In our ongoing schmohawk series where I breakdown overrated players for 2011 fantasy baseball, I’ve gone into depth on some of these guys. I decided to also take a lookie-loo at ESPN and Yahoo’s top 100 and some players that I thought were overrated. If you click on a player’s name, you’ll see whole posts dedicated to these schmohawks. Anyway, here’s some overrated players for 2011 fantasy baseball:
Robinson Cano – ESPN: ADP, 6. I’m actually a fan of Cano if you’re getting him at the end of the 2nd round. That’s exactly his value. That was his value last year when you were getting him in the 4th to 5th round and that’s his value this year. At 6 overall, you’re overpaying. BTW, if I were in any way proficient in Photoshop, I’d do a graph that showed player’s actual value and how that remains linear while perception changes. I think that’s kinda the secret to fantasy. Once you know a player’s actual value you just dance through the raindrops of other people’s perception. School’s out, Alice Cooper!
Carlos Gonzalez – ESPN: 9; Yahoo: 8. There are a bunch of things about CarGo that make me wary, which makes it surprising to me that no one else seems to have any issue with him. On top of the things mentioned in the CarGo overrated post, he’s also a bumps-and-bruises, miss-a-few-days-here-and-there type guy. Those day-to-day things can turn into more.
Jose Bautista – ESPN and Yahoo: 36. I told everyone to draft Mark Reynolds when he was going around 200 in the 2009 preseason. Then, in 2010, he shot up to the 2nd and 3rd round last year and I told you he was overrated. He bombed and is now being drafted in 10th to 12th rounds. What happened in 2010 with Reynolds is what’s happening right now with Bautista. Next year, I’ll probably tell you to draft Bautista again. Value vs. perception. Okay, putting away my harp.
Rickie Weeks – Yahoo: 42. If you jumped out of a DeLorean and told me Weeks is being drafted around 120th in 2012, I wouldn’t be surprised, but would wonder why fantasy baseball average draft positions is what you decided to focus on with the ability to time travel.
Andre Ethier – Yahoo: 48. I’ve actually felt like Ethier has been overrated every year since he broke out. Not entirely sure why, but there ya go.
Billy Butler – Yahoo: 58. His Rubenesque physique probably has some people thinking he’s going to hit 25 homers. This Biggie Smalls isn’t even a lock for 20 homers. I get it if you’re into BBW, but I’d lay off the moobs in the 5th round.
David Price – Yahoo: 66. Price is one of those guys that I’m avoiding that I’m not entirely convinced I’m doing right by avoiding him, but his xFIP last year of 3.99 has me spooked. Then throw in his division and I’ll let someone else draft him this year. I think we’ll see each other again in 2012.
Martin Prado – ESPN and Yahoo: 79. I think this ranking is crackers. This is one of those cases like Ichiro where I think people are just overrating batting average. There’s two things you can get a good handle on, speed and power. Batting average, Runs and RBIs are fickle. Runs and RBIs you can kinda figure by ABs, lineup and lineup position. Figuring out batting average is a fool’s errand, if I’m using that cliche correctly.
CarGo makes you wary, and not weary, I believe, unless you’re just tired from spreading the gospel about his true value.
Hey Grey,
What do you think of my team (7×7 H2H league)? Any advice, input, etc. is welcomed. Thanks in advance and keep up the great work!
C) Jarrod Saltalamachia
1B) Justin Smoak
2B) Brandon Phillips
3B) Evan Longoria
SS) Hanley Ramirez
OF) Andrew McCutchen
OF) Chris Young
OF) Ichiro Suzuki
UTIL) Manny Ramirez
UTIL) Mark Reynolds
BN) Ryan Raburn
BN) Brandon Allen
BN) Andres Torres
SP) Ubaldo Jimenez
SP) Shaun Marcum
SP) Daniel Hudson
SP) Gio Gonzalez
SP) Edwin Jackson
RP) Joakim Soria
RP) Jose Valverde
P) Craig Kimbrel
P) Hong-Chih Kuo
BN) Ian Kennedy
BN) Bud Norris
BN) Phil Coke
Different league formats is what makes reading these things tough. I play 6×6 with XBH. and guys like Ethier, Butler and Prado have some solid value. In 5×5, Butler is just a fat James Loney on a good year…………..My fantasy baseball sixth sense told me to stay away from Cargo, thanks for proving my mystical work.
hah love the articles keep up the good work
So who’s the most underrated overrated player?
8 team nl only roto league 2nd pick
C ianetta 23
1b huff 8
2b walker 9
3b alvarez 6
ss hanley 1
of holliday 2
of pence 4
of krispie 7
util torres 14
util robot jones 19
bn uribe 15 alex gonzalez 18
sp kershaw 3
sp gallardo 5
rp storen 10
rp lyon 11
p d hudson 12
p volquez 15
p chapman 13
p kennedy 17
bn jansen 22
bn adams 21
bn j santana 20
thole over ianetta ? do u think chapman will end the year as closer?
10 team 5×5 where you can keep up to 6 players in their draft position (-3 rounds) for two years. For my 6th keep I can go with kelly johnson in the 20th round (we use 25 starters), or just leave it open. While I think he will be drafted in the 10-12th round, I dont know that I want to commit to KJ int he 17th in 2012. Same for cahill who I have at 19. Yes?
