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We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2010 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2010 Mariners Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Lookout Landing.

1)  I’m actually pretty high on David Aardsma.  Others, not so much.  Lots of people are predicting a regression of sorts.  Which side do you fall on?

I like Aardsma, and I like that the M’s were able to recognize his potential and land him for nothing. With that said, while I expect him to remain a pretty good reliever, you have to expect some regression. I mean, you have to, right? He had one of the most extreme flyball rates in baseball and somehow only managed to allow four home runs. That’s not gonna last, especially when you keep in mind all the balls to the track he surrendered. Safeco and the defense will help him, but I could easily see his HR rate doubling. Best case, he survives the season looking only a little worse. More likely, he starts making people a little nervous, and there end up being whispers about Brandon League. With the fly balls and the walks, Aardsma kind of lives on the edge.

2)  I forget where I read it, but someone (I think it was a person, might’ve been a robot) said a great thing about Milton Bradley.  I’m paraphrasing — shoot, I can’t even remember where I read it — notice the Mariner fans’ excitement the day after the Mariners got Milton Bradley.  A year ago, the Cubs fans were excited about Bradley too. At one point, the Rangers were excited about Bradley.  The Padres were excited.  And so on.  Yet, it never ends well.  How will the Milton Bradley era in Seattle end?  What do you see from him this year?

I’d say it ended fairly well in Texas and Oakland, and San Diego has nothing but nice things to say about him. But anyway, it’s important to recognize the difference in environment in Chicago vs. Seattle. Here we don’t have that media, that manager, and those fans. Here we have Junior. If any situation is right for Bradley, it’s this one. I don’t expect him to remain perfectly healthy, and he’s not going to be a source of major power, but there’s no reason why he can’t end up at or around his career averages barring a mental meltdown. Better real-life player than fantasy player, probably.

3)  F-Her, Cliff Lee — Sweet!  Then what?  Give me what you think the Mariners rotation will be.

Obviously, everyone focuses on the 1-2, for good reason. Behind the two aces, we’ll go with Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell, and one of Jason Vargas/Doug Fister/Luke French/Garrett Olson. That’s the four-man competition taking place right now in Arizona. You’re a fantasy site, right? In that case, the only one of these guys worth considering is RRS, as he’s poised to take wonderful advantage of the ballpark and the defense yet again. If Jarrod Washburn can do what he did in 2009, RRS could, too. You can keep your eye on Snell, I suppose, but I’d keep an eye from afar.

4) We have our own thoughts on Verducci, but he did flag Felix Hernandez.  You have any concerns or would you like to tell Verducci where to shove his flag?

I actually discussed this very topic here on my own site.  (Note from Grey:  That’s actually a great article about Verducci that I think everyone should read.)  Bottom line: Verducci’s heart is in the right place, but his analysis is flawed, and the people who’ve investigated his theory haven’t uncovered an effect. So there’s no evidence that there’s anything to this. I will always be a little worried about Felix, but that’s because pitching is dangerous, and he’s my baby. I don’t think we have any reason to believe that his 2009 workload will have a negative impact on his 2010 performance.

5) If the Mariners GM, Jack Zduriencik, started an office fantasy baseball league, what would be the most non-traditional fantasy stat? A) UZR B) Speed to first C) Pitcher First Pitch Strikes D) FRAGU — Fielding Runs Against Glove Upside E) BABIP@SLVSAERLP – Batting Average for Balls In Play @ Sea Level vs. Arbitration-Eligible Replacement-Level Players

Probably OBP. Z isn’t a stats guy. Z is just smart enough to hire stats guys. If Tony Blengino started the pool, though, then we’re talking acronyms with things that aren’t even letters anymore.

  1. Frank Rizzo says:
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    This is carryover from the prior posting…….As a 5th OF, would you rather carry Rasmus, Sean-Rod, or CoJack? All 3 have had dynamite ST’s so far. Rasmus/CoJack both batting in the 2 hole, Sean is 9th. CoJack feels safe to me but Rasmus could pay higher dividends and Sean is a wildcard. Undecided.

