In our ongoing schmohawk series where I breakdown overrated players for 2011 fantasy baseball, I’ve gone into depth on some of these guys. I decided to also take a lookie-loo at ESPN and Yahoo’s top 100 and some players that I thought were overrated. If you click on a player’s name, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these schmohawks. Anyway, here’s some overrated players for 2011 fantasy baseball:
Robinson Cano – ESPN: ADP, 6. I’m actually a fan of Cano if you’re getting him at the end of the 2nd round. That’s exactly his value. That was his value last year when you were getting him in the 4th to 5th round and that’s his value this year. At 6 overall, you’re overpaying. BTW, if I were in any way proficient in Photoshop, I’d do a graph that showed player’s actual value and how that remains linear while perception changes. I think that’s kinda the secret to fantasy. Once you know a player’s actual value you just dance through the raindrops of other people’s perception. School’s out, Alice Cooper!
Carlos Gonzalez – ESPN: 9; Yahoo: 8. There are a bunch of things about CarGo that make me wary, which makes it surprising to me that no one else seems to have any issue with him. On top of the things mentioned in the CarGo overrated post, he’s also a bumps-and-bruises, miss-a-few-days-here-and-there type guy. Those day-to-day things can turn into more.
Jose Bautista – ESPN and Yahoo: 36. I told everyone to draft Mark Reynolds when he was going around 200 in the 2009 preseason. Then, in 2010, he shot up to the 2nd and 3rd round last year and I told you he was overrated. He bombed and is now being drafted in 10th to 12th rounds. What happened in 2010 with Reynolds is what’s happening right now with Bautista. Next year, I’ll probably tell you to draft Bautista again. Value vs. perception. Okay, putting away my harp.
Rickie Weeks – Yahoo: 42. If you jumped out of a DeLorean and told me Weeks is being drafted around 120th in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised, but would wonder why fantasy baseball average draft positions is what you decided to focus on with the ability to time travel.
Billy Butler – Yahoo: 58. His Rubenesque physique probably has some people thinking he’s going to hit 25 homers. This Biggie Smalls isn’t even a lock for 20 homers. I get it if you’re into BBW, but I’d lay off the moobs in the 5th round.
David Price – Yahoo: 66. Price is one of those guys that I’m avoiding that I’m not entirely convinced I’m doing right by avoiding him, but his xFIP last year of 3.99 has me spooked. Then throw in his division and I’ll let someone else draft him this year. I think we’ll see each other again in 2012.
Martin Prado – ESPN and Yahoo: 79. I think this ranking is crackers. This is one of those cases like Ichiro where I think people are just overrating batting average. There’s two things you can get a good handle on, speed and power. Batting average, Runs and RBIs are fickle. Runs and RBIs you can kinda figure by ABs, lineup and lineup position. Figuring out batting average is a fool’s errand, if I’m using that cliche correctly.