I’ve been working on my own version of this without knowing what you were up to until just now. This is ambitious and cool.

Here is what I really like about your approach:

(1) You build your “points universe” out of the projected statistics instead of expected statistics for 2010. That is, instead of looking at last year and saying “it took 1100 runs to finish third in the category,” you determine this from the projections themselves. I’m finding this to be really important — essential, even.

(2) You assign players to a “most valuable” position if there are multiple positions they count toward. I agree completely.

Still trying to wrap my head around using average performance instead of replacement performance as a baseline. I’ll reread that a few more times and see if I can make heads or tails of it.

One thing I built into mine, and something that I would love to see in yours, would be a way to credit players with low playing time projections. For instance, Chipper Jones. I don’t leave my 3B spot empty when Chipper Jones makes his annual trip to the DL. I fill it with a replacement player. So the “net” value of drafting Chipper Jones is really 120 games of Chipper (his full projection) plus 40 games of replacement level 3B.

Awesome work. Is it available for download as a spreadsheet?

@Joel: I like the way you think. I tend to use MDC ADP but it’s a better representation of ‘advanced’ players’ picks vs. average players. For average players, ESPN or Yahoo rankings work best.

I take the ADP and determine the round it would fall in. One round early is a slight reach. One round late is a slight bargain. More importantly, though, I’m studying everyone’s rosters. If I need a 2B and several teams do too, I’m more likely to reach for a 2B I like. If most teams seem set on 2B and MI, I’ll hold off.

In other words, my strategy is to pick all players between my value and when a player would theoretically be taken in the draft (which will vary from ADP based on the flow of each draft).

Thanks

Just some more thoughts.

1) I’ve been leaning towards using a baseline automated projection (if you use BP’s playing times with ZiPS and/or CHONE, that’ll probably be it!) but with FAN projections as my “upside”. Since they’re almost unilaterally optimistic, they can give me an idea of who might really break out, without having to pore through PECOTA’s breakout percentages (or having to pay for them).

2) A crucial aspect of drafting is knowing when your compadres will pick players. In the past, I took MDC’s ADPs as my “mean draft positions” and then estimated standard deviations by taking the range (lowest – highest pick) and dividing by 4 (this is a pretty standard estimating practice and uncannily accurate). I could then figure out the probability that a player would be available at a given slot by using Excel’s NORMDIST function.

For people who still sit in a room, drinking beer, and drafting, this is pretty handy. It let me sit and wait on some players I really wanted (but didn’t want to reach for) like Vasquez and Bruce. On the other hand, I whiffed on Reynolds (got him later on the waiver wire) and a few others.

The problem with this system is that

a) The MDC data is not very good. But they’re the only ones that I know of that provide ADP and ranges.

b) Distributions of picks aren’t actually normal. For one, there’s a huge positive skew for high picks (i.e. almost everyone is going to pick Pujols first and Ramirez second). There’s also a huge negative skew for low picks (some players that might get picked as high as the 14th round (long tail) are far more likely not to get selected at all). Even more complicated are bimodal distributions. A draft with 12 dorks like myself is going to entail a lot of people making similar picks. In a heterogenous league, you’re going to see a lot of variation. We had a lot of “sleepers” going early (like Chris Davis) but Ichiro slid to the 6th round and Mauer slid to the 9th. On the other hand, Mark Reynolds lasted until the 14th, and Greinke until the 13th.

Anyhow, I’m wondering what your thoughts are on this method. In fact, I think with an automated program like the war room you could really get a lot of statistical strength here by adjusting percentages based on who’s already been taken. You’d need access to a lot of raw mock draft data to make it work, though.

I just hope he can get the AB’s. As of now he is destined for Colorado Springs. With Barmes and Mora manning 2B and Fowler, CarGo, Smith, Spilly and Hawpe in the OF, I just see no spot for him.

CarGo went nuts last year in Colorado Springs and still only got 278 AB’s with the parent club. Seems like the Rockies aren’t playing them as young as they used to because they are a quality club now.

While I think EYJ would be a great table setter for the big bats in the Rockies line up and an obvious lead off hitter for them, I just don’t see them benching Barmes and Mora because of experience and money.

How many AB’s do you see for EYJ? I am guessing around 200. That is why I am leaning more towards Everth Cabrera, Brantley, Stubbs, and Juan Pierre as later round speedsters because they have spots right now.

