks well balanced. Nothing really glaring out at me.

    @Black Beard: Alvarez is the next thing.

    @Ray: Yeah, definite possibility.

    @Long Time Listener: I don’t argue that Cano is for real, but he doesn’t have any speed and gives less power than Uggla. He’s exactly the same player he was last year when he was drafted in the fourth round.

  25. Tony says:
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    @Alex: Gonzalez had surgery to clean up the labrum in his non-throwing right shoulder on Oct. 20. He’s supposed to be ready for spring training. BUT…. who knows. I dont think you can say Howard has had an off year? 45 HR’s for 4 years straight? 31 last year? He was hurt for 17 games and that DL stint came during his traditionally high production month AUGUST. Fielder is the one who shows inconsistency. I’d rank them Howard, AGON, then fielder, and they’re all end of the first rounders to me…. Agon’s shoulder is just an unknown issue yet, therefore I wouldnt rank him so high so soon til we know.

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: Yup

    @AL: Thanks!

    @Jason: Team looks fine, but I’m shying away from Price this year.

    @Billy: I’d take Longoria but I don’t think you have to give that much.

    @Clyde: Cool…

    @Sean: Yup.

    @polczek: Because A-Gon is going to have to do it in a new environment and the other two aren’t.

    @Sir Larry: Lots of pitchers to go around, don’t think you need one in the first two rounds.

    @Alex: Concern is mentioned above. He’s going to be in a new environment.

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Alex: And of course the surgery.

  28. Jim the Gent says:
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    The other commenters make good points on A-Gon vs. Howard and Fielder, but I also wonder about the projections themselves for A-Gon. In particular, A-Gon has hit over .300 on the road each of the last three years (.308, .306, .315). Grey, is there a reason you don’t think that batting average will translate to a full season outside Petco? A projection of a .280 average seems very pessimistic to me, considering that A-Gon is a .284 career hitter and is moving into a much better hitting situation. Also, I realize predicting Runs and RBIs is a crap shoot, but the projections of A-Gon getting 100 Runs/110 RBIs seems a bit low to me, given that you’re projecting him to hit 37 HRs in a potent lineup. When Jason Bay hit 36 HRs in Boston two years ago, he had 119 ribbies, and that was with only a .267 average. As others have pointed out, it seems very unlikely that Crawford will have as many RBIs as Gonzalez, even if Crawford hits third and Gonzalez fourth (which also seems unlikely).

  29. Adrian Gonzales says:
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    I’m better than Tex. You’ll see Grey.

  30. sean says:
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    @Alex: @polczek5: A few responses to your AGone concerns:

    1. Grey’s projections are in line with his three-year averages
    (93/36/106/.285/0)

    2. Petco to Fenway, by park factor, is not that great an offensive leap for an individual player. Runs are heavily depressed in Petco compared to Fenway (.88 versus 1.08) but HRs are almost identically depressed (.86 v. .87)

    3. Yes, I know he is moving to a better lineup, perhaps the most productive lineup in baseball, but remember what that did last season for a guy like Curtis Granderson when he put up 76/24/67/.247/12 for the Yanks last year compared to his three-year average of 93/25/68/.256/15

    4. Basically, what I’m saying is that once players develop consistent production levels, a change of scenery doesn’t always means a change in production. Is it possible that at the end of the year AGone beats his projection by 15 R/RBI for being in a better lineup? Sure, but bank on the three year average with some room for upside and you won’t be disappointed. You can project 120/45/150, but then your name would be Bill James and Chris Davis would cry.

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jim the Gent: I’m not willing to just say A-Gon is exactly what he was on the road he will be at home. And 110 RBIs and 120 RBIs is a small difference. Let’s see him win the MVP before we give him MVP numbers.