  2. GTS says:
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    I’m going to keep 3 of these guys: Rollins, Votto, BJ-UP, Adam Jones, Manny…

    I should be able to get Grady and Morneau if they aren’t kept… if that’s the case which 3 which you keep?

  3. GTS says:
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    10-team C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF x 3, UTIL x 2, pitchers

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GTS: Votto, Rollins and Upton

  5. JP says:
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    Great to be back for the season, hope all has been well Grey. Curious about your thoughts on some stuff:

    Would you drop Markakis for J. Upton?Hype surrounding Upton makes me question if he will be ‘that’ much better than Markakis…

    Did I make a boo boo by dropping Strasburg for Fausto Carmona?

    I have Austin Jackson riding the bench and Garrett Jones is still available-should I let him ride it instead?

    Are you as down on Real World DC as I am??

  6. @Grey:

    In the RCL league I ended up with a team with crappy speed, its roto so should I just wait til some speed schmohawks get released down the road or try and trade now to balance it out? I’m figuring it doesn’t really matter if I’m deficient early on if I can make that up later. I shoulda picked up a speed OF or MI but there were going off the board in rounds that I couldn’t stomach. Rajai Davis and Al Escobar in r13 just doesn’t interest me when theres other holes.

  7. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Elijah: You can make up speed later on, no reason to trade for it.

  8. Pending transaction of Tulo/Rasmus/DeRosa for Furcal/Rios/Chipper. Fair deal? Whose advantage? Thanks!

  9. @Grey:

    Thanks, just double checking. By the way, Iannetta in a platoon sounds really crappy for fantasy. Jake Fox as getting C eligability playing backup catcher in Oak sounds good tho to me?

  10. Matt B says:
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    In a 12-team mixed 5×5 weekly h2h 1-win (thats a mouthful) where SPs have big value, is Hamels enough for my Reynolds? I’m thin at SP, rich at 1B/3B. He also has Josh Johnson but I’m thinking he values him above Hamels.

  11. Matt B says:
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    keeper too

  12. Mickey says:
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    Rather roster Joba for help in ratios and K’s now that he is back in pen or Adams for speculative saves when/if Bell gets traded?

    And when do you think Bell gets traded?

    I hear they are scouting him pretty hard.

  13. Mickey says:
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    damn not edit, meant to say the twins are scouting him.

  14. Terrence Mann says:
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    Grey, you didn’t answer my question at the end of your Friends and Family blog. Why did you take Carlos Lee over Pac Man?

  15. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @JP: What kind of crazy-world upside-down league has Markakis as droppable and Upton as available?

    Are you in a league all by yourself?

    @TheWorld: Speaking of crazy-upside-downness, I’m calling Ian Snell as a sleeper right here. Seattle’s defense made a star of Jarrod Washburn, for crying out loud. This year, Snell the glove.

  16. JP says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: What I meant was if offered Upton for Markakis in a trade, would it be wise to accept or reject the offer.

  17. KarlJ. says:
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    @JP:
    Yes definitely- Upton’s downside is probably Markakis numbers and his upside is MVP numbers

  18. @JP:

    You gotta go with Upton’s upside potential…have you actually watched this kid play much? I can’t remember anyone hitting the ball harder at any age, and hes got speed like an NFL RB. He could be a top 10 player in baseball very soon. Markakis is solid but doesn’t have that level of talent.

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @JP: Hey, good to see you again. Why would you drop Markakis? Like to waivers? Nope. I don’t like Carmona. Grab Jones. The new Real World made the same mistake as the Brooklyn one. They wanted people to chase their careers, but other than comic book guy none of them have careers. Losing the job they work at together seems to remove a vital piece of the chaotic puzzle. And when did the show become 8 strangers? It’s 7, no? I did like that guy who was singing was terrible. And what’s up with a girl who wants to be a singer but says being on MTV is no opportunity so she leaves?

    @zombie: Tulo side

    @Elijah: Fox is not an every day player either.

    @Matt B: Hamels is enough.

