Fantasy Baseball Advice

Travis Wood | LHP-SP | Cincinnati Reds | DOB: 2-6-87 | 6’0” | 165 lbs | B/T: L/L | 2005 2nd rd. from H.S. | CIN #7 ranked prospect according to Baseball America (2010) | MiLB Player Page

After a poor 2008 season caused by an injured shoulder, 2009 turned out to be a coming back party. Wood grabbed the ball every fifth day and caused scouts to sing praises for his newfound pitch. After having a healthy season, it made Baseball America’s organizational prospect rankings seem a bit shortsighted. After getting roughed up in 2008 when he was the 21st ranked prospect for the Reds, he wasn’t ranked in 2009 and now he’s ranked seventh in 2010. Wood throws an 88 to 91 mph fastball, a plus-plus changeup – which is as good as it gets – a newly found cutter, and a mediocre curveball. Because he doesn’t have a dominating second offering, becoming a LOOGY (i.e. lefty specialist) isn’t possible. However, finesse lefties have known to stay around a long time – yes, I’m looking at you, Jamie Moyer – and he’s excellent at locating his pitches and changing speeds. Upside, number four or five starter, according to Baseball America and John Sickels prior to this season. Keith Law had him ranked as the Reds number sixth ranked prospect. Here’s how he’s done this year and in his career:

2010 Stats: 8.9 K/9 | 2.1 BB/9 | 98 IP | 3.12 ERA | 3.26 FIP | 1.08 WHIP | .8 Hr/9 | 7.6 H/9 | .298 BABIP | 43.1 GB% | 20.3 LD% | 33.3 FB% | 9.8 Hr/FB%

Career Stats: 8.4 K/9 | 3.6 BB/9 | 627 1/3 IP | 3.34 ERA | ~3.71 FIP | 1.22 WHIP | .7 Hr/9 | 7.4 H/9 | .286 BABIP | 41 GB% | 15.8 LD% | 40.4 FB% | 5.6 Hr/FB%

His command improvement that happened last year (2.8 BB/9 in 2009) has continued this year with an improved strikeout rate (7.2 K/9 in 2009) without the aid of a lucky BABIP. He has been hit fairly hard (20.3 LD%) and his home run rate is high to be too excited about his potential. Remember that he is playing in the PCL. Speaking of where he plays, his Home/Away splits are notable but expected because his home park is hitter-friendly. Thus, as most of you can assume, he pitches better on the road than at home. His left-handed batters versus right-handed batters split is worth mentioning. Lefties have hit .152 with one homer, six earned in 37 innings and posted a 1.13 ground-out-to-air-out ratio. Righties have hit .252 with eight homers and 28 earned runs in 61 innings and posted a 1.08 ground-out-to-air-out ratio. Fairly significant to note, but nothing dramatic and it’s an extremely small sample size.

Even as the MiLB dot com’s 2009 Double-A Player of the Year, Wood has continued to fly under the radar. This is probably because of his repertoire lacks dominating and drool worthy pitches. I want to call him sneaky good, and because he doesn’t have the hype-able skill-set (height, power pitches, several potential plus-pitches, etc.) he’ll probably never get talked about much. Will he be a serviceable major league pitcher? Possibly. Will he fail miserably? Potentially. He doesn’t have the ground-ball rate that I love and usually translates well to the majors, but I believe he could provide his major league team with more value than any fantasy baseball manager. Granted, that’s assuming it’s a 12 team league. In deeper leagues, I am thinking of an Aaron Cook, Hiroki Kuroda, or, reaching back a bit, Brad Radke. Meaning something along the lines of 7 to 7.5 K/9 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.30 WHIP during his prime. Maybe better, maybe worse. Nothing special, but combined with a solid middle reliever and those numbers are helpful.