  32. sean says:
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    @sean: @Alex: @Jim the Gent:

    Also, lets PEDS remind you that AL East pitching is a lot different than NL West pitching. AND remember that AGone is a soft-spoken, laid back, San Diego guy. That may not mesh well with the brash, in-your-face style of the Boston media, fans, and general population. Wait til he pulls out of his first 3-for-40 before you hand him the MVP.

  33. polczek5 says:
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    @Grey: Makes sense on A-Gon. The difference in the media from San Diego to Boston alone probably warrants some caution.

    A more general question on the top 20. Given the difficulty in ranking players expected to go in the second round, how much of your rankings reflect first-second round pairings? Or do you consider that separately? (By the way, I hope there’s a pairings post later in year.)

  34. Frank Rizzo says:
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    I know Cano may have just had his career year but there will still be men on base for him and the right field wall is still shorter than my kid’s t-ball field. I can’t take Utley and his injury issues over Cano now. I probably won’t have either this high though. This is the year to take itty-bitty Pedroia since his stock has dropped.

    Also, Kemp. No thanks that high. I’ll take J-Upside later and hope this is the year it all hits.

    I’m interested to see where J-Upside lands in the top 100. Looking forward to pitching too. Looking forward to seeing where guys flipping from AL to NL will land Grey……most notably Greinke and Garza. I could potentially see both of these guys as my top 2 pitchers taken in 2011, if I wait on pitching of course.

  35. Matt Crapps says:
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    @sean:

    No, I’m positively certain that when A-Gonz and Car-Craw have their first mini-slump the Boston sports media will remain cool and collected and embrace them with encouragement.

  36. TJ says:
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    I have four of my keepers set so far:
    Cargo for 2 more years
    Votto for 3 more years
    Hanley for 1 more year
    Jhoulys Chacin for 5 more years

    Trying to make a deal to get my fifth keeper.
    Am I better off going after a known quantity like Shin Soo Choo (5 years), or gambling on some upside like Pedro Alvarez (also 5 years) or Drew Stubbs (5 years)?

  37. vinko says:
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    How do you evaluate young pitchers that have had a substantial jump in innings pitched from season to season?

  38. Eddy says:
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    ****Razzball Mock Draft open****

    This thursday at 7pm EST.

    Password is sonavabench.

  39. Tony says:
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    @Eddy: where you doing those at eddy? i might just have to jump in one, god i hate my first one of the season to be with razzers, but then again that might be a good thing… MDC?

  40. Cain Fan says:
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    Grey, sorry I am a day late on this, but I always wonder why people have Howard ranked so much higher than Adam Dunn. Aren’t they basically clones of each other, yes Dunn is a little older and last yr was on a crappy team but still. Wouldn’t you expect Dunn to have a monster yr with Chicago? Especially going with your 40 HR rule, just curious on your thoughts. My league also goes by OBP so maybe I am biased.

  41. Kid 'n Play says:
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    @TJ: Choo. Too much risk in the others.

  42. mic says:
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    @polczek5: NLwest pitching>ALeast pitching… just the Giants pitching staff alone, LA has a very good staff, Ubaldo, Latos, not so much ARI… But maybe because the hitting in the division is average at best?

    @Eddy: dammit i work again…

  43. Eddy says:
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    @Tony:

    Yup, MDC. And think of it as trial by fire :P
    @mic:

    Do you always work Thursday nights or is it sporadic?

  44. Terrence Mann says:
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    Good points about Tex and Kemp. I may have to move Kemp up my list a bit after considering your reasoning.

    Looking very much forward to your rankings after the 20 spot. That’s where it gets hairy. JUpside, Pedroia, Soo Choo, Beltre, Cruz, Bautista, Dunn, Stanton….where the hell should all these guys be ranked?

  45. Cole says:
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    I think A-Gon knocks in 240 runs, minimum, and has a 3 way with Erin Andrews and Becky from my old job on the infield.