@Grey:
My only experience in this fake bb stuff has been a small 10 man standard 5×5 roto league (C,1,2,ss,3,mi,ci,3of,u,7p).
As a perennial overthinker, I have to admit that whenever I see h2h or stats not directly relating to my setup in your articles and razzer’s posts, I only read them for your wit. The last thing I need is more fuel for my fire.
As it turns out, my neighbor needed a 12th man for his league drafting this weekend. It’s a h2h 8×8 with extra categories (H, TB, OBP / L, TB, ER) and slightly different pitching format (C,1,2,ss,3,if,3of,u, 3SP, 3RP, 4P).
Aside from no injury prone guys, no sb alone guys, and starters, starters, starters, does anybody in your rankings drastically climb or drop due to the h2h-ness, extra cats, and way that P is set up? As of right now, I’m going in mentally like it’s my standard league.
So Ian Kennedy has been named the opening day starter, and I was kind of bummed that his first start (and Daniel Hudson’s as well) is @ Colorado.
I hope I don’t open the 2011 season biting the silver bullet across a few teams!
How much would Prado’s value change in a league that is standard 5×5 plus OPS?
@Buge Hoobs:
I lament your future frustration when you find out just how ridiculous losses as a category will be.
With those pitching categories, it just widens the gap between elite SP and average SP even more. You will definitely need to spend a 4th round pick on a pitcher. Any later and, unfortunately, thanks to those categories, you’ll be screwing yourself. Aim minimum for two good pitchers before the 10th.
In terms of hitting, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. Guys like Dunn get a bit of a boost because OBP is now a stat. You have to do a bit of your homework and look at high OBP guys. Low-level players like Morrison get a nice big boost. Other names that somewhat stick out are Abreu, Heyward, Ethier and Magglio among others. Some of these names like Magglio and Abreu aren’t really appealing, so you can draft them at your discretion.
That’s my take on it!
Cano’s stock is as high as it will ever be because of Utley’s issues too.
12-team 5×5 H2H 8-player keeper league
I am in need of a solid starter and I found one team that would like to trade Liriano. He is very interested in Choo, so I was thinking of proposing Choo and a closer for Liriano and Swisher or Pierre (I am leaning Pierre because I need steals). What do you think?
C- McCann
1B- Morales
2B- Utley
3B- Wright
SS- Andrus
MI- Howie Kendrick
CI- Smoak
OFx5- Nelson Cruz, Choo, Pence, Snider, Raburn
UTIL- Adam Lind
BEN- Brignac
SP- Scherzer, Anderson, Daniel Hudson, Chacin, Edwin Jackson, Javier
Vasquez, Jonathan Niese, Travis Wood, Bud Norris, Mike Minor,
Narveson, Clayton Richard
RP- Valverde, Hanrahan, League, Farnsworth
@Buge Hoobs: I play in a 10×10 league H2H, kinda similar to the one you mentioned, we dont use OBP tho, i find in a league that counts singles, doubles triples, etc you need alot of 5 tool type guys, which is normal, but the better batting average guys are clutch. Sure Krispie might go 30/30, but 30/30 and .240 in a 8×8 is kinda devalued in my eyes. It is at least in my 10×10. I also think having a guy or two like tex, tulo, or howard can be extremely valueable. Guys that are traditionally monster second half guys. You can’t own a ton of them because then you’ll suck in the first half and possibly not make the playoffs, BUT either owning them or making a deal for them after the ASB can be key to being successful. All in all you will wanna draft alot like your other league and I agree with Eddy you may want to spend a little bit of a higher pick and go for a more elite type pitcher say a Lester, Lee, CC or Verlander…. guys that will get you WINS, and not take the amount of losses since they’re on winning teams.
13 team roto
drop clayton richard or cecil for mike minor or just stick with what i got
Grey,Im in a 10 team H2H keeper league,and I have plenty of great young OF’s(Braun,Crawford,BJ Upton,Raburn,Lind,Snider),but I want some SP,and specifically I want Daniel Hudson.
and so,here’s the proposed trade:I give up Justin Upton for Domonic Brown and Hudson.Im really concerned about the fact that Brown was awful in his brief time w/ the Phils last season,he was awful in winterball,and was very awful this yr in spring training and now he’s hurt.
so,is the upside w/ Brown and Hudson as great as I think?
btw….its a K/9 league,TB and OBP included as well.
hey grey, you have reynolds listed as top 50 in your top 100 post and call bautista significantly overrated at around 40. i know reynolds appears to be more of a lock for 35 HRs, but also carries more risk for batting avg due to the higher K rate. Why is there such a disparity in their ranking?
Regardless which rankings you see, there will be always underrated and overrated players.
In Grey’s list, the Andrus rank is just crazy and I’m an Elvis fan.
The Posey rank is also crazy. Yeah, Posey is overrated (in my leagues he’s been picked in the 1st or 2nd round) but he’s a solid 5th or 6th round pick in a 12 non-keeper league.
Ryan Howard 8th? With his gradual reduction in %BB and ISO is clear that he’s changing his approach and that’s not good. He is becoming Ichiro or Juan Pierre. For me, he’s a late 2nd rounder.