J.P. Arencibia | C | Toronto Blue Jays | DOB: 1-5-86 | 215 lbs | B/T: R/R | 2007 1st rd #21 from College-Tennessee | TOR #2 ranked prospect according to Baseball America (2010) | MiLB Player Page

In the 2007 draft, Arencibia was the second best catcher behind Matt Wieters due to his ability to hit for power and potentially average. His defense left something to be desired after his years at Tennessee, but he has worked extremely hard trying to stay as a catcher. Baseball America says his defense is now “solid.” He has a slightly above-average arm with decent receiving skills and calls a good game. An added benefit is that he’s bilingual and is a natural leader. He has good power but his swing is long, his hitting approach is flawed but natural and would work in the Blue Kays, I mean Jays, lineup since he swings for the fences and rarely works the count. This hitting approach finally caught up to him in 2009 as he floundered at Triple-A Las Vegas. I blame some of that on his .269 BABIP and some on his 114:24 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Is this year any different?

2010 Stats: .303/.353/.602 | 251 AB | 40 XBH | 17 Hr | 0/0 SB/CS | 56:20 K:BB | .331 BABIP | 32.1 GB% | 17.9 LD% | 50 FB%

Career Stats: .272/.313/.490 | 1455 AB | 178 XBH | 68 Hr | 0/1 SB/CS | 327:78 K:BB | .310 BABIP | 36.1 GB% | 16.7 LD% | 47 FB%

Actually, yes. Yes, this year is much different. His BABIP is high, and slightly higher than his career numbers. Matter of fact, add the .021 BABIP that he has over his career average to his 2009 season and you have a .290 BABIP that would help his slash line. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has improved this year, and with seven more walks he’ll have a career high. The power seems outrageous and a product of his home ballpark being a hitters’ park. Well, his Home/Away splits is, well, the opposite of Travis Wood. He hits better on the road (1.099 OPS) than at home (.823 OPS). This season he started out all right in April, then progressed into a cold May, and exploded this last month of June.

Here is what I wrote about him back in December from my Toronto Minor League Review, “Arencibia was considered the catcher of the future, but with the d’Arnaud acquisition and the signing of John Buck, that may be in question. His slash line is destroyed by a low batting average on balls in play (.269), albeit he hit a ton of fly balls (52.5%). The power is legit, the strikeouts are scary and the lack of walks is more of a turn off than Joan Rivers. Playing the Pacific Coast League may have inflated his numbers a wee bit, however, expect to see him in the majors at some point in early summer 2010. Keep expectations in check, but if you need a catcher, plug him in and see what he can do. It’s worth a chance over anyone not named Mauer, McCann, or Martinez.”

If all you heard was blah blah blah, improved strikeout-to-walk ratio, blah blah blah, power surge is lucky, blah blah blah, and is hot in June. Fair enough. What does this all mean? It means his stock has risen, he has rebounded nicely, and with only John Buck in his way, I could see Arencibia being called up in the near future (before September) and given a chance to play regularly. He could get 12 to 15 homers in 250 to 300 AB with a .260 average. As a catcher, you can do much worse. He probably won’t get that many at-bats, but he should be on your radars. He isn’t Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Matt Wieters, or even Jesus Montero, maybe more of a Miguel Olivo or Mike Napoli.

Chase Utley was placed on the 15-day DL with a sprained thumb and he might need surgery.  This injury opens up a big gaping hole in his owners’ hearts that can only be filled with junk food and hardcore drugs.  Utley may not have been playing his weight in pomade, but at least you had him out there.  At night when you crawled into your Michelob-scented bedsheets, your head hit the pillow knowing that if nothing else Utley was healthy.  Looks like you’re going to have to dust off the “Sounds of the Ocean” CD you used to help you sleep when your wife left you.  Phillies will turn to Wilson Valdez, Juan Catastrophe and Brian Bocock, whose surname is bad enough without me altering it.   Hopefully your options are better.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Placido Polanco – Crapolanco also heads off to the DL.  Too bad because he was leading David Wright in All-Star votes for 3rd base.  Hold on, whaaaaa???  Oh.  Wait, what?  If his vote tally goes up while he’s on the DL, I’m gonna suggest players can’t vote for themselves.

Chris Carpenter – As reported here before I ever read it elsewhere then re-reporting it after I did read it elsewhere, Carp could miss his next start because of the comebacker he took off his forearm.