  46. sean says:
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    @Cain Fan: Dunn’s career high in RBI is 105. Howard has topped 140 twice in the last three seasons. Dunn is a career .250 hitter compared to Howard’s .279. Even though they are the same age, Dunn has more miles on the tires because of his time in the OF and is a greater injury risk. The list goes on…

  47. polczek5 says:
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    @mic: I think you mean to reply to @sean. I agree that NL West pitching is better than the AL East.

  48. Swagger Jackers says:
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    @Eddy: I’m in Eddy. Better watch up, Imma switch my style up.

  49. Dingo says:
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    Great to see this feature already starting for this coming season! It’s sad how excited I already am for fantasy baseball 2011.

    Got any plans for your birthday next week, Grey?

  50. Tony says:
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    @Dingo: did someone mark grey’s birthday in their calendar? lol

    @sean: good points sean, that many RBIS is alot…. and we’ve also watched howard CARRY teams in august/sept, if you’re playing H2H….

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @polczek5: Who you take in the first round makes all the difference with who you take in the 2nd round.

    @TJ: Choo, but could change after this season. Alvarez if you want risk/upside.

    @vinko: You stay away from them if you can.

    @Cain Fan: What Sean said.
    @Terrence Mann: It’ll all be revealed.

    @Dingo: No plans yet.

    @Tony: Ha!

  52. Seph says:
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    Mark Reynolds or Aramis Ramirez in ’11?

  53. Steve says:
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    That didn’t take long – Hamilton is in hospital with pneumonia.

    @Grey: All things being equal (and ideal), what are you hoping to leave the first two rounds with – 1B and 3B?

  54. Dracula says:
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    So, I kinda asked this yesterday, but with CarGo all the way down at 19th, how does it not make sense to trade him and Andrus away for McCutchen and Reyes? I’m guessing you must be high on Andrus or low on Reyes…

  55. Rabbit says:
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    Grey, does your ranking of Kemp factor in his breakup with Rihanna? Like A-Gon, he’s going to have to be doing it in a new environment and that could affect his numbers.

  56. tom thumb says:
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    Grey,
    Do you believe at all in avoiding notorious slow starters like Tex and Tulo? I would rather draft someone else and then trade for them. This of course assumes that their owners don’t believe in production trends but I won my league last year on buying low and selling my big names like Howard and Bay on name value

  57. Tony says:
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    @tom thumb: hey man thats all good but if you have leaguemates that dont know tex sucks for 2-3 months then puts up all his stats you might wanna get in another league. Those guys are great targets to move a fast starter for…. but be careful, last year i moved cargo/strasburg for KEMP in my RCL, stras of course had a few brilliant games then blew his arm, but cargo NEVER slowed and KEMP was a POS…. make sure its a KNOWN trend.

  58. Dom says:
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    Need help in keepers for AL-Only League, 10 teams, 4 x 4 (BA, HR, RBI, SB, W, S, WHIP, ERA), Auction ($275). Can keep up to 15

    Definite (Total of 9 at $135) :
    Morneau, Justin: $30
    Beltre, Adrian: $21
    Cabrera, Asdrubal: $6
    Cruz, Nelson: $27
    Upton, B.J.: $19
    Choo, Shin-Soo: $8
    Hellickson, Jeremy: $8
    Buchholz, Clay: $6
    Gonzalez, Gio: $ 1

    Questions (in order of how I like them):
    Rodriguez, Sean: $10
    LaPorta, Matt: $10
    Encarnacion, Edwin: $9
    Gordon, Alex : $11
    Santana, Ervin: $20

    Not likely, but…
    Pettitte, Andy: $11
    Porcello, Rick: $8
    Hochevar, Luke: $4

    My thought is to just keep those 9 and see what’s in the auction, as I should be able to pick any of those guys up for around the same price. My strategy for pitching is to pick up one closer and one good sp, then fill in the rest with solid relief pitchers, spending the rest on hitting