Grey,
Send me an picture of yourself and I’ll do some fancy photoshop work of you dancing in the rain as players and perception giggle in the background.
@Eddy: As a homer from CO, I hope you bite lots of silver bullets, especially in the RCL draft. Go Rockies!
Gentlemen (and three ladies),
I play in a 16 team H2H keeper. I’m currently stuck slumming it with Miguel Tejada at SS. He’s about as close to replacement level in this league as you can get. Help me get the jump on the next big thing so I don’t have to roll with Miggy’s shrunken testes all summer. Which SS currently on waivers do people think will be starting in most leagues by June?
Great auction list. Another name could be “Names that get the auction dollars out in the open that shouldn’t.” I think I will throw out every name on this list first.
@Rhymenoceros:
Hellz to the naws.
I’m planning on getting rich and striking some coors extra gold!@AJK:
Because currently, Bautista is going around the 3rd-4th and Reynolds falls to the 10th. The fact that Grey’s rankings separates them by 10 spots goes to show that you can get something very close to Bautista’s rankings 6-7 rounds later.
6th is probably too high for Cano, but end of the 2nd round is too low. He finished 11th on the ESPN player rater last season, and if you throw out the 3 pitchers and Bautista that were ahead of him, he finished 7th. This is impressive given how heavily ESPN weighs SB, and Cano didn’t have any to speak of (sagnof anyway, right?) He is a 4 category stud at a weak position.
He is only 28 and is not a health risk. 100/25/100/.315/3 is a reasonable projection, and money in the bank. You aren’t supposed to spend your early picks (or money) on upside guys or health risks.
Prado is a guy that ESPN has ranked so high on their screwy player rater. Same thing with Crawford. Can someone explain to me what ESPN’s player rater is based on?
@Eddie: Don’t know who’s available on waivers in your league, but I’m targeting either Castro, A. Escobar, A. Cabrera, & Brignac at SS this year. Perhaps one of those 4 are available. Good luck!
@Bill Lumbergh: Would you believe none of them are? The top rated available SS are Yuni Betancourt and Alex Gonzalez. Joe Posnanski just threw up in his mouth.
@malcoda – I have to agree with you. Cano is probably the most clear #1 at any position given Utley’s setback. In raw stats, he is likely to outperform all but about 5 or 6 firstbasemen. Clearly, the situation merits a premium price. I only do auctions, and I always bid Cano up to at least $30 and never get him; I don’t mind ending up with B. Phillips for $16-$18, but I’d rather have Cano at $30.
Razzers, I have a draft strategy question for you -
I am in a shallow 10 team roto league that only has 1 C,1B,2B,3B,SS,UT and 3 OF (no CI, MI). This year our league switched to a 28 man roster. How many bats would you carry on the bench? Typically there are some good values with such a shallow starting lineup, especially in the OF. Should I grab a few for trade bait or just stick to loading up on SP and RP? Thanks!
@Cain Fan: It’s all relative. If you have a great lineup, no need for a large hitting bench. Also, if you have a weaker lineup you can have several platoon hitters to (help) make up for it.
The relief ace strategy legit works, but fielding extra hitters is underrated I think as well.
Guess I’m saying is it all depends how your team looks once you’re ready to draft the bench spots
@Eddie: Don’t feel bad, I’m in a 20 team league and the total number of FA SS’s that are owned in more than 0% of leagues are……..8 guys! 1 of which, Renteria, is owned in a whopping 2% of leagues. Ouch!
I’m going to assume Pennington, Theriot and Hardy are gone as well. It’s hard to say without knowing who’s available but, if it’s REALLY thin, Jed Lowrie is a guy to look at. You never know if Pedroia will miss any time, Scutaro isn’t exactly a stud or a picture of perfect health, plus apparently Lowrie will back up AGon at 1B too. He could be playing somewhere in a potent Sox lineup by June.
If it’s a young prospect you’re after there’s always Dee Gordon (Furcal can’t stay healthy) and Grant Green. Although I don’t know what the chances of them actually getting called up this year are.
I am in a 10-team H2H points league (OPS- and K-correlated, for batting and pitching). We have a 8-start max for pitchers, 2 RP slots, 5 outfielders, MI and CI and Util positions (standard ESPN?), daily lineup changes, weekly roster changes, 4 DL slots, 28 (non-DL) total roster slots.
I am keeping Hanley, Pujols, CarGo and Votto (no cost, indefinite keepers). Each manager can keep 5, so for my 5th keeper I’m deciding between Utley, Ubaldo, Josh Johnson, Pedro Alvarez, Delmon Young, Adrian Beltre.
I also keep (for one year) Latos as a 6th keeper because I drafted him in the 20th+ round last spring. In 2011, assuming he stays on my team all year, I can choose to keep him again as part of my top 5 (as above). I’ll have the option to keep another 6th if I make a similarly astute pick in my 2011 draft.
A few weeks ago, Utley was the easy pick but now I’m not sure. Ubaldo is my next choice but I believe Pedro Alvarez is the next big thing at 3B. Who should I keep for my 5th?
Grey, I notice that even though you’ve repeatedly pointed out Cano being overprice, you haven’t mentioned Tulowitzki at the same time (who’s drafted within 1-2 spots consistently). Does this have more to do with the fact that he plays a weaker position, had a stronger second half in 2010, or that you think he’s just generally a more talented player that is unlikely to keep missing huge chunks of time due to injury?