Albert Pujols – 3-for-4, 5 RBIs and 2 homers.  ESPN dedicated three minutes to Pujols yesterday with only two mentions of Strasburg.

Felipe Lopez – 4-for-5 with a steal and 6 for his last 9.  Worth taking a look at if you lost Pedroia or Utley.

David Freese – Is on ice for 15 days with a sprained right ankle.  Or as doctors call it, “a rankle.”

Dexter Fowler – As Hawpe nurses his ribs back to succulency, the Rockies called up a Razzball favorite, Dexter Fowler.  Fowler still doesn’t have an everyday job in the outfield.  Can the Rockies please ship off Hawpe and Spilborghs?  Fowler has great speed and good on base skills.  If he gets starts, I’ll be more excited.  I still grabbed him in all but one league where I was beat to the punch by Behrens.  Behrens!

Joel Zumaya – Will miss the rest of the season with a displaced fracture of his… It hurts just to type it.  It’s not good.  Let’s move on.

Alfonso Soriano – 2-for-4, 2 homers.  Looked like his Mummy knees were starting to unravel in June (4 homers, .229 this month), but last night was a nice sign of life.  (Of course I was sonavabenched by him last night, but that’s my ulcer.)

Ryan Doumit – 2-for-3 with his 7th homer.  Been Doumit out power since June 5th, but he’s the type to hit them in bunches like a horny monkey.

John Lackey - 7 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 3 Ks.  That’s cool, I dropped him in a league yesterday.  I’m done with this schmohawk.  You can’t start him at home, in away games he’s taking on the Yanks, Rays and 1927 Blue Jays.  It’s over for Lackey and I.  I should’ve never drafted him to begin with.  Have a nice life, don’t write!

Bill Hall – 1-for-3 and a homer as he filled in for Pedroia.  Hopefully Hall’s brother doesn’t follow the lead of Dustin’s brother, Pedo Pedroia.

Adrian Beltre – 4-for-4 as he hits .349 on the year.  That translates to .270 at Safeco and .220 in a non-contract year.

Carl Crawford – 4-for-5 and a steal as he pulled back on the road after his shoulder issue.

B.J. Upton – Sat out, but the dork in the Buddy Holly glasses said it wasn’t because of his argument with Longoria.  Longoria said, “Yes, it was.”

Roger Bernadina – 1-for-4 with a steal.  Has now hit in nine of his last ten games, though he only has one multi-hit game in there.  He’s making a case for the leadoff spot and has shown some power and speed with 5 homers and 7 steals in 162 ABs while batting near .300.  It’s not spectacular, but in deep leagues it’s worth the flyer.

Joey Votto – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 17th homer.  I <3 Votto.

Mike Leake – 6 IP, 6 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks as the Leake floods your ERA basement.  You guys had a good run.  Get his address and you can write to him when he’s on someone else’s team.

Gavin Floyd – 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 2 Ks. Has now strung together 5 solid starts.

J.J. Putz – Got the save as Jenks continues to be away from the team.  Jenks will return within the next day or so, but this does tell us a bit about what Ozzie is thinking regarding Thornton and Putz.  Worth noting in case Jenks is traded.

Russell Branyan – 1-for-4 as he hit 3rd.  Really?  He’s your three hole hitter?  This is like when you and your lady breakup because you’re a damn fool and thought the new girl would be so much better and let you play your video games and cook for you and laugh at your corny jokes.  Branyan is the new girl, he is not better than the old girl.

Nick Swisher – 2-for-4 with 2 homers.  I almost sat him vs. The Adverb.  Sonavabenching averted.

Phil Hughes – 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 12 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Looks like the Hughes Rules in regards to skipping his rotation turn is working as well as the Joba Rules.

Matt LaPorta – Back from the minors only a few games and already homered.  It’s a nice sign.  Those of you hurting for a decent corner infidel will want to keep an eye on LaPorta.  We might have a live one, ya’ll.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – 0 for his last 12.  Yeah, his worth-owning streak might have officially come to a close.

