I wish I could use code names for the players above in case my trading partner is also reading your most worthy blog. But that would only confuse you as well…so…

I remain, explicitly,

A Faithful Reader

Have done 50+ mocks this off season. My problem with grabbing players that “fall” to me is that every time I do that I end up losing more ranks than if I “substitute” a prepared backup. I will end up with too many sluggers, or speedsters, and fall several spots for that lagging category without gaining in much in the other cat.

Am prepared for pitfalls of draft, and season, not going to expectations. It’s base-a-ball and I’m lovin’ it!

Among my many leagues, I was in an RCL league as well, and ended up tied for first. I don’t have it in front of me, but as I recall, in that league, I didn’t draft any pitchers until around the 10th round, but drafted six SAGNOF closers. Predictably, I dominated hitting categories, and sucked in pitching categories, besides saves. I always draft pitching late, but in this draft, hitters who I like kept falling to my draft position, so I kept nabbing them. Too long and boring to explain here, so I won’t try.

Anyway, I’m always looking for the edge, too, thus my interest in your dialogue, but I think gut has a lot to do with it, and taking what the draft gives you, and fixing it later, is the other side. Plus, a big dose of luck. Anyway, I’ve been enjoying your dialogues as a lurker, and just wanted to weigh in briefly.

At guess at the end of the day is that no matter how hard you try to get it perfect, the season always unfolds, and it’s always not quite what you expect.

RE: strategy. We have two heads to our Dragon, Grey and Rudy, who agree to disagree on occasion. And, really, when I look back at RCL team successes last year, I see some teams that drafted starting pitching high, some hitting high, ….

Know that I just am programmed to give it my all to gain every little bit of perceived advantage going in, so that when the injuries/etc. hit, I am as well positioned as the next guy to survive. (I know I’m not alone in this endeavor.)

Grey, is a master at evaluating a bunch of those factors that you talked about–seemingly without thinking about it, on the cuff.

I have to spend hours viewing stats to feel as if I am anywhere close to understanding a given set of nuances. Thanks, again.

Although, I do not approve of this two headed creature known as the SabeanBochy. If only Noah had chucked it over board like he did the Unicorn…

I don’t have access to last year’s ADP. How far was the drop from Nathan to Jenks? All I am saying is that if you take the same drop from a SP who was drafted at Nathan’s level and drop to one at Jenk’s level you will get more than one point drop for ERA and WHIP, estimating that the drop in each will be the same but it will be magnified because the number of innings pitched is greater for the starter. Or, the drop in a hitter at the same levels, will result in more points lost.

In order to demonstrate I would have to look at ADPs and corresponding players from last year.

a) Ryan Zimmerman in the 3rd round.
b) Wandy Rodriguez in the 15th round.

Thanks!

@Steve: Noooo!!!

According to Gammons at mlb.com, Joey Devine is healthy again…

btw, here’s an interesting tidbit about the Giants:

They have the 2nd best win/loss percentage in the history of all 30 teams! Who would’ve thought huh? Second to only, yup you guessed it, the Yankees.

1) David Wright, Adam Lind, Curtis Granderson, and Nelson Cruz

or

2) Ryan Zimmerman Justin Upton, Adam Lind, and Curtis Granderson

Overall, Grey and James are very similar. CHONE is about -10% below them, and more eratic. In my estimation, CHONE is by far the least favorable with regard to projecting 5X5 roto.

Example, for Grey’s first mock, Grey’s projections and James’ both place him #2 in that 12-teamer. CHONE places him #7.

@royce!: Yeah, the weather is lousy in LA. Wide variance in rookie pitcher projections because they’re really hard to predict. That’s what makes them risky in fantasy too.

It’s pouring rain and I am clearly bored.

I’ll probably draft him in the last couple rounds if he’s still there, which I suppose depends on how he performs in Spring Training.