@Grey In a 16 team points league which gives -1 for K’s would Reynolds still be a better 3B option that either Aramis or Mcgehee? Alvarez is already off the board. Thanks!
Thanks Grey for your posts the last few days. The one you posted yesterday or day before will give me some names to look for at end of my draft this weekend.
This post was nice too, I agree with most of it. I won’t be drafting these guys, except, welll… being a Jays fan I have to be open to drafting Bautista
I might regret it, but I believe. Something clicked for him at end of 2009 season (Dwayne Murphy). And since Dwayne Murphy, his hitting coach has been signed for this season+. Well having his good luck charm near by will only help. I can hope, right
But being in a Jays league, doubt I’ll get him where I feel comfortable. I like him, but now enough to reach.
Good day to you..
@Steelers Can’t Lose: Thanks, I confused those at least once a week.
@Bryan: Don’t know how many teams.
@Dominic: Thanks!
@barker: Your pitching looks too strong and your hitting looks weak. Search Iannetta on the site, then search Thole.
@Jim: Let them go.
@Buge Hoobs: Nope
@Eddy: Yeah, not great.
@Black Beard: Bump up a tad.
@ProjectBadass: I wouldn’t do it.
@barker: Can lose Richard for him.
@IgnatiusJReilly: No
@AJK: Overcompensating for everyone else?
@Rhymenoceros: Thanks!
@Eddie: No one knows who’s on your waivers.
@MAC DADDY: Yup
@Frank Rizzo: Steals and average.
@Cain Fan: None
@Jah: Go with Ubaldo.
@OregonianRedbird: Weaker position and he has 30+ homer power and 20 steal speed. Those things beat Cano by a lot.
@Howard: Nope
@Don: No problem.
@Grey
This post is great. I love to laugh at the clowns in my drafts taking these guys way too early.
I totally agree with the perception vs. actual value thing. If you’re looking to create a graph illustrating this, Excel would probably suffice, rather than having to use photoshop.
Keep up the good work!
Completely agree with your Reynolds argument. But I think you are falling into that trap a little with Burnett and Nolasco. They were REALLY BAD! I get it. They won’t be that bad this year and they are going a whole lot latter. =value
@Grey: Real draft last night on CBS. 3-4-5-6-7 were Cano, Tulo, Cargo, Halladay, Crawford. 8-9-10 got sick, sick starts with (8)A-Gone/Wright, (9) Votto/Braun, and (10) Miggy/Longo
Miguel Cabrera and Evan Longoria from the 10 spot? Yikes.
I was able to go Pujols/Youk/Reyes/Kemp (he’s buried in the 60s in the CBS standard rankings). The 10 ended up ruining himself by going CC/Josh Johnson in the 3/4, but he could have had an unstoppable force if he continued down his path.
PS: Utley fell to 50 behind Bautista, Rollins, Michael Young and Choo-Choo-Choose You. I was waiting for him to come back around, but I just couldn’t pull the trigger at 41.
PPS: SP went early. I should have waited longer than I did, but I felt that I had to compete. Lester at 40 and Gallardo at 60 aren’t bad though. Halladay, Adverb, F-Her, L-Cum, Ubaldo, CC, Josh Johnson, Carpenter and Kershaw all went before pick 40. Kershaw at 37 being the latest. Ubaldo at 25 and Carpenter at 36 being the real head scratchers.
PPPS: Consistent with my mocks, closers seem to be going much, much later this year than ever. I could have waited until 160 and still gotten 3-4 D’corns and as many brain freezes as I wanted.
Great post, couldn’t agree more. I do find it interesting how CarGo is being hailed as overrated almost universally (okay, not universally if you can call Brandon Funston an expert), yet his ADP is still neck and neck with Braun.
I’ve done six drafts this year already (four more to go) and I don’t have any of these guys on any of my teams for this very reason. You pretty much nailed my feeling on each of them. The one in particular that I found stood out was Price, because I feel exactly the same way. I’m staying away and not entirely convinced I should be, but doing it anyway. Really I think its that there are only a handful of pitchers I’m willing to look at in any given year before round 7 or 8 and I see much better bargains than Price. This year my guys are Lester and Hamels, they’re either the aces or the #1 and #2 of quite a few of my staffs, though on a couple I missed both and wound up going with Liriano, Haren, and Scherzer in rounds 7-9 instead in one league and going with quantity of upside candidates in the mid-teen rounds rather than anchoring with bonafide #1/#2 types in another.
Also worth noting–Bautista is one of those guys who goes from overrated to underrated in OBP Leagues. .350-.370 OBP and 30 HR with 7-10 steals from third base puts him squarely in the Zimmerman/Youk range, if not a touch better assuming he keeps his K% where it was last year and his .233 BABIP regresses towards the mean a bit.
Someone in my 16 team H2H just dropped Howie Kendrick, do I make a claim on him and drop Sean-Rod or Chris Johnson? I’ve got Hill starting at 2B, Rayburn and Sean-Rod in my UTIL spots and Johnson on my bench.
youve labelled both iannetta and arencibia as sleepers. whom do you prefer given the choice?