Prince Fielder – He got a little “How’s your father?” in yesterday’s 2nd half hitter post and hit 2 homers yesterday.  And only one of them was a solo shot!

Wilson Betemit – 2-for-4 and is hitting .480 over his 25 ABs this year.  Not getting consistent playing time, but the peasant Royals may want to reconsider that.

Denard Span – 4-for-4, 3 Triples, 2 Runs and 5 RBIs.  Look at Denard Dawg getting it done.  Probably will have a career year for steals in 2010 with the way he’s cut down his caught stealings.

Pat Burrell – 2-for-3 with his 5th homer as he bats .344 so far with the Giants.  Maybe it’s good he’s in San Fran so he can focus on baseball and not girls.  No, not in that way.  He was going through a messy divorce in Tampa and said he was having a hard time focusing.  In San Fran, he can focus on nothing but bats and balls.  No, still not like that.

Clint Barmes – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs and his 6th homer.  Here’s another MI that you can look at if you just lost Utley.  Barmes can give you a couple of ropers while only hurting you in average.

Huston Street – Recorded his first save of the year.  Member when you drafted him and you thought he’d be healthy by mid-April?  Good times!

Manny Ramirez – Left the game with an injured hamstring.  Better get Vladimir Shpunt on the horn!

Matt Kemp – 2-for-4.  Until Manny was hurt, Kemp was out of the starting lineup for the third straight day.  In related Rihanna news, Chris Brown has a new single.

Mike Napoli – Hit his team-leading 14th homer yesterday as the Angels keep trying to shop him for some power.  Can’t make this stuff up.

Leo Nunez – 1 IP, 2 ER as he recorded the newly-coined glossary term, sphinctory.

Brad Lidge – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Lidge now has 5 saves, 2 blown saves and a 5.25 ERA.  Good that he has the closer mentality, because without that intangible he’d be out of a job.

Wilson Valdez – 2-for-4, 4 RBIs as he hit a homer filling in for Utley.  After the game, he met with a youngster named, Wilson Beepee, to assure him his name won’t always elicit jeers.

Here’s some 2nd half hitters for fantasy baseball who should be better than they were in the first half.  To come up with this list, I scoured the last three years of post-All-Star Break numbers, ran it through a supercomputer that’s bigger than your Peugeot, pasted the supercomputer-generated names to my shirt like dollar bills on a wedding dress then went to a palm reader to help me pick ten names out of the thousands.  The palm reader’s name was Erica Karabell.  Anyway, here’s the best 2nd half fantasy baseball hitters for 2010:

Derrek Lee – Last year, he played the 2nd half like he was walking onto a yacht with an apricot scarf.  I think last year was an anomaly, which is a fancy word for saying ignore Derrek Lee’s 2nd half.  But if you’re choosing between the schmohawk behind door #3 and Lee, then I’d go with Lee just for the chance he can repeat even a tiny bit of last year, so that’s negating the negation.

Matt Holliday – Hit 24 homers in 263 ABs in the 2007 2nd half, 16 homers in 2008 and 16 in 2009, while also having the 6th best average in the majors.  Holliday’s on holiday in the 1st half and Holliday’s Holliday in the 2nd half.  Any questions?  Yeah, what are you talking about? Not now, random italicized voice.

Prince Fielder – Last year, he led the majors with 24 homers.  If anyone besides Ryan Howard can hit 20+ homers in 2 and a half months, it’s Prince.

Carlos Pena – 26 homers in 07′s 2nd half.  17 homers in the 2nd half  of 2008.  Last year, he hit 15.  This year I say he hits as many as it takes to give him 39 for the year.  Why?  Cause Pena is a 39 homer guy.  Yes, it’s that scientific.

Ryan Zimmerman – Always hits for a better average in the 2nd half, but last year he also chucked in 19 homers.  If you currently own Holliday, Zimmerman and Fielder on the same team, you’re enjoying this post so far, huh?  Go take a steam, you’re done for today.

Magglio Ordonez – Consistently hits for more power and a better average in the 2nd half.  Not someone I’d necessarily trade for, but if he was a throw-in into another trade, I wouldn’t kick him out of bed.