    @Mickey: Adams, maybe soon on Bell.

    @Terrence Mann: I felt I needed safety over better/upside.

    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Ha!

    @JP: Oh, I’d want Upton.

  20. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey:

    Makes sense. I wondered if that was part of it. There was enough risk in the Reyes pick.

  21. JP says:
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    @KarlJ.: @Elijah:

    I understand completely but although everyone is expecting 30/30/.300 I’m afraid he will level out to more of a 20/25/.280, as his minor league numbers indicate..in that regard, it would be like trading markakis for abreu or mclouth

  22. mickey says:
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    How soon does H. Bell get traded? If at all.

    And is Adams the man?

  23. John says:
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    word of reimold platooning with pie has me double thinking my util spot in a 14 team league who would you rather have for util:

    Ever Cab, Rasmus, Headley, Con Jackson
    Thanks

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @JP: Yeah, and Markakis could be 20/5.

    @mickey: Just answered this, right?

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @John: Depends on need, guys bring different things. In a vacuum, Rasmus.

  26. Rizzo says:
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    5×5 non keeper roto league, which SS- Desmond, Theriot, or Everth Cabrera??

  27. Terrence Mann says:
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    Seeing the Reimold platoon imminent, would you drop Reimold for Fowler?

  28. timSTi says:
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    @Grey: 10 tm 5×5 roto 7 keepers.

    MY: Lester, Alcides Escobar, Crush Davis

    HIS: Rollins & De La Rosa

    My pitching staff is currently Lester, Nolasco, Baker, Cueto, E.Santana, Sanchez, Correia, GioGonzalez.

    Rest of my team is:
    Montero, Pujols, Phillips, *Rollins*, Youkilis, Stewart, G.Jones, Kemp, Cruz, Quentin, Pence, Bruce, Snider

  29. Panti Jose says:
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    Grey, thanks for the response on Ian Kennedy. Who would you drop out of padilla, richard, jaime garcia and homer bailey to pick him up? thanks again and good luck this year.

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Can wait a few days if you need power, if not, go for it.

    @timSTi: Eh, not crazy about it.

  31. BaboonHeart says:
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    @Baron Vonvulturewins: I was kust cayin’ that to my boy the other day.

    @everyone: Drew Stubbs or Austin Jackson? OBP counts. Bill James loves them both and Jackson seems to be getting better every day.

  32. timSTi says:
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    @Grey: re:”Eh, not crazy about it” … Care to elaborate a little? I know my pitching staff takes a blow but I still like my team a lot. Especially having Pujols, Phillips, Rollins, Youk as an IF in a 7 keeper league.

  33. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @JP: That makes more sense (the trade-not-drop thing).

    Don’t use J-Up’s minor league record as an indicator. J-Up was, like, 18 in the minor leagues.

    His career trajectory so far closely follows v. similar player, K. Griffey Jr. In season 3, K. Griffey Jr put up MVP numbers.

    J-Ups is not that much of a risk this year.

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @BaboonHeart: Jackson

    @timSTi: You have two starters and upside, losing Lester might kill your staff. You’re trading Davis when he’s at his lowest. If he hits in April, you can get a lot more for him. Don’t think the trade helps your team as much as it hurts it. It’s fair though, if you like the trade for you, make it. It’s your team.

    ******THERE’S A NEW POST FOR FOLLOWUPS FOR ME.******

  35. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    Heads up… Kyle Blanks +6.5% owned at ESPN today (total now 40.5%). If you’re planning on scooping him up to replace Reimold (as I am in one league), the window to do so may have begun closing.

  36. Tom Reale says:
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    I have both EverCab and Escobar hoping one of them will pan out…I just noticed F Morales in the FA pool…drop one of the SS for Morales?

  37. BaboonHeart says:
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    @Awesomus: Blanks = NL ROY

  38. fellas, apparently one of the guys in my razzball commenter league dropped (league 14)! we’re drafting thursday at 9 pm eastern. need one ASAP! email me: johnmurn@gmail.com

    it’s a 12 team standard rotisserie.

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