@thejvp: Thanks!
@Wake Up: Could be
@sean: Yeah, well, CBS is a crapshoot because of their rankings.
@Mark: Is he being called overrated? Haven’t seen that. Agree with your agreement on Price.
@Wilsonian: Yup, Sean-Rod.
@charlie batch: http://razzball.com/2011-fantasy-baseball-rankings-top-20-catchers/
drop rod, kendrick is too proven and rod ain’t done squat
Grey, please give me quick feedback. 12 team, head-to-head…OB% instead of Batting Average. “Holds” and “QS” in addition to Ks, ERA, WHIP, Saves…
I have since pulled the trigger on a deal in which I acquired Carlos Santana & Derek Jeter; I jettisoned JP Arencibia and Elvis Andrus. “WINNING!”
Thanks, Grey!
1. (6) Evan Longoria (TB – 3B)
2. (19) Jason Heyward (Atl – OF)
3. (30) Matt Kemp (LAD – OF)
4. (43) Justin Morneau (Min – 1B)
5. (54) Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
6. (67) Elvis Andrus (Tex – SS)
7. (78) Francisco Liriano (Min – SP)
8. (91) Neftali Feliz (Tex – RP)
9. (102) Aaron Hill (Tor – 2B)
10. (115) Clay Buchholz (Bos – SP)
11. (126) Daniel Hudson (Ari – SP)
12. (139) Pedro Alvarez (Pit – 3B)
13. (150) Matt Thornton (CWS – RP)
14. (163) Jhoulys Chacin (Col – SP,RP)
15. (174) Craig Kimbrel (Atl – RP)
16. (187) Jorge De La Rosa (Col – SP)
17. (198) Jordan Zimmermann (Was – SP)
18. (211) Jeremy Hellickson (TB – SP,RP)
19. (222) Edwin Jackson (CWS – SP)
20. (235) Ike Davis (NYM – 1B)
21. (246) Manny Ramírez (TB – OF)
22. (259) Frank Francisco (Tor – RP)
23. (270) J.P. Arencibia (Tor – C)
You can also add *insert Closer here*, to the overrated list.
Just sayin’.
R.I.P. Nate Dogg.
In his honor, I watched “Regulate” and reread the thorough plot synopsis at http://bit.ly/fBQUEh.
@royce!: And poured some of my coffee on my office floor.
Oh, yeah. Speaking of Carlos Gonzalez, he went 2nd in this draft. I am actually drinking CarGo Kool-Aid, but second overall is just silly.
@Lobster Cola: I don’t like Buchholz, your pitching staff is pretty reliant on upside, I do like your hitting a lot. Team looks solid overall, nice trade too.
@Derek in Utah: Yeah
@royce!: Damn… That sucks. LBC just lost a little funk.
@Grey: 16 team league, only 3 OF, no MI or CI, 1 Util. I have Miggy, Kemp, J.Upton, Pence and Liriano. My 6th round pick is coming up (#90 overall).
I’m trying to decide whether to take:
1) Scherzer if he lasts (pitcher #23 on your rankings and no one is left above him, but Anderson, Billingsley, Marcum, D.Hudson etc are still left)
2) Reynolds (#47 overall in your rankings) but Young, McGehee, Sandoval, Aramis and Alvarez are all still left
3) BJ Upton, Rasmus, Stanton or Granderson (but I already have my 3 OF spots filled and wouldn’t mind waiting to fill my Util with value later, i.e. Lind, Quentin, Tabata, Pena, etc…)
I know I don’t have C, 2B or SS filled either but I don’t love any of the values left at pick 90 – (Napoli, Hill and Drew are best available).
What would you do? My strength is typically finding pitchers late that outperform so I would hate to have spent my 5th and 6th rounders on Liriano and Scherzer, but I think they both have the chance to finish year top 5 SP overall and I think it’s a bigger tier drop than the other positions.
Thanks.
@Grey: thanks man. That was my gut, too. Don’t know if I’ll get the claim, but I’ll try.
Sucks about Nate Dogg, too. I’ll have to pour some out later tonight.
@Grey: not that I necessarily disagree with you, but I’m curious as to why you tend to deemphasize average when rating players. Too unpredicatable, or something else?
@Grey; @Eddy; @Tony
Thanks for the great feedback! Probably stick to my guns with Grey’s rankings, but pull the trigger on an ace a little earlier. I’ll be a little bit more aggresive with P overall and target the same hitters. Thanks again!
Do you trade Pedroia and Rasmus for Crawford and Phillips? My worry is that my league counts XBH and OBP (Peds is great) and that Crawford won’t run as much now that he can’t run against the Red Sox.
wow, now they’re saying Ankiel might win CF job and Morgon optinoned down.
Big change from earlier in spring when it looked liked Bernadina and Morgan had jobs instead of Morse/Ankiel.
@Harley: Reynolds, Scherzer…
@OaktownSteve: Average is hardest to predict.
@Buge Hoobs: No problem.
@Tom Thumb: I’d take Crawford.
@Donnie Baseball: Yeah, weird moves that should last about two weeks.
@tom thumb: make the deal. its not close.
Grey- last year you put out a feature which basically a list of guys you would be drafting… like players you would pretty much take in each specific round… it was one of your most helpful features I thought you going to do it again?