Nyjer Morgan – Had the third best average in last year’s 2nd half just in front of Joe Mauer and Howie Kendrick (<–bonus name!).  So far this year, Nyjer’s been a bit unlucky (though he was a bit lucky during last year’s 2nd half).  If all things were equal, I’d look like Tom Cruise, have duckets like Bill Gates and Nyjer would have a good 2nd half.

Ty Wigginton – Honestly, I think Wiggy might’ve used up all his goodwill in April and May, so I’m not saying trade for him, but he has been better in the 2nd half for the last 4 years.

Adam LaRoche/Mark Teixeira – What would a list of post-All-Star break hitters be without Mark Teixeira and Adam LaRoche?  Nada, nada, nada damn thing…

On May 23rd, Jason Heyward was scratched with a sore thumb.  Seems harmless, right?  As they say in Norway, “A-ha!  (Best group ever.)”  Turns out he has a strained ligament in his thumb and is headed to the DL.  Member when I said I dropped him about a month or so ago?  In your face fantasy baseball gods!  (It was a shallow, no bench league, stop judging me for dropping Heyward.  I can feel your stares.)  Since May 23rd, Heyward has a line of 16/2/12/.210/2.  If my math is right, that’s not a good month.  No wonder he dodged the Strasburg bullet train last night.  He’s scurred, Mystikal.  Okay, I do really like Heyward, but this thumb injury could linger until the offseason.  Not a great sign.  He may not revisit his mollywhopping, pony stick ways until into The One-One.  For those doing a bid in redraft leagues, DL him if you can and hope the rest helps his sucky thumb.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Tim Hudson – 7 IP, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Has a poor xFIP, a terrible K-rate and a meh walk rate.  It’s not a trick, it’s an illusion!

Kris Medlen – Braves announced that Medlen will stay in the rotation after Jar-Jar returns because any other move would’ve been maddenin’.

Stephen Strasburg – 6 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Rest assured, Beckett Sports Card Monthly still plans on running its Strasburg cover for 16 consecutive months, ESPN will still work Strasburg into every baseball highlight and Strasburg, Virginia will continue to sell bumper stickers that read, “Virginia is for Strasburgers.”

Chase Utley – Will have an MRI on his hand today after hurting it on his slide into 2nd.  They might want to MRI his hip while he’s in there.  If you own Utley, this would be a good time to start praying to your Philly Phanatic bobblehead.

Raul Ibanez – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 6th homer.  He’s been flatlining so long I didn’t think Bacon and Kiefer could’ve brought him back.  Maybe he has a pulse after all.  We shall see.  Or not.  Your choice.

Johnny Cueto – 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 0 Ks vs. the Phils.  Sonavabench!  How did he not strikeout anyone and hold the Phillies to 1 run?  Cueto, we were friends and now I feel like I don’t know you at all.

Scott Rolen – 1-for-3 with his 17th homer.  Should be a fun throwback Homer Derby at the All-Star Game with Rolen, Konerko and Wells.  When Berman says back-back-back, he might be talking about a back injury.

Aaron Heilman – Two errors led to Heilman blowing the save without giving up a hit or a walk.  Qualls was seen mumbling in the bullpen, “I’m not crazy, the closer role is cursed, I tell ya!  Cursed!”

Adam LaRoche – Hit his 12th homer yesterday.  It’s not quite the 2nd half yet, but no reason to tell LaRoche.

Chris Carpenter – 7 IP, 3 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Didn’t look like himself last night after being hit on the forearm by a comebacker.  He stayed in the game, so it obviously wasn’t that bad, but it’s worth monitoring.

Carlos Quentin – Another day, another homer and another day at the office after a two month vacation.

Travis Snider – Continues to pull a Kotchman and now isn’t expected back until after the All-Star break.

Joel Zumaya – Out with a severe arm injury.  His season might be in question.  Leyland said, “That’s an awesome bad feeling to see something like that.”  Did Tigers management tell him they’re trying to appeal to a younger generation and he needs to use “hip” words?  Did he lose a bet and have to use awesome in every sentence?  Or did someone pack his Marlboros with weed?