  59. SkiWizard says:
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    @Tony: That’s a good point, Tony. I guess it works out better on the other end. I moved guys like Alex Rios, Justin Morneau, etc. and got guys like Wright in return. There are still some pretty astute league mates of mine who don’t buy that Tex will be slow every year, or that he will heat up every year. And they have great teams, make great moves, but just don’t believe all trends. Howard last year is a great example. As someone else mentioned, his DL stint was in August where he usually gets hot but he never did really turn it on last year. When Tex is still hitting sub .200 heading towards June, even smart owners sometimes get nervous. That being said, I drafted Tulo last year and just played Andrus while he was cold/hurt. Obviously it turned out great. Just a thought I was throwing out there

  60. Tom Thumb says:
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    @Tony: That’s a good point, Tony. I guess it works out better on the other end. I moved guys like Alex Rios, Justin Morneau, etc. and got guys like Wright in return. There are still some pretty astute league mates of mine who don’t buy that Tex will be slow every year, or that he will heat up every year. And they have great teams, make great moves, but just don’t believe all trends. Howard last year is a great example. As someone else mentioned, his DL stint was in August where he usually gets hot but he never did really turn it on last year. When Tex is still hitting sub .200 heading towards June, even smart owners sometimes get nervous. That being said, I drafted Tulo last year and just played Andrus while he was cold/hurt. Obviously it turned out great. Just a thought I was throwing out there

  61. Tom Thumb says:
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    @Tom Thumb: Sorry for the double post. Roommates never log out :)

  62. Eddy says:
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    @Swagger Jackers:

    I’ll be zigging while you’re zagging ;)

  63. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Seph: 3rd basemen rankings are right around the corner.

    @Steve: Yup, 3rd baseman and 1st baseman.

    @Dracula: Sorry maybe I got the letter wrong but I want the CarGo side.

    @Rabbit: Of course!

    @Tom Thumb: I don’t avoid slow starters.

    @Dom: I like the nine you’re keeping.

  64. scott says:
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    grey, i get to keep 8 guys. there is no penalty for keeping anyone, can keep for as long as i want. roto league, regular stats + obp
    starters are all positions & 2 dh plus 6 pitchers

    I’m keeping a-gone, hanley, utley, hamilton, j upton, hamels

    Need to pick 2 of these
    dunn
    c young OF
    billingsley
    scherzer
    hellickson
    lind
    pence
    rasmus

    Thoughts?

    Who would you keep from this group: kinsler, granderson, morneau, rios

  65. mic says:
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    @polczek5: my bad…

    @eddy: i work a two week schedule… don’t worry about scheduling i’ll be in there like swim wear when i’m off…

  66. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @scott: Who are these in the 2nd group with Kinsler and Grandy? Two from the first group only? Pence, Rasmus…

  67. scott says:
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    sorry, i knew that wasnt gonna be clear. its 2 different teams

    Need to pick 2 of these
    dunn
    c young OF
    billingsley
    scherzer
    hellickson
    lind
    pence
    rasmus

    for the second team, need to pick one of these guys as my last keeper

    kinsler, granderson, morneau, rios

  68. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @scott: Pence, Rasmus…. Kinsler…

  69. Dingo says:
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    @Tony: It’s easy enough to remember. Mine’s the same day.

  70. Tony says:
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    @SkiWizard: @Tom Thumb: Einhorn is Finkel, FINKEL IS EINHORN!!! and that was me tht pointed out howards august DL stint and thats USUALLY one of his hottest times…

    As for tex, the guy is 30 now, but in that stadium and that line up, he’s going to get his, it just sucks you have to deal with his April, May, and now possibly deep into JUNE slumping? I like more even production. I play roto for Razzball, but my long time league is H2H, so you have to defly weigh that into consideration. In my H2H league the guys that take TULO and TEX, they KNOW they slump and sit tight…. no tricking them LOL

  71. Tony says:
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    @Dingo: haha i use to have a GF with the same birthday as another GF…. very similar. LOL jk man.