I hate it when people post their teams in the comments section. It reminds me of Yahoo…
I drafted Bautista at the end of the 3rd round. Needless to say, I’m hoping that you’re wrong about him. If he ends up being legit this year I’m going to feel like a freaking genius. That is all.
Hey,
With Francisco’s injuries right now, would you drop Moreland for Rauch in a holds league? I like Moreland for .280 with 17-18 hrs, but at 1B, that really isn’t that exciting
@Tom Thumb: ya go with crawford, the dudes gonna run, its what he does, BOS isn’t going to bring him in and say “hey we know you’re fast but we dont like to run”
they let ells run, they’ll let crawford run….
@Leo: I’ll try, getting to be crunch time. Though should be obvious which players I like from the last two months of posts.
@cubbies299: He’s a bench player for you? Sure, drop him.
@Biggidy: you’ll feel like a genius if you take a guy who hit 54 HR’s last year in the 3rd? I wouldn’t. I’d just feel like Phewwww I got lucky this dude wasn’t a fluke. I really hope he bombs. sorry
@Lobster Cola: That is a sick trade! And I mean sick as in I’m concerned that the person you traded with might have brain damage. Did Jeter/Santana really not go earlier than Andrus/Arencibia?
Ahoy Grey………….Keeper Time
Here’s the list….
Bourn-10
BButler-11
Jaime Garcia-5
AGonz-36
Hart-5
Headley-5
F Liriano-13
V Martinez-20
B Phillips-27
A Ram-30
D Storen-5
Brett Wallace-7
Werth-31
Jordan Zimmerman-5
Price is what it will cost to keep them. I’m thinking A Gonz and Hart, maybe Garcia, Liriano too.
We keep 6. thanks in advance
@Grey:
Oops, sorry about that. It’s a 12 team H2H league.
@Bryan:
And the categories are as follows: Avg, OBP, HR’s, RBI’s, XBH’s, Runs, SB’s, W’s, L’s, ERA, Whip, K’s, Sv’s, QS’s.
Thanks!
@BigFatHippo: Hey, man, good to hear from you. A-Gon, Hart, Liriano, Butler, Garcia… Not the most exciting names I’ve seen.
@Bryan: Team looks okay, bit weak on power/RBIs.
@BigFatHippo:
I’d go Butler, Agonz, Hart, Liriano, Vmart and Storen I guess
the list isn’t super impressive so the only “must keep” players I see are Butler, Hart and Liriano
@Grey re: CarGo being overrated
Maybe its partly just me, because every time I see someone say he’s overrated on the internet I go “yay! someone published on a fancy niche blog agreed with me!!” But almost every “expert” ranking/writeup I’ve seen discussing him (save the aforementioned Funston) has Braun ahead of him. Tim Dierkes at RotoAuthority actually has him fourth among outfielders. RotoChamp and RotoHardball both have him second. I tend to agree more with Tim, though he has Nelson Cruz ranked third and I’d probably switch him out for either Holliday or Kemp or both, then CarGo, then Cruz/Hamilton.
Addendum: to me, CarGo is basically David Wright with a better ballpark, lower walk rate (meaning less stable production in terms of R), and a less scarce position. Both are BABIP fueled AVG contributors who will probably give you a well distributed 50-60 combined HR/SB.
@Mark: Ah… Didn’t know Tim was still doing fantasy.
Crazy idea: Take a player’s Razzball overall ranking, subtract said player’s ADP (your choice of site). The difference represents that player’s overrated/underratedness.
Put differently, that number would represent the player’s profit potential. A negative number says you should let somebody else take the dude near his ADP, and reverse says BARGAIN!
Peavy or Gio?
@Tony:
Bautista definitely wasn’t my safest pick this year. I caught a lot of flack for taking him 35th overall. It would be nice to be able to rub it in their faces at the end of September.
@BigFatHippo: Gonna be plenty of players in the auction pool…
Jonathan Papelbon who cost $13 in auction draft is now being traded for Hong-Chih Kuo who went for $2 in auction draft in my league
one team needs holds and one team needs saves
I don’t veto trades but I thinks Holds can be found if one looks for them – its 18 team league
there are some that are not too happy
@I’m Keith Hernandez: Gio
@Mr Baseball: Yeah, that’s a bad trade.
Should I protest a commissioner’s announcement a week before our draft that we are expanding from 14 to 16 teams? I mean, I know it affects everyone the same, but its two months of 14-team preparation down the drain…
I haven’t played in a 10 team league in a while. Do you bother drafting closer handcuffs? 5×5 h2h
@Giant JJ: not unless they count ks/9 too – or have a HUGE bench. Just keep an eye on them.
@Steve:
Hey Kiwi, no lurking………..
@Grey:
The list is def not impressive, prolly why I finished near the bottom last year. *
*while secretly rooting against that foreign fella
@little bunny foofoo:
Thanks but I think I’ll stick with the guru’s crew and throw in Wallace for 5. (I’m a sucker for big thighs)
@BigFatHippo: Didn’t quite work though, did it?
@Steve:
My keepers cost 75 bucks, how much you spending?
@BigFatHippo: $92. Votto, Car-Go, Cano, Alvarez, Stanton and Dunn.