I put EYJ in the Desmond Jennings category, just waiting for a spot to open.

@Cygar: Just so you know, I don’t fudge with any player rankings based on personal opinion. I wouldn’t use Point Shares – even the final version – as a sacred draft sheet. I was incredibly shocked to see Eric Young Jr. valued ahead of those players. I was really surprised he’s ahead of Aaron Hill at 2B. As you can see by the Point Share breakout by category, his value is driven mainly by Runs and SBs. CHONE has him at 99 runs and 38 SBs. That’s 7th overall in Runs and 5th in SBs. With 2B eligibility, switch-hitting, and near .300 average, he’d be a reincarnation of Luis Castillo at his peak. I checked ZiPS (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2010_zips_projections_colorado_rockies/) and it projects 84 runs and 45 SBs BUT a .257 average.

I think the biggest question mark on Eric Young right now is his place in the order. He’s shown solid OBP skills in the minors (.387 and .391 last two years) that, combined with his speed, makes him a potential #1/#2 hitter this year (albeit with OBP regressing to the .340/.350 range).

These are the guys who hit #1/#2 for the Rockies last year:
Fowler (102 games)
Barmes (62 games)
Sean Smith (49 games)
Spilbourghs (35 games)
CarGo (40 games)
TuLo (~ 20 games)

Assuming they use TuLo and CarGo somewhere b/w 3rd and 5th in the order, I can definitely see Eric Young in the #1/#2 slot. My concern at this point is that Barmes is still on the roster and, at the very least, will play 40 games or so at 2B. And if Young gets only 400 ABs, he’ll still get 30 SBs but his Runs won’t look so impressive.

But I’ve definitely got EYJr. on my sleeper list now…

Question for you about a person in the early 100′s.

Eric Young Jr.

What in the 10 games he played last year (and not starting spot availabe this year) did you see to have him ranked so high??

Ahead of Ben Zobrist, Gordon Beckham, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, etc etc etc.

Should there be some guys in there that we just acknowledge that they are misplaced??

@Howie: 8 team league? MLB? You need more competition. On that note, look out for the Razzball Commenter League signups. coming soon…

I do agree that Upton at those projections is more valuable than a 32 OF with those projections given the upside. Sometimes gambling on upside is what you need to win a league. I tend to make my upside bets in the 2nd half of drafts vs. the 1st half though.

CHONE just isn’t build for projected PAs. That’s why I’ll just apply the PA rates to a different PA source like Baseball Prospectus.

I took a look at J-Up’s CHONE projections after I commented and , a slight regression in every stat from last year. Which is certainly possible, but it’s more likely we see a progression, and I think it’s worth paying for the upside. My philosophy last year was that I’d rather be a year early on J-Up than a year late – as good as he was last year, I think there’s room for improvement and I guess I’d rather overpay for 73/22/72/13/.296 than miss out on that. As for BJ, 40-50 seems okay to me, I just thought it was interesting that he was ranked ahead of his bro.

Longo’s PS appear to be hurt by the projected PAs as well. I see no reason to think he won’t see around as many as Pujols, yet Albert’s projected to get about 100 more (as is Jeff Francouer strangely.) I would imagine the CHONE projections will normalize as we get closer to April.

@brad: Yes on Vazquez – CHONE projects him at modest ERA/WHIP (3.83/1.22) but 14 Wins and 182 Ks in CHONE ranks 3rd (Halladay – 16, CC – 15) and 6th respectively.

Interesting catch on the Uptons. BJ gets his greatest value in 40 projected SBs. Justin Upton’s stats are just average to slightly above average across the board: 73/22/72/13/.296. Note that this is with 511 PAs / 456 ABs which is on the low side in my opinion.

Longoria – yes, surprising, especially b/c he finished #24 on PS last year.

Hill – His stats look pretty good in CHONE but I think his PS are hurt b/c he brings no speed (-0.9 PS) to a position where 6 of the top 7 are projected at 12+ SBs (and SBs are about a point in the standings for every 10 SBs).

Francouer – Disregard. He’s projected at 631 PAs which spikes up his R/HR/RBI. He’s lucky to get 500 PAs (which, for him, means 495 ABs).

CHONE must like Vazquez in NY more than I do. #23 and $28 seems pretty high.

BJ Upton about 30 spots and $5 higher than Justin.

Evan Longoria way down at 64.

Aaron Hill 110 just above Francoeur. Ouch.