  72. Hardcore Midget says:
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    Two part question.

    1- Is it a bad thing to have three of my five keepers be Rockies if they are Cargo (for two years), Tulo (five years) and Chacin (five years)? Votto would be my fourth keeper, and the SP below my fifth.

    2- Buchholz or Price in a K/9 keeper league (three years each)?

    Looking to make a trade which could bring me back Tulo and Price/Buchholz in return.

  73. Tony says:
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    @Hardcore Midget: so whats your trade? tulo/price/bucholz in return? something for them? some of them?

  74. Melissa says:
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    Grey- My keepers(round): Both Uptons(8,12), Heyward (20),
    Alvarez (25). Pretty weak, I know, but the draft value isn’t bad. I
    have 2 questions: 1) Alvarez: would you trust him as your starting
    3B, or should I target another? 2) Given my keepers, should I
    completely ignore OF in the early-going the draft, and look for
    late-round bargains? I need to personally rank Crawford and CarGo
    (non-keepers) below the likes of Cano, Agonz, and Zimm? Right?
    Thanks.

  75. SephMeier says:
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    Need help with my keeper league: which one player should i
    keep? ricky romero/aramis ramirez/ian desmond/mark
    reynolds

  76. Tony says:
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    @SephMeier: whats the ramifications? rounds? salaries? etc?….. overall value wise…. reynolds im gonna say….

  77. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Melissa: I’d trust Alvarez. Yes, Ignore outfield for a while, ranking them below those other guys.

    @SephMeier: Reynolds

  78. Brede says:
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    Who do you think is the better pick for a long-term keeper league…Grandy, Adam Jones, Quentin, Garza, Chacin, or Morrow. Yea I don’t like my choices either

  79. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Do you think we see a bounce back from Grandy this year? He was pretty terrible last year, I can attest to that.

  80. SephMeier says:
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    @Tony and @Grey : Thank you!
    No ramifications tony, basically just need to keep the best player!

    Looking forward to tomorrows rankings!

  81. pjtres says:
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    grey…what do you expect from brett wallace this year?
    also, does tanner scheppers have a spot in the rangers bullpen, or na?

  82. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @pjtres: re: Tanners — Not out of Spring Training. re: Wallace — Not a whole lot.

  83. Tom Thumb says:
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    @Grey: @GopherDay: Grandy started to hit lefties pretty well at the end of the year. I believe he even had a 2-HR game against lefty pitching. I would wait and see in ST but I think we could see him in the .275 range with solid counting stats… (Granted it was end-of-the-season pitching but he worked with the Yanks coaches so at least there is conceivably some rationale behind it)

  84. potus says:
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    Everyone bored of mocks??? Good one here– open to any and all criticisms……I know you guys like isms so here you go from slot 2 in a 12 teamer:

    1 Fat Albert
    2 Holliday
    3 Lincecum (late to the buzzer and auto drafted)
    4 Bautista
    5 Werth
    6 BJ Upton
    7 Ellsbury
    8 Kelly Johnson
    9 Corey ‘I wear my sunglasses’ Hart
    10 Miguel Montero
    11 Chris Young
    12 Timmy Hudson
    13 Cuddyer (buzzer beater miss again)
    14 Jhouyls Chacin
    15 Juan Uribe
    16 F Cordero
    17 Kurt ‘Black Rain’ Suzuki
    18 CJ Wilson
    19 Joe ‘Hotdog’ Nathan
    20 Pelfrey
    21 Kevin Gregg
    22 Clayton Richard
    23 Bartlett

    How many 80′s song references can you find in that group?
    Good luck in all leagues!
    Your fearless leader-
    POTUS

  85. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tom Thumb: Gotcha…

    @potus: 3, 4 and 5th picks are sloppy then Cuddyer, Uribe and Suzuki are messy too.

  86. Tony says:
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    @potus: Your 4 thru basically the rest of your draft (i wanted to say 12) make me want to puke…. bautista, werth, j-up, ells, and Kelly Johnson in the 9th! I mean he was sweet when i took him in the 25th last year, but 9th!? wow…. no offense but try again man, i haven’t even done a mock, but a bunch of snow a nonwork day and alot of booze tell me something stinks!