@Steve:
Good, I got more money than you to outbid you on whoever you want. Btw, you were just the 1st loser last year……..
@BigFatHippo: Holy shit he’s gonna keep those guys till they cost him 125…….
@BigFatHippo: shut up, quit thinking out loud
@Tom Thumb: Have you identified any other players to target in your league? My 14 team h2h also counts 5×5 plus OBP and XBH, and I’ve been putting together a draft strategy and identifying players to target. One thing I noticed today is that if you don’t land a top 3B, you’re really SOL. Have to take someone like Freese, which is phooey.
@BigFatHippo: Car-Go, Stanton and Alvarez for a total of $21? Don’t mind if I do. Votto at $31? That’ll do nicely.
@BigFatHippo: mind you own business asswipe
@BigFatHippo: you want a piece a me?
@Grey: sorry, been gone so long I’m not used to commenting but that guy was just plain rude………….
Hey Grey, are you dropping down some Florida pitchers because of their outfield D?
I really like Nolasco and Vazquez, but I can’t see them 3 getting to anything.
@daves not here man: Protest how? You gonna dress up as me and have sex with his wife? Can’t really do anything can you?
@BigFatHippo: Hehe
@Donnie Baseball: Nope
Following up on Vazquez, I was looking some stuff up on him. And seen where he turned down a 2 yr/20 million deal for a 1 yr/7 million one.
So judging from that he thinks he’s in line for a big year and a much better payday.
@Donnie Baseball: I like him as a late flyer, his velocity being down is a concern though.
Gammons just tweeted (one of the few of his that makes any sense) that Ozzie says Thornton has ‘first dibs’ on closer role.
@Steve: Thanks for the heads up! What Gammons talks gibberish on Twitter?
@Grey: He can be a bit obscure/obtuse at times.
Almost as if he’s picking out a detail that no one else would ever think of to make himself look clever – which is not really what he’s about at all.
@Grey: I read recently that his velocity was back up a tick. http://joefrisaro.mlblogs.com/archives/2011/03/vazquezs_velocity_increasing.html
Could be small sample size, but seems encouraging.
cool I dont have any of those guys on this list…
@Grey + Friends… any thoughts on this team? its my first time playing roto after 3 years playing h2h points.
12teams standard 5×5 roto
C. V-Mart (4)
1B. Pujols (1)
2B. Hill (8)
3B. Youklis (2)
SS. Jeter (5)
M/I. Peralta (20)
C/I. Encarnacion (22)
OF. J.Upton (3)
OF. Crispie Young (6)
OF. Pierre (11)
OF. Tabata (12)
OF. Manny (16)
UTIL. D.Lee (17)
BN- EYoungJr (24)
Pitchers
Y. Gallardo (7)
M. Cain (9)
Kuroda (10)
C. Lewis (13)
Dempster (14)
Krimbrel (15)
F.Francisco (18)
J. Vazquez (19)
Burnett (21)
A. Chapman (23)
W.Davis (25)
i know i really reached on my middle infield
any advise is appreciated
@royce i gotta pretty good feeling about J-Vaz this year, not good like 2009 but maybe ERA in the mid 3s and maybe win 15 games
Hey razzballers, and Grey…..
I’m in a deep 16 team H2H points league and I have Chris Coughlan as my Utility/DH. How do you guys feel about him? He’s projected to put up far more points than Nate Mclouth, but I’m of the belief that Mclouth is going to have a bounce-back year, as his spring so far backs up that belief. Would you guys trade Coughlan for Mclouth? Or should I stand pat? As of right now there is no one better in free agency, but I do have the #1 waiver pick in my pocket.
@Grey
I have the 2nd pick in a 12 team league and I’m thinking I’m going to end up with Dunn as my 1B. I don’t particularly like it either, but I think he’ll have a better year then Morneau. My question comes down to 3B in Round 4 or 5. You have Reynolds listed before Beltre, and I just don’t trust Beltre, so I agree, but would you dare pair Dunn and Reynolds? Mind you, I’m taking Hanley in the 1st and Holliday in the 2nd. Maybe even Phillips in the 5th if he’s still around. Can I ever overcome the potential AVG of these two donkey’s (donki?)??
Would I be better off pairing Dunn with Beltre?
Or even better yet… take an SP in the 4th or 5th with Phillips in the other, and wait for Alvarez or A. Ramirez to drop to me in the next round? Is there going to be that big of a difference between Reynolds or Beltre and A. Ram or Alvarez? I think I’d put them all in the same tier anyway. I’m leaning towards waiting for the two from the NL Central and pairing them with Gallardo or Liriano.
Cheers mate!
@Steve: Yeah, that’s weird.
@royce!: At least it’s positive.
@CGSO: Your offense looks pretty poor, probably because you drafted V-Mart, Pierre and Jeter. Your pitching looks okay.
@motorcitykitty: I’d stand pat for now.
@Bobby Nice: I wouldn’t put Dunn and Reynolds together. Take an SP and Phillips. Wait for Alvarez or Aramis, preferably Aramis if you’re worried about average.