Francisco Liriano – 6 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Awesome!

Miguel Olivo – 3-for-5, 4 RBIs and his 11th homer as he bats .303 on the year.  So the Wieters draft pick isn’t looking that good.

Hong-Chih Kuo – Got the save yesterday and could get another today as Broxton gets two days off after pitching four of the last five days.  That’s one way to manage the bullpen.  Another way would’ve been to just not bring Broxton in for the last four non-save opportunities.

Chad Billingsley – 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks in his return from the DL.  6 innings, 98 pitches, a few runs, a few walks, some hits… Yup, Bills is back.

Michael Bourn – 4-for-6 and a home run.  Someone test his urine!

Jose Tabata – 1-for-4 with his 3rd steal in the last five games and 5 steals in 17 games.  Gotta love a guy that knows how he gives fantasy value.

Neil Walker – Probably going to the DL with a concussion, unless he’s hardheaded.

Mike Aviles – 3-for-4 and that’s exactly what Aviles do.  Not a flashy 3-for-4, but a 3-for-4 neverthehoo!

Jason Bay – 2-for-4 with 2 homers.  Now if the Mets bring in the fences 100 feet to mimic the bandbox Puerto Rican stadium, Bay will be in good shape.

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 Walks, 9 Ks.  Hey, look who it is, ’08 Nolasco.  Hey, ’08 Nolasco, say hello to your mother for me.

Kerry Wood – 1 IP, 0 ER with 2 Ks for the save.  Right after the last out, the Indians emailed the entire league. Subject:  Wood.  Body of the email:  He’s heating up!!!  Better make your offers soon!!!  No offer too small… Seriously, no offer.

Victor Martinez – Will go on the DL as the Red Sox call up Gustavo Molina.  No relation, but it brings up an interesting idea.  I wonder if I changed my name to Grey Molina if the Astros would be interested.

Headley’s an example.  You don’t necessarily have to give or get Headley for this example to work, but a comment I got today made me think of him.  Someone was offered the trade of Miggy Cabrera and Chase Headley for Haren and Kershaw.  Whether you think this trade is fair or not is besides the point, Headley is the point.  He’s the sore thumb in this trade.  To break this down into a real world example, if you were trading someone for a blueberry pie and you had to give an apple pie and one other component.  To sweeten the pot of pie, would you A) Throw in whipped cream? B) Throw in ice cream? C) Throw in dog feces?  A and B can open up negotiations.  I want ice cream, but I don’t want vanilla.  I like your whipped cream, but I’m more of a Cool Whip guy.  You don’t have Cool Whip?  Okay, maybe you can throw in a fork so I don’t have to use my fingers.  Dialogue has now started and a trade may or may not work out.

When I get offered a trade with dog feces, I usually reject the trade and reply, “No thanks.”  Negotiations will not start on my end.  If someone wants to offer me dog feces, I won’t go out of my way to figure out how a trade could possibly work for our two teams.  I don’t counteroffer.  Then my favorite thing (and by that I mean least favorite thing) is when someone will offer dog feces, I’ll reject it and then they email me back something like, “You see anything that could work in a trade for our teams?”  So let me get this straight, you don’t have the decency to offer me a good trade or have the time to look at my team for a counteroffer so it’s up to me to figure out a trade for us when you were the one who initiated the trade?  Yeah, I’m pretty good about getting back to everyone who offers me a trade, but that email could sit in my inbox for days.  And when I get around to it, I usually send a clipped, “Don’t see anything.”

If you’re offering a trade, it’s better to offer the real meat of the trade (to switch up our food analogies), rather than tack on some excrement that no one wants.  For instance, if you want Haren and Kershaw for Miggy, offer that trade.  Don’t push your unwanted Headley onto the trade to sweeten it because it’s doing the opposite.  It’s saying to me, “I’m giving you Headley because I think you’re stupid.  So stupid in fact, you may spell it stoopid.”  Without Headley, the trade is at least respecting the other person’s intelligence and can kick off negotiations.