  87. Tony says:
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    seriously guys we have to be real, Bautista shouldn’t even be taken by a razzer this year, AT LEAST until the what 8th round? which by then he wont be there…. maybe i’m drinking too much on a tuesday? butttt…. that dude is NO 3rd rounder…. lets put it this way, i took joey votto in the 3rd last year, would i even remotely consider bautista comparable?

    phewwww…. back to online poker.

  88. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Are the comments closed on Stephen’s Minor League Rundown for any specific reason?

  89. JoeC says:
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    @GopherDay: Probably so there’s not a thousand and one “Where are the [site decorum] Catcher rankings?!” comments

  90. JoeC says:
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    Yahoo’s Mock Draft Top 20… for comparison’s sake. Grey’s rankings in parentheses next to player name.

    1. Hanley Ramirez (3) – Position scarcity
    2. Albert Pujols (2) – Duh
    3. Miguel Cabrera (1) – McLovin’
    4. Troy Tulowitzki (9) – Position scarcity & man-love
    5. Carlos Gonzalez (19) – “…will be one of virtual baseball’s most reliable multi-cat bats” (Wha?? “Most reliable” after one year’s breakout performance? Oooookay!)
    6. Joey Votto (5) – “Reduce groundballs and he flirts with 50 bombs”
    7. Evan Longoria (4) – “I think we’ve already started to take Longoria for granted.”
    8. Robinson Cano (20) – “Cano has established himself as a solid .300/30/100/100 candidate.”
    9. Adrian Gonzalez (18) – “…crooked numbers are on the way”
    10. Ryan Braun (6) – “If Braun stays healthy… we could see an MVP run”
    11. David Wright (7) – “…he’s a 25-15 guy… with upside from there”
    12. Chase Utley (12) – “…he’s at his power peak, age-wise”
    13. Carl Crawford (11) – “…Francona was next to last in stolen base attempts in 2010, but was fifth in 2009 when runners were healthy”
    14. Mark Teixeira (13) – “It was a terrible year mostly driven by career-worst BABIP…”
    15. Alex Rodriguez (17) – “His stats have fallen in each of the last three years…”
    16. Josh Hamilton (>20) – “He’s only given us one full season out of four…”
    17. Ryan Howard (8) – “Before last season, Howard had run off four straight campaigns with at least 40 home runs and 136 RBIs.”
    18. Matt Kemp (14) – “If ever there was a sub-.250 batting average worth dismissing, it’s Kemp’s .249 mark from last season.”
    19. Ryan Zimmerman (16) – “…the 26-year-old appears to be on the precipice of a career year”
    20. Prince Fielder (10) – “Still only 26, Fielder should rebound in a major way.”

    http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Fantasy-Baseball-2011-Mock-Draft-Round-1?urn=fantasy-305495

  91. JoeC says:
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    And the latest comment on that Yahoo mock draft (and no, this isn’t me!):

    “Usually you guys are solid with your rankings, but these are off. I think Razzball’s early rankings are much better.”

  92. Eddy says:
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    @JoeC:

    Any idea when the Yahoo mag comes out?

  93. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: My screw up, I fixed it.

    @JoeC: Ha!

    @Eddy: Supposedly they were mailing me the magazine yesterday, so I’m assuming any day now it’ll be on newsstands.

  94. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    Gotcha, thanks.

    ****One spot left in the mock draft****

    Tomorrow at 7pm EST!

    Password is sonavabench

  95. GopherDay says:
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    @Eddy: It was full, then I dropped out because I’m busy that night. I need to not have a life! :P

  96. Eddy says:
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    @GopherDay:

    Cmon now! I think the only way I’m ever going to get ahold of you is if we’re in an RCL together.