@grey So I was showing a friend of mine how to switch players in the yahoo player ranker for autopicking the other day. He loves Chipper Jones (Braves superfan) and I never changed it back. I showed up one round late to my draft today due to circumstances beyond my control. Yep, Chipper was my 1st round pick. DAMNIT! So anyways here is my team. I decided to go bounceback/upside/etc. pretty much exclusively on offense. 11 team roto. What do you think Grey?
Soto-C
Tex-1b
Hill-2b
Alexei Ramirez-ss
Zimmerman-3b
Upton-OF
Bruce-OF
Tabata-OF
Escobar-MI
Reynolds-CI
Lind-Util
Chipper-Util
Kershaw
Haren
Marcum
Hudson
Volquez
Chacin
Kennedy
Minor
Broxton
Axford
Frank Franc
League
Farnsworth
Obviously I have some average worries, especially if people don’t bounce back/breakout. Also I’ll be dumping Chipper (try to trade him to the superfan)
@grey is Ike Davis off of your top 22 1b an oversite or intential. I also didn’t see him on your top 300 list. Do you think he shouldn’t be on these? He isn’t mentioned at all in 2011 that I can find. I am looking for a power Util in the 21-24 round of my draft was considering him or Gaby Sanchez. Have a better suggestion?
@Grey: Que pasa homey? Want your opinion here…
For reasons to strange to explain, my keeper league is running it’s draft via email. 12 team mixed, categories are standard 5×5 + OBP and QS.
My keepers are Pujols (in exchange for a 1st round pick), Dunn (4), Hamels (5), Gardner (22), Carlos Santana (25).
Drafted Ubaldo. Now I’ve got one opponent picking twice at the turn and then I have two of the next three picks. Provided they are available, I was thinking of drafting Liriano and Stephen Drew. Some other guys possibly available:
Rios
Gallardo
Crispy Young
K. Johnson
Michael Young
Aramis
Casey McGehee
Panda
Aaron Hill
Chone
Colby Rasmus (I’m targeting next after those two aforementioned picks)
Victorino
Wells
Sparkakis
I obviously need to get my 2B/3B/SS/MI situation sorted out pronto but I also like to take best player available when in doubt (in this case a pitcher like Gallardo or Liriano) and let god sort ‘em out. I’m targeting OF late since there aren’t any guys who I love out there who haven’t been kept.
What say you? Who do you focus on with these picks?
Oh and it’s still too early for me to look at RP. This is the 6th round (where I have two picks due to trades).
@Bobby Nice: You could take You at your 2/3 and take the best 1b/3b option you get at a later time. A buddy of mine likes McGahee in 8-10
trade offer I was offered Clay Hensley for Jason Motte
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/03/16/luis-salazar-loses-his-left-eye/
@Mr Baseball: Giving up a solid set up man in St Louis for a good one in Florida. It is a trade to trade. What is the point? Sounds like you don’t want it bad so don’t. I don’t trade to trade. Upgrade a position or trade to get something different.
@Michael Bourne: Well said.
What do you think of my conundrum above?
@Nuke LaDouche: Team still looks good even with the Chipper mishap. Yeah, average might be a concern and you don’t have all that much speed. Pitching looks strong though.
@Michael Bourne: I’d prefer Sanchez to Ike.
@3FingersBrown: Rasmus and Liriano are fine, you need to take a 3B too.
@Mr Baseball: Eh
@chata: Yikes… Selig needs to institute metal Snake Plissken patches for all coaches.
I was thinking Frankie and Drew. Then come back with Rasmus 11 picks later if he’s still available – which may not happen.
Maybe the better play is Frankie and Rasmus as you say.
Then since Drew will probably be gone, I’ll still be able to grab a 3B – Aramis, Panda, Young or McGehee (unfortunately the hometown kid, Alvarez has been kept) in the next round – and then make a play for the Desmond, Castro, Asdrubal tier.
Sounds like a plan. Thanks Grey!
Thanks for all the advice grey. Truly awesome site. The humor makes it.
Quick question. Who should I pick as a fifth keeper (12 team H2H) from the following list. ( I kept Han Ram, Mauer, Hanson, Marcum already)I’m leaning towards guys w an x after them.
Cats:
Hitting: ‘R,H,HR,RBI,SB,K,FPCT,OPS,PA’
Pitching:’APP,IP,W,L,SV,HR,K,ERA,WHIP’
Greinke Zack
Beltre Adrian (x)
Johnson Josh (x)
Dunn Adam (x)
Jeter Derek
Suzuki Ichiro
Morales Kendry
Ethier Andre
Butler Billy
Pence Hunter (x)
Marmol Carlos
Bruce Jay
Ramirez Alexei
Rios Alex (x)
Hamels Cole
Rivera Mariano
Santana Carlos
Ramirez Aramis
Wilson Brian
Soria Joakim
Young Michael
Stubbs Drew
Victorino Shane
Liriano Francisco
Gallardo Yovani
You are a fantasy guru. I’m so glad my leaguemates don’t read this. I have to hide my Razzball coffee mug everytime one of them come over, just so I can continue being the sole reaper of the benefits of your wisdom.
You are a fantasy guru. I’m so glad my leaguemates don’t read this. I have to hide my Razzball coffee mug every time one of them comes over, just so I can continue being the sole reaper of the benefits of your wisdom.
Sorry for the double post. Please don’t hit me!