    Then again, you may catch on to my draft strategy what with all these mocks we do.

    This presents an interesting dilemma.

    ;P

  97. GopherDay says:
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    @Eddy: Ha! Well I’m not even sure if I’m going to join an RCL this year. I’m already heavily involved in 4 leagues that all play on Yahoo, and I don’t know if I’ll have time to check ESPN as well. We’ll see though…

  98. Mike from Jersey says:
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    Where’s the next set of rankings?!

  99. @JoeC:

    “…Francona was next to last in stolen base attempts in 2010, but was fifth in 2009 when runners were healthy”

    so what this statistic is basically saying is that ellsbury played in 09 but not in 10. i love how they attribute this to francona somehow.

  100. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Just curious, does Rudy have any input into your rankings/projections, or are you flying solo?

  101. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Solo… He does Point Shares.

  102. LMack says:
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    I promise to buy a daiquiri once I get my pay-pal sorted out Grey. I appreciate all the work.

    If by some cruel twist of fate, I miss Longoria, Wright, A-Rod, Zimmerman and Youk at 3B, do I punt until Pedro Alvarez?

  103. so i’m supposed to be flying into boston tonight. in THEORY i should be available for the mock at 7pm thursday night. if i wind up stuck in my layover city (and i’m so glad i picked vegas right now), you guys may get a big dose of the oddities contained within my prerank set in all their peculiar glory as it flies across the mock as an unmanned drone dropping bombs at random. hint: if you think i’ve been drafting bautista too early when i’m ONline…

    at least it won’t be the same old MDC preranks though. so you won’t know what to expect until it happens.

    right now it says ON TIME on the website though so i expect totally smooth sailing

  104. the grey hey kid says:
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    grey, long time (silent) reader…2 questions:

    1. in a keeper league, who would you rather own for this year and the long haul….kemp or stanton?

    2. also, could you rank these guys in a keeper? kemp, j-up, jose reyes, cliff lee

    thanks

  105. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @LMack: No problem… Yeah, Alvarez is a good option.

    @the grey hey kid: Kemp… Upton, Kemp, Reyes….

  106. JoeC says:
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    @wily mo: Yeah, the comments from the Yahoo drafters were full of idiotic statements like that.

    To wit, Ellsbury had nearly 1/2 of the Red Sox stolen base attempts in 2009 (82 of 165). In 2010, Ellsbury only attempted 8 steals and, unsurprisingly, the Red Sox’s total attempted steals crashed by about 50 percent, to 85.

    Rocket science, this is!

  107. Snakes says:
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    I can can keep 4 of these dudes.
    Cargo, Brian roberts, hunter pence, carlos santana, david price, brian wilson. Whatya think?

  108. @Grey – H2H league with OPS. My preferred strategy is to punt steals. Any significant adjustments to your top 20 with this in mind?

  109. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Snakes: CarGo, Pence, Santana and Price…

    @Jonesy: Yeah, lose Crawford and Kemp and bump up Cano.

    *****Take followups to the newest post.*****

  110. PSMOOTH says:
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    Grey:

    Would you Keep Mcann or Dominic Brown? Serious Question.

    My other keepers are TEX, Utley, LEE, and CARGO

  111. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @PSMOOTH: McCann…

    *****Take followups to the newest post.*****

  112. Jason says:
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    Looks like you swapped Gonzo and Crawford. Why?

  113. @NYLivinCAMind says:
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    Hey buddy,

    Quick confirmation: H2H Keeper League

    Trade: Matt Holliday (if kept will lose 1st rd pick) and 9th rd pick ( #101)

    For : Matt Kemp (lose 14th rd pick)

  114. LVR says:
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    5×5 rotisserie league. 3 keepers for 2 years. Who to keep?

    Ichiro
    Hamels
    Greinke
    Price

  115. LVR says:
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    Oops- try 2 keepers 3 years

    Ichiro
    Hamels
    Greinke
    Price

Comments are closed.